Trade Subban traded to Nashville

[Lovett's Magnatones]

Imagine if there was no compulsory buyout and Gomez had eight more years of contract left.

That's the scenario in your mind.

Exactly.

[DON]

The reliability of the Giveaway stat and the bell centre.

Giveaways at home.

Subban - 67

markov - 69

Emelin - 51

Petry - 39

Total = 226

Giveaways on the road

Subban 39

Markov 24

Emelin 24

Petry 11

= 98

Do you guys really think this is a reliable stat that is consistent rink to rink, when the top 4 Habs have more than double the giveaways at home vs on the road?

Real question should be, why are they so darn sloppy at home?

[dlbalr]

Real question should be, why are they so darn sloppy at home?

It's a good question - why are those stat guys at the Bell Centre so sloppy? They've always been very liberal in their application of stats like that - there was a time a few years ago that the Habs were the most physical team in the league in terms of hits (and I don't think it was that close despite being near the bottom in road hits).

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I honestly think Nashville will have a hard time with all the big hard playing forwards in there conference now. It's going to be hard for them to stop the cycling none of their D are imposing guys.

Depends. You can defend very well in your own zone with mobility, puck-movement and speed. That's how Pittsburgh did it - this ain't the era of Craig Ludwig any more.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

The reliability of the Giveaway stat and the bell centre.

Giveaways at home.

Subban - 67

markov - 69

Emelin - 51

Petry - 39

Total = 226

Giveaways on the road

Subban 39

Markov 24

Emelin 24

Petry 11

= 98

Do you guys really think this is a reliable stat that is consistent rink to rink, when the top 4 Habs have more than double the giveaways at home vs on the road?

The point is getting lost in this post because all you're trying to do is prove that the giveaway stat is meaningless. It does nothing to address the fact that Subban is the worst in the league when it comes to this meaningless stat. If you had to ask me what I thought Subban's weakness was, I would have to mention his giveaways as being right up there. The numbers just solidly that thought.

If these giveaway numbers are meaningless then I guess we may as well throw out that Subban touches the puck so much more than Weber nonsense because I'm sure the Bell Center statisticians love when Subban touches the puck so much that they count each back and forth stick handle as a touch. From what I hear.

I think people are only perceived as bashing Subban in this thread because some act as though he has no deficiencies. I agree that the +/- stat and giveaway stats can be misleading. That doesn't mean they can never be used as a serious argument.

Subban played 3/4 of the season and still led the league in giveaways. That mostly has nothing to do with the Bell Center stat guys and more to do with Subban himself.

[Scott462]

Depends. You can defend very well in your own zone with mobility, puck-movement and speed. That's how Pittsburgh did it - this ain't the era of Craig Ludwig any more.

No you are right it's not that era anymore.

But you still need to play physical especially against IMO the most physical conference in the NHL. You need to stop teams cycling on you by winning puck battles and Weber was the best on their team for that. Josi was the worst. I have heard a lot of talk by Pred fans that Weber had to cover for Josi all the time and had to do a lot of the dirty work in his own end, which is a big thing they are worried about.

[Meller93]

The point is getting lost in this post because all you're trying to do is prove that the giveaway stat is meaningless. It does nothing to address the fact that Subban is the worst in the league when it comes to this meaningless stat. If you had to ask me what I thought Subban's weakness was, I would have to mention his giveaways as being right up there. The numbers just solidly that thought.

If these giveaway numbers are meaningless then I guess we may as well throw out that Subban touches the puck so much more than Weber nonsense because I'm sure the Bell Center statisticians love when Subban touches the puck so much that they count each back and forth stick handle as a touch. From what I hear.

I think people are only perceived as bashing Subban in this thread because some act as though he has no deficiencies. I agree that the +/- stat and giveaway stats can be misleading. That doesn't mean they can never be used as a serious argument.

Subban played 3/4 of the season and still led the league in giveaways. That mostly has nothing to do with the Bell Center stat guys and more to do with Subban himself.

What Commandant laid out isn't even solely regarding Subban. There isn't some Subban bias here, it's the habs top 4. So I have to disagree that giveaways is even a serious argument against Subban. As soon as you see that habs Defenceman have a CLEAR disadvantage for giveaway counts (there's no arguing this. Just look at Commandants post) then you realize that Subban is exactly the same as every other elite defenseman for giveaways. There is no argument for Subban being especially bad at giveaways.

[Commandant]

The point is getting lost in this post because all you're trying to do is prove that the giveaway stat is meaningless. It does nothing to address the fact that Subban is the worst in the league when it comes to this meaningless stat. If you had to ask me what I thought Subban's weakness was, I would have to mention his giveaways as being right up there. The numbers just solidly that thought.

If these giveaway numbers are meaningless then I guess we may as well throw out that Subban touches the puck so much more than Weber nonsense because I'm sure the Bell Center statisticians love when Subban touches the puck so much that they count each back and forth stick handle as a touch. From what I hear.

I think people are only perceived as bashing Subban in this thread because some act as though he has no deficiencies. I agree that the +/- stat and giveaway stats can be misleading. That doesn't mean they can never be used as a serious argument.

Subban played 3/4 of the season and still led the league in giveaways. That mostly has nothing to do with the Bell Center stat guys and more to do with Subban himself.

1) re the touches of the puck aren't tracked by the bell centre staff... they are tracked by a private company doing hockey analytics... and they are relatively consistent at home and on the road... the variations are completely what we would expect because no two games are going to be identical... but the variation is small... not more than double on the road as at home.

2) Yes the issue is entirely the bell centre stat guys... the bell centre awards double the giveaways every single game than league average. The Habs get credited with more giveaways than the rest of the league 41 times a year. The other teams get it 1, 2 and at most 3 regular season games. That adds up. Subban plays the most minutes on the team, so of course he leads the league.

Who wants to bet that Weber's giveaways go way up this year, and Subban's go way down. I think that will happen, And you know what, neither of them will have changed a single thing about how they play the game. It will be entirely due to the fact that Weber plays in the Bell Centre where giveaways are awarded at a far higher rate by the stats guys.

Its not just subban, its the entire defence... and its been seen repeatedly for a decade. Markov is always amongst the league leaders. Hamrlik's giveaway numbers spiked in the years he played here vs elsewhere, so did Spacek, Josh Gorges numbers are down in terms of giveaways/game in Buffalo. It repeats over and over for every defencemen who has played on Montreal. Thats not coincidence. That's not on the player, or the system cause it spikes only in home games, not on the road. Thats 100% the statistician.

The only value here is comparing him to his teammates (and given the extra minutes and touches of the puck, Subban is really no riskier)... You can't possibly use the numbers to compare against other teams in the league. Thats meaningless since they don't get tracked at the same rate 41 times a year. Of course he leads the league, he plays with the most generous stat counter in the game.

[DON]

Actually not just Bell stat guys, eye test also says Subban coughs up puck often (we all know he will look at and blame his skates for falling down) and not just that he dogs it when backchecking, not that he would be quick enough to get back but, give an effort to make up for your mistake would seem appropriate.

[Commandant]

If you watch every team in the league as closely as you watch the habs, you'd see that every elite defencemen coughs it up.

Again, sportlogiq who do those stats and do them consistently (and don't just take the ones on NHL.com) had a 0.02% difference in giveaways per time touching the puck between P.K. and Weber. And almost all the elite defencemen in the league are similar.

You only think Subban is doing it more because you're a Habs fan, and so you not only watch the team more, but you are also emotionally invested so when it happens it makes a bigger impact in your memory than when a defenceman on a team you don't care about coughs it up.

Thats the great thing about the stats, they have no favorite team, they show you things without the internal confirmation bias (and we all have confirmation bias when we watch our favorite team, every single one of us).

[dlbalr]

Actually not just Bell stat guys, eye test also says Subban coughs up puck often (we all know he will look at and blame his skates for falling down) and not just that he dogs it when backchecking, not that he would be quick enough to get back but, give an effort to make up for your mistake would seem appropriate.

I've been quite critical of Subban in the past for his disinterest in back checking at times but there's no denying the Bell Centre stats people exaggerate his giveaway stats. Double his away giveaways (from more neutral statisticians) and instead of being first in the league in that category, he's tied for 16th. That's still a lot but he also handled the puck more than any other Montreal d-man so that was to be expected to some degree. Is he the worst in the league at turning the puck over? The official stat may say so (thanks to the Bell Centre stats people) but he's probably not once you take the bias away.

[DON]

If you watch every team in the league as closely as you watch the habs, you'd see that every elite defencemen coughs it up.

Again, sportlogiq who do those stats and do them consistently (and don't just take the ones on NHL.com) had a 0.02% difference in giveaways per time touching the puck between P.K. and Weber. And almost all the elite defencemen in the league are similar.

You only think Subban is doing it more because you're a Habs fan, and so you not only watch the team more, but you are also emotionally invested so when it happens it makes a bigger impact in your memory than when a defenceman on a team you don't care about coughs it up.

Thats the great thing about the stats, they have no favorite team, they show you things without the internal confirmation bias (and we all have confirmation bias when we watch our favorite team, every single one of us).

"the stats" hmmm, but only those you agree with and support your argument. "If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." a.e. always comes to mind when someone is keeps saying this stat is more important than those omitted.

[Commandant]

"the stats" hmmm, but only those you agree with and support your argument. "If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." a.e. always comes to mind when someone is keeps saying this stat is more important than those omitted.

Ok, i just made up a stat, its called superawesomeness.... i'm not gonna explain it at all, other than to say being higher is good..

Subban is a 1205904

Weber is a 970610

Markov is a 90120

etc... etc...

Now, we have to use this stat... and if you don't use my completely arbitrary stat that is meaningless, it means that you are saying other stats are more important, and this one is omitted cause it doesn't support your argument.

Is that what we should do? Should we take the absurdity up a notch? NO cause the stat is meaningles. No matter what the number says, there is no context, or the context is flawed. See its the same thing with giveaways. There are very good reasons to omit the giveaway stat... because its not accurate. That is what makes it meaningless and omitted, not because it supports or doesn't support the argument, but because the stat is demonstrably not accurate.

This isn't a hard concept, but you just want to scream bias for no reason, cause you have no other way to dispute completely logical points.

[DON]

Ok, i just made up a stat, its called superawesomeness.... i'm not gonna explain it at all, other than to say being higher is good..

Subban is a 1205904

Weber is a 970610

Markov is a 90120

etc... etc...

Now, we have to use this stat... and if you don't use my completely arbitrary stat that is meaningless, it means that you are saying other stats are more important, and this one is omitted cause it doesn't support your argument.

Is that what we should do? Should we take the absurdity up a notch? NO cause the stat is meaningles. No matter what the number says, there is no context, or the context is flawed. See its the same thing with giveaways. There are very good reasons to omit the giveaway stat... because its not accurate. That is what makes it meaningless and omitted, not because it supports or doesn't support the argument, but because the stat is demonstrably not accurate.

This isn't a hard concept, but you just want to scream bias for no reason, cause you have no other way to dispute completely logical points.

Are you a Biostatistician in your spare time, on top of everything else?

Scream bias, not so much, question its influence for sure.

[Commandant]

you are saying i'm biased though, cause i choose which stats to regard and what ones i say are meaningless.

the thing is though, I have always maintained that giveaways when comparing team to team are a useless stat... for the reasons i've posted about. This isn't something new based on the subban trade. This is a long running issue with the stat, that I had long before the trade.

[DON]

I know, you jumped to Subban's defense and voiced same opinion of it, seems long ago when I brought it up before (on a different website). I wont pester you anymore about it.

Anyways, in another 5 weeks we shall see how this trade actually starts to play out.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

What Commandant laid out isn't even solely regarding Subban. There isn't some Subban bias here, it's the habs top 4. So I have to disagree that giveaways is even a serious argument against Subban. As soon as you see that habs Defenceman have a CLEAR disadvantage for giveaway counts (there's no arguing this. Just look at Commandants post) then you realize that Subban is exactly the same as every other elite defenseman for giveaways. There is no argument for Subban being especially bad at giveaways.

Seriously, I understand that I watch the Habs more than any other team even though I live in Long Beach and watch the Ducks and Kings quite a bit as well, but there is no other defenseman in the league who does a 360 spin-o-rama in between the hash marks in the defensive zone as the last man back more than twice in a a calendar season. Other than PK Subban. Sometimes he gives it away in those situations whereas any hockey player's 101 instinct is "I'm not losing it on this part of the ice."

There are elite players in every sport who either showboat or get away with plays that your average players cannot even begin to attempt. If you watch the Habs, there is definitely a case to be made about PK Subban and his turnovers. It's not only the amount of turnovers, it's the situations. Last man at the offensive blue line, last man in the d zone, blind behind the back pass through the middle of the ice in the d zone.

I can't even believe we're discussing this because so what? It's one of his deficiencies. The same thing I'm complaining about is the same reason people love him because he does also succeed with some of those plays that no other player could dream of attempting. It doesn't change the fact that he looks nominee clever than Lars Eller did when he had his head down or when he had his stick between a player's legs in the offensive zone when Subban does give it away in those situations.

I've asked this before but to all those defending his giveaway stats... Since he's not bad at giveaways, please enlighten me. Where DO Subban's weaknesses lie? What are they?

[illWill]

Seriously, I understand that I watch the Habs more than any other team even though I live in Long Beach and watch the Ducks and Kings quite a bit as well, but there is no other defenseman in the league who does a 360 spin-o-rama in between the hash marks in the defensive zone as the last man back more than twice in a a calendar season. Other than PK Subban. Sometimes he gives it away in those situations whereas any hockey player's 101 instinct is "I'm not losing it on this part of the ice."

There are elite players in every sport who either showboat or get away with plays that your average players cannot even begin to attempt. If you watch the Habs, there is definitely a case to be made about PK Subban and his turnovers. It's not only the amount of turnovers, it's the situations. Last man at the offensive blue line, last man in the d zone, blind behind the back pass through the middle of the ice in the d zone.

Great point and I don't recall it being brought up as of yet. Whether the giveaway stat is inconsistent or not, the fact of the matter is that Subban's giveaways seem to be more detrimental than most, if not all. Hypothetically a player could have the least amount of giveaways in the league, but the other team could score on everyone of them. Is there a stat for percentage of giveaways that lead to goals? Let me guess, the percentage is so minuscule that it doesn't matter

[Commandant]

Seriously, I understand that I watch the Habs more than any other team even though I live in Long Beach and watch the Ducks and Kings quite a bit as well, but there is no other defenseman in the league who does a 360 spin-o-rama in between the hash marks in the defensive zone as the last man back more than twice in a a calendar season. Other than PK Subban. Sometimes he gives it away in those situations whereas any hockey player's 101 instinct is "I'm not losing it on this part of the ice."

There are elite players in every sport who either showboat or get away with plays that your average players cannot even begin to attempt. If you watch the Habs, there is definitely a case to be made about PK Subban and his turnovers. It's not only the amount of turnovers, it's the situations. Last man at the offensive blue line, last man in the d zone, blind behind the back pass through the middle of the ice in the d zone.

I can't even believe we're discussing this because so what? It's one of his deficiencies. The same thing I'm complaining about is the same reason people love him because he does also succeed with some of those plays that no other player could dream of attempting. It doesn't change the fact that he looks nominee clever than Lars Eller did when he had his head down or when he had his stick between a player's legs in the offensive zone when Subban does give it away in those situations.

I've asked this before but to all those defending his giveaway stats... Since he's not bad at giveaways, please enlighten me. Where DO Subban's weaknesses lie? What are they?

Would you agree a player is making lots of bad giveaways in bad areas that these would lead to lots of scoring chances for the other team?

Would you agree that giving up a scoring chance when you are on the ice is really the key thing to avoid as a defenceman?

If those are the case, then why is this an issue when Subban gives up less scoring chances than Weber?

[Commandant]

Great point and I don't recall it being brought up as of yet. Whether the giveaway stat is inconsistent or not, the fact of the matter is that Subban's giveaways seem to be more detrimental than most, if not all. Hypothetically a player could have the least amount of giveaways in the league, but the other team could score on everyone of them. Is there a stat for percentage of giveaways that lead to goals? Let me guess, the percentage is so minuscule that it doesn't matter

Better question.... Why does it matter if its a giveaway that leads to the scoring chance/goal, or if its losing races to loose pucks, or if its being beaten one on one off the rush, or its a bad pinch, or if its one of the other errors a defenceman could make?

If a guy didn't make many giveaways, but did other things wrong, does that make him a better defenceman than Subban?

I'm just trying to figure out why we are fixated on this one aspect of playing defence instead of looking at the bigger picture of total scoring chances. An area Subban is demonstrably superior.

Even if it were true that he has more costly giveaways (which the numbers don't appear to be so at any meaningful level, but I digress)... even if it were true, does it matter if the other D man gives up more scoring chances in other ways.

I know, you jumped to Subban's defense and voiced same opinion of it, seems long ago when I brought it up before (on a different website). I wont pester you anymore about it.

Anyways, in another 5 weeks we shall see how this trade actually starts to play out.

I've had this opinion before Subban was even on the team.

[DON]

I've asked this before but to all those defending his giveaway stats... Since he's not bad at giveaways, please enlighten me. Where DO Subban's weaknesses lie? What are they?

Well, cant hit broadside of barn with a puck (Pacioretty will vouch for that), very timid to take a hit to make a play for teammate, will cough up puck to avoid being hit, he is pussycat of a d-man (or say Kovalev-tough), likely confuses his own forwards often with his ad-lib rushes and Savardian spinoramas, he said it isnt his job to score (and he played that part well last year), for starters.

[habs rule]

Well, cant hit broadside of barn with a puck (Pacioretty will vouch for that), very timid to take a hit to make a play for teammate, will cough up puck to avoid being hit, he is pussycat of a d-man (or say Kovalev-tough), likely confuses his own forwards often with his ad-lib rushes and Savardian spinoramas, he said it isnt his job to score (and he played that part well last year), for starters.

Why are you the pot stirrer so down on Suban did he piss you off in another life time? None of what you say is valid and can be disputed. He was told by the coaching staff not to hit people, he loves to do it. You really make no sense. Go back and read your own posts when you liked him, totally different story. I know you are mangement solid but man you are becoming blind from the kool aid. Don you are losing credibility just my opinion.

[BCHabnut]

Nope. I like it. It's like a break up. Feels good to hate on him. Smashville baby! Points at sky in lame pose.

[Link67]

I haven't heard anyone (other than Price and Bergevin) expressly say that Weber is better than Subban either.

Thats the point.

NO EXISTING GMS have said that despite what Link wants you to believe. GMs never comment on other teams trades in that way. It just doesn't happen.

So this supposed long list that said Weber was better, none of them ever said that. They have all just said Weber is a really good player... which is something every one here says.

Of course you are right, they just sat at a big table, looking at eachother blankly. They then began speaking in juicy fruit comercial language and squeaked farts out from under there armpits for 3 weeks while they figured out their roster. Not a word was spoken about PK or anyone because commandant didn't see it in writing.

Give me a god damn break those men were in there picking PKs game apart, Doughty's, Weber's, all of them. And in the end whether you like it or not they chose Weber well before they would have chose PK. And at the end of the day all i'm saying is if I stand back and look at the situation I value they're opinion more than yours in this matter.

They think Weber is the better player for their team so I believe Weber will be the better player for ours.

[dlbalr]

Why are you the pot stirrer so down on Suban did he piss you off in another life time? None of what you say is valid and can be disputed.

It's fair to say he misses the net a lot. He hit the net with only 46.9% of his shot attempts last season so he missed more than he hit. That number was also an improvement on 2014-15 where he was just at 44.4%. Also to be fair, most defencemen miss more than they hit.

(By comparison, Weber comes in at 49.7% and 51.2% the last two seasons.)