The Gainey Effect

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

The Gainey Effect. Mike Boone lost a lot of credibility to me when, after (basically) calling for Carbo's head, he immediately attacked Gainey for firing Carbo. That's the kind of erratic fanboy hysteria we don't need from the media 'pros.' However, he pretty much nails it in his latest post:

There isn't a player on the roster who's been worse since Gainey took over behind the bench, and several have been better.

Bob Gainey is the best possible coach for this team, partly because he is the GM, but mostly because Bob Gainey is just an excellent coach. I always come back to what he did after firing Julien. His usage of Higgins and Komisarek in particular established those guys as bona-fide, potential-impact NHLers, after Julien had relegated them to bottom-tier roster spots. That made a huge difference to the whole rebuild. Bob understands how to manage a bench and how to get the most from his players. I love Guy Carbonneau and I'm sure he will re-emerge as a good coach, or in some other management capacity, but the fact remains that he was not getting the most out of ANY player on the 2008-09 Habs (save maybe Markov, who is so good he'd probably succeed regardless).

Gainey's management is also quieting down what I found to be the most disturbing trend from that losing streak, which was the mass fan conclusion that our players just suck. Plekanec, Higgins, Komisarek, Price, etc., - these have long been blue-chippers, and for a franchise to just give up on them and start another 'rebuild' would be lunacy. Anyway.

There's one fly in the ointment. Gainey is liable to be a better coach than anyone he could hire as his replacement (especially given the sharply limited talent-pool created by Boivin's 'bilingual coaches only' policy). This strikes me as a bit of a pickle. Not only is Bob more likely to fire struggling coaches since he always has an excellent replacement available (i.e., himself) - and that in itself may scare off some potential candidates - but the players themselves may be likely to be critical of a coach who fails to meet the Gainey standard. Do you think it's possible for Bob to more-or-less officially delegate some portion of his GMing duties to Gauthier and remain behind the bench? (Or am I overrating Gainey's abilities? How many of us want to see him be replaced as coach by, say, Bob Hartley? Thoughts?)

[REV-G]

The Gainey Effect. Mike Boone lost a lot of credibility to me when, after (basically) calling for Carbo's head, he immediately attacked Gainey for firing Carbo. That's the kind of erratic fanboy hysteria we don't need from the media 'pros.' However, he pretty much nails it in his latest post:

There isn't a player on the roster who's been worse since Gainey took over behind the bench, and several have been better.

Bob Gainey is the best possible coach for this team, partly because he is the GM, but mostly because Bob Gainey is just an excellent coach. I always come back to what he did after firing Julien. His usage of Higgins and Komisarek in particular established those guys as bona-fide, potential-impact NHLers, after Julien had relegated them to bottom-tier roster spots. That made a huge difference to the whole rebuild. Bob understands how to manage a bench and how to get the most from his players. I love Guy Carbonneau and I'm sure he will re-emerge as a good coach, or in some other management capacity, but the fact remains that he was not getting the most out of ANY player on the 2008-09 Habs (save maybe Markov, who is so good he'd probably succeed regardless).

Gainey's management is also quieting down what I found to be the most disturbing trend from that losing streak, which was the mass fan conclusion that our players just suck. Plekanec, Higgins, Komisarek, Price, etc., - these have long been blue-chippers, and for a franchise to just give up on them and start another 'rebuild' would be lunacy. Anyway.

There's one fly in the ointment. Gainey is liable to be a better coach than anyone he could hire as his replacement (especially given the sharply limited talent-pool created by Boivin's 'bilingual coaches only' policy). This strikes me as a bit of a pickle. Not only is Bob more likely to fire struggling coaches since he always has an excellent replacement available (i.e., himself) - and that in itself may scare off some potential candidates - but the players themselves may be likely to be critical of a coach who fails to meet the Gainey standard. Do you think it's possible for Bob to more-or-less officially delegate some portion of his GMing duties to Gauthier and remain behind the bench? (Or am I overrating Gainey's abilities? How many of us want to see him be replaced as coach by, say, Bob Hartley? Thoughts?)

>>>My guess is that it depends on what Gainey himself wants to do with his life. Maybe Wayne Gretsky is a good example. I'm a liitle surprised that he's still coaching. I thought he'd be a GM or even an owner by now, but it seems that he likes coaching and all that comes with it. So it is mainly his choice, for now.

I think Gainey is in the same position. If he really loves coaching then what you suggested may be what happens. He delegates some of the GM responsibility to Gauthier and does both jobs.

Personally I think Harley may be the next coach, unless Gainey is a gambler and approaches Patrick Roy, which somehow I can't see Gainey taking that kind of a chance. But who knows, anything could happen. I predict that Gainey enjoys the "corporate" role of running the team, dealing with the other GM's and managing, rather than the grind of practices, media, all the travel etc. My question, because I don't know as much about Hartley, is how different or similar is he to Carbonneau? Does he have obvious strengths that Carbonneau didn't or are they very equal when you compare them side by side? Gainey must have had strong reasons for firing Carbonneau, so I'd be interested to know if he thought a Hartley or a Roy could improve upon what Carbonneau achieved.

Edited April 3, 2009 by REV-G

[Easy Ryder]

I do not think Gainey presence intimidate any candidate, a career coach wants to coach anywhere anytime.

About Gainey effect on the team, well it all depend on where the roller coaster is at the moment of the comment.

Saying this today make a lot of sense. Althought everything i heard and read last week was about

how Gainey himself could not make these players going. That it would be a good thing to not make

the playoffs so Gainey should leave his GM and coach job, to let everyone of our UFA's go and start it

from brand new.

All year long Sutter(devils) kept a strong hand on the Devils without Brodeur, now they can't find a way to win.

Lamoriello despite being an horrible coach must be juggling with the idea of going behind the bench to straigh things up.

So the point is wait till the season is over before making any assumption on the coach future.

[sbhatt]

Since there are no real number-one centers available as UFAs this summer, and Vinny is just too big a gamble with health issues and is seriously overpaid in a lowered cap situation, might it be the best solution for Bob to not only extend Tanguay, but to give Koivu and Kovy SHORT extensions and stay behind the bench next season? That line is as good as any in the league with Bob giving them their marching orders.

[alexstream]

rev-g, you can edit your post to get your actual post out of the quote.

[Chris]

They are 2 games over 500 with BG and they have played nothing but bottom feeders. The good teams still bombed them. They have 2 soft teams left on the schedule and 3 playoff teams on the schedule.

The season isn't over, They still may not make it.

Any BG "effect" should be measured by playoff results or lack of results.

The players boss is now just 2 feet behind them all the time currently, i beleive everyone has changed there behavior and work ethic.

[saskhab]

It's early, but there are a couple of players who have gotten worse since Gainey arrived, namely Pleaknec and Kostitsyn, but they were prone to inconsistencies under Carbo and their struggles could be a coincidence. I also don't think it's a coincidence that Tanguay's return has sparked some of the struggling offensive players, either. Not to mention Latendresse's return re-sparking what had been a very successful Carbo creation (Lats-Laps-Tom). Injuries play a huge role, and unfortunately for Guy, a lot of the wrong guys got injured for him. It's possible that had those key players stayed healthy, other players would've found their game rather than lose their confidence. For Guy, once Lang went down, he had almost no one that was having a good year for him left save Markov.

I don't think Gainey can be our full-time coach unless he relinquished the GM duties, which he won't do. It's simply too demanding to be both, and in a lot of respects, being the GM is less demanding on a day-to-day basis (and a more secure gig). We need a quality coach, no doubt about it. I'd definitely seek Tanguay's opinion on Hartley, he's definitely a useful guy to have around in dealing with finding a new coach... he's had Hartley as a coach, Roy as a teammate/roommate even, and he even had Crawford when he was breaking into the league.

I never thought our players were garbage. My priority list for bringing players back remains unchanged from the beginning of March. A couple of other players have given me some pause, but they aren't jumping ahead of anyone. The plan moving forward should remain the same.

[Chris]

Sakhab, my opinion of the players haven't changed either. I am stiil don't resign anyone besides Tanguay and Komi if it's at or less the 4 mill.

These guys have proved that they are nothing but fighting for an 8th seed, coach killers, lazy and unwilling to sustain or unable to sustain long periods of hard work.

I do agree with injuries may have played a role in the slide. Tanguay is head and shoulders the best talent on the team, his brain seems even better then Kovalev's when it comes to making things happen offensively. Many times he has moved the puck to a player not expecting it and the play fails because he linemates aren't prepared. I really like his game.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Like you said, habs fans tend to under rate the players when things are going really bad but the reverse is true when things are going really good.

Gainey has masterful interpersonal skills. He is easy to respect and his gentle attitude is surely welcome. People like that make others feel great about themselves and pump them with confidence. Is his hockey knowledge better than Carbo's? I really don't know.

I think it would be outstanding if Gainey continued on as coach/GM.

However I am very cautious about Koivu and Kovalev. They have been great lately but what about the previous 60 games?

[HABBER-oooooKNOWS]

Since there are no real number-one centers available as UFAs this summer, and Vinny is just too big a gamble with health issues and is seriously overpaid in a lowered cap situation, might it be the best solution for Bob to not only extend Tanguay, but to give Koivu and Kovy SHORT extensions and stay behind the bench next season? That line is as good as any in the league with Bob giving them their marching orders.

Are my eyes deceiving me? Well I guess at the end of the day you are a Habs fan and are entitled to ride the wagon at your leisure. Just be careful, jumping on and off can really take a toll on the knees. Ya ya, "SHORT" I get it, but last week you wouldn't even consider it. Bob's best solution? He might not really have a choice if they all walk. It kills me how you think that all Bob has to do is throw a few nuts towards these guys and they'll come screaming "Please Bob, Please can we stay in Montreal for free and short term!"

All three of them will have value this summer. Koivu, Tanguay, Kovalev. In that order, and if Bob insults them with an offer that might be similar to the one you are thinking ( I could just imagine ) they are all gone.

No good centers available in this summers UFA camp? I can think of one who will have at least 15 substantial offers come July 1st if Gainey doesn't lock him up. I've heard through the grapevine that it's already done but hey we'll have to wait and see.

[BTH]

Are my eyes deceiving me? Well I guess at the end of the day you are a Habs fan and are entitled to ride the wagon at your leisure. Just be careful, jumping on and off can really take a toll on the knees. Ya ya, "SHORT" I get it, but last week you wouldn't even consider it. Bob's best solution? He might not really have a choice if they all walk. It kills me how you think that all Bob has to do is throw a few nuts towards these guys and they'll come screaming "Please Bob, Please can we stay in Montreal for free and short term!"

All three of them will have value this summer. Koivu, Tanguay, Kovalev. In that order, and if Bob insults them with an offer that might be similar to the one you are thinking ( I could just imagine ) they are all gone.

No good centers available in this summers UFA camp? I can think of one who will have at least 15 substantial offers come July 1st if Gainey doesn't lock him up. I've heard through the grapevine that it's already done but hey we'll have to wait and see.

No player is worth signing at all costs. If it'll take more than 3M to re-sign Koivu or Kovalev, it'd only be worth it if we were desperate (or made it to the finals) and even then, it'd have to be short term.

[BCHabnut]

Say goobye to them then. You will never get them for that. Saku is 34 years old. If there aren't that many centres up this year, I'm sure he'll gert more than that. He's a .81 point per game player. That is good. That isn't elite, but it's not elite money either. Other GMs will salivate over Saku for 3.5 million if Gainey only offers 3.

Kovy is 36. He's in very good shape. He's a .82 point per game player with twelve 20+ goal years and the best stick handler in the league. He has also shown that he is not a bitch. When Gainey called him out, he didn't whine and crawl under a shell. He manned up, said that he was looking forward to coming back and contributing. I think Kovy will get 4.5 to 5 mill offered to him by other GMs next year.

[habs rule]

OK here is the plan for next year. We appoint Guy as another asst gm (hell we're paying him anyway) he and guathier can handle the day to day stuff with bob overseeing, Bob remains as head coach with Don lever running practices and handling the majority of the non game duties. We have the best of all worlds.

[BTH]

Say goobye to them then. You will never get them for that. Saku is 34 years old. If there aren't that many centres up this year, I'm sure he'll gert more than that. He's a .81 point per game player. That is good. That isn't elite, but it's not elite money either. Other GMs will salivate over Saku for 3.5 million if Gainey only offers 3.

Kovy is 36. He's in very good shape. He's a .82 point per game player with twelve 20+ goal years and the best stick handler in the league. He has also shown that he is not a bitch. When Gainey called him out, he didn't whine and crawl under a shell. He manned up, said that he was looking forward to coming back and contributing. I think Kovy will get 4.5 to 5 mill offered to him by other GMs next year.

That's perfectly fine. We'll be hurting our franchise if we re-sign them at what the market says they're worth. We need to draw a line somewhere for every contract.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Here we go again.

I think we can ALL agree that this team needs an upgrade on Koivu in particular - and also Kovalev. Having those two as our 'best players' (Tanguay notwithstanding) is one of the Habs' most fundamental structural problems. Koivu is no longer a #1 C, if he ever was, and for most of this season has not even been a very good #2 C. Kovalev has never consistently produced at the level of a first-line scoring threat and is ideally cast as a lethal secondary scorer.

This leads some people to advocate getting rid of them. Understandable. But the problem is that the Habs are much better with them than without them. While there's a decent chance Kostitsyn could replace Kovalev's production on the wing, without Koivu, Plekanec is our #1 C - *shudder* -and who is our 2nd line C? Metropolit??? Without them, in other words, we're not a playoff team.

So you can't just 'get rid of them.' You have to replace them (preferably for a significant upgrade). But there's absolutely no guarantee of that happening.

This will be an enormous dilemma for Gainey. If he tries to sign Koivu to what he's actually worth - say, a two-year deal at most, and for no more than $3 mil - he risks losing him altogether, with absolutely zero guarantee of being able to sign some other UFA centreman as replacement. But the no-Koivu-replacement scenario is his worst nightmare. Perhaps he could salvage something by hugely overpaying for a Mike Cammalleri, assuming someone like that is available. But experience shows that relying on UFA signings is an incredibly high-risk staregy in Montreal, since UFAs tend to avoid us.

Further, Tanguay may be reluctant to re-sign if he has no assurances of a top-quality C. He knows he has chemistry with Koivu; if Koivu walks, Tanguay may well decline the 'privilege' of being centred by Plekanec and his whopping 39 points.

So even though we can all agree that we need to upgrade those players, it's not as simple as absolutely refusing to overpay or just letting them walk. My guess is Koivu will be re-signed for a couple of seasons at closer to $4 mil. Kovalev may well be offered a low-ball contract and allowed to leave if he doesn't like it. Then Bob will try to add another top-6 forward via free agency. But whatever the outcome, we have to remember just how delicate our position is here.

Edited April 3, 2009 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[sbhatt]

Don't get me wrong, I still think we need an upgrade on Koivu...but can one be had without giving up too much in a trade...or taking on a contract that will all but cripple the team? This is not the best summer for UFA number-one centermen....and unfortunately, timing is everything in matters like this. I'm not all that high on Cammalleri; he represents yet another smurf and yet another left-handed shot to boot.

[KEEP26]

i think we are playing better because bob as done one thing diff, players have roles...with guy, like most of us been saying, he change the lines to much, you never knew if you were a first line player or a fourth liner, and that cause problems with the players and pissed them off..ask ryder, last season he was all over the place on the team till he lost job, to younger Kos, who guy did the same thing to him this year till he got send down..you cant put guys like ryder and s kos on the fouth line and get pissed off when they dont score with only 7 min ice time a night...or when they cant be grinder or a shut down line..when they were never that type of player.....i think with coaching you got to know your players and the best way to use them..so like the rock would say, know your role...lol

go habs go

[BTH]

So even though we can all agree that we need to upgrade those players, it's not as simple as absolutely refusing to overpay or just letting them walk. My guess is Koivu will be re-signed for a couple of seasons at closer to $4 mil. Kovalev may well be offered a low-ball contract and allowed to leave if he doesn't like it. Then Bob will try to add another top-6 forward via free agency. But whatever the outcome, we have to remember just how delicate our position is here.

If Bob does bring in a 1st line C, it would make Koivu redundant and a waste of money (at 4-5M). This means that we'll have to eventually choose between using Koivu as a leader and bringing in an upgrade. We can't have both. The probably is obviously that we risk losing Koivu and failing to get our hands on any replacement. But if you want an improvement at C - or at RW - we'll have to let our current guys go. Overpaying guys out of desperation isn't going to help us any. I'd try hard to bring someone in by trade at the draft. Then we'll know what the situation is by free agency.

[sbhatt]

Watching this re-tooled powerplay asbolutely dismantle teams lately, I can't help but think back to the 1991 Stanley Cup playoffs. An average team with many flaws, but having several offensive weapons, rode a lethal powerplay all the way to the Finals. That team was the Minnesota North Stars, and the man behind the bench was.....BOB GAINEY.

Edited April 5, 2009 by sbhatt

[KoZed]

Kovalev = 14 pts in the last 6 games

Koivu = 9 pts in the last 6 games

Tanguay = 10 pts in the last 6 games.

Latendresse = 5 goals in the last 8 games

Theres your "Bob Effect" right there. The first two were stinking up the joint for the first 4 months of the season until Tanguay -- who missed 2 months from January to March -- got them going; and the Habs had no secondary scoring until Latendresse -- who missed 2 months as well -- came back.

[Habsy]

Kovalev = 14 pts in the last 6 games

Koivu = 9 pts in the last 6 games

Tanguay = 10 pts in the last 6 games.

Latendresse = 5 goals in the last 8 games

Theres your "Bob Effect" right there. The first two were stinking up the joint for the first 4 months of the season until Tanguay -- who missed 2 months from January to March -- got them going; and the Habs had no secondary scoring until Latendresse -- who missed 2 months as well -- came back.

So Bob's had no effect? Is that what you're trying to tell us all?

[KoZed]

So Bob's had no effect? Is that what you're trying to tell us all?

Draw your own conclusions. You still have a long time ago anyways...