I don't think it's right to include deadline acquisitions and use their season totals to back up your case.
I'd only use what they did as a Leaf, in which case:
Perrault - 2 G, 3 A, 5 P
Green - 0 G, 0 A, 0 P
Peca - 4 G, 11 A, 15 P
O'Neil - 20 G - 22 A - 42 P
Total - 26 G - 36 A - 62 P
Blake points last year - 40 G - 29 A - 69
Either by my interpretation or yours... one player coming in and (potentially) replacing the offensive production of 4 players? That's an improvement in that any points gotten by the other 3 players replacing the 3 vacated are a bonus.
Raycroft set a team record for wins with a lesser offense and the same defense. Even a mild improvement in nets with Toskala is scary with that in mind.
I think the Leafs will surprise a lot of people, except Toronto fans of course. Toronto fans will be upset the Leafs won't finish 1st, and will yet again finish the year without a cup.