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Peter Puck

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Posts posted by Peter Puck

  1. All the odds are based on a simulation, done 100,000,000 times by that site. In that simulation, whoever won played no impact whatsoever on the Habs' odds for making the playoffs. I would guess that the simulator thinks both those teams are for sure playoff bound and that the Habs aren't really battling them to make it, but rather others. I've often seen that over the years, 2 teams with similar records, it's lose-lose either way which just speaking in general terms, neither helps nor hurts things unless it's a 3 pointer.

    Looking at the new numbers (I'll update them in the 1st post later today) that shows the results, it stayed that way. Boston/Pittsburgh played no role in Montreal's chances of making the playoffs, and only slightly affected the Habs' projected finish.

    I guess. But this seems very fishy. We are now 2 points behind Boston and they have a game in hand. With almost half a season to go, it is clear that we are battling the Bruins and also the Penguins at least as far as a simulation goes.

    As I say, all we have to do is finish ahead of the Bruins to qualify for the playoffs. Since they lost to the Penguins instead of winning, it seems we are quite a bit better off.

  2. Hi Brian,

    I am confused about the Penguins/Bruins game in the opening post. How is it possible that the outcome of this game had no change on our playoff chances.

    The Bruins were behind the Penguins (but with 2 games in hand). Most importantly, if we catch the Bruins we are basically guaranteed to make the playoffs (and finish top 3). Catching the Penguins obviously helps our chances but it doesn't assure us a playoff spot.


  3. This whole size thing is a red herring. Any of the bigger guys we have are dismissed as "playing small". Any big guy on another team is automatically considered as physical. Sure, we would all like to have a team of quick, fast skating, skilled, huge players with good hands and great hockey sense. The fact is, every player lacks something. We happen to have a number of forwards who are not overly big. Should we trade Plex or Gionta for Ponikarovsky?

  4. I agree with The C. C. and tend to subscribe to theory #4 (plus a major loss of confidence in many players).

    Theory #1 (our early success was purely a product of Price overachieving) is clearly wrong in my opinion. Price is playing just about as well now as he did in October and November.

    In October/November we were were giving up only 3 or 4 quality scoring chances per game. Now that number is up to 10 or more.

    Price is still stopping 60% of those chances. In Oct/Nov we went whole periods without making any serious defensive errors. Now we commonly see 2 or 3 errors within 40 seconds.

    I also dismiss theory #2 (the system is unsustainable). How is a system sustainable for 2 months but not for 6?

    I pray #3 (just a slump) is correct. In the past few years, a number of top teams (Pittsburgh, Philly, Washington) have gone into 10 or 20 game tailspins and then recovered.

    Theory #5 (a repeat of the 2009 collapse) also worries me. I never really came to a satisfying explanation for that collapse - my best guess was to attribute it to Carbonneau.

    I expect we'll lose today - probably Vokoun will be unbeatable (if he even needs to be). But I am hopeful that a return to home games and the addition of Wiz will lead to a recovery.

  5. rer

    It is also more likely for a young unknown forward to contribute out of nowhere in the playoffs.

    Paul Dipietro, Claude Lemieux, John Leclair, Raffi Torres, Mark Lamb, Adam Deadmarsh, Martin Lapointe etc etc.

    There are 50+ years of names of unknown forwards who produce at 2-3 times their regular rate.

    Wingers have the easiest defensive responsibility on the ice. You can introduce a young/new player into a system

    and have them produce immediate results. Veterans can get hot out of nowhere and spark an offense with huge goals

    that convert an average offense into a strong one. In a small sample size this is a realistic scenario.

    Now try to list off young/new/veteran defensemen that all of a sudden raise their defensive level in the playoffs to

    a point where an average defensive team morphs into a dominant or strong one? Young defensemen have one

    of the hardest jobs to do when they adjust to the NHL, look at some of the brain cramp plays PK made against the

    Flyers in the Conference Finals.

    I would rather go into the playoffs with a Regehr or Bieksa and hope that Desharnies, White, Lapierre, Pacioretty,

    Pouliot or Kostitsyn get hot for 6 weeks than enter the playoffs with the D core they have now

    and praying if one of them gets hurt that Carle, Weber or Picard will raise their level.

    I would add a D-man. This team with Regehr would be one of the best defensive teams in the league, with Hagman

    does anything change?

    There is a reason why we can name some many forwards (and goalies) who suddenly emerged as stars in the playoffs and we can't name any Dmen. The reason is that goal scoring stats (or goaltending stats) make these players easy to recognize and they get lots of publicity. Any dman who similarly raises his game will not be noticed by the vast majority of people and so we never hear of them. This doesn't mean that they don't exist, just that we can't name them.

    I can name one: Subban, although his performance last year wasn't really the same sort of sudden emergence you are looking for.

  6. Well, I'm assuming we'll have one of our wins disqualified, obviously. :lol:

    Uh, 41-33-8, I guess. 90 points, 8th in East.

    Are we supposed to say the overall NHL rank? I see a lot of people have it, but it wasn't in the original post. I'll just say 19th, then. 8th in East is lower total than 11th in West.

    It's fun to list the overall rank but I won't be counting it as a tie-breaker.

  7. 5th annual HabsWorld points prediction contest.

    Hall of Fame:

    2006-2007 Jean

    won with a prediction of 92 points when the Habs finished the year with 90 pts. If only we could have won that last game. mad.gif

    2007-2008 Adirondack Bud

    exactly predicted our final total of 104 pts.

    2008-2009 Zowpeb

    won by predicting a strong start followed by a slower 2nd half ending with 99 points. The Habs finished the season in 8th place with 93 points. On September 22, 2008 Zowpeb predicted "I think we'll see a rough patch just past the mid-year point... " Wow.

    2009-2010 Joelassister

    correctly predicted the Habs would finish with 88 points.

    Honourable mention to kaos who predicted a season record of 39-34-9 (87 pts) while the Habs finished 39-33-10.


    Rather than just predicting our regular season final points total, predict what the Habs regular season record will be. Also predict in what place in the East the Habs will finish. The winner will be the poster whose point total is closest to the Habs at the end of the season. Ties will be broken using the NHL tiebreaking formula. The place prediction will serve as a further tie-breaker.

    Make you predictions before the beginnning of Thursday's season opener.

  8. His size is a concern - most small guys don't make it in the NHL so he gets bumped down (at least that's why I moved him down). Looking at who will be posted in tomorrow's group, there's maybe only one or two I'd put Gallagher ahead of - I do like him though.

    Yes, he is small but I think he has the attitude and style of play to make it. Admittedly, I haven't seen much of him -just clips.

  9. I would like to see the PQ try the following. If the province is going to contribute toward a new arena in Quebec City then the new team needs to be a real francophone team. The PQ should try to require that the only players allowed to play for the new Nordiques are francophones from Quebec.

  10. Tampa got Desjardins as a potential callup for when Mike Smith gets hurt. They don't want to expose Janus or Tokarski to the NHL like what happened with Ramo a few years back.

    Ramo's probably "recovered" from that develoopmental curve ball, but might like his KHL gig, who knows. It's possible we'll get four guys coming out of the KHL into our organization next year, as all have expiring contracts: Emelin, Ramo, Trunev and Trotter.

    Maybe but I think they want to keep Janus in Florida not the AHL so that he'll get more starts and so they need an AHL backup.

  11. We got the better player in this deal. It is a bit of a risk because he may not come back from Russia.

    As far as I can tell, Tampa needed an AHL backup for 1 year. Desjardins will probably do this job quite well. After this season they have other prospects to replace him. That works well for Tampa since he will be a UFA. So they gave us a better player who is unavailable for use in the AHL this year and who doesn't fit into their plans anyway.

    I am also not sure that Desjardins fits into our plans. He looks like he may well be a career AHLer. Of course he may continue to develop and could make the NHL eventually but he is already (almost) 25.

    I think there is a reasonable chance that Ramo will return next season to be our NHL backup since Auld may be gone.

  12. Personally I think it clear that Ramo has the higher ceiling.

    However, I think the big advantage here is that Ramo will not be a UFA until 3 years from now. Desjardins will be a UFA at the end of this season (unless he somehow plays 28 NHL games which will never happen). We have 3 years to convince Ramo to come back.

  13. The Habs have since made it clear that they thought both Price and Staal were future franchise players. The scouts disagreed on which of the two to pick and Gainey/Timmons decided tht a franchise goalie is more valuable than a franchise Dman. This makes it clear they were picking what they thought was the BPA.

  14. He has some talent, no question. But his previous coaches in Hamilton expressed surprise at his work ethic in his NHL rookie season - a warning flag if you ask me - and Kostitsyn was reassigned to Hamilton under Carbo as well, not just JM. Then he showed up to camp out of shape and lackadaisical and demanded a trade after being sent down; following this he alienated his teammates, then slagged both them and Habs management in the press. This guy is toxic waste.

    I see no reason to blame JM that Sergei is an a**hole.

    Lets get the facts straight at least. He showed up to camp still recovering from an injury. He played 2 preseason games and then was sent down. When did he slag his teammates in the press? Link please. And don't point to some russian "reporter" - all those guys are unreliable nd hardly qualify as press.

  15. Sergei handled himself badly. What was Martin supposed to do, reward him for a poor attitude and pretty poor play?

    Besides, I don't even think he's as talented a player as people say. His skills with the puck are no better than Metropolit's IMO.

    Sure Sergei handled himself badly. But the Habs handled him badly too. The difference is that an experienced coach should be able to deal with an immature player. Sergei has a lot of talent - he has the skill set to be a top 6 forward. He is capable of playing with grit. He regressed under Martin but still was quite good defensively.

    You ask "what was Martin supposed to do?" The answer is that Martin was supposed to teach him how to play in the NHL. Sergei has the skills and Martin failed to mold him into a player. What he did intead was drive him out of town. It's easy to say that its Sergei fault but there is no question Martin failed with him. We will see how the Predators do. I'm pretty sure Sergei has the makeup to be a good player. The coach's job is to develop that potential.

  16. Awww YEAH :hlogo: This looks better by the minute.

    Even though it's a minor trade, I'm disproportionately happy because it's been so long since we can look at a trade straight up and say it's obviously a winner. Pending all the required signings, this deal is obviously a winner. A very typical Gauthier-type deal: small but significant improvement.

    I'm not so sure we won this trade. Lots of people are down are Sergei but I still think he is the probably the best player among the three. Martin doesn't like him and handled him badly so I guess we had to get rid of him. But I think it will take two years before we know whether we got the short end of the stick on this deal.

  17. Because things are slow over here, I would to enter a comment from another board to get the ball rolling. The gist of the comment was that Philly and Chicago carry no Russian players. One of these teams is going to win, and be the model for franchises going forward. I would like to add that neither one carries a bevy of SMURFS, all on the same team. That should do it.

    Also note that neither of these teams has strong goaltending. Yet one of them will win the cup. We need to stop wasting picks on goaltenders. Lets dump both Price and Halak (neither has ever reached a cup final) and try finding some more average to below average tenders.

  18. A lot of people (e.g. Don Cherry) seem to think that Lapierre is somehow obligated to fight. Somehow the fact that he gets under the other team's skin is supposed to mean that he being dishonourable if he doesn't fight. I don't really understand this. Briere gets the opposition mad by scoring goals - but no one thinks this means he has to fight anyone who challenges him.

    I understand that opposition players want to beat him up but why should he be required to give them the chance?

  19. Here's a point I haven't heard anyone comment on regarding our goalies. Next year all goalies will have to wear pads whose size is proportional to the individual goaltender. I don't expect this to affect Price much given his size. On the other hand, I think Jaro will be forced into smaller equipment. How will this affect his play? How will it affect the play of other goalies in the league?

    For this reason, I am nervous about putting our eggs into Halak's basket.

    I note that Pang, the world's smallest goalie thinks we should keep Halak and let Price go.

    I don't think any team will spend $5 million for Halak. His body of work in the NHL just isn't extensive enough yet. There are too many goalies who have gotten hot for a season or less and then fizzled.

  20. Didn't Gainey almost trade Halak ?

    Just saying

    The team admitted that they considered trading Halak to Philly. The team also said that Philly wasn't willing to offer what Gainey thought he was worth. How does this translate into a mistake by Gainey?

    To me the bottom line is that the all players he brought in last summer (except Mara who is injured) were the key players in the victory over Washington. I don't think you will find many people who think we would have won that series if we had kept the UFA's from last year whom Gainey let go. The decision to let 9 UFA's walk was a huge risk. I think the team's play against Washington proves that we are better after changing the core especially given that we are a much younger team now. Gainey's gamble has been vindicated.

    Many people think we are in deep cap trouble but I am not convinced. Many teams have looked like they were screwed by the cap and suddenly they find a loophole or a trade no one thought possible and then they are fine. If we trade Hamrlik this summer we are okay.

  21. I firmly disagree.... Gainey left because he was afraid of losing his job; he saw this team headed for doom in the centennial and didn't want to be accounted for the fall...I think the players of the organization staying together and playing as a team throughout the season (despite injury plague) deserve the majority of credit. I think a majority of you should bow your heads and praise Jaroslav Halak on this forum after some of the critique and bashing that he has endured since mid-season. He just proved to a majority of us that he is capable of playing a 7 game series and smothering pucks when it matters the most :clap: I am not trying to start a goaltending argument controversy, but instead..motivate this board to encourage our current roster into the second round! GO :hlogo: GO!!! (PS: I watched a 5-1 loss in Montreal and said to myself..."this series isn't over"...to everybody around me with 3 minutes left in game 3) :hlogo: :hlogo: :hlogo: :hlogo:

    This is just ridiculous. Just because you thought Gainey was doing a bad job and should be fired doesn't mean the ownership was about to fire him. Furthermore, the idea that he quit because he was afraid of losing his job is completely unsubstantiated.

    Although obviously Halak did an unbelievably fantastic job I don't know what you mean by proving he is capable of playing a 7 game series. He only played 6 games and he got shelled in one and a half games. I don't mean to criticize Halak but I don't know how any one can conclude from this that he is capable of playing a 7 games series. Furthermore, what we want is goalie who can play a regular season and then 4 series. Halak might be the guy but we still don't know.

    Finally, I'll say that I won a bet on the Canadiens (at 3 to 1 odds) after game 4. I don't claim that this proves anything though.

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