Upcoming Canadian Election

[zumpano21]

Unless, you've been asleep at the wheel, you'll know that an election is on the horizon.

Some may question why an election now, especially when Harper has no chance of winning a majority but there's more to this than meets the eye. The Liberals are totally unorganized right now with a spineless, unpopular leader and are likely to lose a few seats. This will only produce another conservative minority but will be more effective in demoralizing the Liberal party.

Predictions:

1 - Conservative minority

2 - Dion will be out

3 - There will be a major shakeup of the Liberal party

[JoeLassister]

Prediction : i'll still dissapointed.

[Jean]

Bit of a prediction, bit of a wish : The Bloc will get his ass kicked and we'll finally be rid of those eternal whiners.

I'll also predict than Québec will be the only province to see it's electoral map change significantly, with all 3 parties making gains at the expense of the Bloc. I predict very little change in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Western Canada.

[MAK]

Bit of a prediction, bit of a wish : The Bloc will get his ass kicked and we'll finally be rid of those eternal whiners.

I'll also predict than Québec will be the only province to see it's electoral map change significantly, with all 3 parties making gains at the expense of the Bloc. I predict very little change in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Western Canada.

yeah they'll be more about the liberals and NDP than torry and bloc.

with the way cuts in culture and Bernier acting like F-ing moron, I don't see how they would win more seats in the Q.

[JLP]

When Harper says there will be an election this fall to choose a new leader for Canada, he is probably referring to Nov 4.

[Jean]

yeah they'll be more about the liberals and NDP than torry and bloc.

with the way cuts in culture and Bernier acting like F-ing moron, I don't see how they would win more seats in the Q.

I take it you're not a La Presse subscriber. That was their headline today :

La Presse-Crop Poll : Conservatives 31%, Bloc 30% Liberals 20%

[Zowpeb]

I take it you're not a La Presse subscriber. That was their headline today :

La Presse-Crop Poll : Conservatives 31%, Bloc 30% Liberals 20%

Yeah, it's definitely possible that if people jump from the Bloc a large percentage would vote Conservative. The Liberals still have issues in Quebec and a lot of Bloc voters lean to the right wing...

Ontario will still vote Liberal in droves...amazing considering that the federal Liberals always screw Ontario and when the premier is a Horrible Liberal leader.

This alone will force another minority government. Until Harper can secure a bigger chunk of Ontario then he's screwed. If they would've made a move to bypass McGuinty and help manufacturing while self promoting that fact...they'd have likely taken big patches of SW, W, N and E Ontario...GTA will always vote for the liberals like the lemmings they are.

Frankly, I just don't understand how anyone would want to see Dion as the PM...he'd get absolutely KILLED at the negotiating table if/when the US starts trying to re-open NAFTA in 2-3 years. Further, his entire "Green Shift" plan is a bloody joke, and scam, that is destined to push the level of corruption and taxes in this country to even higher levels. If that's even possible...

There was a time when I thought Dion had some leadership skills but that was before the last election campaign. He just wasn't ready for the reigns. The future Liberal leadership candidates are a mess too IMHO.

[MAK]

I take it you're not a La Presse subscriber. That was their headline today :

La Presse-Crop Poll : Conservatives 31%, Bloc 30% Liberals 20%

I go on cyberpresse. at this point polls mean nothing.

[JLP]

Frankly, I just don't understand how anyone would want to see Dion as the PM...he'd get absolutely KILLED at the negotiating table if/when the US starts trying to re-open NAFTA in 2-3 years.

Is Harper more likely to stand up to the US? So far I don't see 'stand up' I see 'suck up.'

[CerebusClone]

Bit of a prediction, bit of a wish : The Bloc will get his ass kicked and we'll finally be rid of those eternal whiners.

I'll also predict than Québec will be the only province to see it's electoral map change significantly, with all 3 parties making gains at the expense of the Bloc. I predict very little change in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Western Canada.

Actually the best thing that could happen for this province is a massive shift from the Bloc to the NDP, lead by Thomas Mulcair who is a very popular politician in this province. Considering that Mario Dumont and the ADQ became the official opposition in Quebec, it could indicate that people are now more open to those right wing parties, and don't see voting for them as a waste.

Not only would the NDP defend most of the values shared by quebecers as well if not better than the Bloc, but we wouldn't have Duceppe giving this province a negative image throughout Canada. I'm actually sometimes ashamed that Duceppe represents Quebec in the eyes of a majority of Canadians...

[JLP]

I always thought the NDP should make an alliance with the Bloc.

[JoeLassister]

I always thought the NDP should make an alliance with the Bloc.

would be coo. no PC, no Libs

[Athlétique.Canadien]

....."Green Shift" plan is a bloody joke....

Yeah, tell me about it. The carbon tax was all about "preparing for a fall election". Dion is supposedly ready to go but now that Harper is grinding those gears, Dion has done a flip flop on the whole thing and doesn't want to go. What's with that? He claims he doesn't want a vote to allow the 4 bi-elections to proceed. The true motive is to survive.

I believe the whole motive on this election is simply to hurt the Liberal Party more. Harper would rather hurt them in the long run. Check out this link:

CTV: Tom Flannagan. Political Scientist at University of Calgary Election Theory - Kill the Grits

I am a fan of the following columnist. She always raises some very good points:

Toronto Star - Chantal Hébert - PM will get his wish for October vote

[Zowpeb]

Is Harper more likely to stand up to the US? So far I don't see 'stand up' I see 'suck up.'

Why do you see that?

Remember Canada and the US share a large border, have LARGE economic ties, cultural ties (even if people don't want to admit it), have many shared mediums, etc...so is it hard to believe that, very often, what's in the best interests of Canada also often mirror the interests of the US? You have such a hate for George Bush that you can't see the forest for the trees...everytime Harper agrees with the US he's a suck-up and every time he disagrees the liberal media won't raise the issue so it's drowned out. Where has the Harper government truly "sucked-up" without it being in the best interest of Canada? <sarcasm>Oh wait, Canada is not supposed to make decisions based on it's needs but is supposed to be a martyr to the world on environment issues, foreign aid and the like...all while 3rd world nations, the US, China, India, and even Europe ignore those same issues...I almost forgot...<sarcasm/>

If the US opens NAFTA Harper will tar and feather them over energy, oil, softwood lumber and the rest of our commodities they so desperately need...which means the US will have to cave on many issues.

I can almost guarantee you that Dion would cave on many issues just to have environmental controls put in place. Everyone would say it's a great idea and we're being "leaders" again on the world stage, blah blah blah....and it would be a noble idea that would promptly cost billions in government grants/loans to implement, then ultimately be ignored and unenforced as per Liberal tradition, not to mention US states and their federal government who also wouldn't implement any of the controls. So, in the end, Canada would lose jobs to increased US protectionism, likely have to increase taxes to "help business implement controls", which would then be shuffled to various non-accountable places (ie. Liberal friendly pockets), all while our economy goes into the toilet due to over taxation and lost jobs...all the while it will be defended by the countries overly large Liberal media.

[JLP]

Why do you see that?

Remember Canada and the US share a large border, have LARGE economic ties, cultural ties (even if people don't want to admit it), have many shared mediums, etc...so is it hard to believe that, very often, what's in the best interests of Canada also often mirror the interests of the US? You have such a hate for George Bush that you can't see the forest for the trees...everytime Harper agrees with the US he's a suck-up and every time he disagrees the liberal media won't raise the issue so it's drowned out. Where has the Harper government truly "sucked-up" without it being in the best interest of Canada? <sarcasm>Oh wait, Canada is not supposed to make decisions based on it's needs but is supposed to be a martyr to the world on environment issues, foreign aid and the like...all while 3rd world nations, the US, China, India, and even Europe ignore those same issues...I almost forgot...<sarcasm/>

If the US opens NAFTA Harper will tar and feather them over energy, oil, softwood lumber and the rest of our commodities they so desperately need...which means the US will have to cave on many issues.

I can almost guarantee you that Dion would cave on many issues just to have environmental controls put in place. Everyone would say it's a great idea and we're being "leaders" again on the world stage, blah blah blah....and it would be a noble idea that would promptly cost billions in government grants/loans to implement, then ultimately be ignored and unenforced as per Liberal tradition, not to mention US states and their federal government who also wouldn't implement any of the controls. So, in the end, Canada would lose jobs to increased US protectionism, likely have to increase taxes to "help business implement controls", which would then be shuffled to various non-accountable places (ie. Liberal friendly pockets), all while our economy goes into the toilet due to over taxation and lost jobs...all the while it will be defended by the countries overly large Liberal media.

You are better informed on domestic issues, from my perspective as a Canadian expat I'm commenting on how our country is perceived internationally. I agree these are two very different questions, and sometimes call for a balancing act. As you pointed out Canada is geographically tied to the US (you seem to hate the guy but you may appreciate the Trudeau quip likening living next to the US to sharing a bed with an elephant). You probably guessed this but what concerns me is that Harper doesn't seem to want to play the balancing act vis a vis foreign policy, on international issues wouldn't you agree he is the most US-friendly Canadian PM in decades?

Back to Trudeau, I heard Harper slammed him yesterday. I don't respect a Canadian PM who is more willing to criticize a dead Canadian PM than a live US president.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

Where is Pierre the Great? I thought he'd be all over this and the US conventions etc.

[Jean]

Back to Trudeau, I heard Harper slammed him yesterday

Not really. What Harper said is than Dion is more to the left than Trudeau was.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

How ironic. Both dysfunctional Harper and Dion being the traditional party leaders might give the NDP a historic breakthrough in this election. Wierd irony. As much as NDPers might hate these 2 guys, they might end on smoking a cigar on account of it

Edited August 30, 2008 by Athlétique.Canadien

[Zowpeb]

You are better informed on domestic issues, from my perspective as a Canadian expat I'm commenting on how our country is perceived internationally. I agree these are two very different questions, and sometimes call for a balancing act. As you pointed out Canada is geographically tied to the US (you seem to hate the guy but you may appreciate the Trudeau quip likening living next to the US to sharing a bed with an elephant). You probably guessed this but what concerns me is that Harper doesn't seem to want to play the balancing act vis a vis foreign policy, on international issues wouldn't you agree he is the most US-friendly Canadian PM in decades?

Back to Trudeau, I heard Harper slammed him yesterday. I don't respect a Canadian PM who is more willing to criticize a dead Canadian PM than a live US president.

I didn't hate Trudeau...I hated that he put this government in soo much debt that he crippled the success this country COULD have had. Imagine how much further Canada would be if it wasn't mired in debt for the past 30 years. Mulroney made it worse and the Liberals started down a path of making it better...though they had the benefit of a US economy that stayed out of recession for something like a record of ~13 years...which we certainly piggy backed on. Despite that, the Liberals were so anti-American while they were in office it was a joke...they were openly, needlessly, hostile in their comments. If they weren't I believe trade resolutions could have provided this country much more then the surpluses they were bringing in.

In comparison the Conservatives look like they are overt with our neighbors to the south but the reality is that Harper is doing the same thing that most PM's in history have done...respect Canadian needs first and be a diplomat to the US. Chretien and Martin did the exact opposite by enflaming our US counterparts on purpose, which often hurt Canada on trade issues. Anyone notice we don't hear about those same trade issues anymore? It's not because the Conservatives are kow-towing to the US...it's because they're actually providing leadership. JMHO.

Hey, I voted Liberal in the 90's and I actually was hoping for Martin to take over the reigns a lot sooner...Chretien dragged on way too long. Sadly, I still think Martin could have been a fine PM if given a legit opportunity without the mess it turned into...

I know I may sound like a big Conservative but I don't vote on party lines at all. I look for a PM who can be a true leader and I look for a party platform that is fiscally conservative but also tries to balance that with a good social network. My biggest beef is with the WAAAYYYY too large, waaayyy too inefficient, bureaucracy in this country...which leads me to believe we need a Conservative majority government to cut some government jobs and force improved efficiency on them.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

I think Zowpeb raises a good point. We hear time and time again that Harper is pro-Bush and pro-American etc etc. It sometimes comes across like the Grits are wonderful, warm and fuzzy while the Tories are the devil.

I have a question. In what way exactly? Just like a light shining on shadows makes them disappear so too realistic evidence brought forth on an unknown issue will reveal the truth. Perhaps it is true about these "pros" but it's moreso (IMO) brought about by catch phrases. "Harper pro Bush" - Wow look at me, I can say these words. Let's all say them. If enough of the left wing masses say it, it becomes real, right?

So, bring on the evidence. Where's the beef? Where's the links? Show me da money!

Or just say with more empty meaning than truth - Harper pro Bush. Say anything enough times it starts to seem true.

Can't see the forest for the trees?

I have no problem with evidence so surely we can all get specific here.

[JoeLassister]

I think Zowpeb raises a good point. We hear time and time again that Harper is pro-Bush and pro-American etc etc. It sometimes comes across like the Grits are wonderful, warm and fuzzy while the Tories are the devil.

I have a question. In what way exactly? Just like a light shining on shadows makes them disappear so too realistic evidence brought forth on an unknown issue will reveal the truth. Perhaps it is true about these "pros" but it's moreso (IMO) brought about by catch phrases. "Harper pro Bush" - Wow look at me, I can say these words. Let's all say them. If enough of the left wing masses say it, it becomes real, right?

So, bring on the evidence. Where's the beef? Where's the links? Show me da money!

Or just say with more empty meaning than truth - Harper pro Bush. Say anything enough times it starts to seem true.

Can't see the forest for the trees?

I have no problem with evidence so surely we can all get specific here.

For me, this link is VERY simple : Right religious view. On almost every aspects, Harper has the same opinions than Bush. Abortion, homosexuality, teaching creationism, etc. I barely hate everybody who wants to drag the world in this way.

You guys from the "ROC" often forget that religion issue here in Québec wondering why we still elect 30ish deputy election after election. We have in Montreal one of the biggest homesexual population of the world, we have incredible feminist organisations who fought very hard to get abortion legalized and a population who fought really hard some 30 years ago to clean the province from any religious/state interference.

aou asked why some might say BUSH = HARPER, here is why I see this. I'm affraid that if the Tories get soon a majority, Harper speech will end by God Bless Canada...

[Athlétique.Canadien]

For me, this link is VERY simple : Right religious view. On almost every aspects, Harper has the same opinions than Bush. Abortion, homosexuality, teaching creationism, etc. I barely hate everybody who wants to drag the world in this way.

You guys from the "ROC" often forget that religion issue here in Québec wondering why we still elect 30ish deputy election after election. We have in Montreal one of the biggest homesexual population of the world, we have incredible feminist organisations who fought very hard to get abortion legalized and a population who fought really hard some 30 years ago to clean the province from any religious/state interference.

aou asked why some might say BUSH = HARPER, here is why I see this. I'm affraid that if the Tories get soon a majority, Harper speech will end by God Bless Canada...

I'm still referring to a link between the two. Philosophy is one thing. Where exactly are they linked in Harper cowtowing directly to Bush as it relates to Canada?

Anyway, you raise good points. Harper is tending to be more socially on the right lately in his rant. He's clearly trying to shore up the social right vote. Canada is a very socialist county and centrist is key. This may be a big mistake. Unfortunately for those who want him ousted, the party has inside track on polling for winning results. The party tracking machine may be wrong riding per riding. Are they right or wrong? Start hoping the C analysis of the groundlevel is wrong.

Also, he's not as dangerous to minorities or social groups so much as he is just blowing smoke and mirror policies to be the same thing for every voter. Think about it. The people who are lately angry at Harper due to recent right policies wouldn't have voted for him anyway.

Edited August 31, 2008 by Athlétique.Canadien

[zumpano21]

It's so tiring to hear repetitive fear mongering when it comes to the Tories so-called fascist social agenda. It's nothing more than the same black and white ideology practised by the NeoCons down south. And it's time you got called out.

With regards to abortion, homosexuality, or creationism do you honestly think that a Harper majority would actually regress this country to that level? It's unfortunate to think this actually sways your vote. Has he actually come out and hinted that he would rescind abortion laws, persecute homosexuals or enforce the teaching of creationism? Sure there might be a few nutbars on the Tory backbench that believe that crap, but they don't have any significant influence. If this was the case, wouldn't they have already done that down in the US where they are much more hardline? And lastly, I can guarantee you that a few Liberal backbenchers would like to see your taxes raised so they can run more expansive government programs like the one that gave us the sponsorship scandal.

Basically, what I'm saying is that Harper is a reasonable guy and very bright. Regardless of what some of his backbenchers might think, give the guy a little credit for sorting out the nutbars from those with good and progressive ideas.

[JoeLassister]

It's so tiring to hear repetitive fear mongering when it comes to the Tories so-called fascist social agenda. It's nothing more than the same black and white ideology practised by the NeoCons down south. And it's time you got called out.

With regards to abortion, homosexuality, or creationism do you honestly think that a Harper majority would actually regress this country to that level? It's unfortunate to think this actually sways your vote. Has he actually come out and hinted that he would rescind abortion laws, persecute homosexuals or enforce the teaching of creationism? Sure there might be a few nutbars on the Tory backbench that believe that crap, but they don't have any significant influence. If this was the case, wouldn't they have already done that down in the US where they are much more hardline? And lastly, I can guarantee you that a few Liberal backbenchers would like to see your taxes raised so they can run more expansive government programs like the one that gave us the sponsorship scandal.

Basically, what I'm saying is that Harper is a reasonable guy and very bright. Regardless of what some of his backbenchers might think, give the guy a little credit for sorting out the nutbars from those with good and progressive ideas.

In 2006, the free vote for gay-marriage ended up 175 for - 123 against, so yes, I do believe a majority could bring back this issue again.

Abortion now : Tories did try to bring bill C-484.

Creationism : some West provinces already teach this in primary and high school.

Adding the war thing, and Yes, I think a major Tories government could regress the country that much.

[zumpano21]

1 - I hardly see how the gay marriage thing is solely a Tory issue. Many high-ranking Liberals, including cabinet and back benchers, are known to oppose gay marriage.

2 - A fringe member of the Tories did try to bring in C-484 which indirectly may have gone on to become an abortion issue. It went nowhere.

3 - I hardly see how the instruction of creationism in a few Bible schools in Alberta or Saskatchewan could have anything to do with the Tory agenda.

4 - Yes, Harper was pro-Iraq war at the outset. He'd be completely foolish to not have learned from that mistake.

What I'm trying to push here is that the Tory party has grown up from its former fringe mindset. Harper is very keen on winning Quebec eventually and knows that he can never do that buy allowing the nutbars in his party to gain any traction.

Voting for a Liberal party that has boldly dipped its hands in your pocket, while at the same time crying wolf about the Tory party, is a mindset that is inflexible in the minds of many Canadians. It needs to be broken.