Jump to content

You're Marc Bergevin - What deal do you offer Subban?


dlbalr

Recommended Posts

I was responding to those saying take the picks, no way do I want to lose Subban. IMO he is more important then price. Big, shut down, puck moving dmen don't grow on trees.

Even picking in the top 5 you can end up with a pouliot, so there are no gaurantees in the draft.

Even if the team had an 80% chance to pick top 5 do you really believe the Habs would find a PK replacement in one of those picks?

Honestly I dont.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need Subban.

We also need a GM who doesn't sacrifice the long-term interests of the organization in a desperate effort to have a cruddy team scrape into the playoffs.

This issue, especially in the absence of any real information about the negotiations, defies simple, cut-and-dried solutions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the worst time to bank on a first overall pick too. Every team who misses the playoffs gets a shot at first overall.

You can still only fall one spot.... so if you finish last, worst you can pick is second.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even if you believe Markov replaces Subban... that doesn't make us a better team than last season... that leaves us as the same crummy team we were.

The whole idea should be that Markov - Emelin + Subban - Gorges, gives us a legitimate top 3 maybe 4 on defence (4 if Emelin is ready).... something we only had a top 2 last year at ES

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even if you believe Markov replaces Subban... that doesn't make us a better team than last season... that leaves us as the same crummy team we were.

The whole idea should be that Markov - Emelin + Subban - Gorges, gives us a legitimate top 3 maybe 4 on defence (4 if Emelin is ready).... something we only had a top 2 last year at ES

Emelin looked ready to me last night.

Yeah, the absence of Subban is very frustrating psychologically for just the reason you state. We had to suffer all last season with a truly wretched defence corps. Finally Gorges and Markov are healthy, so of course we subtract Subban for contractual reasons. Add that to the frustration caused by the lockout and you can't help feeling basically gypped as a fan.

How much you want to bet that if and when Subban comes back, one of our other key guys on D will get hurt? That's just the way it seems to roll.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How much you want to bet that if and when Subban comes back, one of our other key guys on D will get hurt? That's just the way it seems to roll.

You have to bank on that through team depth. Letting Subban go for draft picks as some have suggested means the team loses depth and that's where you hurt. That's why LA could deal with a few injuries in the season, some hiccups, slide to eighth for the playoffs and crush everyone as if they had the best record in the league. To win the Cup you need depth and without Subban, we're shallow on defence until Tinordi, Beaulieu and others are ready for the big leagues. And even then, it's all praying and hoping Beaulieu can become a 30 point defenceman and not Yannick Weber.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have to bank on that through team depth. Letting Subban go for draft picks as some have suggested means the team loses depth and that's where you hurt. That's why LA could deal with a few injuries in the season, some hiccups, slide to eighth for the playoffs and crush everyone as if they had the best record in the league. To win the Cup you need depth and without Subban, we're shallow on defence until Tinordi, Beaulieu and others are ready for the big leagues. And even then, it's all praying and hoping Beaulieu can become a 30 point defenceman and not Yannick Weber.

The idea of letting Subban go is sheer folly. These fans remind me of Saskatchewan's old provincial motto, 'Tomorrow Country.' The player they don't have is always better than the player they do; the draft pick always has unlimited potential, while the guys you already have are disposable. If we move Subban. we need additional moves to fill the hole he leaves: a futile whack-a-mole model of general managing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree to trade Subban is not in the best interest of the team short term or long term. I have stated Bergevin has to stay with his structure except maybe in this case the structure can be a wee bit flexible. I doubt if a long term contract would cause any problems with the other players on the team. But, I don/t know for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see a trade coming. This could be a longer standoff then we would like, but one side or the other will eventually give in. Unfortunately for us, Meehan has a history of playing hard ball and getting teams to over pay.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really don't want to trade Subban however I don't want Bergevin to cave to his demands. I am in full agreement with Doug Maclean of Sportsnet who says unless I'm buying UFA year I have a hard time paying more than 4 million.

I also prefer the typical bridge contract.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Unless I'm buy UFA I have a hard time paying more than 4 million."

Wait, what? So it's okay to overpay on UFA for an asset you need than overpay on RFA for an asset you need? Does this make logic?

Did he really say that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you are buying his RFA years you have more control and bargaining power than if you extend his contract to buy the UFA years where he can go anywhere he wants. So in a short term deal you would not want to overpay but if you extend it to an eight year deal you need to pay for the year where he would not be under club control.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Unless I'm buy UFA I have a hard time paying more than 4 million."

Wait, what? So it's okay to overpay on UFA for an asset you need than overpay on RFA for an asset you need? Does this make logic?

Why would you overpay a player when the ONLY team that is bidding on his services is YOU. Does that make sense to you?

If he is signed to an offer sheet by another team then the Habs have a choice.

No team is going to sign him to an offer sheet that the Habs would easily match (ie. no one signs him to a $5M offer sheet)...they would sign him to a very long and significant deal. So, does a team think that signing Subban for over $6M a year for 7+ years is a good move? If he is signed to that kind of deal then the Habs have a choice...either they do it or let him go in what is a defacto trade (bearing in mind that they also keep the cap room...so it's a number of draft picks plus whatever they sign with the cap room).

Without an offer sheet the Habs would be utterly stupid to offer more then fair market value unless they want to sign him past his RFA years.

I think you are totally not understanding the concepts of markets, risk vs. reward and leverage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why would you overpay a player when the ONLY team that is bidding on his services is YOU. Does that make sense to you?

If he is signed to an offer sheet by another team then the Habs have a choice.

No team is going to sign him to an offer sheet that the Habs would easily match (ie. no one signs him to a $5M offer sheet)...they would sign him to a very long and significant deal. So, does a team think that signing Subban for over $6M a year for 7+ years is a good move? If he is signed to that kind of deal then the Habs have a choice...either they do it or let him go in what is a defacto trade (bearing in mind that they also keep the cap room...so it's a number of draft picks plus whatever they sign with the cap room).

Without an offer sheet the Habs would be utterly stupid to offer more then fair market value unless they want to sign him past his RFA years.

I think you are totally not understanding the concepts of markets, risk vs. reward and leverage.

Your opinion makes a lot of sense to me. I think that you are 100% right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know everyone hates Eklund, but I read this, had a laugh and had to post it. He is now reporting we are close to a deal with Subban for 6 years @ $4m per year. If that offer was possible, I'd imagine MB would of jumped all over that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/1/21/3884474/p-k-subban-vs-his-peers-habs-montreal-canadiens

so we have an elite defensemen acording to all the statistical analysis in the world. im not going to pretend i understand the math behind all this, but I can read words with the best of them, and according to the author of this article, Subban is a top-15 overall defensemen.

pay him and sign him like one MB.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/1/21/3884474/p-k-subban-vs-his-peers-habs-montreal-canadiens

so we have an elite defensemen acording to all the statistical analysis in the world. im not going to pretend i understand the math behind all this, but I can read words with the best of them, and according to the author of this article, Subban is a top-15 overall defensemen.

pay him and sign him like one MB.

The problem with all these numbers being thrown around putting him in the top-15 and showing how much the top-15 is signed for, is age. There are only 2 players in that list around PK's age, Doughty and Karlsson. Doughty is in the top 3(arguably 1st) of defensemen you want on the ice all the time, bar none. PK, according to that list is in in the top 15. Karlsson is the top offensive defenseman in the league last year. As others have pointed out with Kaberle, points from the back end cost money. Also, Doughty has proven his worth during the season, playoffs and internationally. Karlsson could yet turn out to be a bad signing.

I believe some worries are with PK's personality. He has the type of personality that could push himself to be the best defenseman in the league or he could sign this long deal and relax a little too much. Right now it seems as if PK is looking for a payday. It would be different is he was being offered $2.5m for 8 years, but from all reports he is being offered a short deal (2 years around). If PK was confident in his abilities to progress and knew he could improve his play, the short deal would work out in the long run for him. If he signs a 2 year deal and improves his play, his next deal would be in the realm of $7m per year. If he fears he has plateaued then he wants a long term deal to pay for sub-par play (Gomez, not to that extent hopefully).

This is only my opinion of course, but something doesn't seem right about what PK is doing. He should know this is a transition period for this and the next season. He probably has been informed of the cap changes and repercussions of the transition. To me, a team player would accept a fair short term deal to bridge this transition, instead of looking for a payday now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While I don't blame PK for driving a hard bargain, I agree that 'something doesn't seem right' about his approach under the circumstances. He is potentially jeopardizing his development as a player, and his relationship to the organization, in the name of a long-term deal - which, however defensible in principle, seems a puzzling demand for a player of PK's youth and self-confidence. Usually it's older players with families that have overpowering personal reasons to crave the stability that comes from a long-term deal. And if it's just about a big payday, I dunno, PK has always struck me as a guy who loves being out there...just the type to accept a bridge deal in the knowledge the huge bucks will follow.

For my money this is about Meehan. He identified PK as a player the Habs could not do without (both for hockey and for PR reasons) and identified the Habs's new management as a potentially vulnerable target. That's one reason why I support Bergevin refusing to knuckle under, with the caveat that Bergevin had better not be one of these Subban skeptics.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/1/21/3884474/p-k-subban-vs-his-peers-habs-montreal-canadiens

so we have an elite defensemen acording to all the statistical analysis in the world. im not going to pretend i understand the math behind all this, but I can read words with the best of them, and according to the author of this article, Subban is a top-15 overall defensemen.

pay him and sign him like one MB.

If you pay an RFA at UFA market levels you are hurting your ability to remain competitive in a salary cap world. Subban has NO CHOICE but to sign with the Habs or try to find an offer sheet to force their hand. Why would you want to pay more then you should when payroll dollars are a limited resource in the NHL??? Imagine paying Price, Pacioretty, Subban, Galchenyuk and say our next 1st round draft pick all at $6M+ within 2 years...instead of the RFA deals where they are manageable...that's almost half your salary cap on 5 guys. You wouldn't be able to surround them with any quality UFA's...so, great, you have a good young core but you can't afford anything more because you didn't manage money well and wanted to be a "nice guy" and pay Subban as a top 15 d-man despite his RFA status.

Bear in mind...for some teams signing guys to offer-sheets is about 2 things: identify the young guys you be willing to take a risk on at a UFA type deal. If the team matches the offer sheet you used then you are also limiting their ability to compete against you in the UFA market. You're advocating we simply do it without provocation...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Unless I'm buy UFA I have a hard time paying more than 4 million."

Wait, what? So it's okay to overpay on UFA for an asset you need than overpay on RFA for an asset you need? Does this make logic?

Agreed. For whatever reason this philosophical sentiment is a popular notion. But I'm with you.

Gotta ask everyone, how did letting Chelios, Desjardins, and such turn out long term?

Get Subban signed to an escalating long term contract.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem with all these numbers being thrown around putting him in the top-15 and showing how much the top-15 is signed for, is age. There are only 2 players in that list around PK's age, Doughty and Karlsson. Doughty is in the top 3(arguably 1st) of defensemen you want on the ice all the time, bar none. PK, according to that list is in in the top 15. Karlsson is the top offensive defenseman in the league last year. As others have pointed out with Kaberle, points from the back end cost money. Also, Doughty has proven his worth during the season, playoffs and internationally. Karlsson could yet turn out to be a bad signing.

I believe some worries are with PK's personality. He has the type of personality that could push himself to be the best defenseman in the league or he could sign this long deal and relax a little too much. Right now it seems as if PK is looking for a payday. It would be different is he was being offered $2.5m for 8 years, but from all reports he is being offered a short deal (2 years around). If PK was confident in his abilities to progress and knew he could improve his play, the short deal would work out in the long run for him. If he signs a 2 year deal and improves his play, his next deal would be in the realm of $7m per year. If he fears he has plateaued then he wants a long term deal to pay for sub-par play (Gomez, not to that extent hopefully).

This is only my opinion of course, but something doesn't seem right about what PK is doing. He should know this is a transition period for this and the next season. He probably has been informed of the cap changes and repercussions of the transition. To me, a team player would accept a fair short term deal to bridge this transition, instead of looking for a payday now.

I think it's fair to say that PK is asking too much, and the teams offer. Is ALSO to low. Thus...

On another note, no way does PK sit on his laurels. He is a work out demon and loves the ice also. This is probably the best guy for the Habs as an organisation in decades. He's the face already. He does everything you'd want in the community and gets along with everyone on his team but gets under thenskin of the opposition too. How perfect is that. Plus, he has the talent to be an all-star.

No one needs to worry about PK.

Many fans of the Habs are acting like children, the way they did with Price. Only Price deserved it a little bit. PK, NOT IN THE SLIGHTEST.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to be the guy that says the thread's too long to read it in its entirety but.... (sorry if this has been asked), does the potential of Subban sitting for a year burn that year as an RFA? I know in the case of a hold-out (ala Yashin, who was in the final year of his contract), that the contract is valid until the player plays out the duration of his contract (meaning sitting out didn't "complete" his contract). I'm guessing the year is burned with an RFA, however, and he's one year closer to UFA status.

Hopefully everything I've said is invalidated and Subban/Meehan and Bergevin agree sooner rather than later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you pay an RFA at UFA market levels you are hurting your ability to remain competitive in a salary cap world. Subban has NO CHOICE but to sign with the Habs or try to find an offer sheet to force their hand. Why would you want to pay more then you should when payroll dollars are a limited resource in the NHL??? Imagine paying Price, Pacioretty, Subban, Galchenyuk and say our next 1st round draft pick all at $6M+ within 2 years...instead of the RFA deals where they are manageable...that's almost half your salary cap on 5 guys. You wouldn't be able to surround them with any quality UFA's...so, great, you have a good young core but you can't afford anything more because you didn't manage money well and wanted to be a "nice guy" and pay Subban as a top 15 d-man despite his RFA status.

Bear in mind...for some teams signing guys to offer-sheets is about 2 things: identify the young guys you be willing to take a risk on at a UFA type deal. If the team matches the offer sheet you used then you are also limiting their ability to compete against you in the UFA market. You're advocating we simply do it without provocation...

Yes, that is what you do.

Your top 6, if bonafide studs get an average of 6 million each. That leaves 30 osh million for the others. At an average of about 2 million a piece

I think many teams do it this way:

Top 6: 30 to 36 million

Next 6: 20 to 24 million

Next 6: 12 million

Next 6: 6 million

Nothing wrong with that at all

Seems to have worked for all the best teams of the last decade.

It's about making sure you get value for where you spend your money. About safely slotting the players where they belong. This is what the Habs need to get better at.

I feel confident in a future top 6 earning big contracts of:

Price, Patch, Chens, Subban, 2 others TBD (Markov has two years left as a top tier - hopefully he returns to near form and earns it)

followed by Pleks as a tier 2, maybe tier 1. Qualified tweener. Despite what people say, he's a stud two way centre. One of the best in the league. Every team needs a great two way centre if you don't have a truely elite centre. Hopefully Chens becomes that.

Etc.

Edited by dreegking
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...