Trade Subban traded to Nashville

[nihilz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsdy_rct6uo

muhahahahahahahhaahaaa

[DON]

The voters for the Norris trophy believed that Weber had a better year last year than Subban. Does that not hold any merit? Why did Subban have an off year but that's just an anomaly on his guaranteed path to super stardom? How is his performance last season being paid as the best defenseman in the world justified? In what world is 1.5 million dollars per goal scored deemed acceptable? If you're the highest paid player in your position and you don't perform like it, it is detrimental to the entire team. I don't understand saying for certain that Montreal lost this trade today. Because based on last season it seems like we won. For all we know, this could be the start of Subban's decline and Weber could go on to win a couple Norris trophies.

Blasphemer!

[illWill]

'The start of PK's decline'...sure, that is theoretically possible. But usually elite players don't keel over at age 27. This is yet another far-fetched scenario invoked to support a poor decision by management. By far the most likely explanation is that PK's 'off' season was caused by trying too hard to pull the team out of its skid. Unless something extraordinary happens, PK will be a dominant player for the next 10 years.

My favorite part of this response is when none of my valid questions were answered, only a general hypothetical situation I threw in at the end. Was PK worth 9 million last year? Will he be next year? That's a huge number to be paying someone not to perform to that level. In this salary cap era, it is more important than ever for a player to play to what they are being paid. There is actual value associated to salary cap hit. Pacioretty plays miles above his cap hit, thus is even more of an asset than a comparable player who gets paid more. So conversely if someone is performing at a lesser rate than their cap hit, their overall value is lower. And I know it's "not his job to score goals", but PK needs to bury more than 6 to justify his contract.

[Commandant]

Sure. But there are no records about them. There is no one asking every other teams players after a game how many times they made a quick pass or dumped a puck because of another player who was intimidating him.

There is no way to count how many times X player used to dive in front of a slapshot when Y player was on the ice with him compared to how often he does it now with Z player now playing on his team.

There is no statistic tool to rate the degree of motivation coming out of a locker room speech by X or Y player.

You don't have to ask if they made a play because they were intimidated, but you are going to see more turnovers and less possession.... that would happen.

Yes there are statistics to show how many times players blocked shots.

If the motivation is making players play better you will see an uptick in a number of individuals on the team's play.

Funny enough intangibles is a pretty terrible word for them if they're to have any significance. But I still think the reason they're hard to measure is because the team functions as a whole, and therefore even if Shea positively impacts the teams game, it could be negatively affected by something else, making Shea's impact look negliable. Maybe the loss of PK and Eller demoralized a few players and they perform worse, while others play better. Basically maybe, maybe, maybe maybe.

Also correlation is not causation. Just because other people are playing better (or worse) after a trade does not mean the trade was the cause.

No, correlation is not causation... but there have been enough trades and free agent signings in recent years... of these players with leadership... that it would be noticeable in stats if it was true factor. Get enough of a sample size of "leaders" flipping teams, and you can see the causation there by eliminating other possible causes.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

My favorite part of this response is when none of my valid questions were answered, only a general hypothetical situation I threw in at the end. Was PK worth 9 million last year? Will he be next year? That's a huge number to be paying someone not to perform to that level. In this salary cap era, it is more important than ever for a player to play to what they are being paid. There is actual value associated to salary cap hit. Pacioretty plays miles above his cap hit, thus is even more of an asset than a comparable player who gets paid more. So conversely if someone is performing at a lesser rate than their cap hit, their overall value is lower. And I know it's "not his job to score goals", but PK needs to bury more than 6 to justify his contract.

PK's goals scored totals in his NHL career:

14

7

11

10

15

6 [in 68 games]

So what he is is a 10-15 goal guy who had an off year in terms of goals scored. Or, at least, that is what a rational analyst not trying to retroactively justify this trade would conclude.

If the trade was made on the assumption that last year's Subban was the best Subban can do, then it represents absurdly blinkered thinking. Carey Price had a .905 save per centage in 2013; does it follow that we should have traded him for Roberto Luongo?

Is Subban worth $9 mil? I dunno, is Weber worth $8 mil? Will he be worth $8 mil in the last five years of his contract? Since Weber is better than PK at goal-scoring and hitting, and inferior to him in pretty much every other aspect of the game, the whole line of inquiry seems to be predicated on the idea that only goal-scoring matters - by which logic Michael Ryder is a better player than, say, Tomas Plekanec.

All that said: if Weber suffers no drop-off in his game over the next decade, while Subban inexplicably craters into mediocrity, then yes! This will be a good trade.

[habs rule]

PK's goals scored totals in his NHL career:

14

7

11

10

15

6 [in 68 games]

So what he is is a 10-15 goal guy who had an off year in terms of goals scored. Or, at least, that is what a rational analyst not trying to retroactively justify this trade would conclude.

If the trade was made on the assumption that last year's Subban was the best Subban can do, then it represents absurdly blinkered thinking. Carey Price had a .905 save per centage in 2013; does it follow that we should have traded him for Roberto Luongo?

Is Subban worth $9 mil? I dunno, is Weber worth $8 mil? Will he be worth $8 mil in the last five years of his contract? Since Weber is better than PK at goal-scoring and hitting, and inferior to him in pretty much every other aspect of the game, the whole line of inquiry seems to be predicated on the idea that only goal-scoring matters - by which logic Michael Ryder is a better player than, say, Tomas Plekanec.

All that said: if Weber suffers no drop-off in his game over the next decade, while Subban inexplicably craters into mediocrity, then yes! This will be a good trade.

bingo

[illWill]

So what he is is a 10-15 goal guy who had an off year in terms of goals scored. Or, at least, that is what a rational analyst not trying to retroactively justify this trade would conclude.

If the trade was made on the assumption that last year's Subban was the best Subban can do, then it represents absurdly blinkered thinking. Carey Price had a .905 save per centage in 2013; does it follow that we should have traded him for Roberto Luongo?

Is Subban worth $9 mil? I dunno, is Weber worth $8 mil? Will he be worth $8 mil in the last five years of his contract? Since Weber is better than PK at goal-scoring and hitting, and inferior to him in pretty much every other aspect of the game, the whole line of inquiry seems to be predicated on the idea that only goal-scoring matters - by which logic Michael Ryder is a better player than, say, Tomas Plekanec.

All that said: if Weber suffers no drop-off in his game over the next decade, while Subban inexplicably craters into mediocrity, then yes! This will be a good trade.

The data that is most relevant is that of last season and Weber earned more of his 7.86 than PK earned of his 9 million. Weber was voted as having had the better year on the ice by the Norris voting committee and he also earned less money. I don't know how that simple logic is getting spun around to everything else. I am talking about right now, on this very day comparing the two players and the value they bring to their teams.

[JoeLassister]

No, correlation is not causation... but there have been enough trades and free agent signings in recent years... of these players with leadership... that it would be noticeable in stats if it was true factor. Get enough of a sample size of "leaders" flipping teams, and you can see the causation there by eliminating other possible causes.

So, did you analyze it ?

There is a huge difference between saying it doesn't exist when no one analyzed it and saying it doesn't exist after someone did analyze it.

But now, how do you create your sample ? How do you consider a player being a "leader" or not in order to prove an increase or a decrease?

[Meller93]

Where I'm a bit puzzled by Meller's post is his assertion that supporters of the trade are looking at its effect 'going forward.' I say that PK is a better overall player right now, and that the separation between them will most likely grow over the next decade. So 'going forward' I think the trade will only grow worse and worse. If by 'going forward' we mean only the short term, then I can agree that the drop-off will not be huge enough to seriously handicap the Habs, except perhaps against ultra-fast teams. But my belief is that it's a bad trade right now and will in all likelihood only get worse.

I understand the confusion around that part too, o should have stressed that there is a general assertion that the TEAM will be better, i.e Shea fits for the habs better than Subban.

I happen to think Subban is still the better choice to, but that's simply what much of the argument has boiled down to from what I've read.

[DON]

I will help you out CC, not 10-15g/yr, it is 10.5g/season, but 0.66g/$million last year does kinda suck, especially given the PP time he had. Of course it isn't his job to score goals, but still.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I understand the confusion around that part too, o should have stressed that there is a general assertion that the TEAM will be better, i.e Shea fits for the habs better than Subban.

He doesn't fit the team better. He fits the coaching better. And Montreal has some of the worst coaching in the league. I'm not talking just Therrien. I'm counting the assistants, who I doubt will get jobs elsewhere when this all falls apart (save for Muller who is better respected than all of them). The best of them went to Florida and there's a guy here who will tell you what good he has done over there. What's left is a coaching staff swimming upstream protected by the GM from any blame.

[DON]

He doesn't fit the team better. He fits the coaching better. And Montreal has some of the worst coaching in the league. I'm not talking just Therrien. I'm counting the assistants, who I doubt will get jobs elsewhere when this all falls apart (save for Muller who is better respected than all of them). The best of them went to Florida and there's a guy here who will tell you what good he has done over there. What's left is a coaching staff swimming upstream protected by the GM from any blame.

So what don't you like about Muller & Waite? And what specifically don't you like about JJD coaching?

What does a Florida team loaded with #1 picks have to do with Habs? Habs PP sucked before the Florida coach quit, so what has he proven since being a NHL coach?

A monkey should be able to coach and win with the picks and youngsters they have had, no?

Lets hear who you want to (realistically) see behind the bench.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

The amusing part of this has become those who discredit factors outside of numbers, statistics and even the eye test. I.E. intangibles. Has anyone honestly ever heard anything said about Weber and his personality that has been spun around in negative fashion? Have they heard anything about Subban? You know, even rumors can cause friction amongst individuals.

I can't remember, what were the letters on their respective jerseys on their previous teams? Has Weber been the best player on Nashville, skillfully all those seasons? Has Subban been the best skillfully on the Montreal Canadiens? I'm sure a lot would argue that Subban has been our best player in some seasons outside of Price but yet, he wasn't voted team captain. How do his supporters with all this statistical evidence of his shot suppression and assist totals explain that?

Here's a question, If Weber is on our team last season and had been for as long as Subban and Pacioretty, who would have been voted captain? I know the answer. Although, I'm sure somehow his wisdom, leadership and knowledge has diminished with his old age at 31. Ever hear the saying that 60 is the new 40? What would that make 31? Weber has years of good hockey left and those who are waiting for his actual decline will be in a bad mood for close to a decade over this move.

Intangibles are extremely real and important. I agree that they can be hard to actually measure but I think the empirical evidence is strong in terms of the presence Weber brings to the room. Why is it that the team plays better when Price is in net? We certainly have more success since Price is in the net but the team plays better as well. Part of the reason can be attributed to Price's puck handling skills and the pressure he takes off of our defense but the mental confidence he gives the team is huge as well. This will be the same reason the team will play strong under Weber's presence. There is more to it than his goals.

CC, you said it yourself. When the team was faltering, Subban tried too hard to carry the team on his back all by himself. This is an intangible, mental factor that can make or break a team. I'll be the first one cheering when Nashville wins the cup and Subban wins the Conne Smythe due to him being their most valuable player during their run. I won't hold my breath for either of those things to happen though even though Nashville has a strong team.

[Commandant]

PK's goals scored totals in his NHL career:

14

7

11

10

15

6 [in 68 games]

So what he is is a 10-15 goal guy who had an off year in terms of goals scored. Or, at least, that is what a rational analyst not trying to retroactively justify this trade would conclude.

If the trade was made on the assumption that last year's Subban was the best Subban can do, then it represents absurdly blinkered thinking. Carey Price had a .905 save per centage in 2013; does it follow that we should have traded him for Roberto Luongo?

Is Subban worth $9 mil? I dunno, is Weber worth $8 mil? Will he be worth $8 mil in the last five years of his contract? Since Weber is better than PK at goal-scoring and hitting, and inferior to him in pretty much every other aspect of the game, the whole line of inquiry seems to be predicated on the idea that only goal-scoring matters - by which logic Michael Ryder is a better player than, say, Tomas Plekanec.

All that said: if Weber suffers no drop-off in his game over the next decade, while Subban inexplicably craters into mediocrity, then yes! This will be a good trade.

If goal scoring is all that matters, Marc-Andre Bergeron never would have left the NHL.

[Commandant]

So, did you analyze it ?

There is a huge difference between saying it doesn't exist when no one analyzed it and saying it doesn't exist after someone did analyze it.

But now, how do you create your sample ? How do you consider a player being a "leader" or not in order to prove an increase or a decrease?

Did i personally? no

Have people? yes

Here are some interesting things people have done on pure numbers vs trying to incorporate what hockey people see as intangibles.

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/how-much-would-you-pay-for-intangibles-in-nhl---trending-topics-134919427.html

"The fact of the matter is that what is considered “intangible” should have some sort of a tangible effect on the ice. Leadership, or accountability, or whatever you want to call “being good in the room,” should be provable. For instance, we should be able to dig into the numbers, of which we have so many these days, and point to some aspect of the sport, and say that his leadership results in improved performance in such-and-such a capacity. Players who are perceived to provide little or no leadership — Mikhail Grabovski, for example — should do something worse than Callahan. Or his teammates should do something worse when he's on the ice, but when you dig into them, that's not the case."

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/stanley-cup-playoffs-bracket-showdown-advanced-stats-vs-the-eye-test/

Interesting your cup winner is #1 on the pure stats, and the finalist is #3, before the playoffs. Those teams were intangibles were weighted.. they didnt' do so well.

Here are some more

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/nhl-trade-became-referendum-intangibles-trending-topics-145942053--nhl.html

And from the world of the NFL and advanced stats

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/10/stats-measure-intangibles.html

And there is more, a simple google search will take you there.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Here's a question, If Weber is on our team last season and had been for as long as Subban and Pacioretty, who would have been voted captain? I know the answer.

If Komisarek re-signed with the Habs in 2009-2010, Gainey would have likely made him captain.

[nihilz]

Better to have Cadillac than a Maserati when driving the streets of Montreal.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

If Komisarek re-signed with the Habs in 2009-2010, Gainey would have likely made him captain.

The players on the team voted for our last captain.

[Meller93]

He doesn't fit the team better. He fits the coaching better. And Montreal has some of the worst coaching in the league. I'm not talking just Therrien. I'm counting the assistants, who I doubt will get jobs elsewhere when this all falls apart (save for Muller who is better respected than all of them). The best of them went to Florida and there's a guy here who will tell you what good he has done over there. What's left is a coaching staff swimming upstream protected by the GM from any blame.

I'm not sure if you somehow got the idea I think Weber is better because of that post. I said directly after I still think Subban is the better choice, I was simply reffering to an argument some people make.

[Commandant]

I'm still confused as to how many more wins we get cause the C is on one player's jersey vs if it is on the other player's jersey.

[nihilz]

I'm still confused as to how many more wins we get cause the C is on one player's jersey vs if it is on the other player's jersey.

Ask Kovalev.. pff ff ff..

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I'm not sure if you somehow got the idea I think Weber is better because of that post. I said directly after I still think Subban is the better choice, I was simply reffering to an argument some people make.

I didn't say anything about you saying Weber being better? I was referring exclusively to, "there is a general assertion that the TEAM will be better"

[xXx..CK..xXx]

I'm still confused as to how many more wins we get cause the C is on one player's jersey vs if it is on the other player's jersey.

You must have a really bad headache after every game trying to figure out what exactly lead to every single W. The point is there's a reason someone gets picked over another. If it's not the stats, then what is it?

I'm only arguing that the trade is a relative wash and not as disastrous as people are making it out to be. We've lost trades before but there hasn't been a reaction like this. I'm personally still confused how many more losses we get after trading Subban. Quantify that for me.

[Scott462]

Guys guys guys...

We have been overlooking one crucial aspect here.

Shea Webers rating in NHL 16 is higher than Subbans

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Guys guys guys...

We have been overlooking one crucial aspect here.

Shea Webers rating in NHL 16 is higher than Subbans

I'll never forget NHL97 (or was it 96?) which had Ron Hextall with a higher overall rating than Roy.