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Habs vs Flames, March 6, 9 PM EST


dlbalr

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As DON said its a mechanism against tanking.

Which there is little proof of teams doing, aside from maybe the 1984 Pittsburgh Penguins. The Senators I believe were accused of it even though they just really, really sucked.

Commandant, the lottery wasn't instituted until the Bryan Berard draft of 1996 so I never really believed that story. Don't ever recall Bettman telling it either.

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Which there is little proof of teams doing, aside from maybe the 1984 Pittsburgh Penguins.  The Senators I believe were accused of it even though they just really, really sucked.

There is no proof the Sens tanked, their record in every month is more or less the same, there is no point you can identify where the tanking started. But their old owner got drunk, told a story to a reporter, and a legend was born.

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Which there is little proof of teams doing, aside from maybe the 1984 Pittsburgh Penguins.  The Senators I believe were accused of it even though they just really, really sucked.

Commandant, the lottery wasn't instituted until the Bryan Berard draft of 1996 so I never really believed that story.  Don't ever recall Bettman telling it either.

In 1995 the Lottery was instituted.  Bruce Firestone was fined $100,000 for his comments on daigle made to Roy MacGregor.

By the time the investigation finished the rules for the 1993-1994 season and draft were already in place, so it took til 1995 to put in the lottery.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1993-09-03/sports/9309030168_1_nhl-commissioner-gary-bettman-entry-draft-ottawa-senators

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In 1995 the Lottery was instituted. Bruce Firestone was fined $100,000 for his comments on daigle made to Roy MacGregor.

By the time the investigation finished the rules for the 1993-1994 season and draft were already in place, so it took til 1995 to put in the lottery.

http://articles.chic...ottawa-senators

Ah, thanks. When looking for it, I found out that the Marian Hossa trade is actually the reason the Sens had to sign Redden instead of Chara. Chara refused to sign with the Senators because he felt they blindsided Hossa by trading him right after he signed a new deal with the team.

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this is a quote from anothe site the best and most honest evaluation of our tea that I have seen. I did not write it nor do i pretend to but I definitely agree with it

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dorvalhabsfan

March 7, 2012 at 6:39 pm

I think we put too much blame on a bad season on PG…

At the beginning of the season we were contenders, with our fears lying in our unproven defence..while everyone here blames Gainey or Gauthier for taking us off the skids, i remember being godawful while Savard was our GM.. I remember everyone was excited with all the acquisistions..

You cant blame management for a horrendous downturn in one persons..this was as predictable as Zetterberg turning into an all star.. his acquisition brought in many respectable players.. gionta cammalieri… at that time we also acquired Hall Gill…

Hindsight is a beautiful and to say I knew better and hated the trade from day is in most cases a lie…

We can look at other moves…

People are now saying firing JM was classless and desperate… but 95% of the posters here could not stand JM as head coach and all of you called for his dismissal… now I’m not for or against it personally it was a matter of time he got fired. but to turn around and bash that move because it didn’t work out is lunacy. I worry more over how he was tagged interim and ot so little defence from his boss…

The Cammi trade was also a matter of neccesity.. to be one of the “leaders” on the team and one of the highest earners on the team to go out and throw not only your team but coaching staff under the train by saying “we practice like losers” is unacceptable.. you need to show your team that some things are not acceptable.. this wasa statement meant for in the locker room or an office and not for the media… we picked up a big guy who can hit and play gritty… we traded him away for a small skilled speedy forward… both of them were coasting on their previous team so what were you expecting?

the small moves (moores nokelainens) these are detrimental… moore would not have gotten us in the playoffs…

Wiz is god awful this season and i dont think he would have helped us out much more then markov… i would rather show loyalty anyways so we can expect the same from our players…

the team is not as bad as our record shows… we have a good young core, we’re moving in a more physical and larger sized direction and we have a high draft pick, an all star goalie, 30 goal scoring PF and a futre all star D.. everyone wants moves to be done NOW, but who are we to say firing Gauthier will make our t eam better? who will be the new GM? I dont see why we should alter the direction the team is making and i dont think we should panic by changing everyone around.. new coach new gm doesnt solve everything …

With that being said i think Gauthier has one more summer to turn it around as he has not had ALOT of time to make this team.. he was hired less then 2 years ago giving him bassically 1 1/2 seasons WE need to be patient and see where it takes us

Lets be construtive and not waste 50% of the day pointing fingers.. the players didnt perform.. Gauthier did (in the off season acquired Cole and Emelin) and during the season (signing #26, trying to help the PP by acquiring Kaberle..which was made with the right intention and didnt have to give up toooo much)

Lets give credit where credit is due

Go Habs Go

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As DON said its a mechanism against tanking.

That makes some sense, although with "fail for Nail" campaigns talked about on forums and traditional media, you could argue that it hasn't really worked.

It just seems unfair to a team like Columbus who I think are genuinely bad rather than tanking, that there is a chance they could miss out on a guy who appears to be head and shoulders above anyone else in the draft.

Saying that, I would be thrilled if we jumped a place or two via the lottery and got top pick. (would probably write another post about how fantastic the lottery system is lol)

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That makes some sense, although with "fail for Nail" campaigns talked about on forums and traditional media, you could argue that it hasn't really worked.

It just seems unfair to a team like Columbus who I think are genuinely bad rather than tanking, that there is a chance they could miss out on a guy who appears to be head and shoulders above anyone else in the draft.

Saying that, I would be thrilled if we jumped a place or two via the lottery and got top pick. (would probably write another post about how fantastic the lottery system is lol)

Columbus still has very good chance of #1 pick and the worst they get is a #2 i think, so pretty fair deal and most bottom team have got #1 pick i think?

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When you have to create that many excuses for the job PG is doing, eventually you have to realize while there may be supplemental reasons for the teams failure, he certainly isn't setting it up for success.

The problem with certain posters here is that they are unwilling to give Gauthier or Gainey credit for absolutely anything. Every move they made was for the worst of this team. No decisions were smart. The success of this team is only due to Trevor Timmins and Jaroslav Halak. Everyone else was just riding their coattails.

Gauthier deserves credit for Cole and many other decisions but he's failed to set the team up for real success. Signing Campoli was probably up there as one of his worst moves. How Cammalleri was handled was a disaster and it hurt the teams bargaining position. It was reminiscent (but not as bad) of the Corey/Houle/Tremblay debacle with Roy. That's not a GM you give another year to.

Gauthier needs to go and the team needs a new identity. There are a lot of players right now who can fit the new identity. It just needs the right GM.

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They scored 4 goals, because the flames are almost as bad ad our habs.

I got onto Montreal late last night since my flight was 2 hrs late. By the third period, I hady coworkers in Calgary calling me to rub it in. The damn team couldn't even win against either of the two teams that I actually wanted them to beat in their remaining games (leafs and flames).

The team actually scored four goals this time. Not that they played well. If this game gave the Flames hope, they better hope for more of it.

Pleks is trying but is given garbage to play with.

Bourque just doesn't care and is a useless piece of shit.

He isn't the only one stinking it up.Isn't pleks like minus 20 something.

This team blows period. to pick out one guy a night is senseless. I'll make my decision on Bourque and some others when they get competant leadership, administration, GM, ( i do like alot of PG moves) but in one year they look like a mickey mouse orginization, and some quality coaching from a proven coach and assistants.

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Bourque doesn't care. His interviews are peppered with "whatevers" when he talks about real life. I think our expectations of him are too high. When he came into the club, I saw him as a solid 3rd liner who could chip in 15-20 goals. Getting rid of Cammalleri was the real gem, think of him and a raise for Price and Subban, and avoiding the next Gomez situation.

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Who is scoring 15-20 goals on this team that isn't a top 6 player?

Right now Eller. The only players with 15-20 goal ability are Pacioretty, Cole, Desharnais, Gionta and Plekanec. Maybe Markov or Subban on a really good year. Then again, Bourque is likely the new Andrei Kostitsyn so I'm expecting him next season to string together 10 games where he scores 8 goals and 5 assists and everyone says we were wrong about his laziness. He'll finish the season with 12 goals and 7 assists.

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Right now Eller. The only players with 15-20 goal ability are Pacioretty, Cole, Desharnais, Gionta and Plekanec. Maybe Markov or Subban on a really good year. Then again, Bourque is likely the new Andrei Kostitsyn so I'm expecting him next season to string together 10 games where he scores 8 goals and 5 assists and everyone says we were wrong about his laziness. He'll finish the season with 12 goals and 7 assists.

12 + 7 may turn out to be a bit low, if only because I'd like to think the team as a whole will be more productive next season; but in principle I think you're spot on. He may turn out to be a decent, tolerably physical 3rd liner, perhaprs.

That's the thing, this team needs a new top-line winger. A guy like Kostitsyn or Bourque is never gonna be part of the core and anyone asking them to be is going to spend years banging their head against the wall. Put Bourque in the background, behind two strong lines, and he may prove to be a perfectly solid contributor. More than that? No way.

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That may be what bourque is, but that's the reason why the cammalleri trade was so mismanaged from the start.

2.7 in savings, a 2nd rounder and a 3rd line prospect just doesn't make up for this talent downgrade. We just saw the Ruutu and Grabovski contracts, this UFA market is super thin and and its gonna cost an arm and a leg to replace a top line winger that way.

Its frustrating that our options here are gonna be so limited.

Maybe Cammy needed to go, maybe he really was a behind the scenes problem, but this trade was never fair return for his talent, especially the way prices would get silly a few weeks later.

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Talent downgrade? Didn't Bourque have more goals then cammy when they were traded? Over the past 3 years Bourque outscored Cammy.

I would imagine if you put Bourque on a line with DD and Cole, his point total would go up.

I think it's an orginazational and coaching downgrade.

Why do you think players start scoring again once they leave Montreal? System, coaching, talent on the team?

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Talent downgrade? Didn't Bourque have more goals then cammy when they were traded? Over the past 3 years Bourque outscored Cammy.

  

He doesnt bring any other offence, in 60 games he has 5 assists.  Cammy is capable of doing more for a line than Bourque.  Also team system comes into play here, the Habs have played more defensive than Calgary and nearly everyone scores more on other teams.

I would imagine if you put Bourque on a line with DD and Cole, his point total would go up.

I think it's an orginazational and coaching downgrade.

Why do you think players start scoring again once they leave Montreal? System, coaching, talent on the team?

Its system, but over the years with Martin coaching that system produced wins so it shouldnt be a problem.

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Cammalleri has it in him to be an elite offensive player in the NHL. Bourque doesn't. Duh. In that sense the trade is a clear and massive downgrading to our talent level. Now whether Cammy can overcome his propensity to get injured and his seeming mental problems to become that player again is another question.

The trade was absolutely mismanaged, which many of us suspected at the time and which became glaringly obvious at the deadline. There were hardly any players with any potential to be difference-makers available at the deadline. Cammy'd have been #2 after Carter, I should think. Surely Cammy could easily have been leveraged to fetch more than this plodder Bourque.

Yep, despite endless fan bitching JM had the perfect system for the players he had. It was obvious then and it's obvious now.

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Yep, despite endless fan bitching JM had the perfect system for the players he had. It was obvious then and it's obvious now.

I think you may be correct on that. I am guilty of hating the system and everything it represented. Results speak for themselves. Look at St.Louis ripping up the league playing a total team system, with no superstars in sight.

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Cammalleri has it in him to be an elite offensive player in the NHL. Bourque doesn't. Duh. In that sense the trade is a clear and massive downgrading to our talent level. Now whether Cammy can overcome his propensity to get injured and his seeming mental problems to become that player again is another question.

The trade was absolutely mismanaged, which many of us suspected at the time and which became glaringly obvious at the deadline. There were hardly any players with any potential to be difference-makers available at the deadline. Cammy'd have been #2 after Carter, I should think. Surely Cammy could easily have been leveraged to fetch more than this plodder Bourque.

Yep, despite endless fan bitching JM had the perfect system for the players he had. It was obvious then and it's obvious now.

If Cammalleri has it in him, he is very good at hiding it, haha

Back to back sub 20 goals for a $6m player, you got to be kidding.

Bourgues is at 1/2 the salary and better goal scorer, a big body, a better skater, and a tad more physical.

And a 2nd round pick, from a likely very weak Flame team next year and Patrick Holland.

It was a steal by Habs and i highly doubt any Hab players miss him and his huge ego that much.

As you can see i disagree 100% with you and most others, maybe i am out to lunch, but really think was a super trade.

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3rd last gives us no chance at number 2. If we are third last we can pick 1, 3, or 4. If we are 2nd last, we can pick 1, 2, or 3 based on lottery results.

There is no way to move from 3 to 2... if you win the lottery you are moving all the way to number 1.

Placements and possible picks

30th - 1st overall or 2nd overall

29th - 1st overall, 2nd overall or 3rd overall

28th - 1st overall, 3rd overall or 4th overall

27th - 1st overall, 4th overall or 5th overall

26th - 1st overall, 5th overall or 6th overall

25th - 2nd overall, 6th overall or 7th overall

24th - 3rd overall, 7th overall or 8th overall

ETC....

I found the Odds for the scenarios.

Predicted position Winning the lottery Stayingput Losing 1 spot

30th place - 1st overall 48.2%; 2nd overall 51,8%

29th place - 1st overall 18,8%; 2nd overall 42% 3rd overall 39,2%

28th place - 1st overall 14,2% 3rd overall 56,1% 4th overall 29,7%

27th place - 1st overall 10,7% 4th overall 80,6% 5th overall 8,7%

26th place - 1st overall 8,1% 5th overall 85,9% 6th overall 6,0%

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I found the Odds for the scenarios.

Predicted position Winning the lottery Stayingput Losing 1 spot

30th place - 1st overall 48.2%; 2nd overall 51,8%

29th place - 1st overall 18,8%; 2nd overall 42% 3rd overall 39,2%

28th place - 1st overall 14,2% 3rd overall 56,1% 4th overall 29,7%

27th place - 1st overall 10,7% 4th overall 80,6% 5th overall 8,7%

26th place - 1st overall 8,1% 5th overall 85,9% 6th overall 6,0%

Wow, those are better odds than I thought at getting #1 for other lottery teams. I'm surprised it hasn't happened more.

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Its pretty simple. The best teams have a habit of buying low and selling high. Its not easy and no team is perfect, but the better you do at that, the more likely your team stays competitive.

We have a habit of buying high and selling low. Ribs was the classic example for me. People wanted him gone, so they gave him away in pre-season. He had already shown signs of maturity and improved performance with Kovalev, but we dumped him. What would Riberio have netted us if we had shown some patience and traded him a few months later.. I suspect much more. Given the return, there was no urgency to trade him.

Halak was dumped far too early in the trading season. Some will argue we got as much as we could, but I still maintain most of the hockey world was caught off guard by the early trade.

Cammy was dumped in a hurry and that dictated his worth.

I will give you a more controversal suggestion. DD may be at his peak. He is playing with our two top power forwards and having what may turn out to be a career year. If a bunch of GMs show interest, then I would be wiling to trade him now, at the peak of his value. His additional upside is limited and there is a very good chance that next year he falls back to earth, gets keyed in on and pounded down, gets hurt, and is never the same. I would trade him for a productive winger right now.

There are many more examples, but in general, we have squandered assets more often then not. I will give PG props for Gill. That was a much better trade. We need more of those to build a solid team. It can't be the exception to the rule.

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