Trade Subban traded to Nashville

[Commandant]

And yet seems that Stat Geeks are being hired and fired in very short order. "Thanks kid..thats all ya got! OK, we will take it from here."

And coaches and GMs around the league, and scouts, and all kinds of old school people are hired and fired in short order too... whats your point?

And two of the teams that are winning regularly with 5 recent cups between them, LA and Chicago were two of the very first teams to adopt analytics. The two cup finalists Pittsburgh and San Jose were 1st and 3rd in Corsi this year. Coincidence? Not really.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

And around and around it goes. Don Cherry logic loves the trade, other ways of thinking are skeptical.

I still think habs rule has summarized it as tidily as anyone. Best case scenario, this trade is a lateral move, in which we happen to get the older guy with the worse contract. Yippee.

Machine, I don't know if I'd go as far as you do in that post, but I'm inclined to agree that Bergevin has had one eye on trading Subban ever since PK played hard-ball in the contract negotiation (over which Bergevin was reportedly furious, even though Subban was 100% justified in doing so, since the team had played hard-ball with him over the bridge deal. Must have been tough for Bergy to be hoist on the ptard o his own blinkered thinking and stupidity). I've said all along, this trade was about managerial ego as much as anything else. Subban wasn't a robot, he dared to have his own brand, and even to show them up on occasions like the hospital donation or the contract negotiation. That's part of what drove this totally unnecessary trade.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

And coaches and GMs around the league, and scouts, and all kinds of old school people are hired and fired in short order too... whats your point?

And two of the teams that are winning regularly with 5 recent cups between them, LA and Chicago were two of the very first teams to adopt analytics. The two cup finalists Pittsburgh and San Jose were 1st and 3rd in Corsi this year. Coincidence? Not really.

That seems so obvious in retrospect though. I doubt a team's management really tells their players to be tops in the league analytically because it is basically an impossible goal to achieve. What about 2nd in the league last season? What good did it do them? This has been said before but Pittsburgh was good because it had solid analytics but it also had solid analytics because it was a really good team. It works both ways.

Do you expect me to believe that Pittsburgh and San Jose will both be top 3 in analytics again next year and still both make the finals? Or was it only last year that they tried to have the highest Corsi and this year they won't be able to prevent other teams from catching up?

You do not have to defend analytics once again. I'm becoming interested in them myself. Where I have a problem with them is when people attempt to use them as a predictive measure of the future. Especially in extreme situations like a change in environment (teams).

[Commandant]

That seems so obvious in retrospect though. I doubt a team's management really tells their players to be tops in the league analytically because it is basically an impossible goal to achieve. What about 2nd in the league last season? What good did it do them? This has been said before but Pittsburgh was good because it had solid analytics but it also had solid analytics because it was a really good team. It works both ways.

Do you expect me to believe that Pittsburgh and San Jose will both be top 3 in analytics again next year and still both make the finals? Or was it only last year that they tried to have the highest Corsi and this year they won't be able to prevent other teams from catching up?

You do not have to defend analytics once again. I'm becoming interested in them myself. Where I have a problem with them is when people attempt to use them as a predictive measure of the future. Especially in extreme situations like a change in environment (teams).

Do teams tell players to be tops analytically? No.

But a team that takes an analytics based approach attempts to acquire players who have good puck possession numbers but are being undervalued by their team, such pittsburgh trading for Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz... two defencemen who are very good at moving the puck... or getting Hagelin, and Bonino, two guys who were good analytically.

Funny thing is teams that are top 5 analytically keep winning the cup.... see Chicago and LA...

And yes, if you are a good puck possession team, and make very few changes to your roster, you will probably still be a good puck possession team the following year (understanding that your roster will be a year older so young kids get better, veterans may regress etc...); but yes good possession teams generally stay good possession teams.

Does it guarantee a cup... no, some luck goes into any cup, injuries, a bounce here, a hot goalie, etc... but if you are near the tops you at least make yourself a contender. You can't guarantee a cup but you give yourself a better chance. The better regular season corsi team wins 70% of playoff series, don't you think that is a good thing to strive to achieve?

Since Corsi was tracked a top 5 team wins the cup every year, except one... the 2009 Penguins, who were a bad corsi team for half a season with Therrien coaching and no Sergei Gonchar, but were a top 3 team in the second half with Bylsma coaching and Gonchar back.

So

[Machine of Loving Grace]

That seems so obvious in retrospect though.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sportsnets-analytics-experts-reveal-stanley-cup-playoffs-picks/

This is from April. Every one of them had Pittsburgh in the final. One of them had San Jose. Look at the score adjusted corsi numbers as well.

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-chat-staples-willis-mccurdy-preview-opening-round-of-the-stanley-cup-playoffs

They discuss Pittsburgh's score adjusted fenwick in the last 25 games of the season.

http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/05/30/2016-stanley-cup-final-prediction-advanced-analytics-statistics

They predicted the Penguins to beat San Jose, pointing out their stronger five on five play, unblocked shot attempts, and the Penguins high chances throughout the roster. This all while crediting San Jose's physical play in prior series'.

Hope this helps your interest.

[Commandant]

If you really think about what analytics measure it makes sense. If one team has the puck more than the other team... if that team takes more shots at the net than the other team... if that team controls the game; most nights, but not all, they are the winner. It takes a great goaltending performance to beat a team that controls the game. And thats all analytics are, telling you who controls the game when each player is on the ice.

So all its saying is the team that is better at controlling the game wins the playoff series 70% of the time. Makes sense no?

[Machine of Loving Grace]

If you really think about what analytics measure it makes sense. If one team has the puck more than the other team... if that team takes more shots at the net than the other team... if that team controls the game; most nights, but not all, they are the winner. It takes a great goaltending performance to beat a team that controls the game. And thats all analytics are, telling you who controls the game when each player is on the ice.

It's about increasing the odds.

You can of course lose a game holding the puck 95% of the time if you can't score during that time while the other team converts in the 5% of the time they have the puck.

But if you have the puck more than 50% of the time, and you take shots that make the goalie instead of being blocked, and you fill your roster with players that can both carry the puck and distribute the puck, you're going to have a good chance of tiring your opponent, forcing your opponent to sacrifice their body, likely to get more powerplay opportunities, and put less work on your goaltender to stop shots. Instead of relying on luck or good bounces, you're angling the ice in your favour.

Increasing your odds does not guarantee victory, just as carrying the puck doesn't equal scoring more. But why wouldn't you want to do everything possible to increase your odds of winning any given night?

[Commandant]

Also when we talk about luck and good bounces... there is more of a chance of getting that good bounce, of getting a puck to go in off a skate, or have a rebound squirt to one of your players, when the puck spends more time in front of the other teams net. Its pretty hard (but not impossible) to get a bad bounce leading to a goal when the puck is in your possession in the other team's end and easier for that to happen in your own end. Its just the law of averages, and you can increase your chances of being lucky by putting pucks on the other team's net.

[BCHabnut]

And around and around it goes. Don Cherry logic loves the trade, other ways of thinking are skeptical.

I still think habs rule has summarized it as tidily as anyone. Best case scenario, this trade is a lateral move, in which we happen to get the older guy with the worse contract. Yippee.

Machine, I don't know if I'd go as far as you do in that post, but I'm inclined to agree that Bergevin has had one eye on trading Subban ever since PK played hard-ball in the contract negotiation (over which Bergevin was reportedly furious, even though Subban was 100% justified in doing so, since the team had played hard-ball with him over the bridge deal. Must have been tough for Bergy to be hoist on the ptard o his own blinkered thinking and stupidity). I've said all along, this trade was about managerial ego as much as anything else. Subban wasn't a robot, he dared to have his own brand, and even to show them up on occasions like the hospital donation or the contract negotiation. That's part of what drove this totally unnecessary trade.

If you're gonna call out people for speculation, you should try not to do it yourself. Although it's hard in a case like this. As far as his contract negotiations go, I often questioned whether he was the best player in the league, because that's what he played hard ball for at the time. Top 3 pay.subban is high end, but there were times when I worried that all that money tied up for 6 years could be an issue down the road. I don't think he was ever worth 9 mill. I don't think Weber is worth 8 either. And I would rather have subban.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

If you're gonna call out people for speculation, you should try not to do it yourself. Although it's hard in a case like this. As far as his contract negotiations go, I often questioned whether he was the best player in the league, because that's what he played hard ball for at the time. Top 3 pay.subban is high end, but there were times when I worried that all that money tied up for 6 years could be an issue down the road. I don't think he was ever worth 9 mill. I don't think Weber is worth 8 either. And I would rather have subban.

It always bugs me when people focus on the salary cap number.

Anze Kopitar will make $14 million this season. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will make $13.8 million this season. Jamie Benn will make $13 million next year. Shea Weber will make $12 million this season. P.K. Subban will make $11 million this season. Ryan O'Reilly will make $11 million this season.

That's his true cost. Because teams like to find ways to circumvent the cap, some players look cheaper than they are. That doesn't change the fact they are making those numbers in the season.

Drew Doughty has three more years making $7 million on the cap ($7.45M, $7.6M, $7.65M) and then he's likely going to get more than Subban. There are a few other players like him. You know why they seem to make a lot less than their value? Because their GMs signed said players to long term deals on their first big deals while Marc Bergevin hardballed Subban into a bridge deal. That's why Karlsson will make only $7M, $7M and $7.5M for the next three seasons before probably becoming the highest paid defenceman in the league. Don't forget a lot of players signed deals where they would make next to nothing in the final years to circumvent the cap back when you could do it. Subban signed at a time when you couldn't.

That's why in Subban's final year he makes $8 million. Shea Weber? $1 million. Duncan Keith? $1.5 million. Zach Parise and Ryan Suter? $1 million.

[BCHabnut]

His cap hit is what matters. Cant go above the cap. When he held out to sign he was the 3Rd highest cap hit in the league.

[Commandant]

If you're gonna call out people for speculation, you should try not to do it yourself. Although it's hard in a case like this. As far as his contract negotiations go, I often questioned whether he was the best player in the league, because that's what he played hard ball for at the time. Top 3 pay.subban is high end, but there were times when I worried that all that money tied up for 6 years could be an issue down the road. I don't think he was ever worth 9 mill. I don't think Weber is worth 8 either. And I would rather have subban.

The fact is he is not the highest paid player in the league, nor was he when he signed that contract. Weber was actually making more money. He just has one of those old and now illegal contract structures. Weber was getting 14 million at the time.

[Commandant]

His cap hit is what matters. When he held out to sign in he was the 3Rd highest cap hit on the league.

Cap hit matters to the team.

It doesn't matter to the player, thats where real money comes into play.

He wasn't holding out to be the 3rd highest cap hit... he was holding out to get paid.

Fact is he got paid more cause forcing him into a bridge deal backfired. If you would have given him 8 years at 6 million like subban wanted, instead of forcing him into a 2.5 million 4.5 million bridge deal, you would have had him a lot cheaper. Again that mistake is on Bergevin.

[BCHabnut]

Bah.cap hit. That's what counts. The average salary over the contract. His was too high. When he signed, his cap hit was higher than crosby. That's insane. That means you can't add depth to your roster cuz some one who is not the 3rd best player in the league, has demanded the 3rd highest cap hit. With an NTC. No NTC, no trade.

[BCHabnut]

He hadnt earned 6 million over 8 until his bridge deal was done. Them he should have got Karlsson doughty Keith money if he wanted an NTC. He was never worth that cap hit plus an NTC ever. Neither is weber but hd doesn't have an ntc

[Commandant]

He hadnt earned 6 million over 8 until his bridge deal was done. Them he should have got Karlsson doughty Keith money if he wanted an NTC. He was never worth that cap hit plus an NTC ever. Neither is weber but hd doesn't have an ntc

Weber was given a ntc by the Flyers... nashville refused to honor it when they matched the deal.

Same as how Nashville refuses to honor the Montreal offered NTC.

I don't see how this argument is relevant.

Bah.cap hit. That's what counts. The average salary over the contract. His was too high. When he signed, his cap hit was higher than crosby. That's insane. That means you can't add depth to your roster cuz some one who is not the 3rd best player in the league, has demanded the 3rd highest cap hit. With an NTC. No NTC, no trade.

Cap Hits matter to the Team

Money matters to the Player.

Crosby took a lower cap hit, cause he doesn't care, as long as he gets his money.

Other team's GMs used the CBA to its full advantage to lower cap hits... ours didn't. Instead he insisted on a bridge deal because he didn't believe Subban was an elite player. Crosby and Weber didn't get lower cap hits out of the goodness of their heart, they got lower cap hits cause their GM was skilled in manipulating the rules, and still getting them paid.

Being a top 3 highest revenue team in the league, we should probably try to get a GM who is willing to use those loopholes to keep players happy and cap hits down. They can still be exploited just not to the same extent as before. We should take advantage of it.

[illWill]

Norris trophy voting since Subban came into the league:

2010-11

Weber 2nd, Subban no votes

2011-12

Weber 2nd, Subban no votes

Lockout shortened 2012-13

Subban 1st, Weber 8th

2013-14

Weber 3rd, Subban 14th

2014-15

Subban 3rd, Weber 4th but had more 1st place votes

2015-16

Weber 10th, Subban 14th

And because we all love numbers so much, I averaged out the last 6 seasons over an 82 game season to get what an average season looks like side by side.

Conclusion without intangibles or advanced stats:

Subban is a better playmaker with a slightly better +/-. Weber is more durable, a better scorer, more disciplined, a more efficient shooter, plays more minutes, hits more, blocks more, takes the puck away more and gives it away less.

Edit: only way I could figure out how to post this correctly was to make a meme lol

[Machine of Loving Grace]

When he signed, his cap hit was higher than crosby.

Sidney Crosby is obsessed with the number 87. He has never been the highest paid player in the league (like he probably should be) because he gives the Penguins a discount. His salary cap number in 2009-2010? $8.7M. His salary cap on his new deal in 2013-2014? $8.7M.

But of course, the fact Sidney's final years he'll only be making $3M per season doesn't matter to you. Only the cap hit matters to you.

[Commandant]

if you want to use poor stats, that are notoriously inaccurate like giveaways and takeaways okay great.

plus you want to us media opinion... oh those guys we didn't want to use earlier, now their norris votes matter.

oh and if you want to use 6 seasons going back to when Subban was a rookie, and Weber was already one of the NHL's best D and greatly skews the numbers great.

The fact is that Weber was elite. In fact 4 years ago, he was probably the best D in the NHL, and thats including all the analytics... so those first 2/6 seasons where he is absolutely elite and subban is still learning the game, thats not exactly a fair comparison but is measured in your numbers. I'm also not sure how what happened 6 years ago tells us who is better today.

On top of that, you've measured mainly offensive stats, and have no reliable defensive ones. Again, no one is saying that Weber's offensive game is an issue.

Its the defensive game thats the issue, and its the fact that four years ago he was elite, and has fallen off a little bit each year in all four of those years, thats the concerning thing.

[DON]

if you want to use poor stats, that are notoriously inaccurate like giveaways and takeaways okay great.

plus you want to us media opinion... oh those guys we didn't want to use earlier, now their norris votes matter.

oh and if you want to use 6 seasons going back to when Subban was a rookie, and Weber was already one of the NHL's best D and greatly skews the numbers great.

The fact is that Weber was elite. In fact 4 years ago, he was probably the best D in the NHL, and thats including all the analytics... so those first 2/6 seasons where he is absolutely elite and subban is still learning the game, thats not exactly a fair comparison but is measured in your numbers. I'm also not sure how what happened 6 years ago tells us who is better today.

On top of that, you've measured mainly offensive stats, and have no reliable defensive ones. Again, no one is saying that Weber's offensive game is an issue.

Its the defensive game thats the issue, and its the fact that four years ago he was elite, and has fallen off a little bit each year in all four of those years, thats the concerning thing.

If you say Stats one more time, just one more time...I'm gonna get infuriated!

The world is flat...god damn it!

[Commandant]

Is you say Stats one more time, just one more time...I'm gonna get infuriated!

Stats

Statistics

Statistiques

статыстыка

Statistiek

统计

estadística

Статистика

të dhëna statistikore

[BCHabnut]

Good lord! Is this real life? If this money conversation was about price I could see the argument. Cap hit does t matter? What in the f@ are you guys saying? Of course cap hit matters. On a team that makes a profit it matters way more than salary. If you would rather have Subban than Crosby Malkin Towes Kane Malkin Ovechkin or Kopitar then so be it. What does an ntc have to do with it? He held out for overpayment. He did t earn it. When his ntc started to kiCK in he got traded because he was overpaid. I love subban. He is exciting. But you can go back 2 years and see that I have been very consistent abut it. Before his bridge, he wasn't worth jack. You don't pay 6 million for his early performance. When he earned 6 or 7, he held out for 9. Overpaid. If he didnt have an ntc kicking in, I wager that mb would not have traded him.

[Commandant]

Cap hit matters to teams

Salary matters to players

A good GM can use the CBA to maximize the salary (keeping player happy) while minimizing the cap hit. Bergevin failed to do that because he wanted a bridge deal cause he didn't feel subban was worth the risk in 2013.

No one is saying they would rather have Subban than Crosby. We are saying that subban only has the cap hit he has, cause the GM didn't do a good enough job of taking advantage of the CBA rules... which other GMs are doing.

The end.

[habs rule]

Norris trophy voting since Subban came into the league:

2010-11

Weber 2nd, Subban no votes

2011-12

Weber 2nd, Subban no votes

Lockout shortened 2012-13

Subban 1st, Weber 8th

2013-14

Weber 3rd, Subban 14th

2014-15

Subban 3rd, Weber 4th but had more 1st place votes

2015-16

Weber 10th, Subban 14th

And because we all love numbers so much, I averaged out the last 6 seasons over an 82 game season to get what an average season looks like side by side.

Conclusion without intangibles or advanced stats:

Subban is a better playmaker with a slightly better +/-. Weber is more durable, a better scorer, more disciplined, a more efficient shooter, plays more minutes, hits more, blocks more, takes the puck away more and gives it away less.

Edit: only way I could figure out how to post this correctly was to make a meme lol

looks like a sideways deal to me.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Good lord! Is this real life? If this money conversation was about price I could see the argument. Cap hit does t matter? What in the f@ are you guys saying? Of course cap hit matters. On a team that makes a profit it matters way more than salary. If you would rather have Subban than Crosby Malkin Towes Kane Malkin Ovechkin or Kopitar then so be it. What does an ntc have to do with it? He held out for overpayment. He did t earn it. When his ntc started to kiCK in he got traded because he was overpaid. I love subban. He is exciting. But you can go back 2 years and see that I have been very consistent abut it. Before his bridge, he wasn't worth jack. You don't pay 6 million for his early performance. When he earned 6 or 7, he held out for 9. Overpaid. If he didnt have an ntc kicking in, I wager that mb would not have traded him.

Crosby always takes a discount

Malkin has a $9.5M cap hit, higher than Subban. It's a discount deal for Pittsburgh.

Toews and Kane have $10.5M and get paid ridiculous amounts in their first years. But that doesn't matter to you.

You already said Malkin

Ovechkin's contract kicked in in 2008-2009, and he has a cap hit of $9.539

Kopitar has a cap hit of $10M next year. Him taking home $14M this upcoming season doesn't matter to you.

So one player you named is less than Subban on cap hit?

Also, he wasn't worth jack? You don't pay a player that much for early performance? I mean, yeah, when you want to pay up the ass later on. Which is what happened.