Souray weighing contract offer from Habs

[kaos]

he'll barely be able to cut it as #7...

It takes 5-6 years to develop a hulking dman...

(e.g. Komo was drafted in 2001 and only became a force in the 06-07 season)

Any he only became a force because he was paired with Markov. YOu take Komisarek away from Markov and he is going to struggle.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

Less than 3 weeks to go for Sheldon and his agent to call Gainey. I hope the decision is being weighed and the pros and cons are being thought out By Angelica and Sheldon. I really hope that is what is going on. If this starts to take too much longer, I'm going to be concerned. I am very hopeful we can sign him on a 3 year deal at 5 million. If only BOb had a salary cap crystal ball. If he did he could give Souray a 4 million deal in year one, and 5 million in year two and a 6 in year three. It's still 15 over 3 but it would open up more UFA cap bubble money for the team this year. And, a 5 or 6 million dollar paycheque won't be as difficult to absorb is the cap goes up yet again. But, what if the cap goes down? Gainey doesn't have a cap crystal ball.

Anyone in here have one who can sell it to the Canadiens?

I know many don't want him back. Some posters in some forums are on the borderline of saying Souray is a bum because of his +/-. I think that is too harsh and sometimes you never know or miss a good thing until it's gone

If you have a look at his +/- on average over the last 4 years during the season, it works out to be -18. Against Carolina, his shooting percentage was 18.75. In the playoffs, that's worth it's weight in gold. That's unearthly for a shot percentage. If we keep him, I hope he repeats that feat. He was minus 1 in the series but he's a D. A minus one isn't the sky falling for a D.

Besides, a minus 28 is not necessarily meaning it'll be a repeat performance. Yeah, Souray has this big albatross around him called a MINUS. Yeah, it's all of his fault eh? Was Souray in perfect position on plays, doing his job, making the right play in the D zone, cutting off a pass while Koivu -21, Ryder -25, Kovalev -19, Higgins -11,

Latendresse -20, Bouillon -10, Downey -10, Niinimaa -13 had nothing to do with the goal going in the net?

Plus minus stinks that way. If one plays on a line or unit with 4 other +/- disasters. Even if your name is Raymond Bourque, it's going to show up.

Don't get me wrong. He's a minus. He can be a defensive pylon. But, geez - does anyone in here watch all 82 games? The glass is full some nights. Good grief.

The only reason I am writing it is because it occured to me it hasn't been brought up for discussion. Even if he goes, I think he's getting a bum rap on this. Yes, he's minus. Let's keep it in perspective.

I invite/await your wrath.

Edited June 12, 2007 by ATHLÉTIQUE.CANADIEN

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

You're preaching to the choir in my case. Souray is a lock for 20 goals, 50 points, size, leadership, and a powerplay bomb (hardest shot in the game). His lack of defensive prowess is exaggerated because of the handful of truly spectacular brain-cramps that leave him looking like a complete doofus. He's easily worth $4 mil and probably $5, but don't tell that to the people here who seem to feel that the league's best PP doesn't count. However, my gut feeling is that he won't re-sign - which reaffirms that he should have been traded on deadline day, but that's spilled milk.

Edited June 12, 2007 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[Athlétique.Canadien]

my gut feeling is that he won't re-sign

Me too

[TruthMonger]

If he did he could give Souray a 4 million deal in year one, and 5 million in year two and a 6 in year three. It's still 15 over 3 but it would open up more UFA cap bubble money for the team this year.

That's not how it works. The cap hit each year is the yearly average of the contract. So even if it was $1 million in year one, then 5 million, then 9 million, the cap value each year would be 5 million.

[Fanpuck33]

Souray is a lock for 20 goals.

One season of 20+ goals and suddenly he's a lock for 20 goals? Dion Phaneuf scored 20 as a rookie, I guess that made him a lock for 20 this year? Only 4 D-men have scored 20+ since the lockout, it's not exactly a consistent thing.

[Chips]

Souray is waiting for the market to open on July 1st. If he wanted to make a deal it would have been done by now. I don't really blame him. This past year was exceptional and he needs to take advantage of that fact and play for all he's worth. He really doesn't have much time left to keep on playing at this level in this league. He's got a couple of years max at his level. Then he's done and if I was in his shoes, I'd do exactly that... lets see how much others will pay and who wants me? Someone out there will be willing to pay for a gun at the blueline and be willing to accept his shortcomings on D. 6 Mil/year minimum is my call. Lets see what happens. I know that seems high but trust me; there is money floating in the UFA market this year and not a load of talent available with his kinda booming shot. Trust me he's betting on a big paycheck.

Edited June 12, 2007 by Chips

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

One season of 20+ goals and suddenly he's a lock for 20 goals? Dion Phaneuf scored 20 as a rookie, I guess that made him a lock for 20 this year? Only 4 D-men have scored 20+ since the lockout, it's not exactly a consistent thing.

He scored 15 in 63 games in 03-04 for a pace of 20 goals in 82 games; he got 10 in 43 games in the second half in 05-06 for a pace of 19 goals in 82 games (we have to discount the first half because he was going through a brutal and humiliating public divorce and clearly waaaaaay off his game); and he got 26 last season. Adjusting for injury and extraordinary personal trauma, he's consistently produced at about a 20-goal pace for three consectuive seasons.

Of course, you could argue that he's a high risk for injury and therefore unlikely to play 82 games and therefore unlikely to score 20 regularly. But he's a 20-goal in 82-game defenceman, period.

Edited June 12, 2007 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Incidentally, here's a pertinent link to a blog that features some really superb writing (and thinking) on les canadiens, not to mention some interesting reflections on Souray. Don't miss it!

http://theoryofice.blogspot.com/

I have absolutely no affiliation with the blog, BTW. I wouldn't even know how to start one. :puke:

[Chips]

Incidentally, here's a pertinent link to a blog that features some really superb writing (and thinking) on les canadiens, not to mention some interesting reflections on Souray. Don't miss it!

http://theoryofice.blogspot.com/

I have absolutely no affiliation with the blog, BTW. I wouldn't even know how to start one. :puke:

I agree a very good read. I'll be spending sometime reading up on this bloggers thoughts...

[ShortHanded]

But he's a 20-goal in 82-game defenceman, period.

This is the thing that gets me and I don't really understand. Say Souray is a 20 goal scorer. 20 goal-scoring forwards are worth, what, between 2-3 M, depending on their age, seniority, etc. (Ryder, who's a 30 goal scorer, is making 2M +, and most ppl are complaining that he's not worth it. Higgins who's scored 23 and 22 goals in his first two seasons, is making under 1 M on his first contract and will probably make in the 1.5 M range). Do we all love Souray for his Defense? NO! We love him because he scored 26 goals this year. Defensively, he could do MUCH MUCH better. Ppl keep joking about making him a left-winger, and I know it's a joke, but it makes a good point. D who are worth 5-6 million are worth that money because they have both the Offense and the Defense. They score the big goals (or are involved in the offense a la Markov with all his assists and his great transition game) and still punish the opposing lines' top forwards and manage to stop them from scoring. So why is Souray worth 5-6 M, when he does the Offense part of the combo, but not the defense. If he was a forward, he would be worth 2-3 M. And because of his lack of speed, I'm not sure he'd be such a great forward. (I know he's fast for his size, BUT...)

[Habitforming]

This is the thing that gets me and I don't really understand. Say Souray is a 20 goal scorer. 20 goal-scoring forwards are worth, what, between 2-3 M, depending on their age, seniority, etc. (Ryder, who's a 30 goal scorer, is making 2M +, and most ppl are complaining that he's not worth it. Higgins who's scored 23 and 22 goals in his first two seasons, is making under 1 M on his first contract and will probably make in the 1.5 M range). Do we all love Souray for his Defense? NO! We love him because he scored 26 goals this year. Defensively, he could do MUCH MUCH better. Ppl keep joking about making him a left-winger, and I know it's a joke, but it makes a good point. D who are worth 5-6 million are worth that money because they have both the Offense and the Defense. They score the big goals (or are involved in the offense a la Markov with all his assists and his great transition game) and still punish the opposing lines' top forwards and manage to stop them from scoring. So why is Souray worth 5-6 M, when he does the Offense part of the combo, but not the defense. If he was a forward, he would be worth 2-3 M. And because of his lack of speed, I'm not sure he'd be such a great forward. (I know he's fast for his size, BUT...)

I agree with alot of what you just said except this part

Souray might have 40+ goals if he was a forward and able to stay in the offensive zone so he doesn't get caught.

Imagine him setting up below the hash marks for bullet one-timers like the Brett Hull of old. He would be getting that type of cash then.

(for the record I'm NOT suggesting we make the switch to forward)

Edited June 12, 2007 by Habitforming

[ShortHanded]

I agree with alot of what you just said except this part

Souray might have 40+ goals if he was a forward and able to stay in the offensive zone so he doesn't get caught.

Imagine him setting up below the hash marks for bullet one-timers like the Brett Hull of old. He would be getting that type of cash then.

(for the record I'm NOT suggesting we make the switch to forward)

maybe, but his backward skating is AWFUL, and I think he actually would get caught... Forwards need to be fast enough to get back if they get caught, and I think he'd get caught...

Also, no proof he would get those 40+ goals. Most of his goals are on the powerplay. You may be right, but of course you're not going to pay someone for the potential they have, but for what they've actually done, which i suppose makes my whole "Souray would be worth less if he were a forward" point moot, sigh...

regardless, I stand by my statement that the big money for D's should be reserved for those truly elite D who can do both the D and the offense.

[beliveau1]

maybe, but his backward skating is AWFUL, and I think he actually would get caught... Forwards need to be fast enough to get back if they get caught, and I think he'd get caught...

Also, no proof he would get those 40+ goals. Most of his goals are on the powerplay. You may be right, but of course you're not going to pay someone for the potential they have, but for what they've actually done, which i suppose makes my whole "Souray would be worth less if he were a forward" point moot, sigh...

regardless, I stand by my statement that the big money for D's should be reserved for those truly elite D who can do both the D and the offense.

It should be - but the reality is that the final nail in that coffin was driven when the Leafs in all their lack of wisdom signed McCabe to that insane deal last summer.....

[ShortHanded]

It should be - but the reality is that the final nail in that coffin was driven when the Leafs in all their lack of wisdom signed McCabe to that insane deal last summer.....

yes, we can all thank the Leafs and their infinite wisdom...

[OneSharpMarble]

Souray is a defensive disaster people, if his offense goes in the toilet which it just might we just blew over 5 million. If you are earning 5 million you have to be a d-man. Souray isn't worth that money and his presense hurts the teams. How you say? By a constant dependancy on his shot our 5 on 5 was pathetic and outside of his booming shot on the pp they were ineffective.

For 5 million we can sign a respectable stay at home defensman and have money left over to go towards a strong forward to replace his missing point production. Had we moved him when we had the chance we would all be sitting pretty right now.

[Dalhabs]

Souray is a defensive disaster people, if his offense goes in the toilet which it just might we just blew over 5 million. If you are earning 5 million you have to be a d-man. Souray isn't worth that money and his presense hurts the teams. How you say? By a constant dependancy on his shot our 5 on 5 was pathetic and outside of his booming shot on the pp they were ineffective.

For 5 million we can sign a respectable stay at home defensman and have money left over to go towards a strong forward to replace his missing point production. Had we moved him when we had the chance we would all be sitting pretty right now.

Have we resigned him? You just said "we just blew over 5 million".

[Habsfan24]

His Defense is not the best but I do think that this past season he was 100 times better then the season before. 2 years ago he got burned like it was nobodys business on a consistent basis. But it is true that if you are going to splash out big money to a Defenceman he has to be really really solid in his own end. If he Offensive numbers slide or flop all together your in serious trouble.

[OneSharpMarble]

Have we resigned him? You just said "we just blew over 5 million".

I was talking in future tense.

Also he doesn't have a decent first pass, A defensman who can't skate backwards, cant defend against a coma patient and doesn't have a decent first pass isn't worth over 5 million.

[bar]

I have to say a few things about the bashing.

First off, full disclosure: I'm a huge Souray fan.

Second, Markov has been burned a lot this past season, but he doesn't get lynched on the boards, he seems like an untouchable god to some.

Third, We lacked socring this year and so what do people want to do? Not sign one of our top scorers. It's been two years since the new rules have come into play. There is no more clutching and grabbing, the D have to have the more radical change in their play to abide by the new rules.

I just think people are being way too critical on the guy, way too critical. Sometimes I really wonder at the fans of the team why do we constantly bring down our own, undervalue a lot of players, overvalue others. Price has a good AHL run and people are already ready to give Huet his plane ticket to go away.

The last time I checked the free agent market was pretty bare this summer, not to mention with the harshness of the Habs fan having players not even considering the Canadiens, we should be careful or the only players we'll have to play for our team will be draft picks.

[BTH]

Well I want to keep Souray but the FA market looks pretty talented to me, bar.

[Tony]

I got no problem with Souray coming back but at this point if he doesn't like the deal Gainey offered him, the least he can do is get back to him and go from there.

The only problem is who knows what's going on aside Gainey and Souray, no one is reporting anything at all in this matter.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

THIS BOAT IS SINKING

Sheldon, where are you? Accept the 4.5 dammit!

Edited June 14, 2007 by ATHLÉTIQUE.CANADIEN

[ShortHanded]

THIS BOAT IS SINKING

Sheldon, where are you? Accept the 4.5 dammit!

Is 4.5 the accepted number now though no one's confirmed it? I saw it in the "if I were Bob Gainey" article on the team 990 site, but where did they all get it?

[JMMR]

4.5-5 Mil for 2-3 years would be a great signing if he kept up his production.