Trade Subban traded to Nashville

[BCHabnut]

So you would have handed out 6.5 mill cap hit for 8 years for an unproven high risk defenseman with 2 years of experience and 36 points? Ok? In hindsight it was the right move, but at the time, I did not want to see that happen.

I've been looking at this whole thing, trying to come to terms with it and I'm going to speculate. IMO, if PK made 7.5 mill cap hit (what he is worth), he remains a hab. If he doesn't have an ntc, he remains a hab.

[DON]

looks like a sideways deal to me.

Turn your head into the upright position first, would help.

[BCHabnut]

Crosby always takes a discount

Malkin has a $9.5M cap hit, higher than Subban. It's a discount deal for Pittsburgh.

Toews and Kane have $10.5M and get paid ridiculous amounts in their first years. But that doesn't matter to you.

You already said Malkin

Ovechkin's contract kicked in in 2008-2009, and he has a cap hit of $9.539

Kopitar has a cap hit of $10M next year. Him taking home $14M this upcoming season doesn't matter to you.

So one player you named is less than Subban on cap hit?

Also, he wasn't worth jack? You don't pay a player that much for early performance? I mean, yeah, when you want to pay up the ass later on. Which is what happened.

Nope. Their annual money doesn't mean anything to me. Only the cap hit. I listed those players because they all have high cap hits. I can rattle off at least 10 or 12 with lower cap hits that I would rather have too. PK at 9 mill cap hit and an ntc is not worth it. Not his analytics. Not his 6 goals and 60% second assists. Not his 25% more giveaways than any other player. If he makes 7 to 8, we aren't having this conversation.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Nope. Their annual money doesn't mean anything to me. Only the cap hit. I listed those players because they all have high cap hits. I can rattle off at least 10 or 12 with lower cap gits that I would rather have too. PK at 9 mill cap hit and an ntc is not worth it. Not his analytics. Not his 6 goals and 60% second assists. Not his 25% more giveaways than any other player. If he makes 7 to 8, we aren't having this conversation.

So $1M and you feel differently. You're still giving him the majority of his money.

That stuff never makes sense to me.

"Oh I'll pay him $8 million dollars, but one more million, by god I could sign a Brian Flynn with that money and still have room to buy a new toaster!"

[BCHabnut]

We wouldn't be having the conversation because at 7 million he would probably still be a hab. It's the difference between signing radulov or Stamkos. 2 million is huge.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

We wouldn't be having the conversation because at 7 million he would probably still be a hab. It's the difference between signing radulov or Stamkos. 2 million is huge.

I disagree. I don't think Bergevin wanted him period. He just couldn't justify trading him because of how popular he was. Getting Shea Weber back and trading him after a crud season was his justification. If he could only get Ekholm back and/or the Habs made the playoffs, Subban stays. No different to Montreal getting Denis Savard for Chris Chelios to right the wrong of picking Wickenheiser.

Devante Smith-Pelly said some revealing things in a Cabbie podcast. Said the Habs are very old school. "Me being there and seeing how your best players get treated sometimes, well, why?" and "I could see his personality and the coach's personality just didn't work." Said he knew his no trade was kicking in and the rumours at the draft and wasn't surprised he got traded. Also said Subban kept the atrium secret from the players and management knew he was gone to make the announcement because he missed practice that day and told players such. Said no management being there should say everything that needs to be said.

[illWill]

if you want to use poor stats, that are notoriously inaccurate like giveaways and takeaways okay great.

Cherry picked 2 stats that you don't like but yet ignore all the other ones that matter. It was you who made the point earlier that having your best D in the penalty box is a negative. Well Subban is in the box almost twice as much as Weber is, and that's with 50% less hits.

plus you want to us media opinion... oh those guys we didn't want to use earlier, now their norris votes matter.

I could have sworn you said you were media....does your opinion matter?

oh and if you want to use 6 seasons going back to when Subban was a rookie, and Weber was already one of the NHL's best D and greatly skews the numbers great.

If we run the same comparison over a more recent sample size, the results will be fairly similar.

The fact is that Weber was elite. In fact 4 years ago, he was probably the best D in the NHL, and thats including all the analytics... so those first 2/6 seasons where he is absolutely elite and subban is still learning the game, thats not exactly a fair comparison but is measured in your numbers. I'm also not sure how what happened 6 years ago tells us who is better today.

So a mere 4 years ago Weber was probably the very best D in the NHL but it was around that time that Subban won the Norris. One has fallen off from the top ledge and one is only getting better?

On top of that, you've measured mainly offensive stats, and have no reliable defensive ones. Again, no one is saying that Weber's offensive game is an issue.

“I get a lot of questions about the Subby and Shea trade. It’s tough … (Weber’s) in the West Coast, you don’t see him as much. People don’t understand how big of a game-changer this guy is. He’s a big, strong guy … you see him, he’s big. Defensively, he’s probably if not the best in the league … Then the other side of it, he goes to All-Star Games, he scores 20 goals. … I mean, he’s going to do some damage." - Nathan Beaulieu

"We have the best goalie in the world (Carey Price) and also we've got the world's best defender (Shea Weber) this summer." - Alex Radulov

Its the defensive game thats the issue, and its the fact that four years ago he was elite, and has fallen off a little bit each year in all four of those years, thats the concerning thing.

I understand your concerns. But if someone is the very best in the world at something and they fall off a little bit each year, they are still one of the best in the world

[BCHabnut]

So if he made 2 million less, he still would have been traded over an atrium? I guess if that's true and not just speculation, then this management group definitely needs to go.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

So if he made 2 million less, he still would have been traded over an atrium? I guess if that's true and not just speculation, then this management group definitely needs to go.

I'm of the viewpoint it wasn't over the atrium, it was just MT and MB never wanted Subban. He was just too popular to move. Prior to this trade, the last time Subban was possibly in a trade talk was when Philly inquired about him and Bergevin asked if Couturier was available. Back then, Couturier was a player Bergevin could spin as an equal acquisition. Then Subban had to go and win a Norris trophy. Once he had a Norris and that Boston series under his belt, there was no touching Subban. He had to eventually sign whatever deal Subban asked for, and despite fighting it hard, he did. But he had one year to trade him. And he did. On the last day. After an awful season. For a guy who used to be one of the best defencemen in the league.

Simply put, if Carey Price was healthy in 2015-2016, Subban would still be a Hab because Bergevin would have been unable to sell the idea of trading him after a successful regular season.

[Commandant]

if you want to use poor stats, that are notoriously inaccurate like giveaways and takeaways okay great.

Cherry picked 2 stats that you don't like but yet ignore all the other ones that matter. It was you who made the point earlier that having your best D in the penalty box is a negative. Well Subban is in the box almost twice as much as Weber is, and that's with 50% less hits.

plus you want to us media opinion... oh those guys we didn't want to use earlier, now their norris votes matter.

I could have sworn you said you were media....does your opinion matter?

oh and if you want to use 6 seasons going back to when Subban was a rookie, and Weber was already one of the NHL's best D and greatly skews the numbers great.

If we run the same comparison over a more recent sample size, the results will be fairly similar.

The fact is that Weber was elite. In fact 4 years ago, he was probably the best D in the NHL, and thats including all the analytics... so those first 2/6 seasons where he is absolutely elite and subban is still learning the game, thats not exactly a fair comparison but is measured in your numbers. I'm also not sure how what happened 6 years ago tells us who is better today.

So a mere 4 years ago Weber was probably the very best D in the NHL but it was around that time that Subban won the Norris. One has fallen off from the top ledge and one is only getting better?

On top of that, you've measured mainly offensive stats, and have no reliable defensive ones. Again, no one is saying that Weber's offensive game is an issue.

“I get a lot of questions about the Subby and Shea trade. It’s tough … (Weber’s) in the West Coast, you don’t see him as much. People don’t understand how big of a game-changer this guy is. He’s a big, strong guy … you see him, he’s big. Defensively, he’s probably if not the best in the league … Then the other side of it, he goes to All-Star Games, he scores 20 goals. … I mean, he’s going to do some damage." - Nathan Beaulieu

"We have the best goalie in the world (Carey Price) and also we've got the world's best defender (Shea Weber) this summer." - Alex Radulov

Its the defensive game thats the issue, and its the fact that four years ago he was elite, and has fallen off a little bit each year in all four of those years, thats the concerning thing.

I understand your concerns. But if someone is the very best in the world at something and they fall off a little bit each year, they are still one of the best in the world

1) there is a very good reason i don't like the hits, takeaways and giveaways stats, cause they are not consistent rink to rink.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/6/fixing-the-nhls-wonky-hit-statistics

http://canucksarmy.com/2012/3/20/why-we-dont-use-blocked-shots-and-hits-as-performance-indicators

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1412.1035.pdf

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2014/07/10/rush-shots-leading-vs-trailing-home-vs-road/

https://slappersandstats.com/2016/02/13/pitfalls-to-avoid-when-evaluating-players-with-turnover-stats/

https://puckpom.wordpress.com/2015/01/31/accounting-for-rink-bias-adjusted-turnovers/

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2 the comparison over a more recent sample size would favor subban as no defenceman has more points in the last 4 years.

That said, again... Weber is close and we are talking points... Weber is good at getting points... no one disagrees with that.

=========================================================

I asked you for the defensive stats. Stats I already provided ealry and GREATLY favor subban.

You gave anecdotes.

The Anecdote of a player who hasn't played in the NHL in 4 years is worth what exactly. Did you expect Radulov to say bad things about his teammates?

Did you expect Beaulieu. Everyone is going to publically praise the trade. That's still not a defensive stat. Its an anecdote from the hockey world where players talk in cliches and don't bad mouth teammates.

============================================================

Again, I'm not sure what you are arguing. No one said Weber is bad. The comment is that he's fallen off and is now not as good as Subban. Which is the issue. Its never been about Weber being bad, its about being inferior to the player given up.

You keep twisting things that no one said... example when you brought up weber's 20 goals as an argument as to why he's not declining.... and no one said he was declining at the offensive end.

Example 2 you keep bringing up that Weber is still really good and not terrible... thats fine, no one said he's terrible, just not as good as subban.

[Meller93]

I tend to agree with BChab, the cap hit is all I care about. I'm not Geoff molson, Subban could be making 1 billion next year and 10 cents for the next 150 years , it doesn't matter, just the cap hit from a cap management perspective.

I also think 1 million is a significant difference in cap hit when looking at the big picture. Save 1 million on 5 guys and you have yourself another 5 million dollar guy.

[Commandant]

I tend to agree with BChab, the cap hit is all I care about. I'm not Geoff molson, Subban could be making 1 billion next year and 10 cents for the next 150 years , it doesn't matter, just the cap hit from a cap management perspective.

I also think 1 million is a significant difference in cap hit when looking at the big picture. Save 1 million on 5 guys and you have yourself another 5 million dollar guy.

Fans should care about the cap hit.

But the question is who do you blame for that cap hit.

A player wants to be paid fairly for his ability and i dont begrudge him that. The gm must handle the cap hits.

I blame bergevin as there would not have been such a high cap hit if he didnt insist on the bridge. He vould have gone long term with subban at age 23.. have him till age 30.... then do a back diving deal at age 30 that keeps the cap hit low.

Instead... because he didn't believe in tbe player he had to pay through the nose on the deal.

[DON]

I thought it has been shown, bridge deal was quite irrelevant or not a big deal to Subban's contract(s), pay now or save for couple years and pay more later? But, if it can be spun to reflect badly on Habs Mgmt am sure that is why it was brought up.

[Commandant]

I thought it has been shown, bridge deal was quite irrelevant or not a big deal to Subban's contract(s), pay now or save for couple years and pay more later? But, if it can be spun to reflect badly on Habs Mgmt am sure that is why it was brought up.

The point is it was a pay now or pay later situation. Our management choose to save money for two years and pay out the nose for 8.

If that's what they choose then they are the ones to blame if you dont like the 9m cap hit now.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

The point is it was a pay now or pay later situation. Our management choose to save money for two years and pay out the nose for 8.

If that's what they choose then they are the ones to blame if you dont like the 9m cap hit now.

Habs29 called it at the time. He correctly identified Subban as a stud who should be given a long-term deal before his value skyrocketed. Management, though, were clearly among the 'Subban skeptics' (a cluster of people who have always been leery of Subban, because he's not a robot, and because their one-size-fits-all approach to the game has no room for the expressive, flashy player). He proved them wrong and he got paid accordingly. The shame of it is that the management group allowed its prejudices (and I don't mean racial, so much as a bias against the kind of player Subban is) to distort their evaluation of Subban. The results are as we see them.

[Davehab]

Guys can we please stop talking about this now.

can we all just admit that it was a mistake to trade PK, but we got a pretty good player back in Weber. THE END

[Meller93]

And I agree, I too was calling for a long term deal before the bridge. I'm sure I could find it somewhere. The thing is I thought it was damn obvious that Subban was a stud, and it baffles me to this day why there is debate as to just how effective he is.

[BCHabnut]

Funny how Price did the same thing with the bridge deal and signed a much more friendly 6.5 long term deal. Wasn't it the year before?

[JoeLassister]

Funny how Price did the same thing with the bridge deal and signed a much more friendly 6.5 long term deal. Wasn't it the year before?

That was the market for a potential future elite goaltender who had not proven as much as Subban at that time.

[BCHabnut]

I guess I will stop. Haha. I am in the minority in thinking that Subban was over paid.

[Commandant]

Guys can we please stop talking about this now.

can we all just admit that it was a mistake to trade PK, but we got a pretty good player back in Weber. THE END

No one is forcing you to open this thread and read it.

Just saying.

Funny how Price did the same thing with the bridge deal and signed a much more friendly 6.5 long term deal. Wasn't it the year before?

Price didn't win a Vezina while on his bridge deal.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

No one is forcing you to open this thread and read it.

Just saying.

That's true...but Dave's take that "it was a mistake to trade PK, but we got a pretty good player back in Weber," is, in fact, one almost all of us could probably agree on. He should run for office with that ability to reconcile opposing views!

[DON]

The point is it was a pay now or pay later situation. Our management choose to save money for two years and pay out the nose for 8.

If that's what they choose then they are the ones to blame if you dont like the 9m cap hit now.

Could actually care less what Nashville is paying its players.

But my point is, if you had skipped on bridge deal, you would of paid quite similar in long run. But, I am basing on vague recollection of debate from several years ago and those who know much more about salary stuff than I.

But "pay through the nose" rhetoric is 100% directly aimed at making Habs Mgmt look bad, that is your only point it seems (as Subban dosent even play for Montreal anymore) and if it didn't reflect badly, it would likely become one of your irrelevant intangibles and not worthy debating.

[DON]

Price didn't win a Vezina while on his bridge deal.

So winning a trophy should of been in Bergevin's crystal ball and factored into negotiations with Subban but not Price? Odd take, but par for this thread. So next season should we pull for Carey (Pacioretty the year after that) to suck so wont have to pay through the nose, interesting logic? Too bad good play couldn't be an intangible eh.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

So winning a trophy should of been in Bergevin's crystal ball and factored into negotiations with Subban but not Price? Odd take, but par for this thread. So next season should we pull for Carey (Pacioretty the year after that) to suck so wont have to pay through the nose, interesting logic? Too bad good play couldn't be an intangible eh.

The point is that MB misidentified what he had in Subban - he had a beast, but treated him as a question mark - and therefore forced himself into the position where he had to award him that huge contract. If the contract is a consideration the trade, or used as justification for it - which is odd on the face of it, since Weber's deal is arguably worse - then the trade is a case of the early mistake compounding itself.