Zowpeb
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Posts posted by Zowpeb
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You can't just use the $ paid to other players or points and +/- stats alone to find a comparable. You need to factor in when the contract was signed.
As an example, Bogosian plays no where near the minutes, or has the same quality of matchups that PK has. YOu can point to PK's relatively low plus rating, but you also need to factor in just how bad the habs were last year.
IMO the best comparables to PK from your list are Myers and Hedman. I'd add letang to that list, but you have to factor in when his contract was signed and going forward his conussion baggage.
Vlasic signed this summer for 5 years $21m...he's more then $3.5m per now...
I think you need to put forward a few more reasons why Myers and Hedman are better comparables. You look like you are just ignoring the other guys because they don't make your case. Hedman and Myers were also both high first round picks so they started off with higher entry level salaries and, since future salaries rarely go down, it's no surprise their current pay is slightly higher.
Bogosian, Edler and Vlasic all played pretty equal minutes to Subban give or take.
All were providing similar offensive production.
Argue about whose better defensively all you want...I'm okay with Subban defensively but he makes some doozy mistakes sometimes...but thus far I figure that's just youthful exuberance.
Not sure where all these guys relative to when they become UFA but I'm pretty sure Edler and Vlasic are entering the last year of their RFA status. Bogosian has one more year in the league then Subban I believe...and of course Bogosian also was a top 1st round pick with the initially higher entry level deal/expectation.
Based on comparables (production, TOI, career GP, past contract levels, etc) I could easily see Subban getting closer to $3M/per on a shorter term deal...say 2 years. If they want to give him 3 years it's probably closer to $3.5M. Assuming it's not eating into UFA years (which I think is after the 3 years...but I'm not 100% sure).
If he gets over $4M it's a brutal deal IMHO.
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Well, see Commandant's point about inflation. $4 mil makes perfect sense. The difference, to my mind, is that Price at 3.5 felt like a bit of a risk for those who were nervous about Price's uneven development tragectory. 3.5 for PK feels like no risk at all.
I wish fans would stop this dream of ripping off Habs players all the time. It's understandable, but not terribly reasonable from the player's point of view. Any team in hockey would pay PK Subban between 3.5 and 4 million. If we get him for less than that, we can count our lucky stars, but could also legitimately be uneasy about souring the milk.
Couple things...
I don't buy into the concept of Price having an uneven development history...the kid has excelled at every level he's played in, including the NHL, when that contract was being written. I think you paid too much attention to the critics and not enough to the kids history of performance.
Yes, any team would be happy to sign Subban at that price BUT he's an RFA so they don't have his rights and know fully well that the Habs would match. So he won't get an offer sheet at that level...the only way someone puts an offer sheet to him is if they do it at a level that the Habs MAY not match...which would likely mean they'd have to push the $5.5M level. Offer sheets are like the moment in a poker game when you force your opponent to look across the table and decide if they want to go all in.
From the Habs perspective they don't need to go anywhere near that unless someone drives them with an offer sheet...so they offer fair value, for current performance, or maybe slightly more if they want to lock him up to multiple years. That's the way the RFA system is designed.
There are only a few rogue GM's that play the offer sheet game on a regular basis. The rest honour what is effectively the unwritten code of "don't touch mine and I won't touch yours".
So if this is a 1-2 year deal it's going to be under $3.5M. If it's a 3-4 year deal it's probably going to be $3.5 to $4M. If it's 5-6 years then it's $4M+ depending on how/if it eats into his UFA status...definitely harder to predict the level at that length, plus I'm too lazy to look up when he can qualify as a UFA.
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I apparently have higher hopes then some of you with Leblanc...I don't think he was as far along the development curve as some thought before making the move to Hamilton but that doesn't mean he's nothing more then a checking line C (albeit a good one if you think he's got 20 goal potential).
One thing I did want to address...Kris Draper was incredibly overrated. He was a good checking C that happened to play on a team with a very good top 6, very good D and good goaltending. That's it...let's all take a deep breath and stop sugar coating the checking line guys...unless you want to sound like a Leaf fan. And, since his name was mentioned somewhere, Kirk Maltby was garbage that must have had dirty photo's of management...and I'm being serious, I don't know how that guy got into the NHL. There are dozens of guys in competitive mens leagues with more talent...seriously the guy only had more then 24 points TWICE in a 16 year career (he was also a minus 8 of those years and was not a fighter at all)...how the !@#$ does that happen?
I still believe Leblanc has a chance to become a legit top 6 NHL calibre player in the right situation. Not sure the Habs are the right fit for him based on how their roster might shake out but he's got 1 to 2 years to try and carve out top line minutes in Hamiltion...so hopefully he can push his way into the mix at the NHL level.
I'm surprised that no one is saying that his ceiling is close to Plekanec...good 2 way C with 70 point ability and the potential to play on the PP and PK. Key word being ceiling.
If the Habs had a legit number 1 C then Pleks would be one of the better 2nd line C's in the league (and no, DD is not, and never will be that guy; like the aforementioned love of the grinders you all want the underdog to succeed). Would also allow a guy like Pleks to be more effective on special teams where he can excel. I think/hope Leblanc still has a chance to be Pleks replacement in 2-3 years...also when Galy hopefully becomes that legit number 1 C.
Before someone flames me on DD I'll simply say that I think he's a good 2nd line C on an average team...and looks like a he could be a #1 on a bad team.
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I don't buy many of the arguments about rushing guys. The only way you can rush a guy is
1) he's not physically mature enough, muscular enough, to handle the pounding and gets injured.
2) he's not getting enough minutes to develop his game.
As long as the kid is physically ready, and is contributing to the team and gets meaningful minutes...
You can't mentally wreck a kid, I don't buy that for a second.
- no matter when you call a kid up, he's gonna have good stretches and bad stretches... if mentally he falls apart after a bad stretch at 19, he's gonna fall apart after a bad stretch at 25, all you are doing is delaying the inevitable. A mentally strong person will overcome the challenge, a mentally weak one won't but would have fallen apart later if you shelter them anyways.
How can the kid get meaningful minutes at C with DD, Pleks and Eller there?
Without a good answer to this you don't bring him up and shuffle him around positions, line-mates and minutes all season.
In Montreal that is a recipe to having fans and media calling him a bust...if you think a 19 year old is as mentally mature as a 25 year old, or even a 23 year old, you are crazy.
Coming back to play in the playoffs is no comparison to playing them after a full regular season...even in junior.
I'm all for challenging a prospect to overcome adversity and face fresh challenges...but they also need to be attainable goals...how can he attain good goals in Montreal with Pleks, DD and Eller getting top 3 C minutes and the media calling him a bust after his first 20 games...and unless he puts up 15 points they WILL be doing that.
Hell, people already want our coach fired...lol...
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I think you let the kid play in the minors, maybe give him the proverbial 5-10 game cup of tea at the start, and evaluate how you want to move forward with Pleks, DD and Eller for the following season...maybe deal one of them at the deadline or next off-season to move up the draft board. Not to mention potentially using assets like Cole for the same...
The Habs too often rush prospects...here's a great young prospect, likely one of the best in the draft, who missed almost an entire season and people want to see him on the Habs out of the gate. Seriously, let the kid play in the minors to develop physically, mentally and work on things like face-offs, defensive schemes, one on one moves, etc...in an environment without the media pressure.
As much as people don't want to hear it, the Habs are going to continue to re-build despite a great draft. I hate the partial re-builds that we get stuck in because the fans can't put up with 2 bad seasons...so we get 20 years of middle of the pack.
The team had what appears to be a great draft...and hopefully a few of the kids drafted in rounds 2 through 7 develop.
They need another draft that gets a high end forward in the top 5...
If they can do that while maintaining the core...hold on to guys like Subban, Price, Pacioretty, Gorges, Pleks, etc...they'll have virtually re-built within 2 years (granted even the high picks might need a couple years to develop...but they'd be real exciting quickly) with a system of youth that will keep them competitive for years after.
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I could see Edmonton and Columbus both trading down fairly easily...would be nice to get one of those without giving up our 1st...
I'd deal all 3 2nd round picks, a d-man (Markov?) and a prospect like Kristo (that caliber anyways). Edmonton needs NHL ready D help and to maintain a continual core of good prospects for future years to compete. Not sure Markov would pass the smell test given the injuries but who knows...maybe Kaberle?
Edmonton gets to pick 31, 34, 44 and 54...and can easily package some of those to move back up the board. Maybe even get back into the top 12 if they wanted.
We draft the best 2 forwards...2 potential stars we've lacked at forward for a LONG TIME.
If the kids stumble you trade guys like Cole and Gionta next deadline to acquire more picks, use those for more trading up, get more top flight talent and you've rebuilt in essentially one season...while also hopefully finding ways to clear out some burdensome salaries (ie. Gomez et al)...and then using that space on a couple good UFA's to fill needs that become apparent from where the drafts take you.
Easy as that right?
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The only thing I wonder with that is does the Detroit owner need money? He just felt comfortable shelling out over $200 million for Prince Fielder so the ownership must have the money. The point is, opening up the vault probably wouldn't work...not to mention the possible lawsuit to follow for talking to an executive that the Wings didn't allow permission for the Habs to speak with.
Oh, I get that Detroit may not want or let the Habs talk to him...I was more referring to opening the vault if they got permission.
Not sure what it would take to get that permission and I suspect money would have little to do with it. Often teams give permission to talk to guys when there is an opportunity for that persons career advancement...not really the case with Holland since he's also the Executive VP.
Don't ask, don't get...
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FInd a way to get Ken Holland to come here...I want the best and I don't care that he's under contract till 2015.
Open the bank and find a way to bring in the best GM of the past decade...and arguably one of the best since expansion.
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Grigorenko has been compared to Malkin by some scouts...I want a potential 100 point C on this team...
Galchenyuk is intriguing but could easily slide to the 7th pick too.
I think Grigorenko is the odds on pick.
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They would look so good with Darvish and Fielder...would have made them contenders without giving up their highly rated farm. They'd be well positioned for the next 3-5 years with the youth to deal for other upgrades or trade other assets to make room as needed.
AA should have made huge pushes for those 2 additions. Even overpaying would have left them with a relatively manageable payroll of around $115m...good for around 10th highest in the league...
We'd probably be talking about them as contenders for the next 3-5 years.
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Bob Mackenzie but I guess he is just another Habs homer,
#RF
I think MacKenzie is a great analyst...glad to hear he is also high on Moen's ability. Not sure he's among the best bottom 6 on the market but only because I don't honestly know how many are openly on "the market"...I'll trust in MacKenzie's contacts and analysis. Having said that, the trade deadline market is still developing...
The rumoured return on Ruutu is a late 1st round pick or blue chip prospect...IF that's true do people still think Moen is worth a 2nd round pick?
Moen is a good PK specialist and very good 4th line player...and average 3rd liner. The problem is the inflated expectations of Moen's value. I'll be the first to slag PG for his performance as a GM but I wouldn't slag him for getting a 4th round pick on Moen since that's probably what his value is...a 3rd rounder would be an above average return IMHO. If PG can snake a 2nd round pick and Ruutu gets dealt for a 1st round pick I'd say PG finally made a great deal and then ask why we didn't get in on a deal for Ruutu...lol.
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You have to understand that there's no such thing as a player being worth x.
When you consider the trade deadline, and a team having a need, and having to compete with other teams for that need since their goal is the Stanley Cup, there will be an inflation of value.
Travis Moen is a bottom six player under the age of 30 who is a tough guy to play against and is exceptionally smart in shutting a player down, reversing a line momentum or playing the corners. He's one of the highest valued bottom six forwards in the NHL, especially after being a pivotal reason in the Ducks Stanley Cup win only a few seasons ago. Again, he's not even 30 years old.
Teams like the Sharks and Blackhawks can see long-term value in acquiring him, especially for his PK abilities. These are teams that desperately need a guy like Moen and if Gauthier doesn't make them pay for it, he'll just be exercising his uselessness.
Who says he's one of the highest valued bottom six forwards? His value is ultimately what someone is willing to pay...so we'll see.
However, let's be real...there are lots of 3rd and 4th line guys that are similar to Moen and get made available.
Commandant compared him to a few guys just before you...I believe, at the times of those deals, Belanger and Moore were worth more.
Sure some team might overpay if a few teams want Moen and other teams don't make similar players available...but I believe guys like Moen are often available every year. I could see a third rounder as a stretch...but he's probably valued as a fourth or fifth rounder in a normal market. JMHO. I would deal him for a third in a heartbeat...and I'd prefer we keep him if the best you can get is a fifth...
90% of Habfans,don't underestimate our players. Actually quite the opposite. I've never seen a fanbase in the 4 major sports,overestimate them as much,especially prospects.
Every teams fans do this...especially with the lunch box "workmanlike" players...Hab fans are no different.
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Wow...people think Moen is worth a 2nd round pick? I shouldn't be stunned by that but wow...
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I'd be inquiring to Winnipeg about Kane as one to target via trade...he might be falling out of favour there too. He's young, got loads of upside and plays with grit. Wouldn't be cheap but getting a kid like him, and trying to get a top 3 pick this year, should be a couple of our goals.
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I'm going to let you in on a little secret Zowpeb. Tanking is not the only way to build a team. Thankfully, the organization doesn't think like you. Go read The Cucumber's post in another thread.
I realise that it can be built otherwise...but I don't think you can build years of winning/contending without building the farm system and acquiring young, controllable talent...at least some of which is expected to be high end talent. Sorry, but in a cap driven world it's not feasible without a short term break to build and/or accelerate that process...
You can be thankful they don't think like me...but I'm disappointed we have an organization in such disarray with no vision/direction. Do you think this management team is the right group to turn this organization around...and I mean top to bottom; from player development to PR to Pro Scouting and contract management, etc. What in the world makes you think they can turn this around now without a couple of BAD seasons to help them along?
Right now the only thing I think we do well right now is draft guys who can, and do, make the NHL...only knock is missing on some of the high end guys. We can debate draft positions and how that MAY have limited us all day...but I think we do a good job finding future NHLers with mid-late round picks which is admirable.
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If this team can't dump Gomez through salary I would be eternally grateful to Molson approving his being stashed in the minors and using the cap room elsewhere...
I'd deal Cole heartbeat if he could actually net a 1st round pick and more...for the right prospect/pick returns (and a couple of salary dumps) I'd also deal Kosty, Gionta, Kaberle, Campoli, Gomez. Take back a couple of guys who are UFA's at seasons end (this or next) to balance out those parts of any deals...but the focus should be on youth as the primary returns where possible. If necessary, package together picks in the off-season to move up the draft boards the next 2 drafts.
To the Moen and Gill fanboy club...sorry but they are NOT worth as much as some of you think. I don't care that they are great PK specialists. Gill is worth more then Moen...but Moen is really not worth more then a mid-late round pick. Seriously, guys like him are all over NHL 4th lines and AHL clubs as depth...I actually like what Moen brings to the game but let's not equate that with his actual market value. Passionate fans are great but let's be rational folks. No contending team is giving up a decent pick or prospect for a guy who will likely be a 4th line player. Jebus save you if you think otherwise.
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Trade Cole and Gionta for picks? Sounds like Columbus or the Islanders to me. Thank God that's not how this team operates.
You are right...we should sit on aging veterans until their value is nothing even though the team is not going to contend without some real help.
This team will never be Columbus or the Islanders simply because we can spend money. For that reason alone the comparison isn't really valid.
I'm saying, tear it apart to re-build the farm for 1-2 years...and I mean tear it apart to try and re-build with high end talent. Then, in 1.5 years, start some UFA signings to get back to that 8th seed. Then as the, hopefully high end, youth gets to breaking the big club you up the UFA ante and try to get to "contending" status. It HAS to be better then trying to slog through into the playoffs with a couple of 60 point players and a good goalie every year...jmho.
I can live with the Tank City Habs for a couple years if I knew there was a legit plan to rebuild. I just hate this mediocre BS that mirrors teams like the Leafs of the past 30 years...the "be just good enough to get the blind fans to spend money" concept of the team...you can put a lot of pro sports franchises in that boat. I don't want the Habs to continue in this position any more. As fans we need to start demanding a legit vision and plan and then hold the organization accountable to following it...even if it means short term pain for long term gain.
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A player that's top 3 in his position becomes a UFA once every 5 to 10 years. The odds of acquiring one by trade aren't much better. You always have to wait for one of those players to suffer an injury, have an off-year, or develop a reputation for being a terrible team player before his team even considers trading him.
I think almost every team in the league struggles to get elite players and big first line centers. Having drafted Koivu, Plekanec, Ribeiro, Grabovski, Leblanc, and signing Desharnais, I think Montreal's ability to develop centers in recent years has been pretty typical or mediocre. That's four guys right there who have proven to be capable of 50-70 points in the NHL. The Habs lost two of them because they were headcases. There are exceptions but if you want an 85+ point player, your best bet is to have a terrible season. An even better bet is to have multiple terrible seasons in a row like the Pens, Hawks, and Oilers did. If you're consistently in the playoffs, you can't expect to draft better than 2nd line players. You might luck out once every 5 years but you can't expect it.
I don't buy the 5-10 year comment...top tier guys DO get moved. Debate whether they are top 3 or 4 at their position if you want...but big names do move around via trades and UFA. To not have addressed this in 2 decades is brutal. Go all the way back through the 80's, and early 90's, when 100 point seasons were quite common...how many did the Habs have? Look it up.
I agree the draft is the best way to build...but they CAN trade for prospects, high picks, etc and augment that with UFA acquisitions. We just bring in the mid tier UFA's (Cammy aside) and a bunch of 3rd, 4th line guys.
Someone needs to admit to a rebuild, stop the "retooling" BS, and BUILD the team...
Gainey was getting close with a strong farm system that only lacked 1 or 2 high end offensive talents. I actually think he was closer with that system then many realise or would admit right now. Imagine another couple guys of Pleks calibre, and MaxPacs age/controlable, to go with guys like Cole, Cammy (Bourque now obviously)...sure we might have had a bad season, or two, in the middle of this build but it'd be worth it today with a legit top 2 lines, top young goalie and likely strong top 4 D. Instead we have a broken club, mediocre farm system, mediocre cap position, etc...and the clubs answer will likely be to make a few desperation deals, overpay a few mid-tier UFA's, and try to get the 8th playoff spot yet again. Sounds like the Leafs organization...but at least Burke is moving them in a better direction (much like he fixed Gauthier's mess in Anaheim btw). God I hate the Leafs. I'd rather we suck for the rest of this season and next, traded guys like Cammy/Gionta/Cole for even more high picks and rapidly rebuild through the draft to get a young nucleus in place for Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Plekanec before they are gone too.
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That's why Leaf fans thought Domi and Tucker were stars...and why Habs fans think guys like Moen or Gill are worth big on the trade market. LOL
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It's no surprise. Elite talent is rare when you don't pick in the top 10 of the draft. The only high pick Montreal's had in in years was Price and he turned out to be the cornerstone of the franchise. Finding Pacioretty and Subban in the late first and second respectively was a nice bonus but if you want an 85+ point center (there are what, 5-10 in the league?), you aren't likely to find one without a top 10 pick. This season they'll get a golden opportunity to turn their organization upside down. They need to draft one of those NHL ready stars that have been becoming more common in recent years. If they mess up this pick, they're screwed.
I hear what your saying but its been 20 odd years since we had a C of that caliber...and you could argue a lot longer since 85 point C's in the late 80's early 90's were a pretty easy find. The organization hasn't had a legit superstar since Roy or a legit superstar forward (let alone C)!since god only knows...by superstar I mean legit top tier talent - top 3 in their position give or take.
Its not just homegrown talent...we could have signed those UFA's or traded for a player of that quality. I realise you can win without a real star but more often then not teams have either a couple top players or a glut of stars just under that tier.
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I get graduating a lot of youth the past few years but we have very few quality prospects...our system depth projects poorly too. Given where we've performed in recent years its hard to consider this even an average system.
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I have a Canon and love it...very user friendly for amateur use.
Lots of lens options including both Canon and aftermarket lenses.
As for quality on every SLR it is about the lens. Both Canon and Nikon are good in body and lens options. Can't go wrong with either...
My advice is to get a decent body and spend on the lenses...if you really enjoy it then upgrade the body in a few years. I still use my Canon XSI body and it's still great...and they've had around 3 generational upgrades since...IIRC...
Wouldn't worry about video a whole lot...if you want that buy a camcorder or even a compact camera (which do have some decent video at a fraction of the price).
Definitely invest in a good comfortable bag that has easy access and is comfortable to carry for hours. You do NOT want the standard kit bag on your shoulder for 6 hours...may not seem like much but throw 8 pounds of stuff on your shoulder for hours on end and you'll buy a bag the next day.
Also buy good, fast, memory to ensure you can use all camera functions optimally.
Be prepared to spend $1200 for a solid beginner set (2 lenses, body, bag, memory). Secondary upgrades are filters, flash upgrades and specialty or high end lenses, maybe a tripod or unipod.
You also may want to consider a compact SLR...smaller, lighter and you can change lenses...I don't have one but was impressed with some at the store recently. They seem to be gaining popularity...
I bought at Blacks using price match...they also throw in a cleaning, a whack of free prints and a free training class for your camera. Pretty good extras considering they price matched a very low price from Vistek. Those extras are standard offers from them still I believe...
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I think its criminally underrating what Plekanec has done for this team. Sure he's having a bad year, but he has 69 and 70 pt years before. I dont think Desharnais is gonna get to that. Hell Desharnais has been playing with the two best wingers all season, and has 2 pts more than Pleks.
Agreed. I don't buy that he's the best offensive C in years...was only commenting on Stream's post.
And for what its worth...it's also sad to say Pleks might be the best C in years.
Frankly it's sad we haven't had an 85 point C since when?? Hell, name the last 100 point Hab...how sad is that? I can live with good balanced teams like the last 2 cup winners but we rarely even get that these days...
I may sound like a pessimist lately but we don't have much to be excited about other then 3 things: Price, Subban and MaxPac...Even the farm system looks only okay...Sure Beaulieu, LeBlanc look like they good be good and maybe Kristo and Tinordi...after that it's sketchy. This was a top 5 farm system for years until recently...shouldn't we be better today and how did it become a bottom 6 farm team if we weren't exactly winning (and thus drafting late). Not actually looking for reasons, I know how/why...just venting...
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I like DD but it's really sad that he's considered the best offensive C in years...just saying...
Subban
in Habs & Hockey Talk
Posted
It's not silly at all...Taylor Hall was the #1 pick overall and jumped directly into the NHL. There is a big difference between these two players. Comparing the players and their situation is, frankly, pretty ridiculous.
There is NO REASON to pay Subban over $4M. Period. They have NO REASON to pay him huge dollars because he MIGHT live up to being a $6M/year player. If he lives up to that level then you pay him to that level. GM's who pay for MAYBE are doomed to failure because they lock up salary in some players that don't fully pan out as expected. If the RFA structure was not as it is currently and he was free to sign on the open market then sure, he's probably worth more then $4M...but unless someone signs him to a big offer sheet why would you ever want to pay more then the system allows. It's just bad cap management and bad business to do otherwise.
As for Karlsson...he's 1 year younger and while their offense has been similar from their first 2 seasons that means something at their young age. The fact that Karlsson won the Norris is a pretty big deal in the salary discussions...just sayin'...Subban doesn't have that leverage in negotiations. Perhaps most importantly, Subban didn't just have a 78 point season to leverage in his salary negotiation...kind of a big deal no? You'd have to be off your rocker to give Subban Karlsson money before Subban puts up a similar performance.