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The Chicoutimi Cucumber

Talent pipeline

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One of the disturbing undercurrents in the Bergevin era is the sense that the Habs are falling well short in drafting and development, which are so important in the cap era. We have an aging core with no obvious higher-end successors coming down the pipeline.

 

Is this accurate? If so, what should be done? Has Timmins had his day? Is the problem less drafting than development?

 

Discuss ;)

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In my mind it's both.  The only clear home runs they PROBABLY hit in the first round in MB's tenure are last year and galchenyuk.  That's a scouting issue.

 

What I don't know is whether going after players like  mccarron in the first round is because of the size fetish is that MB or Timmons had. He doesn't fit the Timmons profile - speed and skill, so I me be biased because I've hated MB since his first three major decisions as GM - 1) hiring Le genius 2) not exactly ending Subban for 10 or 12 years when they could have prior to the lockout 3) bridge deal to Subban after the lockout.

 

There have been other Timmons draft picks that SHOULD have been good - Beaulieu, Shreback.  IMO that is a development issue.

 

it seems that unless a player really doesn't really need much time in the AHL Gallagher, lekhonan and galchenyuk), none of the habs draftees have progressed that well.  IMO that is on MB's other coaching hire in the AHL.  Another one of his bum buddies, who has done squat to develop players.

 

in the NHL, the habs had therrian who probably would have benched Gretzky for trying to score empty net goals if he had Gretzky as an 18 year old.  Unless a player was confident and skilled himself, he could not succeed under le genius.  Even if he was, dumb and dumber would try and break them - see Subban. 

 

To make matters worse, they have another crony that grew up with MB - daigneult- as an assistant coach.

 

Galchenyuk was a gift at #3, but they have messed him up by flipping him up, down, left, right and centre in the lineup. 

 

So so with the incompetent coaching staff the habs hired in both the NHL and AHL, it's hard to judge Timmons.  He did draft McDonough, maxpac and Subban in one friggin draft.  Hudon seems like a highly skilled player, who has not been given a fair shake. Schrebak seemed like a steal.

 

i think I'd start off with cleaning house with AHL coaching staff and Daigneult before firing Timmons.

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McCarron seems in retrospect to have been a signal of where Bergevin is going: big, strong, slow, and lacking any offensive talent whatsoever.

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Lefebvre has coached the AHL team for what 4 years now? 5?

 

the only prospects developped in that time who are full-time NHLers..... Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Lehkonen, Beaulieu. 

 

Gallagher spent less than half a season with Lefebvre. 

Galchenyuk and Lehknonen never played under Lefebvre. 

Beaulieu had a good couple years with him. 

Pateryn had a couple years with him. 


Thats a pretty damning list.  Three of the five guys who developped into NHLers spent almost no time with him.  The fourth guy is not near what people hoped of him (though some of that is on development post-call up, I grant that). Still 1 guy in five years?  Pateryn i think you have to consider a success given a fifth rounder who developped into an NHLer, I don't know how much more we could ask for. McCarron might make a third guy under him, and he's not exactly lighting the world on fire either. 

Edit: Add Andrighetto, thanks Huzer.

 

So if we really stretch, we get 4 prospects developped in 5 years, and none of them are worth writing home about (Pateryn, Andrighetto, McCarron, Beaulieu)­. 

 

Now, consider that with Lever, Boucher, Cunneyworth, Timmins' picks were developing into NHLers at a high rate, and I know who I'd be looking to change. 

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So it sounds like our best hope for Sergachev (and Juulsen) is that he avoids the AHL.

 

The prospect pool has been my biggest fear the past few years. I'll admit I don't follow prospects THAT closely, but read enough random things on this site and others about what is in the pipeline.

 

What hurts is that since the 2007 draft, there has yet to be a draft that has yielded more than 1 full time NHLer. 2013 has the best shot of breaking that streak, with McCarron, Lehkonen, and Andrighetto. Not sure if DLR will be a full timer. '08 and '09 didn't yield any NHLers.

 

So while I do think development is an issue, at some point you have to point at scouting for as many swings and misses as they have had, too.

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Guest Stogey24

It's just so tough being in the 20's every year for a draft position. 

 

Didn't see the other thread 

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1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

What I don't know is whether going after players like  mccarron in the first round is because of the size fetish is that MB or Timmons had. He doesn't fit the Timmons profile - speed and skill,

 

This is not true for Timmins first round picks.

 

Andrei Kostitsyn: 6" 205lbs

Kyle Chipchura: 6'2" 203lbs

David Fischer: 6'3" 202lbs

Ryan McDonaugh: 6'1" 215lbs

Max Pacioretty: 6'2" 213lbs

Louis Leblanc: 6" 185lbs

Jarred Tinordi: 6'6" 230lbs

Nathan Beaulieu: 6'2" 205lbs

Alex Galchenyuk: 6'2" 205lbs

Michael McCarron: 6'6" 230lbs

Nikita Scherbak: 6'2" 190lbs

Noah Juulsen: 6'3" 190lbs

Mikhail Sergachev: 6'3" 215lbs

 

It's the same head scout for all of these first rounders. He never takes a guy under six feet tall, and most of his picks become 200+ pounders in the NHL. Same guy who took Tinordi (which you might recall Montreal moved up and gave a second rounder to do so) took McCarron. The talk is that Timmins wanted Jacob de la Rose, but Bergevin was worried McCarron wouldn't be there for their next pick. Montreal got their #1 and #2 on their list that draft. Timmins was right involved.

 

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I've defended Timmins for years, but there's a clear problem with his drafting. He has only selected the best centre available twice: Jason Spezza when he was with the Ottawa Senators, and Alex Galchenyuk in 2012.

 

Every year there was a centre he probably should have taken but didn't. Let's go down the history tube!
 

2003: Jeff Carter taken after Kostitsyn, with Getzlaf, Kesler, and Richards still on the board.

2004: Took a centre nobody was saying had top six potential. Was supposed to be an "elite" third line centre. Zajac taken soon after.

2005: Best pick taken, but the other choice was Marc Staal and not Anze Kopitar.

2006: Oh hi Giroux

2007: Probably a good year to not take a centre with Eller and Backlund the only guys nearby.

2009: Took Leblanc with Kreider and Johannsen nearby but I don't blame him on that pick. Even McKenzie was saying he was a higher ranked player.

2010: If they didn't trade down they'd be looking at Charlie Coyle or Brock Nelson with the first and Oscar Lindberg with the second. After trading they could have had Kuznetsov.

2011: No centres worth taking near the Beaulieu pick.

2012: Galchenyuk

2013: Marko Dano, basically it.

2014: Probably too early

2015: Too early but Juulsen (or Beauviller) look to be the best picks

2016: Too early and most of the good centres had been taken but I like Jost a lot

 

So this is not about getting every draft pick right. And not every year was there a good centre available. But when your centre drafting in the first round, despite being a need since 2006, is Chipchura/Leblanc/Galchenyuk, after 15 years? There's something wrong here. 2010 was the big flop for me. Coyle took a few years to finally get it but this season he's a 56 point centreman at 6'3" with a right handed shot. What, we didn't need to draft a centre after trading for Lars Eller?

 

I think Timmins is one of the very best at finding wingers, but his centre drafting has been atrocious and clearly hurt the team. Do we need to improve our developing? Sure, but it's not like we even handed good centres for Lefevbre to ruin. There has been nobody.

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The NHL Centre issue is basically the NFL QB issue. 

 

With rare exceptions, number 1 centres are taken in the first two rounds (with most in the first round).  You aren't getting #1 Centres later in the draft.  Marc Bergevin was right in saying that you can't get number 1 centres with late picks very often (his arbitrary cut off of the 20s was probably wrong though, but I digress....). 

 

Honestly, the Habs have three picks in the first two rounds.  I'm all in favor of either trading up to get your hands on a Nick Suzuki, or Lias Andersson, or whatever in the mid teens, or using all three picks on Centres.  If you don't draft centres early, you don't find them late. 

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1 hour ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

This is not true for Timmins first round picks.

 

Andrei Kostitsyn: 6" 205lbs

Kyle Chipchura: 6'2" 203lbs

David Fischer: 6'3" 202lbs

Ryan McDonaugh: 6'1" 215lbs

Max Pacioretty: 6'2" 213lbs

Louis Leblanc: 6" 185lbs

Jarred Tinordi: 6'6" 230lbs

Nathan Beaulieu: 6'2" 205lbs

Alex Galchenyuk: 6'2" 205lbs

Michael McCarron: 6'6" 230lbs

Nikita Scherbak: 6'2" 190lbs

Noah Juulsen: 6'3" 190lbs

Mikhail Sergachev: 6'3" 215lbs

 

It's the same head scout for all of these first rounders. He never takes a guy under six feet tall, and most of his picks become 200+ pounders in the NHL. Same guy who took Tinordi (which you might recall Montreal moved up and gave a second rounder to do so) took McCarron. The talk is that Timmins wanted Jacob de la Rose, but Bergevin was worried McCarron wouldn't be there for their next pick. Montreal got their #1 and #2 on their list that draft. Timmins was right involved.

 

There's a difference between drafting guys that have size to go along with skill and speed (AK46, MaxPac, AG27, Scherbak).  On that list Chipchura and McCarron are the anomalies.  Chipchura was supposed to be a Bob Gainey leader type, McCarron a Lucic Reach - neither had speed.  Leblanc was not size (185lb, 6ft is NOT big), or speed. That looked like the draft is in Montreal, so we got to go with the French kid.  The player after him had size, speed and skill (Kreider) who the habs should have been all over.

 

The others on the list are Dman.  Fischer was SUPPOSED to be skilled, McDonaugh was a rock (Weber type), Tinordi was a bloodlines reach - not sure if that wasn't a Gainey influence, since he coached/was GM of the dad, Beaulieu is a puck mover, Juulsen is a puck mover and Sergachev is a puck mover.

 

Even if you look at later rounds, the promising picks from Timmins were small, but had speed to burn - Gallaghar, Hudon, Andrighetto, Audette, the French kid who's name escaped me (but almost died in junior) and Reway.  some were 6'0, or close to it, but with their build, none of these are considered power forwards.

 

Big guys like DLR were always seen as third liners.

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Every centre in the Top 30 scoring (points per game, at least 40 games played) was a first round pick except Joe Pavelski.

 

Which means you need to use your first round picks on centres to get one.

 

Which Montreal has done three times in Timmins entire tenure. Despite always needing a top six centre (except maybe early on when they had Koivu/Ribeiro/Plekanec I guess), 13 first round draft picks and only three centres drafted.

 

The 13 first rounders before that (91-02) included Saku Koivu, Matt Higgins, and Eric Chouinard. Again only three picks (and similarly, one was good and two were bad). It's pretty sad in this franchises drafting history that Alex Galchenyuk, Saku Koivu, and Andrew Cassels is the best you got for the franchise history of first round pick centres.  

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7 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

Every centre in the Top 30 scoring (points per game, at least 40 games played) was a first round pick except Joe Pavelski.

 

Which means you need to use your first round picks on centres to get one.

 

Which Montreal has done three times in Timmins entire tenure. Despite always needing a top six centre (except maybe early on when they had Koivu/Ribeiro/Plekanec I guess), 13 first round draft picks and only three centres drafted.

 

The 13 first rounders before that (91-02) included Saku Koivu, Matt Higgins, and Eric Chouinard. Again only three picks (and similarly, one was good and two were bad). It's pretty sad in this franchises drafting history that Alex Galchenyuk, Saku Koivu, and Andrew Cassels is the best you got for the franchise history of first round pick centres.  

Hey, I agree and thought the habs should have drafted Getzlaf over Ak46 (saw him regularly with the hitmen), and kopitar instead of Price.  My point is that it doesn't seem that Timmons has a size fetish.  I'd also say 5 of his picks seem to be GM picks (chipchura, tinordi, mccarron, Leblanc and price).  The only one he totally messed up was Fischer. And gainey screwed us over on trading McDonough, and MB on Subban 

 

 

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I'd love for NHL teams to modernize and take a top-down approach to talent development.  Have a coherent coaching style that is implemented in the minors through to the big club.  The Bergevin regime doesn't seem like the most forward-thinking, but we should have an opportunity to improve our player development with the AHL club in Laval.  

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Commandant said:

Lefebvre has coached the AHL team for what 4 years now? 5?

 

the only prospects developped in that time who are full-time NHLers..... Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Lehkonen, Beaulieu. 

 

Gallagher spent less than half a season with Lefebvre. 

Galchenyuk and Lehknonen never played under Lefebvre. 

Beaulieu had a good couple years with him. 

Pateryn had a couple years with him. 


Thats a pretty damning list.  Three of the five guys who developped into NHLers spent almost no time with him.  The fourth guy is not near what people hoped of him (though some of that is on development post-call up, I grant that). Still 1 guy in five years?  Pateryn i think you have to consider a success given a fifth rounder who developped into an NHLer, I don't know how much more we could ask for. McCarron might make a third guy under him, and he's not exactly lighting the world on fire either. 

Edit: Add Andrighetto, thanks Huzer.

 

So if we really stretch, we get 4 prospects developped in 5 years, and none of them are worth writing home about (Pateryn, Andrighetto, McCarron, Beaulieu)­. 

 

Now, consider that with Lever, Boucher, Cunneyworth, Timmins' picks were developing into NHLers at a high rate, and I know who I'd be looking to change. 

 

An organization that actually wants to win the Cup, instead of just making excuses for failing to do anything year after year, is the Chicago Blackhawks, which just fired their AHL coach on the grounds that player development is not where they need it to be.

 

Will MB stick with his bum buddy, the universally panned Lefebvre whose track record seems to be one of nearly unmitigated failure, or will he learn from his former organization? History suggests the former.

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Timmins used to have my support on the amount (quantity) of players he'd break into the NHL. Four roster players in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2007. To say you pushed 17 NHL players in a five year span (2006 got Ryan White) is tremendous.

 

2008-2012 has produced Alex Galchenyuk, Nathan Beaulieu, and Brendan Gallagher.

 

2013 was a decent draft year due to Lehkonen and possibly McCarron and Andrighetto. De la Rose, Fucale, and Reway are all big question marks.

 

2014-2016 is too early.

 

Those five years from 08-12 where we produced only three players is a big reason the team is constantly having to trade and sign guys. It's why we use up late picks for guys like Flynn, Mitchell, Ott, and King. It's why Bergevin valued Andrew Shaw so much. It's bad when you can't produce top six forwards in your system but this team struggles to even produce bottom six guys!

 

It's time for him to go. You know, maybe he becomes an assistant GM or something, but it's more likely he needs to just find a new organization. This team needs new leadership in amateur scouting, and it needs new people to develop the players.

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12 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Great post. That record is horrible.

Yea.. that is abysmal. I honestly think it's more development that's the problem. We always come away from our drafts with the consensus from this board and analysts alike it looked decent at least, and within a few years they haven't panned out. Something clearly has to change.

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1 hour ago, Meller93 said:

Yea.. that is abysmal. I honestly think it's more development that's the problem. We always come away from our drafts with the consensus from this board and analysts alike it looked decent at least, and within a few years they haven't panned out. Something clearly has to change.

The only 2 picks I wasn't fond of at time of draft, were Tinordi and McCarron, the rest seemed reasonable at the time, Crisp was bit of longshot but at time seemed good risk.

At least they have the 5 2nd round picks (over next two years) to barter with this year.

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2 hours ago, Meller93 said:

Yea.. that is abysmal. I honestly think it's more development that's the problem. We always come away from our drafts with the consensus from this board and analysts alike it looked decent at least, and within a few years they haven't panned out. Something clearly has to change.

 

In all fairness, Gainey - who did an excellent job of drafting, it seems to me - traded away tons of picks in the build up to 2009. So a dip in the aftermath of that was to be expected. But these results seem to be below even those modified expectations.  It's a disaster that is compromising both the current team and any hope that we can escape misery once this core declines.

 

Maybe the way forward is to echo was Bob did after '09. Faced with huge roster holes, he signed a bunch of UFAs to 4-year deals, a move designed to paper over the holes, keeping thr team competitive while allowing the next wave of talent (notably Patches, Subban, and the Gal(l)ys) to emerge. MB can't rely on the UFA market like Gainey did, but IF he can lock up Radulov and add another couple of impact KHL veterans, maybe we can ride out a vereran core while stockpiling and developing sufficient prospects to supplant that core over the next 4-5 years. It's a long shot and would require skill in drafting and development that the MB regime has yet to show. But in theory it could work.

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Juulsen got his 1st taste of pro hockey yesterday, Mete still waiting (or slighted injured perhaps?).

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On 2017-04-27 at 11:14 AM, DON said:

Juulsen got his 1st taste of pro hockey yesterday, Mete still waiting (or slighted injured perhaps?).

 

Mete is healthy but is being scratched.

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