Annual Habs Top Shelf Prospect Report

[Commandant]

I've given my reasons why I think Lernout deserves to be ranked ahead of Scherbak, no one has offered reasons why he shouldn't. Other than the fact that Scherbak was drafted higher a couple years ago. But looking over the history of Canadiens drafts, the first player they took has turned out to be the best less than half the time, and most of those cases were when the first pick was high in the draft.

The reasons you have given... most of them have been shown to be false.

You also say no one has given reasons... you seem to be ignoring them.

I've given plenty of reasons... there is a whole 4000 word article of reasons.

Brian has given plenty of reasons.

Here is the thing... Brian and I... we actually watch the Ice Caps, and other junior leagues. We both have followed prospects closely and for a long time... so if you want to ignore those reasons go ahead. You've openly admitted you didn't watch much AHL.

So why are you arguing based on reasons given for a player you've barely seen play?

Do you enjoy digging the hole deeper?

[Robert Ethan]

So you guys are pro scouts I take it? Or comfortably well off retired folk who can afford the hobby of traveling around the country on your own dime to watch these players on an ongoing basis. If that's the case I suppose I should bow to your superior judgement.

[BCHabnut]

The reason Brian gave was sound. Projections. Lernout projects to be a #5 or #6 defenseman. Scherbak projects to be top six forward. Nobody is saying they don't like Lernout. He may even have a heck of a development year and become the team's top defensive prospect. But it is very unlikey. So at this time the analysis is based on projections. I don't watch AHL either, so I have no opinion from that standpoint. Only what I read. Scherbak had an injury year in his first AHL season. It's pretty much a mulligan at this point and should not be judged too harshly IMO. Sort of like Petry's season last year. You could tell he was playing hurt and was not performing.

[Commandant]

So you guys are pro scouts I take it? Or comfortably well off retired folk who can afford the hobby of traveling around the country on your own dime to watch these players on an ongoing basis. If that's the case I suppose I should bow to your superior judgement.

You admitted you don't even watch many games.....

So regardless if we are pro scouts or not, the very fact that we see these kids play, and you don't.... makes the information we have superior.

This shouldn't be a hard concept.

Thats without getting into the fact that I have media credentials with the NHL, AHL, and OHL; and sit in the same press boxes as the scouts and hear them talk.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

I've given my reasons why I think Lernout deserves to be ranked ahead of Scherbak, no one has offered reasons why he shouldn't. Other than the fact that Scherbak was drafted higher a couple years ago. But looking over the history of Canadiens drafts, the first player they took has turned out to be the best less than half the time, and most of those cases were when the first pick was high in the draft.

Upside, statistics, the eye test...

[Robert Ethan]

"Upside" would favor Lernout, I'd say. He has made more significant strides in each of the seasons since he and Scherbak were drafted, he is bigger and larger players tend to reach their peak later, plus he is a defenseman who tend to take longer to mature than forwards. Statistics are difficult to compare between the two positions, but last season Brett played nearly a full season with a cumulative -4 while often playing defensive zone situations. Sherbak was -26 in two thirds of the time and he certainly wasn't playing a checking role. The "eye test" is notoriously unreliable due to bias and preconception. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

[DON]

You admitted you don't even watch many games.....

So regardless if we are pro scouts or not, the very fact that we see these kids play, and you don't.... makes the information we have superior.

This shouldn't be a hard concept.

Thats without getting into the fact that I have media credentials with the NHL, AHL, and OHL; and sit in the same press boxes as the scouts and hear them talk.

Just curious, are their stipulations around press box stuff, do you have to sign a waiver to never reveal what you might hear 'off the record'?

[DON]

"Upside" would favor Lernout, I'd say. He has made more significant strides in each of the seasons since he and Scherbak were drafted, he is bigger and larger players tend to reach their peak later, plus he is a defenseman who tend to take longer to mature than forwards. Statistics are difficult to compare between the two positions, but last season Brett played nearly a full season with a cumulative -4 while often playing defensive zone situations. Sherbak was -26 in two thirds of the time and he certainly wasn't playing a checking role. The "eye test" is notoriously unreliable due to bias and preconception. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Why would you consider Lernout to have more upside than Scherbak? You may want to view the junior highlight compilations of the two on youtube and IceCap game highlights from last year.

Lernout is seen as topping out at maybe a #5 d-man by most and Scherbak likely is a top six scoring forward, or bust/off to the KHL. He was -26 on the IceCaps last year, so his defensive game is a bit shoddy for sure, but he had a good stretches of games for offense http://habsprospects.com/scherbak.html .

Safe to say is quite important year for both to prove they can be impact players in the AHL first off.

[Commandant]

Just curious, are their stipulations around press box stuff, do you have to sign a waiver to never reveal what you might hear 'off the record'?

No waivers.

But there is a level of professionalism that if you start reporting stuff you hear and who said it, you won't be asked back.

[Commandant]

Connor Crisp has 7 career AHL points.

If he scores 15 points next year in 70 games does that mean he doubled his production?

Hudon had 53 points last year

If he scores 70 next year does that mean that Crisp is progressing faster and now has more upside... cause you know he didn't double his production like Crisp did?

See how silly the arguments being made for Lernout and his upside are? Just cause he went from almost never scoring pre draft to having one good season does not mean he suddenly has more upside than Scherbak whose production was about the same, but was 82 points in his final year of junior.

Just cause Lernout went from 22 to 42... doesn't mean he suddenly had more upside than the guy who went from 78 to 82 points. (and yes I realize its defenceman vs forward), but just saying you can't judge this by how many more points he's getting over previous years.

And thats ignoring the fact that Scherbak went from a team with a wide open system when he scored 78, to Kevin Constantine's heavy defensive system when he scored 82, and upped his numbers despite playing in the way less offensive system.

[Link67]

are we really arguing about this? Lernout is a depth defenseman at any point for us AT BEST, simple as that. Comparing him to guys like Hudon, McCaron, or Lehkonen, who actually have a real chance at extended NHL careers, is head shake worthy honestly.

[Commandant]

are we really arguing about this? Lernout is a depth defenseman at any point for us AT BEST, simple as that. Comparing him to guys like Hudon, McCaron, or Lehkonen, who actually have a real chance at extended NHL careers, is head shake worthy honestly.

But, but its the opinion of a guy who doesn't watch prospects man.

He's apparently big and drops the gloves (or so has the guy who never watches has been told) so that must mean he's great.

[Robert Ethan]

I'd bet my house (if I had one) that Lernout plays more NHL games than Hudon or Lekhonen in his career. Although that bet would take some time to settle. In terms of progression, at the time of the draft Sherbak was well ahead of Lernout, obviously, drafted much higher, rated higher by all scouts. One year later I think they're seasons were relatively even. Sherbak, as an offensive forward scored twice as many points as Lernout the shutdown defenseman. That is what you would expect, in terms of offense. But Brett was averaging just under 30 minutes per game for S.C. that year, so he was just as valuable to his team as Scherbak in Everett. Last year in S.J. I think Lernout had the better overall season, he established himself as a trustworthy defensive presence in the AHL at barely 20 years old. Once again Scherbak had double the point total, but I'd bet Sylvain Lebefvre regarded Brett as a more valuable component of his team.

I see those trends continuing, although Lernout's knee injury and rehab will throw a hiccup into his progression this coming season.

Edited August 10, 2016 by ethan raphael

[Commandant]

I'd take that bet, but as despicable as you are, i'd still feel guilty about making you homeless.

[nihilz]

Sooooooooooo.. Lehkonen weighing in at 185lbs, eh?!

p.s. we'll be lucky if Lernout is eventually an upgrade on Pateryn.

[Robert Ethan]

The last 10 games Lernout played in the AHL prior to his callup he scored 5 points and was +4, so he earned the promotion. Extrapolated over a season that's 40 points and +30 or so.

[Commandant]

Sooooooooooo.. Lehkonen weighing in at 185lbs, eh?!

p.s. we'll be lucky if Lernout is eventually an upgrade on Pateryn.

Other than say Carr and Ghetto (who are on 1 way deals)... the guys with the best chance to crack the squad out of camp, and be put in an offensive role, are Lehkonen and Hudon. They are just more advanced at his current age than Reway, Scherbak, McCarron, DLR, and the rest are. (McCarron and DLR are good defensively, but their offense isn't there).

[Commandant]

The last 10 games Lernout played in the AHL prior to his callup he scored 5 points and was +4, so he earned the promotion. Extrapolated over a season that's 40 points and +30 or so.

The arguments just sink lower and lower, we are extrapolating 10 game sample sizes to full seasons now....

He didn't earn shit... He was the 15th defenceman recalled on an emergency basis due to injuries.

Get that through your skull.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

The arguments just sink lower and lower, we are extrapolating 10 game sample sizes to full seasons now....

He didn't earn shit... He was the 15th defenceman recalled on an emergency basis due to injuries.

Get that through your skull.

To be fair he's already expressed his hatred for nerds and numbers so he's likely just showing he doesn't know how to craft a good argument using statistics to show how dumb they are. Fits the gimmick. He's just being a fake geek.

[Robert Ethan]

Someone brought up statistics, Sherbak had the same # of points over that stretch and was -4. So, yeah, at the end of March of last year I'd say Lernout was definitely "ahead" of Scherbak if you want to use stats.

[Commandant]

To be fair he's already expressed his hatred for nerds and numbers so he's likely just showing he doesn't know how to craft a good argument using statistics to show how dumb they are. Fits the gimmick. He's just being a fake geek.

Tim Bozon scored the game winning goal in the very last ice caps game of the year. Eddie Pasquale was the 1st star of the game.

Clearly those were the two best players at the end of the season for the ice caps.... Which one do you think is the Habs best prospect?

[BCHabnut]

This is awesome.

[Guest Stogey24]

Someone brought up statistics, Sherbak had the same # of points over that stretch and was -4. So, yeah, at the end of March of last year I'd say Lernout was definitely "ahead" of Scherbak if you want to use stats.

Oh my. Just let it go man.

[DON]

No waivers.

But there is a level of professionalism that if you start reporting stuff you hear and who said it, you won't be asked back.

Cool, thanks.

[nihilz]

Lernout's ppg & possession numbers in his last 4 games were better than F.L.Subban's last 4 AHL games. Thus Lernout will sign a $10MAAV 8yr extension next week. His new agent Sprague Cleghorn just released the details via carrier pigeon.