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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

If they really wanted Zadina, don't make an offer, just let them take Zadina. 

 

How would Montreal ever have the knowledge that they would 100% take Zadina? If the Carolina GM has half of a brain cell, he wouldn't disclose that information without trying to solicit an asset.

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2 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

If they really wanted Zadina, don't make an offer, just let them take Zadina. 

 

I mean sure, you can have a situation like Columbus/Edmonton, which is currently working out for Columbus.

 

But if Carolina wants to trade down, do you say no in an attempt to play hardball so they just take Zadina? Or do you make sure you get Svech, even if it costs 1/4 second rounders?

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1 hour ago, illWill said:

 

How would Montreal ever have the knowledge that they would 100% take Zadina? If the Carolina GM has half of a brain cell, he wouldn't disclose that information without trying to solicit an asset.

 

You wouldn't.

 

But if they are trying to move the pick, it means they aren't sold on Svechnikov. 

Svechnikov is the easy pick at 2.  If they are trying to sell that pick, it means they are scared of the Russian factor. 

 

You sit tight and let them make their pick. 

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25 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

You wouldn't.

 

But if they are trying to move the pick, it means they aren't sold on Svechnikov. 

Svechnikov is the easy pick at 2.  If they are trying to sell that pick, it means they are scared of the Russian factor. 

 

You sit tight and let them make their pick

 

If they are trying to sell the pick then somebody will move up and get Svechnikov. I'd rather it be the Habs that does than anyone else. 

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7 hours ago, Trizzak said:

 

If they are trying to sell the pick then somebody will move up and get Svechnikov. I'd rather it be the Habs that does than anyone else. 

 

Exactly. Ottawa and Arizona could make a good deal as well and ensure you lose out on Svech. If he's an upgrade to Zadina you do it. Especially if their price wasn't much more than one of four second round picks.

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11 hours ago, illWill said:

 

How would Montreal ever have the knowledge that they would 100% take Zadina? If the Carolina GM has half of a brain cell, he wouldn't disclose that information without trying to solicit an asset.

Bergevin could simply ask them at draft when the #2 pick is up, who they are taking and make offer if really horny on getting the Russian kid.

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10 hours ago, Trizzak said:

 

If they are trying to sell the pick then somebody will move up and get Svechnikov. I'd rather it be the Habs that does than anyone else. 

 

If the idea is that the Canes want Zadina... they can't trade with someone else... as there is a good chance Montreal would grab Zadina. 

 

They could lose their guy.

 

 

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Its a poker game, don't get bluffed out of giving up a valuable pick for no reason. 

 

Keep your cards close to the chest.  Don't let Carolina know who you are going to take at third overall.  If they don't know, they can't confidently trade to 4, or 5, or 6, and know that their player will still be there.  The Habs might take him at 3. 

 

If there guy is Zadina, or if its Tkachuk, or if its Hughes, the only way to be sure to get him is to take him at 2....  the Canes have to fear that they could miss their pick if they trade below you. 

 

Force them to show their cards at 2, you have the leverage. 

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12 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Its a poker game, don't get bluffed out of giving up a valuable pick for no reason. 

 

Keep your cards close to the chest.  Don't let Carolina know who you are going to take at third overall.  If they don't know, they can't confidently trade to 4, or 5, or 6, and know that their player will still be there.  The Habs might take him at 3. 

 

If there guy is Zadina, or if its Tkachuk, or if its Hughes, the only way to be sure to get him is to take him at 2....  the Canes have to fear that they could miss their pick if they trade below you. 

 

Force them to show their cards at 2, you have the leverage. 

 

And then they just take Svech because you gave them the time to re-evaluate their scouting instead of taking advantage of their current position.

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2 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

And then they just take Svech because you gave them the time to re-evaluate their scouting instead of taking advantage of their current position.

 

 

Bullshit.  If they haven't figured it out already, they aren't going to figure out that Svech is the 2nd best player in the draft now. 

 

There are two options here. 

 

1) The owner is rational enough to let his scouting staff take the best player available. 

2) The owner is a ####ing nut job who will pass on Svechnikov cause he wants to pair Necas and Zadina, or because he is afraid of russians, or because he wants an american star... whatever the reason, it doesn't matter. 

 

If its option 1.. they are taking Svech and your second round pick offer does nothing. 

If its option 2... you can't fix crazy... no amount of time is going to fix crazy. 

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On a different (but similar) note.

I hate the team, but I look at what Bill Belichick does every single year in New England and it works. 

 

never trade up. 

Trade down and get more picks whenever possible. 

 

Statistically people overvalue the trade up.  I already hear a ton of people saying we should trade 35 and 39 for a pick in the mid-twenties... thats dumb.  

Accumulate picks... take more swings... the more second rounders you have, the better.  We have 4... if two become top 6/top 4 players and two bust out, we are already ahead of the game. 

 

There are a ton of centres and puck moving D in the second round.  Guys who have real potential, but have one or two small flaws to work on.  Take 4 of them... and figure out if a couple can fix that issue.  There is very little statistical difference in players making the NHL and being impact players drafted at 25, or drafted at 30-40.... so keep the extra picks. 

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

On a different (but similar) note.

I hate the team, but I look at what Bill Belichick does every single year in New England and it works. 

 

never trade up. 

Trade down and get more picks whenever possible. 

 

Statistically people overvalue the trade up.  I already hear a ton of people saying we should trade 35 and 39 for a pick in the mid-twenties... thats dumb.  

Accumulate picks... take more swings... the more second rounders you have, the better.  We have 4... if two become top 6/top 4 players and two bust out, we are already ahead of the game. 

 

There are a ton of centres and puck moving D in the second round.  Guys who have real potential, but have one or two small flaws to work on.  Take 4 of them... and figure out if a couple can fix that issue.  There is very little statistical difference in players making the NHL and being impact players drafted at 25, or drafted at 30-40.... so keep the extra picks. 

 

would you trade the 56 and ? in 2nd round for another in the 1st?

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

On a different (but similar) note.

I hate the team, but I look at what Bill Belichick does every single year in New England and it works. 

 

never trade up. 

Trade down and get more picks whenever possible. 

 

Statistically people overvalue the trade up.  I already hear a ton of people saying we should trade 35 and 39 for a pick in the mid-twenties... thats dumb.  

Accumulate picks... take more swings... the more second rounders you have, the better.  We have 4... if two become top 6/top 4 players and two bust out, we are already ahead of the game. 

 

There are a ton of centres and puck moving D in the second round.  Guys who have real potential, but have one or two small flaws to work on.  Take 4 of them... and figure out if a couple can fix that issue.  There is very little statistical difference in players making the NHL and being impact players drafted at 25, or drafted at 30-40.... so keep the extra picks. 

Tinordi and Crisp were two of most recent trade-ups...how did that work? When were more skilled guys available, without trading up at all. But, I still think was a push from Molson to add size, so his team wouldn't be called smurfs any more.

 

6 minutes ago, ehjay said:

 

would you trade the 56 and ? in 2nd round for another in the 1st?

No, likely better value to trade down or even to next year's draft, to trade up you need to overpay in pick value.

 

Here are two of a hundred different draftpick value bits:

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

 

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

On a different (but similar) note.

I hate the team, but I look at what Bill Belichick does every single year in New England and it works. 

 

never trade up. 

Trade down and get more picks whenever possible. 

 

Statistically people overvalue the trade up.  I already hear a ton of people saying we should trade 35 and 39 for a pick in the mid-twenties... thats dumb.  

Accumulate picks... take more swings... the more second rounders you have, the better.  We have 4... if two become top 6/top 4 players and two bust out, we are already ahead of the game. 

 

There are a ton of centres and puck moving D in the second round.  Guys who have real potential, but have one or two small flaws to work on.  Take 4 of them... and figure out if a couple can fix that issue.  There is very little statistical difference in players making the NHL and being impact players drafted at 25, or drafted at 30-40.... so keep the extra picks. 

 

I generally agree.

 

That said I wish when there was a Russian panic we traded up to get Tarasenkl, traded up for Kuznetsov instead of Tinordi, and got another 2nd rounder to get Kucherov. We should have been like teams in the late 80s and went Russian crazy. Oh well.

 

(I also don't buy the talk of Carolina trading or selecting Zadina and just think they are the en vogue team for everyone to think are dumb and easy to manipulate right now due to the owner.)

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2 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

(I also don't buy the talk of Carolina trading or selecting Zadina and just think they are the en vogue team for everyone to think are dumb and easy to manipulate right now due to the owner.)

 

 

If thats true, then they aren't giving up the 2nd overall for the third and the 35th. 

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4 minutes ago, Commandant said:

If thats true, then they aren't giving up the 2nd overall for the third and the 35th. 

 

Correct. It was a hypothetical based on a rumour.

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21 minutes ago, ehjay said:

 

would you trade the 56 and ? in 2nd round for another in the 1st?

 

When i look at the chances of a player making the NHL, I'd rather keep our two 50s picks than get say 25. 

 

That said, most teams won't give you a pick at 25 for 2 picks in the 50s. 

 

Historical results... what is the trade value of a pick vs how often players in those picks succeed tells us that NHL teams generally are overvaluing late first round picks vs second rounders and have been for quite some time.  Its a market inefficiency. 

I'd even trade down... something like my 35th pick for say 45, plus a 2nd rounder in 2019. 

 

The market hasn't caught up to the research right now... and generally in those spots you are better to lose a few spaces and gain extra picks. 

 

(The same may not apply to picks in the very top of the draft though).

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9 hours ago, ehjay said:

 

would you trade the 56 and ? in 2nd round for another in the 1st?

So say it would be #56 - 178 & #35 - 222 = 400

For pick # 27 =297

 

Smart investor or a Billichek wouldn't consider trying to trade up, when there always will be some GM willing to toss in that extra pick and overpay to move up a few spots.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, DON said:

So say it would be #56 - 178 & #35 - 222 = 400

For pick # 27 =297

 

Smart investor or a Billichek wouldn't consider trying to trade up, when there always will be some GM willing to toss in that extra pick and overpay to move up a few spots.

 

 

I think you make that move at the draft, if there is someone that has slipped a bit that you really want and don’t think will be around in the 2nd.  I don’t see the point of making a move like that earlier, not knowing who will be on the board when you pick.

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47 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

  I think you make that move at the draft, if there is someone that has slipped a bit that you really want and don’t think will be around in the 2nd.  I don’t see the point of making a move like that earlier, not knowing who will be on the board when you pick.

Again, to trade up I don't think has a good track record, I thought you mentioned that a while ago? Or am I misremembering?

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50 minutes ago, DON said:

Again, to trade up I don't think has a good track record, I thought you mentioned that a while ago? Or am I misremembering?

I haven’t mentioned trading up before.  The only time I remember us trading up recently in the first round was to draft Tinordi - another pick driven by size and character fetish (bloodlines.  If we are going to trade up, I would hope it is to draft guys like Fowler, or Forsberg who inexplicably dropped - I remember at one time, Forsberg, galchenyuk, yakapov, Murray and gigerenko were  all considered as potential #1 picks.

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13 minutes ago, Habopotamus said:

Dreger was saying this morning that he's heard speculative rumours that Montreal isn't on Tavares' list of teams

 

Yeah, I'm not buying anything anyone has to say about Tavares and who his teams are until he's in the window of taking interviews with teams.

 

I don't believe he's coming to Montreal at all, but I wouldn't believe even Bob McKenzie on anyone knowing. John is a private guy. He hasn't revealed a thing. He isn't accidentally liking Twitter posts like Stamkos did. It's fun to speculate but I don't believe Dreger for a second about the list until we start hearing about appointments. 

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11 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I haven’t mentioned trading up before.  The only time I remember us trading up recently in the first round was to draft Tinordi - another pick driven by size and character fetish (bloodlines.  If we are going to trade up, I would hope it is to draft guys like Fowler, or Forsberg who inexplicably dropped - I remember at one time, Forsberg, galchenyuk, yakapov, Murray and gigerenko were  all considered as potential #1 picks.

We traded up for Lernout too

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11 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I haven’t mentioned trading up before.  The only time I remember us trading up recently in the first round was to draft Tinordi - another pick driven by size and character fetish (bloodlines.  If we are going to trade up, I would hope it is to draft guys like Fowler, or Forsberg who inexplicably dropped - I remember at one time, Forsberg, galchenyuk, yakapov, Murray and gigerenko were  all considered as potential #1 picks.

I was big on Galchenyuk and Dumba ...knowing Yakapov would go #1. Murray really has had a hard go with injuries.. but par for course for Columbus and their high picks.

 

12 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

We traded up for Lernout too

Forgot about that one, moved up 15spots (73rd for picks 87th and 117th). Wonder what kind of pre-season he will have this fall, don't think will be a spot for him on Habs roster, unless maybe if Benn is traded?

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