Trade Subban traded to Nashville

[Commandant]

But I think your prospect rankings would probably undermine the usefulness of analytics in comparing players. Take the case of Scherbak and McCarron last season. Pretty sure most or all of the analytics would show McCarron to be the better player in the AHL as a rookie. But those who think Sherbak is the better prospect would counter by saying, "Well, he's younger, not as physically developed, played with less talented linemates, has better hands" etc. The McCarron fans would counter counter by saying "Ya, but Mike is much bigger, plays a better all round game, is good on faceoffs, brings a physical presence" etc. There is truth in all of those statements, but whatever side you take, analytics would have virtually nothing to do with your choice between them. Why should it be different comparing Weber and Subban? Subban (presumably) comes out ahead on some set of analytics, but probably less so than McCarron compared to Scherbak. So again the argument devolves into comparing "intangibles". Presuming that one guy or the other is better for team chemistry, or provides more toughness, or is a better leader, or is more likely to be healthy going forward, or is a better style fit... yada yada. Statistical analysis would (and should) have very little impact on the choice between the two. I'm not sure how far these models go back in time, but I'd venture to say the numbers of both players varied over the years and one wasn't always ahead of the other.

You clearly illustrate that you don't understand analytics... goals, assists, and plus minus are not analytics.... and the prospect rankings were not based on analytics... they were based on watching their games since they were 16/17 til now. There are no AHL analytics.

The numbers weren't based on analytics. They were based on tangibles, skating, puck skill, vision, etc...

[DON]

Ok, I think we can all agree that Weber stats have shown decline. That is a no brainer. I am hopeful that a change of scenery and a new partner on the line help him turn that around and he has 2 career seasons ahead of him. Then we can move him while he still has value and not be stuck with the back end of his contract. Right now it is all just speculation. Nobody has any idea how he will do when paired with Beaulieu.

I believe his corsi will be a little different next years as will PKs. They are both headed to different situations. different systems. Shea will see his PP numbers blow up this year. Why? Capt Kirk is running the PP and I don't think DD will be on it. He never had that before and still had good PP numbers. PK will be rushing more and therefore scoring more but also being caught up ice more often. No MT holding him back. His game and corsi will also change. My point being, you can't assume a player will be the same corsi when he is on a new team, therefore I don't need to hear about it. It has no bearing on the future what so ever. It is like saying Glen Anderson was an elite goal scorer because he happened to play with Gretzky. He wasn't as was proven in Toronto, but his corsi rating in Edmonton was through the roof. You can use these stats to say how a player will probably perform given the same team, but corsi has no relevence IMO once a player has changed teams.

Not sure Weber's goal total showed much decline, but his PIMs did and he only had 27 all year, big decline. So, you are correct and at least one did and I think I basically agree with rest of post, albeit not knowing what Corsi is or Anderson #s were.

[Commandant]

It wasn't just D zone starts it was a combination of: Quality of teammates, Quality of competition and % of D zone starts used together in context that he used to come to his conclusions. He compared past years where Weber had great Corsi and the last four years where he did not and ran a correlation using these stats to shed a little more light on the Weber corsi situation.

"Given PK put up his highest Relative Corsi numbers the season he played with the strongest Teammates and given how much Weber’s Relative Corsi numbers plummeted over the last four seasons where he played with terrible teammates (and put up his worst Relative Corsi numbers the season he played with the worst teammates), I wondered about the relationship between the two variables. So I just ran correlations for the two variables for all players for each of the last two seasons and, sure enough, I found some reasonably strong correlations (r’s of .45 or so). So quality of teammates seems pretty important for driving Relative Corsi! That’s interesting because some suggest this statistic isolates the extent to which a player individually drives possession. Many have lamented this interpretation, however (see link below for thoughts). I can see why – teammates matter!"

http://drivingplay.blogspot.ca/2011/09/on-problem-with-corsi-

It wasn't just D zone starts it was a combination of: Quality of teammates, Quality of competition and % of D zone starts used together in context that he used to come to his conclusions. He compared past years where Weber had great Corsi and the last four years where he did not and ran a correlation using these stats to shed a little more light on the Weber corsi situation.

"Given PK put up his highest Relative Corsi numbers the season he played with the strongest Teammates and given how much Weber’s Relative Corsi numbers plummeted over the last four seasons where he played with terrible teammates (and put up his worst Relative Corsi numbers the season he played with the worst teammates), I wondered about the relationship between the two variables. So I just ran correlations for the two variables for all players for each of the last two seasons and, sure enough, I found some reasonably strong correlations (r’s of .45 or so). So quality of teammates seems pretty important for driving Relative Corsi! That’s interesting because some suggest this statistic isolates the extent to which a player individually drives possession. Many have lamented this interpretation, however (see link below for thoughts). I can see why – teammates matter!"

http://drivingplay.blogspot.ca/2011/09/on-problem-with-corsi-rel.html

I agree that stats are not the be all end all and that they should be used more often as just a tool not a measuring stick of how one player is better than another, that's not really what I am attempting to do. I am just trying to put the numbers in perspective for the crowd ready to take Weber out to the shed and old yeller his ass before he has even stepped foot on the ice in Montreal.

rel.html

I agree that stats are not the be all end all and that they should be used more often as just a tool not a measuring stick of how one player is better than another, that's not really what I am attempting to do. I am just trying to put the numbers in perspective for the crowd ready to take Weber out to the shed and old yeller his ass before he has even stepped foot on the ice in Montreal.

Where is the r of .45? it's certainly not in the article you linked.... and what is it based on... because the level of the correlation should not be based on one player. It should be based on hundreds.

Second here is the key to the zone starts...

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/21/zone-starts-and-impact-on-players-statistics/

"For me, the main evidence that zone starts don’t have a significant effect on a player’s overall statistics is if I remove the 45seconds after all offensive/defensive zone face offs (which basically ignores the entire shift) the majority of players have the same CF% +/- 1% and only a handful with heavy offensive or defensive zone starts have an effect in the +/- 1-2%. If removing all shifts that start with an offensive or defensive zone start does not dramatically impact a players overall statistics you simply cannot conclude that zone start bias plays a prominent role in driving a players overall statistics. Yes, for a particular shift it will, but not overall. Furthermore, the majority of that impact occurs in the first 10 seconds after a face off which is why my zone start adjusted data removes these 10 seconds which is something I showed over 3 years ago."

I also remind you that Subban's zone starts were actually worse than Webers when you pull the data.

On teammates. The player who everyone is saying is effecting Weber's corsi is Gaustad.

Here is the problem. Corsi is the relationship between shots for and shots against.

Gaustad is good in preventing shots against. The defensive half of the equation for Gaustad is good. The offensive half of the equation is very, very bad.

Weber is the opposite. His offensive side of the equation is very good. The defensive side shows real problems.

So gaustad being on the ice doesn't correlate to why Weber's defensive stats are so poor. How is Gaustad and the fourth line an explanation for Weber's defensive stats falling so much?

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/16/zone-starts-corsi-and-the-percentages/

[Commandant]

Ok, I think we can all agree that Weber stats have shown decline. That is a no brainer. I am hopeful that a change of scenery and a new partner on the line help him turn that around and he has 2 career seasons ahead of him. Then we can move him while he still has value and not be stuck with the back end of his contract. Right now it is all just speculation. Nobody has any idea how he will do when paired with Beaulieu.

I believe his corsi will be a little different next years as will PKs. They are both headed to different situations. different systems. Shea will see his PP numbers blow up this year. Why? Capt Kirk is running the PP and I don't think DD will be on it. He never had that before and still had good PP numbers. PK will be rushing more and therefore scoring more but also being caught up ice more often. No MT holding him back. His game and corsi will also change. My point being, you can't assume a player will be the same corsi when he is on a new team, therefore I don't need to hear about it. It has no bearing on the future what so ever. It is like saying Glen Anderson was an elite goal scorer because he happened to play with Gretzky. He wasn't as was proven in Toronto, but his corsi rating in Edmonton was through the roof. You can use these stats to say how a player will probably perform given the same team, but corsi has no relevence IMO once a player has changed teams.

I may not be 100% positive of how he will play with Beaulieu... but I'm 99.9% sure that Beaulieu is a downgrade on Roman Josi, the defenceman he played with last year. Expecting that changing partners will improve his stats doesn't seem to provide much hope that this will be the reason for his improvement.

And lets not compare these players to gretzky or these teams to the 80s oilers. Its an outlier. (and we also didn't keep track of Corsi in the 80s but i digress and say yeah it probably was better).

That said, yes teammates influence corsi. For most teammates the effect though is minimal. But we have to remember what the stats showed and that is based on the pure stats Weber is a defensive black hole that is not worthy of playing in the NHL. To be clear I'm not saying that is what Weber actually is. What I'm saying is that even when you adjust for zone starts and teammates and system he's still not at Subban's level. The adjustments help and the adjustments clearly explain why a guy who is a good defenceman can have such bad stats, but they don't put him back into elite territory.

So yes, teammates can have a small effect on possession, and if thats true than of course there may be outliers who can massively effect corsi. The idea that Gretzky, the greatest player of all-time, can have a big effect on corsi (where most guys on the Habs and Predators today are going to have small effects) yes I can buy that.

[Guest Stogey24]

You cant expect anyone to read that post to the end do you? You lost me early on, any chance you would have a coles note version for lazy people like me?

Haha

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

i AM so anticipating this season... more so then in seasons past! this trade has really shaken all of Habsworld... Cant wait to see how it all plays out... but seriuosly everyone continues to be beating the same drum over and over again!!

who does Carey Price prefer?? Cause i'm on his side!!

Seems the majority of players and coaches and GM's would prefer Shea over PK. Its funny how Pk Subban was a constant goat in the media year after year about all that is bad and now the habs trade him and he is the darling of hockey defencemen... give me a break Toronto Sports Network etc.

Price plays hockey in a month with his new BFF protecting him for 25+ minutes a game! Lets see why the players choose Shea as one of the very, elite... and lets see how subban does when the Price isn't Right.

[Guest Stogey24]

What does Price have to do with Subban having a good year?

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

Absolutely nothing...

[Guest Stogey24]

Then why did you just say let's see how Subban does when "the price isn't right"

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Yeah, that was a pretty incoherent post.

In any case, I expect the Habs to do pretty well, except possibly against super-fast teams. Price's return all but guarantees a big bounce-back.

Sadly, I am not very enthusiastic for the upcoming season, because I no longer believe in the management group. I think that we have about a two-year window in which to catch lightning in a bottle and win it all, before the stupidity of MB/MT really starts to take its inevitable toll on the organization's capacity to win. This is quite different from how I used to see things, which was that we were in good hands and that this management group just might have the ability to build a serious year-in, year-out contender.

[DON]

Sadly, I am not very enthusiastic for the upcoming season, because I no longer believe in the management group. I think that we have about a two-year window in which to catch lightning in a bottle and win it all, before the stupidity of MB/MT really starts to take its inevitable toll on the organization's capacity to win. This is quite different from how I used to see things, which was that we were in good hands and that this management group just might have the ability to build a serious year-in, year-out contender.

Why? Are stronger at RW, are tougher on the back end, Beaulieu most think will improve and possibly play 20+minutes, so have average to above average top 4.

Roster now is just a bit inexperienced on LW and I don't any other holes in lineup and if a Carr or Lehkonen can hold their own on the left side, Radulov can produce and Muller can help the PP (cant hurt it that is for sure), team should have a good season.

What is the big issue? That your favourite player got traded, it happens and is history now. What is with all this 'inevitable toll" and other dire predictions or outlook?

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Why? Are stronger at RW, are tougher on the back end, Beaulieu most think will improve and possibly play 20+minutes, so have average to above average top 4.

Roster now is just a bit inexperienced on LW and I don't any other holes in lineup and if a Carr or Lehkonen can hold their own on the left side, Radulov can produce and Muller can help the PP (cant hurt it that is for sure), team should have a good season.

What is the big issue? That your favourite player got traded, it happens and is history now. What is with all this 'inevitable toll" and other dire predictions or outlook?

Because I regard the trade as the act of a regime that is more interested in its own egos and agendas than winning. This is not a sustainable recipe IMHO.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Price plays hockey in a month with his new BFF protecting him for 25+ minutes a game!

From a Predators fan on HFBoards:

Someone is gonna have to teach (Shea Weber) about standing up for the goalie like you describe. It is the one thing that pisses me off about this team. Basically Pekka has to get charged before our players get in the faces of opponents that end the play in Peks face. Drives me nuts they aren't more territorial and protective.

[Dalhabs]

I like it that the management show they are the boss. Just look at the great Manchester United when Sir Alex Ferguson was the manager. No player was ever bigger than the boss and it was a great dynasty team in football. After retireing Man United has not been the same.

I think the pk trade look bad now but if pk thought he was bigger than his bosses (which might be the truth concidering his comedy act) then byebye.

Wish we got something extra in the trade like an extra 2nd rounder but ok what is done is done.

[Commandant]

I like it that the management show they are the boss. Just look at the great Manchester United when Sir Alex Ferguson was the manager. No player was ever bigger than the boss and it was a great dynasty team in football. After retireing Man United has not been the same.

I think the pk trade look bad now but if pk thought he was bigger than his bosses (which might be the truth concidering his comedy act) then byebye.

Wish we got something extra in the trade like an extra 2nd rounder but ok what is done is done.

Nothing about this current management regime has convinced me that they should be mentioned in the same breathe as Sir Alex.

[Dalhabs]

Nothing about this current management regime has convinced me that they should be mentioned in the same breathe as Sir Alex.

In his third or fourth year as manager fans were demanding for sir Alex to be fired... Good they didnt.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Nothing about this current management regime has convinced me that they should be mentioned in the same breathe as Sir Alex.

Bergie's Fledglings: Galchenyuk/McCarron/Scherbak/Juulsen/Sergachev?

[Commandant]

In his third or fourth year as manager fans were demanding for sir Alex to be fired... Good they didnt.

How many times did he run a supremely talented player out of town and didn't get fair value.

He kept Cantona.

He gave up Beckham and Ronaldo only when the offers were so outrageous that he couldn't refuse them. It wasn't so much not wanting to keep them, but selling them at huge premiums. If we got a huge premium for Subban the move would make sense.

So who is the guy he forced out of United because they were too big for the team? Who is the guy who was bigger than his bosses?

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

The analogy with Man U is about as plausible as me saying that Mario Tremblay and Reggie Houle showed Patrick Roy 'who was boss' and the results led the Habs into a decade of wretchedness.

Neither Houle nor Ferguson have anything to do with The Trade, which was an idiotic trade that makes our team worse. Clinging to examples of teams that survived bad trades to become elite is hardly a sensible way of defending it.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

When management fights a player, the team usually loses. I think one of the few times where the team won was like Alexei Yashin. Ottawa got Spezza out of it.

[BCHabnut]

So we were talking power play prowess. Now I understand that people normally will not change a stance easily, but I'm gonna whip a dead horse here. Goals are equal to assists? If you want to think a second assist is equal to a goal, that's your deal. Don't continue reading. For me, A second assist is not the same as burying a puck. PK had 19 first assists last season out of his 45. He had 7 first assists and 2 goals on the PP. The rest of his PP points were him passing the puck or just touching it before someone else set up or scored a goal. So 9 of his PP points were direct impact. 1st assist or goal. Weber had 25 assists but 13 were first assists. On the PP he had 4 first assists and 14 goals. He directly impacted the PP 18 times. Obviously there is more to it than this, and some second assists will be what created the goal, but I think to just blurt out that assists and goals are exactly the same, to me it just doesn't add up.

If you look through this thread you can see that I hate this trade, but I am willing to look at some of the positives and how they will affect team balance.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

The analogy with Man U is about as plausible as me saying that Mario Tremblay and Reggie Houle showed Patrick Roy 'who was boss' and the results led the Habs into a decade of wretchedness.

Neither Houle nor Ferguson have anything to do with The Trade, which was an idiotic trade that makes our team worse. Clinging to examples of teams that survived bad trades to become elite is hardly a sensible way of defending it.

I know opinions are what it's all about but it's not a fact that the team got worse due to the trade. People who are saying this are looking at the trade at such a microscopic level. A trade of that magnitude reverberates throughout many levels and even IF one argued that Subban is better than Weber skill wise, it's doesn't even mean the team as a whole gets worse. I've read that you think that this is a silly argument but the trade has exponential effects. It's more than looking at it 1vs1. I won't argue that we don't get Radulov if we don't trade Subban for Weber because that would be theoretical but I do believe we made a harder push for Radulov than we may have after trading for Weber.

It was a bad trade but we're better. Regardless of "how much better we would have been if we kept Subban", which one of those statements is more important?

I honestly don't know how 16 teams made the playoffs without Subban last season.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

When management fights a player, the team usually loses. I think one of the few times where the team won was like Alexei Yashin. Ottawa got Spezza out of it.

Hamonic is still on the Islanders and Drouin is still on the Lightning. Not necessarily the exact same thing but it's safe to say both teams would have/will lose if they move them as well. Smart GMing so far on both parts.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Hamonic is still on the Islanders and Drouin is still on the Lightning. Not necessarily the exact same thing but it's safe to say both teams would have/will lose if they move them as well. Smart GMing so far on both parts.

To be fair, Hamonic didn't want to leave. He just thought he had to at one point due to a family concern.

Let's see what Drouin signs his RFA contract for before we call that fight over. He also got what he wanted, which was top six playing time.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

To be fair, Hamonic didn't want to leave. He just thought he had to at one point due to a family concern.

Let's see what Drouin signs his RFA contract for before we call that fight over. He also got what he wanted, which was top six playing time.

Yeah but I mean not that I buy into it myself but if there is an argument that say Bergevin traded players like Kassian, Subban etc. in part due to ego (I know he warned Kassian) then these GMs didn't make the same mistake. Snow could have traded Hamonic at low value and Yzerman could have done the same with Drouin.

As I said, both teams could still lose the "fight" you mentioned although I admit that I didn't realize Hamonic's personal issues had been resolved.