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Peter Puck

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Everything posted by Peter Puck

  1. Looks like there was a rush to judgement here. The OHL suspended 4 players for actions during that game (only 3 suspensions for the brawl after the OT goal) but Florian Xhekaj was not punished (other than his game misconduct).
  2. 1) 36-39-3-4 = 79 pts 2) 8th in the Atlantic 3) 26th in the league 4) 4 players score 20 goals 5) 82 points for Suzuki (was going to put 80 points but lets see him as a point/game player)
  3. To me, it was clear that last year there was little reason to work on our power play. It was bad because the system was bad but it helped the tank a lot. St. Louis wanted to work on fundamentals which take time to learn and are more important than the PP. He wanted to maximize improving 5 on 5 play which the players will need to master before we can be competitive. When we are competitive we can spend time working on running the PP. Until then a weak PP will continue to help the tank while at the same time allowing the young players to develop. I'm not convinced that working on the PP will be a priority this year either.
  4. The 18th Annual HabsWorld Regular Season prediction contest. Hall of Fame: 2006-2007 Jean won with a prediction of 92 points when the Habs finished the year with 90 pts. If only we could have won that last game. 2007-2008 Adirondack Bud exactly predicted our final total of 104 pts. 2008-2009 Zowpeb won by predicting a strong start followed by a slower 2nd half ending with 99 points. The Habs finished the season in 8th place with 93 points. On September 22, 2008 Zowpeb predicted "I think we'll see a rough patch just past the mid-year point..." Wow! 2009-2010 Joelassister correctly predicted the Habs would finish with 88 points. Honourable mention to kaos who predicted a season record of 39-34-9 (87 pts) while the Habs finished 39-33-10. 2010-2011 Chips produced the all time best prediction. His preseason prediction of 44-30-8 for 96 pts 6th in the East, 14th in the NHL was exactly correct in every aspect. That amazing feat will be hard to duplicate. Honourable mentions went to Seb whose excellent prediction of 44-30-8 for 96 pts. 5th in east, 13th in NHL came up just short; and to Peter Puck who also correctly predicted the Habs would finish with 96 points. 2011-2012 sakiqc Our fearless leader won with his prediction of 37-34-11 for 85 points. The Habs record was 31-35-16 for 78 points. Honourable mention went to Habsfan who correctly predicted that the Habs would score 212 goals. 2012-2013 illWill won by predicting the Habs would finish with a record of 27-16-5 for 59 points. The Habs finished 29-14-5 for 63 points. Honourable mention to PMAC and to former champion Chips who both predicted the Habs to finish with 58 points. 2013-2014 Meller93 exactly predicted the Habs final record 46-28-5-3. Honourable mention to thehabbit who correctly predicted the Habs final point total and just missed getting their record exactly right. 2013-2014 nihliz predicted 50-23-5-4 for 109 points. In fact the Habs finished the season 50-22-5-5 for 110 points. Honourable mentions went to nhfarberwho predicted 49-23-4-6 for 108 points and to sakiqc who predicted 51-26-1-4 for 107 points 2015-2016 Chris predicted 40-30-8-4 for 92 points. The injury ridden Habs finished the season 38-38-3-3 for 82 points. 2016-2017 The Habs finished the regular season 47-26-7-2 for 103 points. Using tie breakers: thehabbit had the winning prediction when he predicted 47-25-5-5 = 104 pts and Honourable mentions to kaos and Bluecross. kaos predicted 46-26-6-4 = 102 pts BlueKross predicted 46-24-6-4 =102 pts. 2017-2018 The Habs finished the regular season 29-40-7-6 for 71 points. All the predictions were bad but the least bad was by Dalhabs who won by predicting 42-30-6-4 = 94 pts. 2018-2019 The Habs finished the regular season 44-30-8 for 96 points and 246 goals. The prediction contest came down to the last game of the season, indeed down to the number of goals scored in that game. The winner was BCHabnut predicted 42-27-6-7 (97 points) and crucially 248 goals. Honourable mentions go to: Dalhabs 42-30-6-4 (94 points) and illWill 42-29-7-4 (95 points) 243 goals. 2019-2020 The Habs finished the pandemic season 31-31-9 for 71 points in 71 games. The winner was illWill predicted 39-36-2-5 (85 points). Honourable mention to: tomh009 who predicted 0-0-0-82. Unfortunately for posterity tomh009 also predicted 40-32-10 2021 Season The Habs finished the season 24-21-8-3 for 59 points in the North Division in 56 games. Habsfan84 won by predicting 27-22-3-4 for 61 points. Like every entry his prediction overestimated the Habs final points. Habsfan84 also correctly predicted the Habs would get to the 2nd round but thought they would lose there instead of making the Stanley Cup final. 2022 Season The Montreal Canadiens compiled a regular season record 22-49-7-4 for 55 points. Almost duplicating the points from their cup final year of 2021 but finishing 32nd in the league. DalHabs predicted 31-39-7-5 for a total of 74 points. For the second year in a row all contestants over estimated the Habs performance. --------------------------------------------- 2023 Season Montreal finish the 2022-2023 Regular Season with 68 points leading to a 4 way tie in Habsworld predictions: DalHabs 27-42-6-7 = 67 points 8th, 29th, 31 goals by Caufield DutchHabsFan 25-40-10-7 = 67 points 6th, 27th, 25 goals hab29RETIRED 28-43-8-3 = 67 points 8th, 2th, 39 goals alfredoh2009 29-44-5-4 = 67 points 7th, 29th, 29 goals The tiebreaker was predicting the number of goals scored by Cole Caufield. Caufield scored 26 regular season goals plus 2 shoot out goals for a total of 28 goals. alfredoh2009 won the tiebreaker with his prediction of 29 goals. DalHabs and illWill are the two repeat winners!!! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2023-2024 edition Predict the Habs regular season performance during the upcoming 2023-2024 NHL season. Rules for this season. Predict a) what the Habs regular season record will be: wins-losses-OTL-SOL b) in what place in the Atlantic Division the Habs will finish c) in what place in the league the Habs will finish d) First tiebreaker: How many 20 goal scorers will the Habs have this season. e) Second tiebreaker: How many points will Suzuki finish the season with. The winner will be based upon the most accurate prediction of the Habs final points. In the event of a tie bonus points will be awarded for getting the number of wins, number of losses, number of OTL's or number of SOL's correct or nearly correct. The tie breakers will be combined in some crazy way to break ties if required. The decision of Peter Puck is final. Contest is void where prohibited. Don't forget to separate overtime losses and shootout losses. Entries due before puck drop on Wednesday October 11 at 7:07pm EST. Good luck.
  5. I'll chime in too to say I like the new format.
  6. We should be able to claim one and then trade him to a team lower in the waiver claim priority.
  7. Petry's value will rise unless he is injured or plays terribly. I don't expect either of those events are likely. A team trading for him now is incurring the risk of one or both of those outcomes. If they wait they can be sure of who they are getting. Also he will only be of real interest to teams hoping for the cup this year or next. Any such team trading for Petry now is also counting on being in contention next April. That's another risk such a team assumes if they make a trade now. Of course having Petry for the year might help them have a good regular season. In February/March I expect a few top teams will be very interested in Petry. The main reason to trade him now would be if we need to shed his salary to get below the cap with Price on the team at the beginning of the season.
  8. I doubt it will be very interesting. The leafs knew their situation when the acquired Domi, Bertuzzi, etc. I am certain they have a plan to get under the cap and it won't be too painful for them.
  9. It wasn't that big of a deal. There was mild chronic pain in my knee for a few months. Then I had to quit sports for a 6 month period (causing me to be cut from a soccer team). After that I was fine.
  10. Yes, I remember when the Leafs were using cutting edge pyramid power and everyone else thought they were crazy.
  11. Well I had Osgood Schlatter disease in my early teens and I ended up never playing in the NHL so it looks like a pretty bad sign to me. Maybe treatment is better now.
  12. I don't think the hit and run is particularly serious given it only involved property. Depending on the details, the resisting arrest could be much more serious.
  13. There was lots of hype about Michkov. I am not at all sure that he was the conventional 5th best choice. The media painted that picture and indeed the picture that he was the 2nd best player. But the actual evidence we have is that 6 teams thought he wasn't the second best choice. One team thought he was the best player left after 7 picks were made. We really don't know what the other teams thought of him. I definitely don't want a management team that just follows conventional wisdom. Montreal has the money to spend on extensive scouts and should be using that advantage to excel against the other teams with less resources.
  14. I find this view point very strange and ultimately unfair to Hughes. If Marco Kasper (LW taken 8th in 2022 by Detroit) blossoms into a star and the best player drafted last year does that mean Hughes made a historic error? Suppose you knew that Michkov has a 20% chance to be the best player picked this year, a 40% chance to bust and a 40% chance to be the 4th-10th best player. Further suppose Reinbacher has a 90% chance to be the 6th best player. If you pick Michkov is that a historic error if he doesn't become the best player? If he does become the best player was it a historic error to choose Reinbacher?
  15. Thanks for pointing this out. It looks the same as what I concluded. Its very clear about the possibilities but doesn't yield a clear summary. Upon doing more research, I realized that what I called the "Key Decision Point" was incorrect in my first post. I have now corrected it.
  16. Okay, I tried to make sense of the celebrated confusing conditions in the trade we made with Calgary to take on Monahan and his contract. I think the following description is correct, please feel free to correct me. Corrected now to give the correct conditions in the "Key decision point". I'm also interested to see which scenario will actually happen. Which do you believe will come to pass? Which are you rooting for? First decision: If Calgary finishes 2023-2024 season and playoffs as one of the 13 best teams, i.e., if Calgary is picking in 2024 between 20th and 32nd, we can choose to take that pick. [I don't see this happening.] Let's suppose the above doesn't happen. Then we get a 1st round pick in either 2025 or 2026 from either Calgary or Florida. It will almost surely be a 2025 1st rounder. There is only one scenario where we get a 2026 1st round pick (I'll call this case B(ii)). The only way we would get a 2026 1st rounder is if: We don't get the 2024 pick (very likely) and Florida's 2025 first rounder does not go to Calgary (see below why this might happen) and Calgary wins the 2025 lottery getting the 2025 #1 overall (very unlikely). If this remote scenario comes to pass, we would get the better of Calgary's and Florida's 2026 1st round pick and also would get Calgary's 2025 3rd round pick. This is extremely unlikely. So we probably get a 2025 first rounder which would be from either Florida or Calgary. Key decision point: Either (A) Florida’s 2024 first-rounder is not top 10 [and then it goes to Philadelphia for Claude Giroux ]AND Florida’s 2025 first-round pick is also not top 10 then Calgary gets Florida’s 2025 first-round pick (from the Matthew Tkachuk trade) or (B) One of Florida’s 2024 and 2025 first rounder is top 10 then Florida’s 2025 first-round pick does not go to Calgary (and so they can't give it to us). If Florida's 2024 first rounder is top 10 then they keep it instead of giving it to Philly. Philly instead gets Florida's 2025 first pick and so Calgary gets Florida's 2026 first rounder. If Florida's 2025 first rounder is top 10 and they already paid Philly then Florida keeps their own 2025 first rounder and Calgary gets Florida's first pick in 2026. If A happens then Calgary gets Florida's 2025 1st round pick (and might give it to us). If B happens then Calgary gets Florida's 2026 1st round pick (instead of Florida's 2025 1st rounder). Next both A and B have subcases: (A) Florida's 2025 1st rounder is transferred to Calgary and (i) Calgary earns a top 10 ten pick (after the lottery) in 2025: We get Florida's 2025 1st rounder (which will be in the range 11-32). (A) Florida's 2025 1st rounder is transferred to Calgary and (ii) Calgary's 2025 (after the lottery) pick is 11th-32nd. We get the better of the Calgary/Florida 2025 1st round pick (both of which will be in the range 11-32) . (B) Florida misses the 2025 playoffs and (i) Calgary's 2025 pick (after the lottery) is 2nd-32nd: We get Calgary's 2025 1st rounder. (B) Florida misses the 2025 playoffs and (ii) Calgary's 2025 pick is 1st overall (after the lottery). We are in the unlikely case described above: We get a 2026 1st rounder and Calgary's 2025 3rd rounder as described above. There is also a chance to get a 4th rounder in case B(i) (i.e., if Calgary does not get Florida's 2025 1st rounder) and if both Florida’s and Calgary's 2025 1st round pick are 11th-32nd, and Florida's pick is better than Calgary's and Florida's pick was transferred to another team [i.e., to Philadelphia] due to prior conditions, then we also get Calgary’s 2025 4th round pick.
  17. Waiting until the trade deadline involves too much chance of an injury, given his back problems. Also sending him out now frees space for the young guys.
  18. Why is it presumptuous to assume they can judge an 18 year old player's psychology but not presumptuous to believe they can determine which of a large range of 18 year old prospects is the best player? Both of these are inexact sciences. I also don't see that there would be anything wrong with identifying particular attributes that are needed to play in Montreal and then taking those into account when drafting players you hope will become Habs. Having said that, I don't see any real evidence that this is happening. When we chose Hutson and Beck was this because our management team is eccentric? Were those players chosen because of some special abilities particular to playing in Montreal? We, like most teams, need goalie talent. Star goalie are not easily obtained via trade. Since everyone seems to feel that predicting which goalies will develop is "voodoo", it makes sense to choose goalies in the later rounds. The vast majority of players taken after round 3 (or even 2) will not have NHL careers. If predictions for the development of skaters is more accurate than for goalies it follows that knowing a skater is not ranked in the top 100 is better evidence they won't make the NHL.
  19. Exactly. Some people are complaining we didn't trade back. I think it very unlikely any tempting packages were offered for the 5th (or 6th) pick.
  20. If Washington or Philly or one of the other with a pick in the 6-12 range teams wanted Michkov or someone else the lack of the 31st pick would not have prevented them. Either of those teams could have made a deal with Arizona who have plenty of picks.
  21. The biggest rumour was that Washington was willing to trade up. I think its pretty clear now that this was false. Based upon the picks teams made I don't think any team was motivated to trade up to number 5.
  22. I think its clear that Arizona would have taken Reinbacher and since we wanted him, there was no chance to trade back.
  23. Calgary losing Toffoli for very little means the draft pick they owe us is getting better and better.
  24. To me, the key here is that we will have a read on Newhook's abilities sooner than whomever we could have taken with the 31st and 37th picks. We can't afford to keep piling up good but not great players. We don't have room for them all. If the coaches can bring Newhook to his ceiling (or close) we will have another solid top 6 forward. If not we can move on in a couple of years.
  25. How happy will you be from 1-10 if one of these are picked at 5: Michkov: 10/10 Smith: 9/10 Benson: 8.5/10 Leonard: 8.5/10 Reinbacher: 4/10 Dvorsky: 2.5/10 If we want either Reinbacher or Dvorsky we need to trade back.
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