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There is no evidence that guys who are fallers in the draft are better than players who didn't fall, or better than players who are rising.

 

For every Cam Fowler, there is a Brandon Gormley, Angelo Esposito, or John MacFarland who "inexplicably" fell in draft rankings and turned out to be busts.

 

There is also no proof that guys who rise late in the draft process are better or worse either. 

 

Suffice it to say, all we have that means anything, is where guys fell in the draft... and we know that 2 seconds is better than a pick in the 20s. 

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

There is no evidence that guys who are fallers in the draft are better than players who didn't fall, or better than players who are rising.

 

For every Cam Fowler, there is a Brandon Gormley, Angelo Esposito, or John MacFarland who "inexplicably" fell in draft rankings and turned out to be busts.

 

There is also no proof that guys who rise late in the draft process are better or worse either. 

 

Suffice it to say, all we have that means anything, is where guys fell in the draft... and we know that 2 seconds is better than a pick in the 20s. 

 

As someone who was vocally negative about Cam Fowler, let me be clear: If Cam Fowler didn't go to the most perfect situation for his career (his freaking last name is FOWLER) he might have busted.

 

Fowler didn't just get a few tips from Scott Neidermayer. He lived with Neidermayer. Neidermayer was his defensive coach and made him his number one priority for the Ducks. Neidermayer helped Fowler out on the stuff that was his biggest issue in the OHL. He used to lose track of the puck and glide on pure physical ability. Neidermayer taught him a lot about defence I didn't know was in him. I've eaten cro...fowl on that one, but at least I know why.

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1 hour ago, DON said:

 

The odds aren't great, but, rejecting the pessimistic myth that free agents hate Montreal, I refuse to believe it can't happen. Let's put together the biggest possible offer and see.

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Nope. I fully expect he'll go to FA and visit the Habs, then have a nice presser saying how impressed he was with the team and facilities, but that team X was the best fit for him. Bergevin will then state how hard it is to acquire a center, then trade Patches, Mete, one of their 2nd rounders for Anisimov and Duclair, resigning Duclair to a mid length deal. And people thought the Habs were kicking the tires on Toews....ha!

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26 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

The odds aren't great, but, rejecting the pessimistic myth that free agents hate Montreal, I refuse to believe it can't happen. Let's put together the biggest possible offer and see.

 

After finding out that Toronto scared Stamkos from meeting with anyone (including Montreal) by bringing the mayor and owner of Canadian Tire, I wonder if anyone tries that with Tavares. 

 

But yeah my view is that until Tavares says otherwise, every team has a shot. Every team will make the offer he wants, or thinks he wants. If a team gets him close to the cap, they will make room for him. So Montreal has a shot, but we are trusting Marc Bergevin with that shot. Sorry if my confidence is dirt low.

 

Let me put it this way. It won't be due to a great meeting that Tavares comes to Montreal. It will be because he always wanted to play here and knew he was coming before anyone else did. If that's the case, all Bergevin and Molson can do is change his mind to no.

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1 hour ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

So Montreal has a shot, but we are trusting Marc Bergevin with that shot. Sorry if my confidence is dirt low.

 

Let me put it this way. It won't be due to a great meeting that Tavares comes to Montreal. It will be because he always wanted to play here and knew he was coming before anyone else did. If that's the case, all Bergevin and Molson can do is change his mind to no.

 

So if Tavares doesn't come to Montreal it is Bergevin's fault, but if he does come, it has nothing to do with Bergevin. Gotcha 

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1 hour ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

After finding out that Toronto scared Stamkos from meeting with anyone (including Montreal) by bringing the mayor and owner of Canadian Tire, I wonder if anyone tries that with Tavares. 

 

But yeah my view is that until Tavares says otherwise, every team has a shot. Every team will make the offer he wants, or thinks he wants. If a team gets him close to the cap, they will make room for him. So Montreal has a shot, but we are trusting Marc Bergevin with that shot. Sorry if my confidence is dirt low.

 

Let me put it this way. It won't be due to a great meeting that Tavares comes to Montreal. It will be because he always wanted to play here and knew he was coming before anyone else did. If that's the case, all Bergevin and Molson can do is change his mind to no.

 

Actually, the evidence we have is that Bergevin is a great talker. Terrible GM but a great talker. He's super popular with his old teammates, has enjoyed many allies in the media, and obviously did a great job of talking Molson and Savard into hiring him - and continues to do a great job of conning Molson into not firing him despite ample evidence of his incompetence. So to the extent that Tavares's decision is affected by meetings, I suspect meeting with Bergevin will actually help. Only if JT starts to look at the body of work (or the comical dearth of defencemen to get him the puck) will he flee in the other direction.

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I dislike Bergevin, relatively speaking, but it gets tiring hearing the mistakes he might make rather than discussing the ones he already has made. What’s even more peculiar is that no one agrees on the mistakes he has made. There are groups of people who hate this move, but didn’t mind another, and then there are groups of people who disliked the move other people liked and vice versa.

 

People want him fired. That’s fine. Making up futuristic moves that look bad and saying them out loud won’t get him fired though. Bergevin has been questionable, in my opinion, but our team isn’t the circus act some people describe. I want to wait until late August before I criticize Bergevin for another bad off season. It’s easy to say it’s too little too late, or whatever, but we don’t have the power to fire him and it’s also not true that he can’t right the ship. I personally sincerely feel that Bergevin could produce an effective team with some of the pieces we have, he just doesn’t really deserve that opportunity.

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3 hours ago, illWill said:

 

So if Tavares doesn't come to Montreal it is Bergevin's fault, but if he does come, it has nothing to do with Bergevin. Gotcha 

 

Imagine you are Marc Bergevin trying to convince John Tavares to come to Montreal. You have to convince him that signing here for the next seven years is the best career decision he will ever make. You have to find something that this club you've been building for the past seven years has something that the 30 other NHL teams don't, and certainly not something he could have in Long Island along with another year of contract. The banners don't matter much when he was 3 years old the last time this team won a Cup. Two out of three failed seasons. Carey Price is entering his new eight year contract after probably the worst season of his career. Shea Weber is returning after a season ending injury. You are going from Matthew Barzal as your other centre to Jonathan Drouin. Claude Julien is coaching, who has a losing record since coming back to the Canadiens. 

 

What can Bergevin possibly say that's gonna bring him to Montreal? There's nothing. If I'm wrong and Johnny T is talking about some masterplan that Bergevin laid out for him that he's buying 100% into, hey, I'll change my tune and give full credit to Bergevin. But if he comes out and even once says, "I always wanted to be a Montreal Canadien" then that tells me it didn't matter what Bergevin or anyone else did. It was completely based on his own dream. No different to when Briere and Radulov came here, as Briere wanted to play for the Habs once before he retired (and turned down more money in Nashville and Calgary) while Radulov loved Quebec as a junior player and agreed to one year instead of two. That's not brilliant negotiating. Also it was the Habs in the locker room that convinced Jeff Petry to come. He said as much. But hey, points to convincing Karl Alzner to come here and not take any more interviews.

 

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Actually, the evidence we have is that Bergevin is a great talker. Terrible GM but a great talker. He's super popular with his old teammates, has enjoyed many allies in the media, and obviously did a great job of talking Molson and Savard into hiring him - and continues to do a great job of conning Molson into not firing him despite ample evidence of his incompetence. So to the extent that Tavares's decision is affected by meetings, I suspect meeting with Bergevin will actually help. Only if JT starts to look at the body of work (or the comical dearth of defencemen to get him the puck) will he flee in the other direction.

 

It was a choice between Marc Bergevin and Pierre McGuire. It's not like he beat anyone of value for the job. 

 

As for help? First person John Tavares will talk to about Montreal would be P.K. Subban. That's why the media is wondering if he wants to goto Nashville (which I am 99% certain is merely speculation and nothing to do with actual insider knowledge) to play with Subban. The only other player mentioned to being an influence in bringing Tavares to their city is Steven Stamkos. 

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Well, what's the pitch for Montreal?

 

-An organization with stable ownership and among the best facilities in all of hockey

-Classic NHL city with passionate fans who will make you the hero of the century if you contribute like you can. No more toiling in obscurity. This is the real Big Time - as big as hockey gets this side of Toronto. Be the superstar you deserve to be.

-The Bell Centre is renowned as one of the most exciting buildings in the league. Be part of that every night.

-A team that has had 'everything go wrong' and has punched below its weight, primed for a comeback season. Be part of that incredible, unique excitement you can only get in Montreal when the team surpasses expectations (I don't believe this myself, but that's what I'd pitch to a UFA)

-One of the league's favourite cities to visit. Come and live in the most European city in North America, enjoy the 'spice' that that brings.

-Two core players, in Weber and Price, who have outsized reputations in the league. Plus you know and like them from your international play. The three of you will make a Cup-worthy core.

-Several young players, like Drouin, Galy, Mete, Zadina or whomever, who are set to 'take another step' with you solidifying the roster. Be part of a renaissance in Montreal.

-An accomplished, Cup-winning coach

 

And, oh yeah, here is a contract to make you the highest-paid player in the NHL with a full NMC and the maximum term length.

 

Meanwhile, I'm Marc Bergevin, so I make a lot of jokes and try to bond with the guy on a human level. Make him think of me as a guy he'd enjoy playing for.

 

It's hardly a knock-out pitch, but IF (as rumoured) Tavares is an old-school guy who admires Original Six appeal, it's not obviously a 'fail.'

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20 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Well, what's the pitch for Montreal?

 

-An organization with stable ownership and among the best facilities in all of hockey

-Classic NHL city with passionate fans who will make you the hero of the century if you contribute like you can. No more toiling in obscurity. This is the real Big Time - as big as hockey gets this side of Toronto. Be the superstar you deserve to be.

-The Bell Centre is renowned as one of the most exciting buildings in the league. Be part of that every night.

-A team that has had 'everything go wrong' and has punched below its weight, primed for a comeback season. Be part of that incredible, unique excitement you can only get in Montreal when the team surpasses expectations (I don't believe this myself, but that's what I'd pitch to a UFA)

-One of the league's favourite cities to visit. Come and live in the most European city in North America, enjoy the 'spice' that that brings.

-Two core players, in Weber and Price, who have outsized reputations in the league. Plus you know and like them from your international play. The three of you will make a Cup-worthy core.

-Several young players, like Drouin, Galy, Mete, Zadina or whomever, who are set to 'take another step' with you solidifying the roster. Be part of a renaissance in Montreal.

-An accomplished, Cup-winning coach

 

And, oh yeah, here is a contract to make you the highest-paid player in the NHL with a full NMC and the maximum term length.

 

Meanwhile, I'm Marc Bergevin, so I make a lot of jokes and try to bond with the guy on a human level. Make him think of me as a guy he'd enjoy playing for.

 

It's hardly a knock-out pitch, but IF (as rumoured) Tavares is an old-school guy who admires Original Six appeal, it's not obviously a 'fail.'

 

Nothing here someone else can't offer. One of those is trying to make chicken shit look like chicken salad (oh wow, everything went wrong, boy that sounds like something I want to step into), and another ("several young players") is something the Islanders can claim and he has seen it first hand. We have nobody close to Barzal. It's actually kind of scary how many of those points the Leafs could say, while also adding Auston Matthews, hometown hero status, and a team on the rise.

 

And, oh yeah, everyone can offer to make him the highest paid player. That was the thing about the Stamkos negotiation in Toronto. They offered to make him the highest paid player in the league *and* ensure him a lucrative Canadian Tire sponsorship that would pay him on top of that, free from the cap. Stamkos canceled all of his meetings and signed under market in Tampa. Stamkos and Tavares are good friends. If money was what Tavares wanted, he'd have already signed with the Islanders.

 

But again, I give 31 teams a shot at Tavares until he says otherwise. 

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33 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

Nothing here someone else can't offer. 

Cap room, travel schedule in the east is a lot easier, original six team, good valued franchise.

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37 minutes ago, DON said:

Cap room, travel schedule in the east is a lot easier, original six team, good valued franchise.

Man I hope not. I would love to see ovie win the cup. Guy is a beauty. One of my favorites in the league.  And number 1 for player I'd like to go drinking with.

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1 hour ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

Nothing here someone else can't offer. One of those is trying to make chicken shit look like chicken salad (oh wow, everything went wrong, boy that sounds like something I want to step into), and another ("several young players") is something the Islanders can claim and he has seen it first hand. We have nobody close to Barzal. It's actually kind of scary how many of those points the Leafs could say, while also adding Auston Matthews, hometown hero status, and a team on the rise.

 

And, oh yeah, everyone can offer to make him the highest paid player. That was the thing about the Stamkos negotiation in Toronto. They offered to make him the highest paid player in the league *and* ensure him a lucrative Canadian Tire sponsorship that would pay him on top of that, free from the cap. Stamkos canceled all of his meetings and signed under market in Tampa. Stamkos and Tavares are good friends. If money was what Tavares wanted, he'd have already signed with the Islanders.

 

But again, I give 31 teams a shot at Tavares until he says otherwise. 

There’s an obvious reason Montréal is in the discussion when it comes to Tavares. 31 teams will not make the same push as the Habs because they won’t be willing to make him their highest paid player, whether it’s because of cap space, already having a high paid 1C, or because they already have depth up the middle. Every team would love to have Tavares, but it doesn’t work that way. Montreal is on the short list even though there’s nothing guaranteed. I’ve always thought he was going to stay put with the Islanders.

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Lou Lamoriello is taking over the Islanders. Sounds like Garth Snow is out. 

 

I think this is a major plus towards re-signing with the Islanders.  That team will now have a very good GM replacing an incompetent one. 

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22 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Lou Lamoriello is taking over the Islanders. Sounds like Garth Snow is out. 

 

I think this is a major plus towards re-signing with the Islanders.  That team will now have a very good GM replacing an incompetent one. 

 

I'm guessing it'll be similar to what happened in Chicago. Lou will be president, his son will become GM.

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34 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

I'm guessing it'll be similar to what happened in Chicago. Lou will be president, his son will become GM.

 

Whatever the deal is, its still better having Lou running things, than Garth Snow. 

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24 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Whatever the deal is, its still better having Lou running things, than Garth Snow. 

 

I hear Charles Wang gave him some ridiculous contract that is very hard to get out of without Snow himself quitting. That's why the new owners couldn't walk in and just fire him. So instead they are taking all of his responsibilities away in hopes he just gets bored. 

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And it begins

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Commandant said:

And it begins

 

 

Just heard it. Tavares stays I wager.

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54 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

Just heard it. Tavares stays I wager.

If he does, MB last hope to turn this shrinking ship around is gone.

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1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

If he does, MB last hope to turn this shrinking ship around is gone.

 

The moment you realize your GM is betting on long shots, the ship is already full of water.

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12 hours ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

The moment you realize your GM is betting on long shots, the ship is already full of water.

 

Yeah, but long shot are all we've got.

 

Say hello to Tyler Bozak.

 

I was interested to read that Desharnais is going to the KHL after a 50-point season. He's a natural C, the biggest joke of all is that he'd represent an upgrade on whatever shite we are throwing out there right now.

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39 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Yeah, but long shot are all we've got.

 

Say hello to Tyler Bozak.

 

I was interested to read that Desharnais is going to the KHL after a 50-point season. He's a natural C, the biggest joke of all is that he'd represent an upgrade on whatever shite we are throwing out there right now.

50 point seasons are long lost for David Desharnais. He had 28 points last year. Although I do agree after wanting him shipped out for about 3-4 years, he’d represent an upgrade on some of the shite we have up the middle. 

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