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Subban re-signs, 8 years, $72 million ($9 M AAV)


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Koivu was "ripped" in the media as a captain for not wanting to totally blend in the community (ie: try to improve his french language publicly). But I don't remember him being ripped as a hockey play

It's already being discussed in the arbitration thread but this warrants its own thread. 8 years, $72 million for Subban. http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=3470

What a relief. The second most important piece in a Cup victory, behind a goalie, is signed long term at a fair rate. Subban is the richest defenseman in the league and player in Montreal history, and

Gorges move looks pretty good now.

We should have about 6-7 mill in space to re-up on Gallager and Galchenyuk, I'm thinking. Not to mention Beaulieu and Tinordi. Could be tight.

It will be. This core has a two year window. I suspect this time next year there won't be many changes to the roster. On top of those RFA's, there's also Bournival to re-up with needing to re-sign/replace Weaver and Malhotra (I keep forgetting he's on the team even...) as well. I think they'll have a bit more space than that to re-sign those two although as things stand now, it shouldn't take more than that to keep them as it's all but guaranteed that they'll be in line for short-term contracts.

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A while ago, I ran some numbers to look at the cost of the bridge deal relative to what we were projecting Subban's next contract to be. As it turns out, both my estimate of his deal and the projections of the cap down the road were off a fair bit so I re-ran the numbers. The end result didn't change much though with regards to the 'cost' of the bridge contract. http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=3471

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Here's an interesting conversation point - now that subban has been locked up for 8 years and is the leagues highest paid defenceman, is there a higher chance he could be named the next captain?

I think the potential is huge. Say what you will about him, there can't be any doubt that subban tries to be the best possible teammate (look at his team canada experience). On top of that, it goes without saying he plays his heart out every single shift. I'd really only say Gallagher is on par with his relentless style.

At 8 years, he could solidify the captaincy. As much as I liked Gio, and I think he did a great job here, you could say he felt more like a stop gap captain in a way. Subban was bred a hab from day one.

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A while ago, I ran some numbers to look at the cost of the bridge deal relative to what we were projecting Subban's next contract to be. As it turns out, both my estimate of his deal and the projections of the cap down the road were off a fair bit so I re-ran the numbers. The end result didn't change much though with regards to the 'cost' of the bridge contract. http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=3471

Could you maybe send that to habs 29? He still don't get it. And in your calculations there is no cost of money projection which would show that the Habs paid a considerable amount less in yesterdays money (more valuable) than tomorrows money (less valuable). Paying in the future is less than paying today.

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Here's an interesting conversation point - now that subban has been locked up for 8 years and is the leagues highest paid defenceman, is there a higher chance he could be named the next captain?

I think the potential is huge. Say what you will about him, there can't be any doubt that subban tries to be the best possible teammate (look at his team canada experience). On top of that, it goes without saying he plays his heart out every single shift. I'd really only say Gallagher is on par with his relentless style.

At 8 years, he could solidify the captaincy. As much as I liked Gio, and I think he did a great job here, you could say he felt more like a stop gap captain in a way. Subban was bred a hab from day one.

I am warming up to that idea. He is an exciting individual who gives his all all the time. But I am not sure his emotional make up is Captain material. A yes.

I think a captain has to be really cool headed and able to talk to the refs . However his real job is being a conduit between the players and management

I really love PK but those are not attributes that he possesses in my opinion. Gio was good captain. Carbo a great captain. Gainey a great captain. Koivu was not a good captain (just my opinion guys) I just don't know who right now is the leader and has the respect of the room. Markov is the obvious choice but will he do it? I don't know, Maybe. Hal Gill I always thought would be a very good captain. Ahhh to hell lets give it to rob ramage.

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I am warming up to that idea. He is an exciting individual who gives his all all the time. But I am not sure his emotional make up is Captain material. A yes.

I think a captain has to be really cool headed and able to talk to the refs . However his real job is being a conduit between the players and management

I really love PK but those are not attributes that he possesses in my opinion.

I think I mostly agree. Subban is still hot headed, which isn't really a great captain quality. Passion yes, but not hot headedness. Still, if he were to slightly mature in that sense.. Who knows. I guess management will give us an answer.

What are the chances of another captain less season like when koivu wasn't resigned?

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A while ago, I ran some numbers to look at the cost of the bridge deal relative to what we were projecting Subban's next contract to be. As it turns out, both my estimate of his deal and the projections of the cap down the road were off a fair bit so I re-ran the numbers. The end result didn't change much though with regards to the 'cost' of the bridge contract. http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=3471

Just want to say what an excellent article this is. I really appreciate a rational analysis.

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I think I mostly agree. Subban is still hot headed, which isn't really a great captain quality. Passion yes, but not hot headedness. Still, if he were to slightly mature in that sense.. Who knows. I guess management will give us an answer.

What are the chances of another captain less season like when koivu wasn't resigned?

I don't know if it's the same situation because of the incoming UFAs/outgoing UFAs. Gainey took over and fired the whole team, lol.

Markov is the obvious choice, but I don't think he's very accesible. That's the only real knock. He seems like a player who would show you a lot if you asked him, but isn't the most forth right mentor. A good sign last year was I noticed him huddling players up before important faceoffs.

I think Subban would be a great captain. I don't see anything wrong with being hot headed. As long as he isn't chewing people out a la the Pacioretty incident in Ottawa, that works for me. Maybe in a few years, though. 9 million a year and the Captaincy in Montreal is too much for anyone to handle. Even Barry Obama.

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Who cares about savings in yesterday's money - more of the savings were wasted on the Briere and moen deals anyways.

The Habs are a money machine - actual dollar savings are irrelevant. Had he signed an 8 year deal at $6.5 or $7m, that is between a $2.5m or $2m cap savings in the years that matter - when galleghar and Galchenyuk have to be re-upped.

I'd rather have locked up Subban than overpaid a bunch of 4th liners and signed a washed up Briere. In a cal system, good teams lock up their elite players long term, the leafs, flames and panthers throw stupid money at kuleman, eglander and all the washed up old farts dale tallon signed.

Could you maybe send that to habs 29? He still don't get it. And in your calculations there is no cost of money projection which would show that the Habs paid a considerable amount less in yesterdays money (more valuable) than tomorrows money (less valuable). Paying in the future is less than paying today.

Craig button was on NHL radio and felt Subban should be the next captain - and this was before they signed him!!!

Here's an interesting conversation point - now that subban has been locked up for 8 years and is the leagues highest paid defenceman, is there a higher chance he could be named the next captain?

I think the potential is huge. Say what you will about him, there can't be any doubt that subban tries to be the best possible teammate (look at his team canada experience). On top of that, it goes without saying he plays his heart out every single shift. I'd really only say Gallagher is on par with his relentless style.

At 8 years, he could solidify the captaincy. As much as I liked Gio, and I think he did a great job here, you could say he felt more like a stop gap captain in a way. Subban was bred a hab from day one.

And messier wasn't hot headed???

I think I mostly agree. Subban is still hot headed, which isn't really a great captain quality. Passion yes, but not hot headedness. Still, if he were to slightly mature in that sense.. Who knows. I guess management will give us an answer.

What are the chances of another captain less season like when koivu wasn't resigned?

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habs 29 you sound like a very bitter man. I am sorry if I have added to it. I will endeavor not to do that again.

:rofl:

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A while ago, I ran some numbers to look at the cost of the bridge deal relative to what we were projecting Subban's next contract to be. As it turns out, both my estimate of his deal and the projections of the cap down the road were off a fair bit so I re-ran the numbers. The end result didn't change much though with regards to the 'cost' of the bridge contract. http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=3471

I agree with the numbers, but to play Devil's Advocate...

1. Not including the second deal, the Habs overspent on three years by 12 million, or about 7-8 million total during the life of a non-bridge deal.

2. This is a better option for defensemen, who are better at ages 27-32 than some forwards.

3. If a player pulls a Phaneuf, or a Heatley, or a Gomez they're stuck with a monster contract for practically forever.

But these are considerations for other players. In the case of Subban the gamble worked. What's more important than picking up a few extra Moens and Sekacs is that the bridge deal affords and extra 6 years instead of going to UFA.

The player that concerns me most under this model is Gallagher. He could be beat up like an '88 F150 by his late twenties.

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I agree with the numbers, but to play Devil's Advocate...

1. Not including the second deal, the Habs overspent on three years by 12 million, or about 7-8 million total during the life of a non-bridge deal.

2. This is a better option for defensemen, who are better at ages 27-32 than some forwards.

3. If a player pulls a Phaneuf, or a Heatley, or a Gomez they're stuck with a monster contract for practically forever.

But these are considerations for other players. In the case of Subban the gamble worked. What's more important than picking up a few extra Moens and Sekacs is that the bridge deal affords and extra 6 years instead of going to UFA.

The player that concerns me most under this model is Gallagher. He could be beat up like an '88 F150 by his late twenties.

Yep, these next few years is where it's going to sting. Thankfully, the new TV deal should help ease some of that pain.

I'm guessing you really don't like Sekac, do you? :) He's not in the same class as Moen or Prust (4th line type veterans), he's a prospect. If he doesn't pan out, he goes to the minors, they won't be stuck with him on the roster as they would with a veteran 'plug' getting signed.

As for Gallagher, I completely agree. His effort and hard work are fantastic but because of his style of play and smaller size, I'd have a hard time locking him in long-term.

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Yep, these next few years is where it's going to sting. Thankfully, the new TV deal should help ease some of that pain.

I'm guessing you really don't like Sekac, do you? :) He's not in the same class as Moen or Prust (4th line type veterans), he's a prospect. If he doesn't pan out, he goes to the minors, they won't be stuck with him on the roster as they would with a veteran 'plug' getting signed.

As for Gallagher, I completely agree. His effort and hard work are fantastic but because of his style of play and smaller size, I'd have a hard time locking him in long-term.

I don't really understand the Sekac deal. If he sticks, he makes a similar (most likely) contribution as Bournival, and if not, he could be a Nygren in Hamilton. With the Subban deal, this almost rules out a goon, except where you mentioned they can sign on a two way deal.

Rupp might be over the hill, but I think Carcillo or Bissonnette would have been good options. Maybe they can get Arron Asham. He was in the minors for most of last year. I don't want to see Tinordi taking on heavyweights next year.

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It's a lot of coin, but the point is that our franchise defenceman is locked up. As for the extent to which the bridge deal hurt us, Brian's analysis is pretty reassuring on this front. My one worry is whether, if Galchenyuk becomes and elite C, we will be able to carry his contract as well as PK's and Price's. But that's a worry for another day; what we have here is a happy ending to the Subban contract saga. :thumbs_up:

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I don't really understand the Sekac deal. If he sticks, he makes a similar (most likely) contribution as Bournival, and if not, he could be a Nygren in Hamilton. With the Subban deal, this almost rules out a goon, except where you mentioned they can sign on a two way deal.

Rupp might be over the hill, but I think Carcillo or Bissonnette would have been good options. Maybe they can get Arron Asham. He was in the minors for most of last year. I don't want to see Tinordi taking on heavyweights next year.

There's not a whole lot to understand. He appears to be an up-and-coming prospect that nearly half the league offered a contract to. It cost them nothing in terms of assets to acquire him and they have sufficient room on the 50-contract limit. Why not get him and see if there's something there? I suspect he'll have a greater contribution than Bournival if he cracks the lineup too.

That signing and the Subban deal shouldn't affect their ability to sign a goon if they want one. There's plenty of them out there and they still have cap space to add a fourth liner. Right now, my guess is that they're waiting for someone to take a two-way deal (a guy like Barch comes to mind) if they want one. Rupp's finished, so is Asham (I also seem to recall reading that his departure from the Habs years ago was not particularly a happy one). Most of the others out there are the dime-a-dozen type that will still be available a month from now. If they want one, they'll get one.

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$2m more than Dion Phaneuf.

Ain't no way you can be unhappy about the deal in those terms.

that's what i don't get about where MB's head was around. When you see what Phaneuf and Letang re-upped for, it should have been fairly obvious Subban was going to cost more, as he is I'd rather have him alone at $9M than Phaneuf and Letang at $9M.

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that's what i don't get about where MB's head was around. When you see what Phaneuf and Letang re-upped for, it should have been fairly obvious Subban was going to cost more, as he is I'd rather have him alone at $9M than Phaneuf and Letang at $9M.

Yeah that's very true.

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I have no doubt at all that within 2-3 years this contract will be well within normal parameters. It makes PK the highest-paid defenceman until the next star D-man signs a deal. The reason that people are a tiny bit unsettled by the cap hit - not that everyone isn't happy they've signed him - is that such a reaction is a normal part of the process of contract negotiation in a system in which the cap reliably rises. Each new deal feels inflated relative to its predecessors and comes to seem less extravagant as time passes. At the end of the day, I'm totally happy with the outcome; as Habs29 notes, what's surprising is that Zoot Suit seems honestly to have believed he could sign Subban for a comparatively modest cap hit.

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I have no doubt at all that within 2-3 years this contract will be well within normal parameters. It makes PK the highest-paid defenceman until the next star D-man signs a deal. The reason that people are a tiny bit unsettled by the cap hit - not that everyone isn't happy they've signed him - is that such a reaction is a normal part of the process of contract negotiation in a system in which the cap reliably rises. Each new deal feels inflated relative to its predecessors and comes to seem less extravagant as time passes. At the end of the day, I'm totally happy with the outcome; as Habs29 notes, what's surprising is that Zoot Suit seems honestly to have believed he could sign Subban for a comparatively modest cap hit.

I don't get the hang up on the average annual cap hit of other Dmen. Even without considering what the cap was when some of those deals were signed, those contracts really are a poor choice to compare to Subban's situation.

IMO the cap hits of Suter and Weber are irrelevant comparables. Those contracts are12 to 14 years and are front loaded deals that are paying around $11m + today. Isn't Weber's bonus payment alone this year $12M?

Similarily keith's cap hit was low because the hawks committed to him early and signed him to a long term (12 years?) - which is exactly what I wanted MB to do pre-lockout.

You also can't compare his cap hit to CHara, since it was signed so long ago. Even Karlsson and Doughty's annual cap hit are bad comparables, since their $6.5M and $7M salaries were signed when they were coming out of their entry level deals - NOT after 5 years.

The only other GM that is playing stupid is the new guy in Columbus. I get how they don't want to sign him to a 4 year deal, but they should push to get him signed to a $7.5m/8yr deal, or make him happy with around $5m/2 yr deal. They aren't exactly a prime destination, why they are screwing around with a guy who has superstar written all over him is beyond me.

I'm pretty certain that Subban's arbitration award would have been $8M (weber who didn't have a norris got $7.5m and that was 3 or 4 years ago). The habs had to know they would have looked liked idiots if SUbban was awarded $8M on a one year deal and the cost of signing Subban long-term would have risen higher than $9M next year - if the relationship wasn't damaged beyond repair. I think the Habs saw the light and caved in.

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I don't get the hang up on the average annual cap hit of other Dmen. Even without considering what the cap was when some of those deals were signed, those contracts really are a poor choice to compare to Subban's situation.

IMO the cap hits of Suter and Weber are irrelevant comparables. Those contracts are12 to 14 years and are front loaded deals that are paying around $11m + today. Isn't Weber's bonus payment alone this year $12M?

Similarily keith's cap hit was low because the hawks committed to him early and signed him to a long term (12 years?) - which is exactly what I wanted MB to do pre-lockout.

You also can't compare his cap hit to CHara, since it was signed so long ago. Even Karlsson and Doughty's annual cap hit are bad comparables, since their $6.5M and $7M salaries were signed when they were coming out of their entry level deals - NOT after 5 years.

The only other GM that is playing stupid is the new guy in Columbus. I get how they don't want to sign him to a 4 year deal, but they should push to get him signed to a $7.5m/8yr deal, or make him happy with around $5m/2 yr deal. They aren't exactly a prime destination, why they are screwing around with a guy who has superstar written all over him is beyond me.

I'm pretty certain that Subban's arbitration award would have been $8M (weber who didn't have a norris got $7.5m and that was 3 or 4 years ago). The habs had to know they would have looked liked idiots if SUbban was awarded $8M on a one year deal and the cost of signing Subban long-term would have risen higher than $9M next year - if the relationship wasn't damaged beyond repair. I think the Habs saw the light and caved in.

Are you talking about Ryan Johansen?

Fans worry too much about the salary cap. With the decline of free agency, imo, the game is going to change to keeping the elite players on pricey hometown deals.

Players like Kane, Toews, Subban don't exist in free agency anymore. Teams are going to sign their top flight guys to bigger deals. All about the draft and homegrown talent.

If we're worried about the Habs cap management let's compare their approach to Florida's:

The Habs have three top-5 players at their respective positions, Subban, Pacioretty and Price. They also have two of the best complementary players at the second line center and number two defensemen.

Florida has chosen an odd hybrid of building through the draft and signing complementary veterans on premium deals. They have exactly zero elite players. Their highest paid players are Brian Campbell and Dave Bolland. They also pay players like Dimitriy Kulikov premium dollars. They own the worst contract in history in Luongo.

Montreal spends less than three million more than Florida.

This is precisely why I was enraged at any penny pinching. The Habs thus far have managed the cap as well as any team in the league.

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