Is Andrei Kostitsyn ready for the next step?

[KoZed]

Go back in time. Year is 2003. Habs had an atrocious losing season and got the 10th pick. Top four prospects are Fleury, Staal, Horton and Zherdev. After that lots of experts argueably says Kostitsyn is the best forward available. We know the rest. Epilepsy rumors and Kosty falls on the Habs lap to much surprise and delight.

Weither or not Kostitsyn meets the high expectations that came with the talent scouts saw in him; he already brought us his brother and Grabovsky, which is the bonus that came from having to follow his development in Belarus.

But what if Kosty actually progresses toward that high ceiling scouts saw in him? He was seen as the best game-breaker in his draft class, better than Zherdev. He was seen as the kind of tenacious sniper that could create his own chances and bury them, kind of Hossa or Heatley.

Those high hopes were somewhat cooled off by Kostitsyn's slow development in the first couple of years after his drafting. His first AHL season was really modest with 23 pts in 68 games. Much case has been made that Kosty was playing on the third line back then. But some already labeled him a bust in the light of guys like Carter, Getzlaf, Brown, Richards and Co. -guys the Hbas passed on- making a name for themselves in the NHL.

But the year after his rookie campain, Kostitsyn doubled his AHL ppg average. He played 12 games in Montreal but it was of little notice.

Then the following year, Kostitsyn doubles his AHL ppg avg again. After he was sent down for not being hungry enough to stay in the NHL; Kostitsyn went on a rampage with the Bulldogs and forced the Habs to call him up again, this time Kostitsyn answered the call and manage 11 pts in 18 games. That's more than a point every two games. Granted, most of them were assists on Higgins and Plekanec's goals...

Higgins, Plekanec and Kostitsyn. All 3 went through the Habs system after getting drafted in consecutive years. Plex in 2001, Higgins in 2002 and Kosty in 2003

Plekanec played one more year in Czech Rep. and came to the AHL. He played 3 season there. His PPG AVG was 0.60, 0.89 and 0.80. His goal total improved from 19 to 23 to 29. Basically, after the rookie year both following seasons are the same.

Higgins played 1 more season in Yale, then came to the AHL. He only played 2 seasons there though. His ppg avg was 0.72 and 0.67 but his goals total went from 21 to 28. But basically both seasons are the same.

Now Kostitsyn. 1 more season with Moscow, then came to the AHL. Played 3 seasons there, His ppg avg went from 0.35, 0.73 to 1.04. His goals total was 12, 18 and 21. His pts total was 23, 47 & 52. And thats even if his last season in the AHL is 15 games less than each of the previous too.

Plex & Higgins broke in as rookie at the same time, even tough Higgins is 1 year behind in age and pro seasons. This year was their real sophomore season. Kostitsyn is one year behind and this year was the one where he showed he was too good for the AHL.

Judging by Kostitsyn development compare to Higgy and Plex, next season should see Kostitsyn as a regular from the start. And judging by the way Higgins and Plekanec took the next step in their sophomore year, you gotta wonder what goodness is to expect out of Kostitsyn.

What can the guy bring, realisticaly? Plex and Higgins (considering injury) were at about 20+ goals and near 50 pts. Is something similar expectable from Kosty?

[MFT77]

After watching Kosti play late last season, he sure looked like he is here to stay. I realize it was only a handful of games, but he looked strong on the puck and created some dangerous opportunities for he and hit linemates. Most of his production was 5 on 5 where the Habs were outgunned last year. Having a full year upcoming, hopefully he gets consistent icetime and i'm sure he will produce. How high, that is yet to be determined. As long as he has skilled linemates he will be in a great position to succeed. Would love to see him back with Pleks and Higgy again, but wonder how he would do along side Saku. Don't think 25 goals and 60 points is out of the question. That in itself would be like signing a decent goalscorer. Along with improved production from Lats should be exciting to see.

[Bacchus]

I predict that if hooters stays healthy he will have a heck of a season. I expect him to pull full time duty on the 2nd line with his line mates from last season, and for him to be the dominant point getter. I also think he will see time on the PP this year, which he didn't get much of last year.

There has been a lot of concern about the Habs not making a serious move this off season, but if we get an increase in performance from all of our young guys, and if we get another top-line center (or Plecks takes that spot) then I think that we will have one of the top teams in our conference.

I expect Hooters to get at least 50 + points if he plays the whole season.

[Partisan]

He can manage a good 40pts+-50pts especially if you pair him with Plekanec

[MAK]

I would love to see a plekanec-kostitsyn duo.

last year, whether they played with higgins or even latendresse, it was gold: awesome offensive creativity. its a great mix when you think of it: a two way center with a pure offensive winger and either a future power foward or a speedy hard working left winger. let that line mesh together and it should do really good.

now the only problem is where kovalev will play. last year he was pegged mtl's 2nd line right winger. will he move up the the koivu line, go down on 3rd line or stay still on second...

does anybody knows if kostitsyn has to go through waivers to get sent down?? as I understand it, he does.

Edited September 11, 2007 by marky_and_komi

[Punkned]

I think Kost's slow development since he's come to Canada was due to psychological reasons; lonelyness and homesickness can hurt a players' intensity and confidence.

I have the feeling he overcame these difficulties last season. He played with confidence during the fist 10 of the 22 games he played with the CH last year (he played the last 10 or so injuried and we saw it in his performances)

So I expect a very good year from him, even think of taking him has a later rounder in my pool Could be a real breakout year.

He dominated the AHL last year. WHe scored 52 points in 50 games, but more interesting is that he had a very slow start, scoring only 4 points in his first 11! So he scored 48 points in his last 39 AHL games (a ratio that translates into a 98 points / full 80 games season!)

[simonus]

I think Kost's slow development since he's come to Canada was due to psychological reasons; lonelyness and homesickness can hurt a players' intensity and confidence.

is there any reason to think this?

[MAK]

So I expect a very good year from him, even think of taking him has a later rounder in my pool Could be a real breakout year.

He dominated the AHL last year. WHe scored 52 points in 50 games, but more interesting is that he had a very slow start, scoring only 4 points in his first 11! So he scored 48 points in his last 39 AHL games (a ratio that translates into a 98 points / full 80 games season!)

to put it in a more realistic persepective: he scored 11 in 22 nhl games. thats 41 pts which would be more than acceptable for me.

[ShortHanded]

I would love to see a plekanec-kostitsyn duo.

last year, whether they played with higgins or even latendresse, it was gold: awesome offensive creativity. its a great mix when you think of it: a two way center with a pure offensive winger and either a future power foward or a speedy hard working left winger. let that line mesh together and it should do really good.

now the only problem is where kovalev will play. last year he was pegged mtl's 2nd line right winger. will he move up the the koivu line, go down on 3rd line or stay still on second...

does anybody knows if kostitsyn has to go through waivers to get sent down?? as I understand it, he does.

I'd like to see either Kosty/Plex/Higgins and Lats/Koivu/Ryder or Kosty/Plex/Lats and Higgins/Koivu/Ryder (I haven't checked if I have players on the right wings, but you guys get it)

I don't know what to do with Kovy, honestly. couldn't he play with Smoke?

The other thing of course is where Lahti will play if he makes the team and he's as good as everyone says he is. This would give us the flexibility to play him on any of the four lines (has the talent offensively, and the knack and positioning defensively) and then we'd have enough players for the top three lines to all play a relatively offensive game while still being defensively responsible (Some lines more than others). These players would be: Koivu, Kovy, Ryder, Higgins, Kosty, Plex, Smoke, Lahti, Latendresse, which is really pretty good if we can find the right line combinations.

The others (Begin, Lappiere, Kostopoulous, Murray) would be on the fourth line and play significantly less minutes, while our top three lines would play roughly the same number of minutes, which some lines more "offensively focussed" while others are more defensively focussed but still capable of doing damage offensively.

In terms of Simonus' question, Kosty's wife / gf was pregnant all year and I think was still in Belarus and only coming here to visit, so that probably affected him emotionally. I hope this year she's here all year bc I think it'll definitely help.

[Punkned]

to put it in a more realistic persepective: he scored 11 in 22 nhl games. thats 41 pts which would be more than acceptable for me.

My point was that for 39 games, he was dominant in the AHL, so he's NHL-ready, that makes no doubt. Yes, he scored 11 points in 22 NHL games, but played with a groin injury for approx 10 games, an injury that incapaciated him to join the bulldogs for the playoffs...

is there any reason to think this?

Yes, interviews with Timmins and Lever I read last winter. Didn't bookmark the links tho.

[mathieu30]

If they stay healthy and play the entire season on that same line, Higgins-Plekanec-Kostitsyn, the sky is the limit (or how do you say that an english? ) IMHO.

:hlogo:

[Chris]

Yep, i agree, that line combo will be the habs best. Especially 5 on 5. That line brings a little bit of everything.

I would be more worried about Kovalev's play then Kosty.

[MAK]

My point was that for 39 games, he was dominant in the AHL, so he's NHL-ready, that makes no doubt. Yes, he scored 11 points in 22 NHL games, but played with a groin injury for approx 10 games, an injury that incapaciated him to join the bulldogs for the playoffs...

I was actually agreeing with you !!

by the way, being succesfull in the AHL doesn't always translate in NHL success. jason ward and denis hamel would be great examples

[saskhab]

I just hope that injury doesn't have any lingering long-term effects. He played this summer for Belarus, so we know he's ready for camp. Just a question about if it'll effect him long term.

[Punkned]

by the way, being succesfull in the AHL doesn't always translate in NHL success. jason ward and denis hamel would be great examples

So true.

I hope Kosts plays like a 1st rounder this year (even tho being a 1rst rouder doesn't always translate into NHL sucess...)

[alexstream]

Go back in time. Year is 2003. Habs had an atrocious losing season and got the 10th pick. Top four prospects are Fleury, Staal, Horton and Zherdev. After that lots of experts argueably says Kostitsyn is the best forward available. We know the rest. Epilepsy rumors and Kosty falls on the Habs lap to much surprise and delight.

Weither or not Kostitsyn meets the high expectations that came with the talent scouts saw in him; he already brought us his brother and Grabovsky, which is the bonus that came from having to follow his development in Belarus.

But what if Kosty actually progresses toward that high ceiling scouts saw in him? He was seen as the best game-breaker in his draft class, better than Zherdev. He was seen as the kind of tenacious sniper that could create his own chances and bury them, kind of Hossa or Heatley.

Those high hopes were somewhat cooled off by Kostitsyn's slow development in the first couple of years after his drafting. His first AHL season was really modest with 23 pts in 68 games. Much case has been made that Kosty was playing on the third line back then. But some already labeled him a bust in the light of guys like Carter, Getzlaf, Brown, Richards and Co. -guys the Hbas passed on- making a name for themselves in the NHL.

But the year after his rookie campain, Kostitsyn doubled his AHL ppg average. He played 12 games in Montreal but it was of little notice.

Then the following year, Kostitsyn doubles his AHL ppg avg again. After he was sent down for not being hungry enough to stay in the NHL; Kostitsyn went on a rampage with the Bulldogs and forced the Habs to call him up again, this time Kostitsyn answered the call and manage 11 pts in 18 games. That's more than a point every two games. Granted, most of them were assists on Higgins and Plekanec's goals...

Higgins, Plekanec and Kostitsyn. All 3 went through the Habs system after getting drafted in consecutive years. Plex in 2001, Higgins in 2002 and Kosty in 2003

Plekanec played one more year in Czech Rep. and came to the AHL. He played 3 season there. His PPG AVG was 0.60, 0.89 and 0.80. His goal total improved from 19 to 23 to 29. Basically, after the rookie year both following seasons are the same.

Higgins played 1 more season in Yale, then came to the AHL. He only played 2 seasons there though. His ppg avg was 0.72 and 0.67 but his goals total went from 21 to 28. But basically both seasons are the same.

Now Kostitsyn. 1 more season with Moscow, then came to the AHL. Played 3 seasons there, His ppg avg went from 0.35, 0.73 to 1.04. His goals total was 12, 18 and 21. His pts total was 23, 47 & 52. And thats even if his last season in the AHL is 15 games less than each of the previous too.

Plex & Higgins broke in as rookie at the same time, even tough Higgins is 1 year behind in age and pro seasons. This year was their real sophomore season. Kostitsyn is one year behind and this year was the one where he showed he was too good for the AHL.

Judging by Kostitsyn development compare to Higgy and Plex, next season should see Kostitsyn as a regular from the start. And judging by the way Higgins and Plekanec took the next step in their sophomore year, you gotta wonder what goodness is to expect out of Kostitsyn.

What can the guy bring, realisticaly? Plex and Higgins (considering injury) were at about 20+ goals and near 50 pts. Is something similar expectable from Kosty?

IMO, Perez "stole" Kost's spot last season.

IMO, again, Kost is more of a NHL playmaker with a secret weapon (his shot).

Proof :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kPzfy45Su4

it's not "just an assist on plekanec goal" it's "all the work on plekanec's goal... That's how Savage, Rosie, etc.. got all their goals when they were playing with Koivu.

IMO, again and again, if Carbo keeps the Plekanec - Higgins - Kost line together, it will be the habs best line and real first line. Higgins and Kost will be our best players and Plek is our only "sniping" center.

IMO, Kost is one season away from becoming a "Vanek". He'll learn to shoot more, etc... and will become a threat on skates.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I'd put it slightly differently. If Kostityn does NOT develop into a top-6 NHL forward, it will be time to ask questions about the Habs' vaunted 'development' program. Remember, Perezhogin was projected to become a dangerous NHL forward - now he's gone. OK, so it's not an exact science. But if Kosty also fails to materialize, well, that makes two MAJOR prospects that come to nothing. And at that point you need to start asking why the Canadiens can't develop elite offensive players. (Indeed, if you add to that our failure to develop Hainsey and Beauchemin - two players who, if we still had them, would completely change the compexion of our blue line, the time to ask these questions might be sooner rather than later).

It's all well and good to develop players like Plekanec, who are committed, receptive and bright to begin with. But really successful developmental organizations don't just spin gold into gold. It remains to be seen whether the Habs are all they're cracked up to be in this respect.

Edited September 11, 2007 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[alexstream]

I'd put it slightly differently. If Kostityn does NOT develop into a top-6 NHL forward, it will be time to ask questions about the Habs' vaunted 'development' program. Remember, Perezhogin was projected to become a dangerous NHL forward - now he's gone. OK, so it's not an exact science. But if Kosty also fails to materialize, well, that makes two MAJOR prospects that come to nothing. And at that point you need to start asking why the Canadiens can't develop elite offensive players. (Indeed, if you add to that our failure to develop Hainsey and Beauchemin - two players who, if we still had them, would completely change the compexion of our blue line, the time to ask these questions might be sooner rather than later).

It's all well and good to develop players like Plekanec, who are committed, receptive and bright to begin with. But really successful developmental organizations don't just spin gold into gold. It remains to be seen whether the Habs are all they're cracked up to be in this respect.

ROFL

yeah, point one and close the eyes on the other two dozen... great attitude.

[The Iron Lung]

I'll be surprised if Kostitsyn (injury-free) doesn't get at least 45 points.

[BTH]

is there any reason to think this?

Culture shock. When he first came here, he spoke very little English. His brother came over at a younger age so is already better at English than Andrei is.

I'd like to see either Kosty/Plex/Higgins and Lats/Koivu/Ryder or Kosty/Plex/Lats and Higgins/Koivu/Ryder (I haven't checked if I have players on the right wings, but you guys get it)

I don't know what to do with Kovy, honestly. couldn't he play with Smoke?

The other thing of course is where Lahti will play if he makes the team and he's as good as everyone says he is. This would give us the flexibility to play him on any of the four lines (has the talent offensively, and the knack and positioning defensively) and then we'd have enough players for the top three lines to all play a relatively offensive game while still being defensively responsible (Some lines more than others). These players would be: Koivu, Kovy, Ryder, Higgins, Kosty, Plex, Smoke, Lahti, Latendresse, which is really pretty good if we can find the right line combinations.

The others (Begin, Lappiere, Kostopoulous, Murray) would be on the fourth line and play significantly less minutes, while our top three lines would play roughly the same number of minutes, which some lines more "offensively focussed" while others are more defensively focussed but still capable of doing damage offensively.

A third line of Lahti-Smolinski-Kovalev sounds great to me.

Latendresse-Koivu-Ryder

Higgins-Plekanec-Kostitsyn

Lahti-Smolinski-Kovalev

Begin-Lapierre-Kostopoulos

Those would be perfect - it would only be our so-so defence that would be holding us back from being a top 5 team in the East. Now we'll see how all the changes on D affect us. For all we know, our D is already there.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

I think Andrei will break out. Hopefully the "CAT" line stays intact. The Cat line he he. That's cool

[ShortHanded]

A third line of Lahti-Smolinski-Kovalev sounds great to me.

Latendresse-Koivu-Ryder

Higgins-Plekanec-Kostitsyn

Lahti-Smolinski-Kovalev

Begin-Lapierre-Kostopoulos

Those would be perfect - it would only be our so-so defence that would be holding us back from being a top 5 team in the East. Now we'll see how all the changes on D affect us. For all we know, our D is already there.

I like those combinations too, but really as long as these 9 players play on the top three lines it works for me (this is assuming something different doesn't happen in camp - let's see how it actually works out).

In terms of our D, you're right, for all we know, they're there. We have at least 3 top 4 D in Markov, Komi, Hamrlik. We know Markov and Komi play well together. Now if Streit is paired with Hamrlik and they work out, they'd be a good combo: both can move the puck, Hamrlik is big, strong and physical, and both are relatively fast (with Streit being the faster one I believe). As others have mentioned, Streit could still be improving, as he's shown over last season that he can still improve at this level, so maybe he hasn't reached his potential. I'm assuming that if Cote or O'byrne make the team, they certainly won't play top 4 minutes this year, and will be ushered in gradually, so then any of bouillon, Brisebois, Dandy, Cote, O'byrne round out our last pairing / extra D, with Brisebois also putting in special teams time on the PP. It's actually not bad, but we'll have to see in training camp and the beginning of the season to see how they turn out.

edit: oops! forgot Gorges in the list fighting for a spot. I'd like this guy to get a chance.

Edited September 12, 2007 by ShortHanded

[Chris]

I mentioned earlier that switching Lahti and Lats, my reasoning is who will play D on that top line if Lats is on it. There plus minus was bad enough last year. Lahti brings size, speed, gritiness and from reports is good in his own end.

Smoke can play D with Lats and Kovalev.

The good thing is this is the first time in years where there is some actual competition and a variety of good line conbos that can be found. Players can be benched without losing much talent wise.

We will all know soon where it shakes out.

[sainteflanelle]

Kostitsyn so far has scored 1 goal in 22 games in the NHL. I agree he's one of the most talented of our prospects and has a terrific shot on goal but he also has questionable work ethics. I think his brother Sergei will make the big team before he does. He may start the season with the Habs but if he doesn't pull himself by the bootstraps, he'll go back to Hamilton and I don't think he has any options left. I hope he proves me wrong. The crow pie will be tasty.

[Bacchus]

Kostitsyn so far has scored 1 goal in 22 games in the NHL. I agree he's one of the most talented of our prospects and has a terrific shot on goal but he also has questionable work ethics. I think his brother Sergei will make the big team before he does. He may start the season with the Habs but if he doesn't pull himself by the bootstraps, he'll go back to Hamilton and I don't think he has any options left. I hope he proves me wrong. The crow pie will be tasty.

He was injured during the last 12 or so games of the season, and he still managed to put up assists ... now that he is healthy I think he will pot a few more.

I agree with another poster, they have to play AK, or they can kiss him goodbye. He needs some playing time with the big boys, and then when he gets comfortable, he will satisfy many a fan.