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Habs' Scoreboard Watching

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<p>Since the Habs appear to be in the midst of what will be a season

long playoff grind, may as well start the scoreboard watching early. Below are

the relevant matchups to Montreal's playoff quests. The non bracketed number is

the percentage change in the Habs' playoff odds if that team wins, while

the bracketed one is the change in Montreal's projected finish. (I've bolded the

teams we want to win for simplicity.)  All figures are courtesy of my favourite

playoff tracking site, sportsclubstats.com. I'll update this daily (or so) so

check back often! (It took me a while to get the data to display properly for me, if they're not lined up properly, please let me know.)<br>

<br>

Current playoff odds: 100% as of April 5.</p><br>

<table cellspacing="0">

<tr>

<td colspan="14" class="b pb5 pr20"><font color="#0000FF"><b>Wednesday,

April 6</b></font></td>

<td> </td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td colspan="14" class="al">No games affecting the Habs</td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td colspan="14" class="h15"> </td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td colspan="14" class="b pb5 pr20"><font color="#0000FF"><b>Thursday, April

7</b></font></td>

<td> </td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td> </td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b"><b>Win</b></td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b pl5"><b>OT</b></td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b pl5"><b>SO</b></td>

<td> </td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b"><b>Win</b></td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b pl5"><b>OT</b></td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b pl5"><b>SO</b></td>

</tr>

<tr class="teamFuture">

<td class="pl13 noWrap teamRed">Senators</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap redNum2">(-0.41)</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap">(-0.02)</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap">(-0.02)</td>

<td class="pl25 noWrap teamGreen"><b>Habs</b></td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar hg noWrap greenNum2">(0.22)</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 hg noWrap">(0.22)</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 hg noWrap">(0.22)</td>

</tr>

<tr class="teamFuture">

<td class="pl13 noWrap teamRed">Rangers</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap redNum2">(-0.04)</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap">(-0.04)</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap">(-0.04)</td>

<td class="pl25 noWrap teamGreen"><b>Thrashers</b></td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar hg noWrap greenNum2">(0.10)</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 hg noWrap">(0.02)</td>

<td class="w20"> </td>

<td class="ar pl8 hg noWrap">(0.02)</td>

</tr>

</table>

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Nice job...

(I've bolded the teams we want to win for simplicity.)

I guess simplicity is he operative word there, because for me in the Boston VS Philadelphia game I would not really like any of them to win any game for all of eternity...:P But seeing as one will most likely win, I would want...err... prefer Boston to win, as we gots :blink: their number as of late.

I hope I did not hack the English language too much there... LOL

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I guess simplicity is he operative word there, because for me in the Boston VS Philadelphia game I would not really like any of them to win any game for all of eternity...:P But seeing as one will most likely win, I would want...err... prefer Boston to win, as we gots :blink: their number as of late.

Yeah, some of the games are lose-lose situations. I've used that site for a couple of years now to figure out who to cheer for.

A couple of other quick notes in case people are wondering:

- The playoff odds are simulation based, using the Monte Carlo method (using repeated sampling to derive results)

- There are 2 sets of playoff odds from that site, weighted and 50/50. Both yield similar results but I prefer the weighted method as it factors in teams' records when it comes to each individual matchup.

- Figures are rounded to the nearest hundreth; you'll note that some figures say 0.00 while others I've added NC (no change). For those that are 0.00, there is a number in there, but the rounding gets rid of it (such as 0.004).

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Too early to scoreboard watch. I've just recently taken to looking at the standings every once in a while.

Scoreboard watching is really a joyless exercise. Just cheer on the Habs and worry about them. Watch other games with a detached sense of reality, not cheering for or against other teams. You can groan about 3 point games a bit, just because they truly do suck, but watch them solely for entertainment/informative purposes. There's enough emotional ups and downs invested in cheering on the Habs in their own games, no need to throw it all in for the other games.

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Scoreboard watching is really a joyless exercise. Just cheer on the Habs and worry about them. Watch other games with a detached sense of reality, not cheering for or against other teams.

Well speaking as a FAN...ATTIC, my detached sense of reality believes that all my positive and negative thoughts reflect on the Habs standings.:angry:

...err... I mean. :D

Edited by Mitch

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Too early to scoreboard watch. I've just recently taken to looking at the standings every once in a while.

Scoreboard watching is really a joyless exercise. Just cheer on the Habs and worry about them. Watch other games with a detached sense of reality, not cheering for or against other teams. You can groan about 3 point games a bit, just because they truly do suck, but watch them solely for entertainment/informative purposes. There's enough emotional ups and downs invested in cheering on the Habs in their own games, no need to throw it all in for the other games.

I agree it's a joyless exercise, but it's also something I do from about the first week on as too often we've seen things come down to the last days of the year, a blown lead here and there in October can do a team in. Plus, given the 'fun' I've had getting HTML to display properly with the new forums, it'll take me another month to make it look right...by then the watching will be in full effect. :)

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I agree it's a joyless exercise, but it's also something I do from about the first week on as too often we've seen things come down to the last days of the year, a blown lead here and there in October can do a team in. Plus, given the 'fun' I've had getting HTML to display properly with the new forums, it'll take me another month to make it look right...by then the watching will be in full effect. :)

I hear ya, Brian.

For me, I recommend mild scoreboard watching at this point. There's way too much season left, and I don't want to end up with stomach ulcers. rolleyes.gif

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Hi Brian,

I am confused about the Penguins/Bruins game in the opening post. How is it possible that the outcome of this game had no change on our playoff chances.

The Bruins were behind the Penguins (but with 2 games in hand). Most importantly, if we catch the Bruins we are basically guaranteed to make the playoffs (and finish top 3). Catching the Penguins obviously helps our chances but it doesn't assure us a playoff spot.

P.P.

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Hi Brian,

I am confused about the Penguins/Bruins game in the opening post. How is it possible that the outcome of this game had no change on our playoff chances.

The Bruins were behind the Penguins (but with 2 games in hand). Most importantly, if we catch the Bruins we are basically guaranteed to make the playoffs (and finish top 3). Catching the Penguins obviously helps our chances but it doesn't assure us a playoff spot.

P.P.

All the odds are based on a simulation, done 100,000,000 times by that site. In that simulation, whoever won played no impact whatsoever on the Habs' odds for making the playoffs. I would guess that the simulator thinks both those teams are for sure playoff bound and that the Habs aren't really battling them to make it, but rather others. I've often seen that over the years, 2 teams with similar records, it's lose-lose either way which just speaking in general terms, neither helps nor hurts things unless it's a 3 pointer.

Looking at the new numbers (I'll update them in the 1st post later today) that shows the results, it stayed that way. Boston/Pittsburgh played no role in Montreal's chances of making the playoffs, and only slightly affected the Habs' projected finish.

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All the odds are based on a simulation, done 100,000,000 times by that site. In that simulation, whoever won played no impact whatsoever on the Habs' odds for making the playoffs. I would guess that the simulator thinks both those teams are for sure playoff bound and that the Habs aren't really battling them to make it, but rather others. I've often seen that over the years, 2 teams with similar records, it's lose-lose either way which just speaking in general terms, neither helps nor hurts things unless it's a 3 pointer.

Looking at the new numbers (I'll update them in the 1st post later today) that shows the results, it stayed that way. Boston/Pittsburgh played no role in Montreal's chances of making the playoffs, and only slightly affected the Habs' projected finish.

I guess. But this seems very fishy. We are now 2 points behind Boston and they have a game in hand. With almost half a season to go, it is clear that we are battling the Bruins and also the Penguins at least as far as a simulation goes.

As I say, all we have to do is finish ahead of the Bruins to qualify for the playoffs. Since they lost to the Penguins instead of winning, it seems we are quite a bit better off.

Edited by Peter Puck

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I guess. But this seems very fishy. We are now 2 points behind Boston and they have a game in hand. With almost half a season to go, it is clear that we are battling the Bruins and also the Penguins at least as far as a simulation goes.

As I say, all we have to do is finish ahead of the Bruins to qualify for the playoffs. Since they lost to the Penguins instead of winning, it seems we are quite a bit better off.

I am confused too. Does this simulator includes the concept of "division leaders as 1-2-3" ??

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I am confused too. Does this simulator includes the concept of "division leaders as 1-2-3" ??

Doesn't say, but if I had to guess, I'd say no for simplicity reasons. But it's not that hard to fathom, look at Florida/Atlanta tomorrow. As long as the game ends in regulation, the Habs' odds go up. Who wins doesn't matter, just as long as it isn't a 3-pointer. Same as Boston/Pittsburgh, though granted, there is the divisional factor there.

Here's a little blurb on how this site works: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/WhatIsThis.html

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this is a great post, I will be reviewing it often...

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Tomorrow's Boston-Florida game is one those catch-22's. If Boston wins, Florida loses which means that a team behind the Habs loses which helps the odds of making the playoffs. But if Florida wins, the playoff odds go down but the average projected finish goes up. Yay for numbers...

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We'll see a rarity tomorrow, a game where no matter who wins, the Habs' odds will improve...as long as it doesn't go to OT. Buffalo-Carolina can be classified as win-win technically, even though it's lose-lose in that someone has to win.

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I went over the archive of the last 5 years and NO team with the odds of over 90% through March 1st missed the playoffs.

The 2009 Panthers were about 85% in early March and missed on a tiebreaker with the Habs, that is the closest.

As for Leaf haters, no team under 20% in March has ever made the playoffs.

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The Habs' odds moved up to a season high 99.8% last night, or a 1 in 500 chance they'd miss. As a result, the majority of the games listed for the next while (barring a losing streak) will basically just be focusing on the average finishing position (in brackets).

The magic number points wise to clinch the playoffs is 15, between points earned by the Habs and points not earned by Carolina. The Habs also hold the tiebreak on every team in the East with the exceptions of Philly, Boston, and Washington (tied with them currently) as a result of the new ROW tiebreaking rule (Regulation + Overtime Wins).

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As shootout wins are deducted from the tiebreaker, the site is now breaking down odds in terms of regulation, overtime, and shootout wins/losses. Just more numbers for your reading enjoyment.

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Looking ahead this week, tuesday Atlanta at home and Wednesday facing the Canes in Carolina.

This should be to streak to get their head above water, battling a slump just before playoffs

is not a bad thing.

Having a 4 games slump in the playoffs would be worse.

So the key game is Atlanta there, winning this one serves the table for the next day, if Carolina

goes dry against Washington and Montreal wins both they will secure their spot in playoffs this wednesday.

Saving a playoff spot 11 days before season end would be a great achievement for this team.

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1 Hab win and 1 Canes loss will do it.

If the Habs beat the Thrashers and the Canes lose to the Caps it leaves the Canes 9 pts back and essentially having to run the table to make the playoffs.

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For those predicting doom and gloom, statistically speaking, there currently is a 50.4% chance that the Habs still will make the playoffs even if they lose out the rest of the way. With one loser point (OT or SO), it jumps to just over 78%.

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For those predicting doom and gloom, statistically speaking, there currently is a 50.4% chance that the Habs still will make the playoffs even if they lose out the rest of the way. With one loser point (OT or SO), it jumps to just over 78%.

Thanks for posting this. It's a pretty eye opening stat.

Nice to know that even if the next 4 go down the tubes, all is not lost.

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If they can't win 1 game they don't deserve to be in the p[layoffs. That would be 1-10 i belive to end the season. Not good.

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If they can't win 1 game they don't deserve to be in the p[layoffs. That would be 1-10 i belive to end the season. Not good.

The Habs deserve whatever they are willing to show up and compete for. Whether that's winning the cup, losing in the first round or somewhere in between.

It's been a long year and they've fought back admirably up to this point. Granted the last 2 weeks have not been good to MTL.

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Thanks for that Brian, it really emphasizes how negative some have become.

If they can't win 1 game they don't deserve to be in the p[layoffs. That would be 1-10 i belive to end the season. Not good.

I believe in my Tri-Couleurs until the end, even if you 'belive' it to be bitter.

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