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Predict the season to be!


PREMATURE PREDICTION TIME!  

47 members have voted

  1. 1. How do you expect next season to go down?

    • No Souray/Bonk = worse than last year
      3
    • Lateral moves = same as last year
      2
    • Lateral moves + no flu + more seasoned Carbo = slight improvement on last year
      15
    • Hamrlik/Smolinski/Beezer = slight improvement on last year
      2
    • Steady improvement by young guns = significant improvement
      9
    • Breakout season by Higgins, Pleks, Lats, Kosty or Price = significant improvement
      5
    • Massive breakout by several young guns at once = major improvement
      3
    • The Cup is inevitable, dammit!
      2
    • This poll is grossly premature because Bob has a major move up his sleeve
      6


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Pretty good analysis, saskhab.

I think we can take some heart in the fact that Gainey and Carbo were, from all indications, well aware of the problems with the team game. The problem seems to have been that too many players weren't heeding the message - and you can see where a team that's breezing along in 4th place would indeed lack the incentive to buckle down defensively. (We can froth with anger about that all we like, but that's just how these things work. If players get rewarded for bad habits, they typically don't shed those habits, no matter how much the coaches plead with them).

But that too is a cause for cautious optimism. Once burned, twice shy. Committed youngsters such as Pleks, Higgins, and Komisarek will learn from that experience and will likely be leery of repeating it. The next time the coaches have a point like that to make, they will have a lot of credibility. And we brought in vets like Smolinski and Hamrlik and Kosotopolous, who seem to be the type of players who would know better than to fall for these traps. I don't say we'll suddenly turn into the Devils defensively...just that the more egregious holes in the team game may be improved next season.

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They gave up the 3rd most shots in the league, and no one saw more rubber on average than Huet. I don't think they were a good team, they had incredibly good goaltending. Even Gainey said the results in the first half didn't jive with reality (the famous 'inbalance'). This is exactly why I don't think Aebischer sucked the big one like the majority of fans do... he never was supposed to face that kind of an onslaught. He didn't fail his team, his team failed him.

There needs to be a massive improvement in this regard and I don't think it's as simple as a Souray for Hamrlik swap. We were the worst 5-on-5 team last year and we lost 2 of our best 5-on-5 forwards this offseason (Bonk & Johnson). There were fundamental problems with the team last year and we deserved our end result.

Special teams & goaltending are often the difference between contenders and champions, but they alone don't make a good team. Logic dicates that if there are more 5 on 5 minutes (or 4 on 4) in a game than special teams, and you're the worst team in a 30 team league at even strength, you won't be a good team.

So while you guys look at a combination of individual statistical improvements (Higgins gets 35 goals, Plekanec gets 70 points, Kostitsyn 50 or whatever) I'll be looking at team stat trends.

Also, if anyone looks at the East, there are no obvious weak sisters right now in the Conference... IMO, Florida is as much on the brink of a breakthrough thanks to their young core and great goaltending (well, with Vokoun, not like last year) as we are, if not more so. Atlanta looks worse, Buffalo looks worse, the Islanders really aren't a lot different potentially but massively different personnel, Boston looks the same except with a shared goaltending philosophy rather than 1 guy does everything (so they've got a long ways to go), Washington looks better though still needing a big growth defensively, Philly looks better, Toronto got some much needed goaltending help, the Rangers got deeper offensively (though not significantly better), Carolina stood pat with an aging D core but a young goalie, Tampa stood pat, Jersey took a big hit on Rafalski and a smaller one on Gomez (that can be made up internally, but likely not the Rafalski loss), Ottawa stood pat, and Pittsburgh added some more proven depth to their young core. Where do we fit in? Well, I can't really predict where a lot of teams fit in, and Montreal is one of them. There are too many variables to say we'll definitely improve our finish. Really, I think we're still in the muddy middle at the end of the day, which isn't really an improvement in my books even if we finish in 7th instead of 10th. In reality, that may only be the result of a better shootout record than last year. Does anyone really think that'd be a real improvement?

I understand what you are saying, but look at the stats from the start of the season until the start of January. Totally different team, and that played a huge factor in the finals stat of the team.

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I understand what you are saying, but look at the stats from the start of the season until the start of January. Totally different team, and that played a huge factor in the finals stat of the team.

Not really. Bob said he and Carbo talked about the imbalance back in December, how they had the #1 PK and #1 goaltending despite taking way too many penalties and giving up way too many shots against, and how it couldn't possibly last. Obviously the flu killed a lot of potential points for this team, but the team was definitely due for a downturn. So you can say we didn't make it last year because of the flu, and be "accurate", but we got a lot of points early that we didn't deserve as well.

To put it this way, the East is a couple of good teams and a bunch of teams in the muddy middle with obvious flaws and some strong points. I don't think we're close to being out of the mud yet. We could finish 6th or 7th, but I don't think that's an improvement unless those fundamental team flaws are really improved on. The East is full of average to below average teams that making the playoffs as one of those teams is as much a fluke as it is an accomplishment.

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Not really. Bob said he and Carbo talked about the imbalance back in December, how they had the #1 PK and #1 goaltending despite taking way too many penalties and giving up way too many shots against, and how it couldn't possibly last. Obviously the flu killed a lot of potential points for this team, but the team was definitely due for a downturn. So you can say we didn't make it last year because of the flu, and be "accurate", but we got a lot of points early that we didn't deserve as well.

To put it this way, the East is a couple of good teams and a bunch of teams in the muddy middle with obvious flaws and some strong points. I don't think we're close to being out of the mud yet. We could finish 6th or 7th, but I don't think that's an improvement unless those fundamental team flaws are really improved on. The East is full of average to below average teams that making the playoffs as one of those teams is as much a fluke as it is an accomplishment.

I'm not sure about that, but we can agree to disagree.

In parting though, here are some stats by the key Canadiens from the start of the season through January 2nd.

Koivu 15g, 24a -3

Souray 13g, 21a +1

Kovalev 10g, 19a -4

Markov 3g, 22a +4

Plekanec 5g, 9a +2

Ryder 10g, 16a -8

Latendresse 8g, 9a -4

Edited by Habitforming
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I'm not sure about that, but we can agree to disagree.

In parting though, here are some stats by the key Canadiens from the start of the season through January 2nd.

Koivu 15g, 24a -3

Souray 13g, 21a +1

Kovalev 10g, 19a -4

Markov 3g, 22a +4

Plekanec 5g, 9a +2

Ryder 10g, 16a -8

Latendresse 8g, 9a -4

Interesting indeed - although it doesn't prove that Huet wasn't working miracles and artificially inflating their +/-...

But hoo boy, they must have absolutely stunk in the 2nd half to finish the season with such wretched plus-minus totals as they did. :puke:

Edited by The Chicoutimi Cucumber
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I think we have a combination of things. First, I see Hamrlik over Souray as an improvement. Hamrlik is better defensively and has a hard shot of his own. What the team lacks by losing Souray's offense, they will gain back by being forced to work a powerplay that involves more than simply feeding Souray. I think Smolinski and Bonk are a wash. I think that most of the young players will improve their numbers and the team will show more effort as a whole. I think the flu played a huge role, so I hope they can avoid this year. I can see this team doing anything from winning the division to missing the playoffs.

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Yeah, and I was going to add... what were Huet's stats? I remember him having a .930+ SV% in December... and I think Aebi had about .910 or .915.

Huet's stats for the same time period are:

GP 28 W16 L 6 OTL 3 (he was pulled once, and took over from Abby twice for one period each time)

.924 SV% 2.21 GAA and 2 SO

Abby's stats are not listed game by game. Then again he was pulled twice.

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I think after missing last year's playoffs AND seeing the Dogs go all the way with a grinders' bunch that the players will be more receptive to the coache's message. There's really no other way to win in today's NHL than by playing a team system.

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The pro's would be:

Better quality people and players signed with good work ethic.

Improved mobility on the back end. May help, may not, only time will tell.

Better locker room potentially, with Kovalev in there you never know.

Carbo is instilling a harder working team, will the vets buy in?

Cons:

Will Ryder, Koivu and Kovalev figure out there are 2 ends of the rink?

Are Hamrlik and Brisbois upgrades to Rivet and Souray? Time will tell

No work wthic for the last 5-10 years. Will that change?

The youth is the real queastion on this team, will they improve enough to make this team better? I don't know/ I'll watch the games to see.

I'll predict some vets will not buy in and be benched, traded, etc. Then by the end of the year the transformation to a younger team will be much more complete.

Realistically i see them in the hunt for an 8 spot at best.

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Better locker room potentially, with Kovalev in there you never know.

I think this is going to be a key for Montreal. Kovalev is the supposed superstar, yet he gets lazy too often and YAPS better than he PLAYS. If he really cares about winning, he should play a team game and Montreal will be much better than last year. I hate it when skilled guys don't show up on most nights.

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I know the players are a lot to blame, but I think some of the blame should be shelved upon Carbo, this isn't carte blanche for the players though.

His system of sending one in for a forecheck was really useless and lacking, although near the end of the year when they sent two in the pressure the D into making a quick passw worked better IMO. Also letting the team skate, no one will doubt the habs have some wheels, I feel they were under utililized last year.

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The problem in Montreal is not the system. When in the last 10 years have the Habs been a good to great team? The answer is never. The have been mediocre at best continually striving for an 8 seed. They have had numerous coaches and all have failed. To blame carbo is just ridiculous. The same core has done nothing for years.

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The problem in Montreal is not the system. When in the last 10 years have the Habs been a good to great team? The answer is never. The have been mediocre at best continually striving for an 8 seed. They have had numerous coaches and all have failed. To blame carbo is just ridiculous. The same core has done nothing for years.

What core?

Koivu, is all that is left really.

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I agree, i was referring to the core over the past 5 years. Bouillon, Dandy, Ryder, Koivu and Kovalev i beleive are all players here for 3 years.

The change and turnover is finally throughout the line up.

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I agree, i was referring to the core over the past 5 years. Bouillon, Dandy, Ryder, Koivu and Kovalev i beleive are all players here for 3 years.

The change and turnover is finally throughout the line up.

Well, now Breezy is back. Just wait for Ribs' return as a UFA next year! Then he can take #43 and all that's changed is that they swapped numbers.

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I agree, i was referring to the core over the past 5 years. Bouillon, Dandy, Ryder, Koivu and Kovalev i beleive are all players here for 3 years.

The change and turnover is finally throughout the line up.

Just because they've been around doesn't make them our core. You mentioned two of our bottom pairing/depth defenceman in there. Now, our core is Koivu, Kovalev, Markov, Huet, Hamrlik, Komisarek, Higgins, Plekanec, etc. The kids are replacing the old core.

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