You're Marc Bergevin - What deal do you offer Subban?

[brobin]

1) Its expensive to buy (and added expense for the player that reduces the value of his short term contract).

2) The payout is less than being under contract.

3) What if he gets a nagging injury... not one that makes him medically unable to play, but one that means his level of play is much lower. Insurance won't pay out, and his next contract will reflect his reduced effectiveness.

there are a ton of reasons why a player would ask for job security.

I understand, but that is also the reason not to give him the long term deal. I like PK a lot, but ont above the team. I don't want the team hamstrung with a bad contract for 6 to 8 years if

A) a nagging injury makes PK a terrible defenceman.

B) PK turns out to have peaked and doesn't get better, but gets worse.

C) PK starts mailing it in, gets fat, sucks.

I feel this way about all players, not just PK. Contact length has to balance these risks between the team and the player. Contacts beyond 5 years are too risky, IMO. If a player has a longer track record, then I lean towards the 5 years. If they are fragile (Markov) I go a bit less. If they as coming off an entry contract, I lean shorter as well. 8 years is how you get a Gomez.

I understand why pk wants the long deal, I am not sure why fans are so eager to give it to him. As long as we have an opportunity before he becomes a FA to give him a long term deal (or not) I see no reason to do it now with 4 years of RFA time left. People seem to fear that PK will sign a bridge deal but be so petty he won't extend later. I think that is nonsense. He is a professional.

[JoeLassister]

People seem to fear that PK will sign a bridge deal but be so petty he won't extend later. I think that is nonsense. He is a professional.

I fear Montreal's medias bullshit / fans base / MTL's pressure / PK's cockyness / boooing / etc much more than giving him a 8 years deal.

Every bad (even mediocre) season Subban will have, any questionable decision he will take in life outside of hockey, every Bertrand Raymon or Réjean Tremblay bs article bashing him because of that could be reasons why PK would not want to extand and walk away at 27.

[Commandant]

I understand, but that is also the reason not to give him the long term deal. I like PK a lot, but ont above the team. I don't want the team hamstrung with a bad contract for 6 to 8 years if A) a nagging injury makes PK a terrible defenceman. B) PK turns out to have peaked and doesn't get better, but gets worse. C) PK starts mailing it in, gets fat, sucks. I feel this way about all players, not just PK. Contact length has to balance these risks between the team and the player. Contacts beyond 5 years are too risky, IMO. If a player has a longer track record, then I lean towards the 5 years. If they are fragile (Markov) I go a bit less. If they as coming off an entry contract, I lean shorter as well. 8 years is how you get a Gomez. I understand why pk wants the long deal, I am not sure why fans are so eager to give it to him. As long as we have an opportunity before he becomes a FA to give him a long term deal (or not) I see no reason to do it now with 4 years of RFA time left. People seem to fear that PK will sign a bridge deal but be so petty he won't extend later. I think that is nonsense. He is a professional.

Your question was

If you think about it, if PK is so confident in his abilities, then why not sign the bridge deal. If he is as good as projected, he will still get the long term deal and even more money in a few years.

I realize the team has many reasons not to give it..... I merely answered the question as written and from PK's perspective.

[brobin]

Your question was

I realize the team has many reasons not to give it..... I merely answered the question as written and from PK's perspective.

Valid point....I still think that if he is so worried about injuries, then get insurance. If he wants to hold out, he can, but I don't think it will work given the habs being in a rebuild phase.

[brobin]

I fear Montreal's medias bullshit / fans base / MTL's pressure / PK's cockyness / boooing / etc much more than giving him a 8 years deal.

Every bad (even mediocre) season Subban will have, any questionable decision he will take in life outside of hockey, every Bertrand Raymon or Réjean Tremblay bs article bashing him because of that could be reasons why PK would not want to extand and walk away at 27.

Well, a contract didn't help Gomez. I would argue it helped destroy him. Imagine Subban having a terrible season with a long term deal... The press will eat him alive.

[hankhab]

I'm hoping tomorrows meeting brings a resolution, this is a much better team with PK out there, a very dangerous player, on the scoresheet and physically as well. There are not a lot of guys like him in the league.

[hankhab]

Well, a contract didn't help Gomez. I would argue it helped destroy him. Imagine Subban having a terrible season with a long term deal... The press will eat him alive.

Its the press in Montreal, not the fan base, which is the problem. From what I see, the fans love the team, even last year, when they were terrible. The press, especially the french press, has no respect, its too bad someone wouldn't put a leash on them.

[JoeLassister]

Well, a contract didn't help Gomez. I would argue it helped destroy him. Imagine Subban having a terrible season with a long term deal... The press will eat him alive.

it would be about 2M less on the cap hit. Honestly, I understand what you mean, but can't picture PK having some kind of Gomez failure. We would be able to trade him before it would end like Gomez.

[brobin]

it would be about 2M less on the cap hit. Honestly, I understand what you mean, but can't picture PK having some kind of Gomez failure. We would be able to trade him before it would end like Gomez.

It would not need to be like Gomez. If they give him 6 for 6 and he struggles, he will be eaten alive. If he is getting 4 for 3, he will be bashed, but probably not singled out.

Remember, the press needs a new Gomez. Both PK and Kaberle should keep their heads down.

[JoeLassister]

It would not need to be like Gomez. If they give him 6 for 6 and he struggles, he will be eaten alive. If he is getting 4 for 3, he will be bashed, but probably not singled out. Remember, the press needs a new Gomez. Both PK and Kaberle should keep their heads down.

No. They have Louis Leblanc already...

[brobin]

No. They have Louis Leblanc already...

Lol... Truth!

[dlbalr]

I'm hoping tomorrows meeting brings a resolution, this is a much better team with PK out there, a very dangerous player, on the scoresheet and physically as well. There are not a lot of guys like him in the league.

There's a meeting tomorrow? Everything I've read suggests the contrary, no talks today and none planned...a phrase I thought would disappear at the end of the lockout.

Dimitri Kulikov, one of the other good young defencemen in the exact situation as Subban, has reportedly agreed to terms on a 2 year deal today, just like Del Zotto.

[brobin]

There's a meeting tomorrow? Everything I've read suggests the contrary, no talks today and none planned...a phrase I thought would disappear at the end of the lockout.

Dimitri Kulikov, one of the other good young defencemen in the exact situation as Subban, has reportedly agreed to terms on a 2 year deal today, just like Del Zotto.

The meeting is between Subban and his agent...not With the habs.

[ForumGhost]

Wow, still no deal? If no deal gets done before Sat, I think this would be a huge failure on the part of Bergevin. Lookout is finally over, and fans still won't get to see one of their favorite players?

[JCPetit]

As much as I like P.K., I think that Bergevin should stick to his principles. If the young man doesn't want to understand, he should be traded. That's all.

[ForumGhost]

Trading one of Montreal's most popular young players as your first act as GM is a sure-fire way to be sacked.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Trading one of Montreal's most popular young players as your first act as GM is a sure-fire way to be sacked.

I don't want to see PK traded because I think it makes no sense, as we would then need to acquire a player like PK in order to fill the massive hole he'll leave. But I have to say, I hate these references to his 'popularity,' as if that is relevant to the hockey decision of how good a player he is on the ice and therefore what his compensation should be. Montreal absolutely needs management that ignores these sort of pandering considerations and makes principled hockey decisions. More and more, I'm coming to the view that I really want Bergeron to stick to his guns just to make that point.

[brobin]

On sportsnet they made an interesting point... What is surprising is that bergevin is doing what GMs are suppose to do, which is to use the leverage that RFA status provides to keep the salary down and manage the teams cap budget. They said it was about time and I agree. GMs have to stop caving to agents. Since we are not going anywhere this year, why cave in to Meehan? It might suck not to see PK playing for a bit, but I can handle it for the sake of the long term benefit to the team.

[habs rule]

Trading one of Montreal's most popular young players as your first act as GM is a sure-fire way to be sacked.

and listening to fans is a sure fire way to first lose then get fired. let me see i think that was sammy p who said that.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

The first time I heard the quote it was from Harry Neale:

If you start listening to the fans, pretty soon you'll be sitting up there with 'em.

Yup. I've moved toward a hard-liner position on the PK thing. Bergevin must do what is best for the organization in pure hockey terms. That means not knuckling under to agents or fans - and hopefully not to interfering ownership either (some posters have suggested that Molson will 'force' Bergevin to sign PK, apparently failing to realize that if that happens, it will be a very ominous signal for our ability to ice a winning team going forward). MB has to make his stand here and now and establish that the Montreal Canadiens are an elite organization committed to excellence and winning...nothing else.

[brobin]

The first time I heard the quote it was from Harry Neale:

If you start listening to the fans, pretty soon you'll be sitting up there with them.

Yup. I've moved toward a hard-liner position on the PK thing. Bergevin must do what is best for the organization in hockey terms. That means not knuckling under to agents or fans - and hopefully not to interfering ownership either (some posters have suggested that Molson will 'force' Bergevin to sign PK, apparently failing to realize that if that happens, it will be a very ominous signal for our ability to ice a winning team going forward). MB has to make his stand here and now and establish that the Montreal Canadiens are an elite organization committed to excellence and winning, nothing else.

Yup. Those same fans will turn on PK with one bad season. Those same fans will be mad at Bergevin for not landing that key FA when he runs out of cap space. Fans are not good GMs.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Yup. Those same fans will turn on PK with one bad season. Those same fans will be mad at Bergevin for not landing that key FA when he runs out of cap space. Fans are not good GMs.

Yeah, they're the clowns who took to the streets protesting our failure to re-sign a washed-up, broken-down, erratic and moody Kovalev. Great hockey minds right there.

The choice is clear. Either stick to your principles - like Gillis on the Canucks, who let Ehrhoff walk rather than destroy his salary structure and team-building philosophy- or else end up overpaying left and right for reasons that have nothing to do with the goal of winning the Cup. Ruthless commitment to winning, or mediocrity and crossed fingers.

[JCPetit]

I don't want to see PK traded because I think it makes no sense, as we would then need to acquire a player like PK in order to fill the massive hole he'll leave. But I have to say, I hate these references to his 'popularity,' as if that is relevant to the hockey decision of how good a player he is on the ice and therefore what his compensation should be. Montreal absolutely needs management that ignores these sort of pandering considerations and makes principled hockey decisions. More and more, I'm coming to the view that I really want Bergeron to stick to his guns just to make that point.

And if Bergeron sticks to his gun and P.K. remains on his position... What alternative do you have left?

I don't want to trade him either, nor do I want a player who thinks that he is bigger than the team. P.K., with all his qualities, has also shown a high level of narcisism, which is troublesome for a youngster like him. Either he caves in or he goes somewhere else. I don't doubt a minute that we would get some good players or draft choices in exchange.

And although I am a great fan of P.K. (he is my favourite Habs), the GM would have my full approval if it comes to that.

[bar]

I find it funny how fans are all now capologists..."we can't pay him that much, the cap this..the cap that", the question is comparables.

Is Subban a better player than Kaberle? The answer is yes..so why would he accept a contract less than Kaberle? We're all big men saying he should do this or that, but if I was better than someone and we worked the same job and he got paid more than me, I would be upset.

[brobin]

I find it funny how fans are all now capologists..."we can't pay him that much, the cap this..the cap that", the question is comparables.

Is Subban a better player than Kaberle? The answer is yes..so why would he accept a contract less than Kaberle? We're all big men saying he should do this or that, but if I was better than someone and we worked the same job and he got paid more than me, I would be upset.

Because Kaberle was a free agent brought in by the last, and desperate, GM. Comparables are nice negotiating tools, but leverage is what counts. PK has little leverage this season. If he was the final piece on a cup contender, then he would have lots of leverage.

At this point, PK has to decide if he wants to sit to see if his leverage improves. For example, Markov sucks, Kaberle is worse. The team is in a playoff position, etc. something to make Bergevin need PK back in the lineup. On the other hand, if the D look pretty good without him, he loses even more leverage.