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REV-G

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I wonder if the glass is half full and not half empty?

 

For some it all depends on how you look at things. So let me suggest a glass half full scenario with a question/suggestion at the end about the next few years.

 

I agree that losing Radulov is a big deal. But we may have to wait a year to be fully convinced how damaging his loss is. If he continues with the same passion and energy with as good or better results, then a year from now we will all agree that losing him was in fact a bitter pill to swallow. However there have been many players who faded considerably after signing a large contract so I think we have to wait and see. I think there may be some questions about his motives in coming back to the NHL. Was it to be the best or the richest. We'll have a better idea a year from now. 

 

I'm making a few assumptions about this coming year. I understand assumptions mean nothing until the results are in but here goes:

- I'm assuming Markov will return and our top 4 will not be bad and our bottom 3 will be average. Pittsburgh won without a very strong d this year, more average. 

- I'm assuming Alex Galchenyuk will have an outstanding bounce back year, to prove MB wrong, and everyone will be saying how fortunate we are that we didn't trade him.

- I'm assuming Gallagher will also have a better year.

- I'm assuming Jonathan Drouin will soar. I read one writer from Tampa Bay who said he thought Tampa made a big mistake in trading Drouin. If [assumption] Drouin is a Tyler Seguin situation we may be pleasantly surprised. 

-  I'm assuming that Claude Julien, with a full training camp, will make a noticeable difference in how we play.

So I think [assumption] that things could perhaps turn out better than what some are expecting.

 

The Future: 

This is more of a question than a statement.

We have some good young players....Drouin, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Lekonen, and some of the other younger 3d and 4th liners.

If we don't exceed what we did last year, seeing that hockey is more of a business now that it was 30 years ago, instead of slowly sliding into mediocrity, could we not get some excellent young players back if a year from now, we decided we had to retool, and traded Max P and Carey Price and even tried to move Weber, and go all in on a youth movement? Besides the return player wise, we would save millions and be able to sign some good free agents next summer. 

I think the return on Max and Carey would bring back some very good young players.

 

I think our future could still be bright. What do you think? 

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2 hours ago, REV-G said:

I wonder if the glass is half full and not half empty?

 

For some it all depends on how you look at things. So let me suggest a glass half full scenario with a question/suggestion at the end about the next few years.

 

I agree that losing Radulov is a big deal. But we may have to wait a year to be fully convinced how damaging his loss is. If he continues with the same passion and energy with as good or better results, then a year from now we will all agree that losing him was in fact a bitter pill to swallow. However there have been many players who faded considerably after signing a large contract so I think we have to wait and see. I think there may be some questions about his motives in coming back to the NHL. Was it to be the best or the richest. We'll have a better idea a year from now. 

 

I'm making a few assumptions about this coming year. I understand assumptions mean nothing until the results are in but here goes:

- I'm assuming Markov will return and our top 4 will not be bad and our bottom 3 will be average. Pittsburgh won without a very strong d this year, more average. 

- I'm assuming Alex Galchenyuk will have an outstanding bounce back year, to prove MB wrong, and everyone will be saying how fortunate we are that we didn't trade him.

- I'm assuming Gallagher will also have a better year.

- I'm assuming Jonathan Drouin will soar. I read one writer from Tampa Bay who said he thought Tampa made a big mistake in trading Drouin. If [assumption] Drouin is a Tyler Seguin situation we may be pleasantly surprised. 

-  I'm assuming that Claude Julien, with a full training camp, will make a noticeable difference in how we play.

So I think [assumption] that things could perhaps turn out better than what some are expecting.

 

The Future: 

This is more of a question than a statement.

We have some good young players....Drouin, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Lekonen, and some of the other younger 3d and 4th liners.

If we don't exceed what we did last year, seeing that hockey is more of a business now that it was 30 years ago, instead of slowly sliding into mediocrity, could we not get some excellent young players back if a year from now, we decided we had to retool, and traded Max P and Carey Price and even tried to move Weber, and go all in on a youth movement? Besides the return player wise, we would save millions and be able to sign some good free agents next summer. 

I think the return on Max and Carey would bring back some very good young players.

 

I think our future could still be bright. What do you think? 

 

Great post!

 

If all of your assumptions hold up, then yes, the Canadiens will have a great year. I've said in other posts that if Markov comes back, the team is improved overall from last season because it upgraded on Emelin. I would add that the team needs to use Galy or Drouin, and probably both, at C, and to have them be successful at C, if it hopes to contend. Danault and Patches (!) is an absolute joke as a 1-2 duo on a team with pretensions to contention.

 

I like the way you're thinking on the future. If MB is proactive with Weber and Patches especially - I doubt any team will want in on Price if he is visibly declining, and I doubt that MB will move him if he isn't - then those guys could be great deadline-day trades bringing back high-end picks and prospects. So, it's true; we could replenish the system by jettisoning the declining core in 2-3 years. Assuming that is, some team is stupid enough to take on Weber's ridiculous contract.

 

This scenario still risks faltering, however, on the Bergevin regime's patent incompetence at developing young players. No point in infusing the system if you can't make anything out of the talent acquired. So, you may need to add a third condition to your scenario:

 

3. Lefebvre and the Bergevin regime in general learns from its mistakes and gets good at developing youth.

 

Another question is whether Bergevin has the vision to pull off the 'rebuild' strategy you sketch above - or whether Molson will allow the team to miss the playoffs for a couple of seasons at it retools. I don't know the answer to that.

 

 

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I look more on the side of the fact we have no young guns waiting to make the jump full time to the nhl. To me it wouldn't matter as much if we don't sign any ufa's or we let our ageing ufa's walk and not over pay them if we had the younger guys ready to make the jump. But we don't.

 

case in point who is our puck moving D for the power play units? Petry is the only one. 

 

Plek is is our highest paid forward at 6mil. 

 

When I look at the future of this team we are in trouble. There is no upside when it comes to looking at the youth and prospects of this team. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Habsfan1989 said:

I look more on the side of the fact we have no young guns waiting to make the jump full time to the nhl. To me it wouldn't matter as much if we don't sign any ufa's or we let our ageing ufa's walk and not over pay them if we had the younger guys ready to make the jump. But we don't.

 

case in point who is our puck moving D for the power play units? Petry is the only one. 

 

Plek is is our highest paid forward at 6mil. 

 

When I look at the future of this team we are in trouble. There is no upside when it comes to looking at the youth and prospects of this team. 

 

 

 

I couldn't agree more, but I saw Rev's point as being more that we could flip some our vets for impact picks/prospects close to their 'best before' date. If we do that, we might be able to add an impact player or two to a future core of Galy, Drouin, Gallagher, Lehkonen, Juulsen, as well as added bits like McCarron. This could help to make the future look less dire. As I say above, though, a lot has to happen for this to work out properly. It'd be a long shot.

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7 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I couldn't agree more, but I saw Rev's point as being more that we could flip some our vets for impact picks/prospects close to their 'best before' date. If we do that, we might be able to add an impact player or two to a future core of Galy, Drouin, Gallagher, Lehkonen, Juulsen, as well as added bits like McCarron. This could help to make the future look less dire. As I say above, though, a lot has to happen for this to work out properly. It'd be a long shot.

Sorry but I think MB only play here to get a puck moving D and a center is that at  this point to trade his only 2 trade able chips that he has left and that is Galchenyuk and Gallagher.

 

if he packages both along with picks he could get what he is looking for.  So don't be surprised if by the time the season starts both of them are gone.

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I think we're being dramatic in the vein of entitled fans looking at an also-ran, second round max team. But there's no doubt this team isn't capable of winning a Stanley Cup, and isn't a few moves away from being a contender. However, as early as 2-3 years ago, the team was well on track to that goal, and that's where the angst lies.

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26 minutes ago, Habsfan1989 said:

Sorry but I think MB only play here to get a puck moving D and a center is that at  this point to trade his only 2 trade able chips that he has left and that is Galchenyuk and Gallagher.

 

if he packages both along with picks he could get what he is looking for.  So don't be surprised if by the time the season starts both of them are gone.

 

I won't be surprised at all. In fact, if Markov fails to re-sign, I really believe that Galy will be shipped out for a #2 LD.

 

Honestly, as I think harder about REV-G's scenario, I'm having more trouble with it. Patches will bring value back, no question. But Weber...damn. How many contending teams are going to have the cap space to take on a 34-35-year-old Weber? If the answer is, 'not many, then his value as a deadline acquisition recedes. OK, then, how many teams in general will have $8 mil in cap room to add a declining Weber? Will they not be able to find better uses of that cap space, especially since he is on the books for an eternity? In short, it's not clear that we'll be able to create an auction for Weber that will be sufficient to yield elite returns. And I don't believe Price will ever be traded by this management group.

 

So maybe it wouldn't work even if it were tried.

 

All that said, the basic idea of giving up on core veterans and turning them into prospects maybe two years from now is not a bad one. Credit to REV-G for thinking outside the box.

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2 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I won't be surprised at all. In fact, if Markov fails to re-sign, I really believe that Galy will be shipped out for a #2 LD.

 

Honestly, as I think harder about REV-G's scenario, I'm having more trouble with it. Patches will bring value back, no question. But Weber...damn. How many contending teams are going to have the cap space to take on a 34-35-year-old Weber? If the answer is, 'not many, then his value as a deadline acquisition recedes. OK, then, how many teams in general will have $8 mil in cap room to add a declining Weber? Will they not be able to find better uses of that cap space, especially since he is on the books for an eternity? In short, it's not clear that we'll be able to create an auction for Weber that will be sufficient to yield elite returns. And I don't believe Price will ever be traded by this management group.

 

So maybe it wouldn't work even if it were tried.

 

All that said, the basic idea of giving up on core veterans and turning them into prospects maybe two years from now is not a bad one. Credit to REV-G for thinking outside the box.

If your looking at trade a 34-35 year old weber and wondering how you go about doing it, you would have to eat a lot of that contract. Or take on a similar contract to off set each other. But if you do that would you not just keep him? Then take on a similar contract? 

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4 minutes ago, Habsfan1989 said:

If your looking at trade a 34-35 year old weber and wondering how you go about doing it, you would have to eat a lot of that contract. Or take on a similar contract to off set each other. But if you do that would you not just keep him? Then take on a similar contract? 

 

Well, the idea would be to get a high-end prospect back, even if we have to take on another bad contract or retain salary. Said prospect would only come from a contending team, since other teams will cling to their prospects. But contenders don't generally have $8 mil in cap space sitting around (especially since Weber's contract basically never expires).

 

I like the concept, but yeah - it just won't work.

 

 

 

 

 

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Our depth at centre is worse than Vegas.

 

375 days ago we had 5 mobile/puck-moving defensemen who were projected to be able to play top 4 minutes. Today we have 1. If anyone doesn't think that is a downwards trend, we need to find their time machine and send them back to the mid-90's where they came from. 

 

We are deepest at goaltending - a position with 0 trade market.

 

So it really doesn't matter to me if the glass is half full or half empty... because the liquid it's holding is urine. 

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Of consequence

In
Drouin
Hemsky
Alzner
Schlemko

 

Out
Emelin
Beaulieu
Radulov
Sergachev
King


Maybe
Markov


Drouin > Radulov.   He's younger with a higher ceiling.  I'm sure the 58 points Radulov got last year will be something Drouing brings again. 
Hemsky > King.  Easy here.
Alzner >> Emelin, Huge upgrade
Schlemko > Beaulieu. 

 

 

Markov is the piece that has to be replaced.  We either bring him back or we have 6 million to spend in a trade. 

 

Sergachev is the big loss, but its a future loss and he wasn't on the team, so in comparing last year's team vs this year's team he's a non-entity.  Of course, His loss hurts for future years as there is no d to replace him... but keep in mind the Drouin vs Radulov comparison.   We didn't just replace one year of radulov, we got a 23 year old who will produce effectively for many years and has not hit his prime, so consider that in any "futures analysis".

 

Overall the off-season comes down to that $6 million.  Can they use it to bring Markov back or improve at that position.  if they can, then Bergevin did well.  If they can't, then he didnt. 

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1 hour ago, Habsfan1989 said:

Sorry but I think MB only play here to get a puck moving D and a center is that at  this point to trade his only 2 trade able chips that he has left and that is Galchenyuk and Gallagher.

 

if he packages both along with picks he could get what he is looking for.  So don't be surprised if by the time the season starts both of them are gone.

100% agree.  MB's focus isn't the long term success of the habs anymore.  He is now in saving his ass mode.  He's been here 5 years.  The cupboard of prospects is near, 2 years ago we missed the playoffs. Last year we got knocked out in the first round.  He has to get the team to take he next step. There is no way we will be a legitimate contender, but all his eggs are on Price getting this team through the playoffs.  I agree that he will continue to try and move galchenyuk and Gallagher is probably the other chip he will consider moving.

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1 hour ago, Habsfan1989 said:

Well you got to look at it like pens taking on phils contract I think if I remember correctly leafs eat 20% of it. Which then made it easier to take Phil. So a weber trade would be along the same lines.

A Weber trade would be an admission of a mistake.  MB and his Mgmt team don't make mistakes.  It's the damn players who don't perform and take accountability for their play.

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15 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Of consequence

In
Drouin
Hemsky
Alzner
Schlemko

 

Out
Emelin
Beaulieu
Radulov
Sergachev
King


Maybe
Markov


Drouin > Radulov.   He's younger with a higher ceiling.  I'm sure the 58 points Radulov got last year will be something Drouing brings again. 
Hemsky > King.  Easy here.
Alzner >> Emelin, Huge upgrade
Schlemko > Beaulieu. 

 

 

Markov is the piece that has to be replaced.  We either bring him back or we have 6 million to spend in a trade. 

 

Sergachev is the big loss, but its a future loss and he wasn't on the team, so in comparing last year's team vs this year's team he's a non-entity.  Of course, His loss hurts for future years as there is no d to replace him... but keep in mind the Drouin vs Radulov comparison.   We didn't just replace one year of radulov, we got a 23 year old who will produce effectively for many years and has not hit his prime, so consider that in any "futures analysis".

 

Overall the off-season comes down to that $6 million.  Can they use it to bring Markov back or improve at that position.  if they can, then Bergevin did well.  If they can't, then he didnt. 

Mostly agree, but Sergechev may have made a significant impact by playoff time this year, certainly more than hemsky will.

 

By the same token, Drouin is also expected to produce more in the future than radulov (hasn't happened yet - but I think he will), but it's far from a certainty 

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14 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Of consequence

In
Drouin
Hemsky
Alzner
Schlemko

 

Out
Emelin
Beaulieu
Radulov
Sergachev
King


Maybe
Markov


Drouin > Radulov.   He's younger with a higher ceiling.  I'm sure the 58 points Radulov got last year will be something Drouing brings again. 
Hemsky > King.  Easy here.
Alzner >> Emelin, Huge upgrade
Schlemko > Beaulieu. 

 

 

Markov is the piece that has to be replaced.  We either bring him back or we have 6 million to spend in a trade. 

 

Sergachev is the big loss, but its a future loss and he wasn't on the team, so in comparing last year's team vs this year's team he's a non-entity.  Of course, His loss hurts for future years as there is no d to replace him... but keep in mind the Drouin vs Radulov comparison.   We didn't just replace one year of radulov, we got a 23 year old who will produce effectively for many years and has not hit his prime, so consider that in any "futures analysis".

 

Overall the off-season comes down to that $6 million.  Can they use it to bring Markov back or improve at that position.  if they can, then Bergevin did well.  If they can't, then he didnt. 

 

A great, logical and non-emotional analysis 

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The thing is when we aquired Drouin I thought that we were finally going for it. We gave up our prized piece and were about to lay it all down for a serious shot at the cup. I thought that we were going to have a potent offense and at worst the same basic defense that we had last year. Perhaps a trade to upgrade centre but this was finally it, we were making a serious statement.

 

Now it seems that we are just trying to stay afloat and hopefully make the playoffs "where anything can happen".

 

I like your vision for the future and the positive spin on it. I am also incredibly worried that we have the worse prospects in the NHL. We have nothing developing, nothing to hope for in this area. Trading all of our vets for young guys/picks is something that would happen in a few years when they aren't worth as much. What will Weber be worth in three years?

 

We are doomed to high priced UFAs to fill holes for the foreseeable future or trades wich are hard.

 

I am disappointed because I thought that we were so close and now it looks very far. I look at our team and there seems to be very little to be excited about or hopeful of.

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1 hour ago, Habsfan1989 said:

If your looking at trade a 34-35 year old weber and wondering how you go about doing it, you would have to eat a lot of that contract. Or take on a similar contract to off set each other. But if you do that would you not just keep him? Then take on a similar contract? 

 

 

OORRRR...

 

Maybe, since Weber plays a very similar style to Chara, who has never relied on skating to be effective. He can remain a damn good Dman until he is 39, you know that is still a possibility.

 

In any case we are more than likely not going to be able to trade him, and from that standpoint I rather compare him to a guy like Chara, and hope he can hold on to his effectiveness for longer than most. Chara and Weber rely on the pretty much the exact same weapons and Chara remained a top Dman up until last season, guy is going to be 40 next year and though he might not be in the Norris conversation anymore, still remains an effective Dman. It seems to be the trend, players who are very successful without the use of speed throughout their careers, take longer to decline. Look at Chara, Positional play, a slapshot from hell, nasty in the corners and the front of the net, wins almost every battle within 20 feet of his net, good clean first passes. Sound familiar? that is almost exactly Weber's game, these guys don't rely on speed to be effective, and as you get older that is the sure fire thing to go. Hasn't stopped Chara from being damn good up until 40, might be the same with Weber. Jagr is another great example of how his tool max is full of tricks that never involved blazing down the ice like Pavel Bure. Guy is all strength, hands, and hockey I.Q, and low and behold, remains a productive 40+ point guy still.

 

I agree with the Keep him part, he has more odds than guys who build their game around their legs like Karlsson and company to remain effective well into his 30's, he is a good guy to have around in your team's atmosphere. Even as he becomes a grizzled old veteran I still rather have him around for the kids in 7 or 8 years to absorb what he has to offer about what it takes to be a pro, a good example, and a guy your team mates will follow to battle.

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22 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Of consequence

In
Drouin
Hemsky
Alzner
Schlemko

 

Out
Emelin
Beaulieu
Radulov
Sergachev
King


Maybe
Markov


Drouin > Radulov.   He's younger with a higher ceiling.  I'm sure the 58 points Radulov got last year will be something Drouing brings again. 
Hemsky > King.  Easy here.
Alzner >> Emelin, Huge upgrade
Schlemko > Beaulieu. 

 

 

Markov is the piece that has to be replaced.  We either bring him back or we have 6 million to spend in a trade. 

 

Sergachev is the big loss, but its a future loss and he wasn't on the team, so in comparing last year's team vs this year's team he's a non-entity.  Of course, His loss hurts for future years as there is no d to replace him... but keep in mind the Drouin vs Radulov comparison.   We didn't just replace one year of radulov, we got a 23 year old who will produce effectively for many years and has not hit his prime, so consider that in any "futures analysis".

 

Overall the off-season comes down to that $6 million.  Can they use it to bring Markov back or improve at that position.  if they can, then Bergevin did well.  If they can't, then he didnt. 

 

 

Pretty much bang on with a nearly identical point I made in a different thread.

 

Markov is the only hinge that holds the door open to regression, we bring him back or replace him with a puck mover who is younger, and we instantly upgraded from last season either by a little or a lot, depending on what comes into the fold.

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2 minutes ago, Link67 said:

 

 

Pretty much bang on with a nearly identical point I made in a different thread.

 

Markov is the only hinge that holds the door open to regression, we bring him back or replace him with a puck mover who is younger, and we instantly upgraded from last season either by a little or a lot, depending on what comes into the fold.

 

We were poised to take a large step ahead now at best we can break even at the cost of out top prospect?/

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9 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Mostly agree, but Sergechev may have made a significant impact by playoff time this year, certainly more than hemsky will.

 

By the same token, Drouin is also expected to produce more in the future than radulov (hasn't happened yet - but I think he will), but it's far from a certainty 

 

I think a 21 year old Drouin was 1 point away from a 31 year old Radulov.

 

it is almost a safe bet to assume Drouin will outproduce him as early as this coming season, never mind the odds of its certainty when the kid is 26 and hitting his Full Stride in the NHL. He has as good of odds as anyone to be a near PPG player for a solid chunk of his years between 25 and 31, he has the talent, he has top tier role here, and he was projected to do no less. Add to that he has already outproduced most players on this team at age 21, and well, the odds really start to stack in favor of Drouin. 2 to 3 years from now Drouin will be flirting with the Dawn of his prime years, and Radulov will be flirting with the Dusk of his.

 

While nothing is certain, I can confidently say it is not "far from certain" in this case, its nearly certain

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38 minutes ago, Trizzak said:

Our depth at centre is worse than Vegas.

 

375 days ago we had 5 mobile/puck-moving defensemen who were projected to be able to play top 4 minutes. Today we have 1. If anyone doesn't think that is a downwards trend, we need to find their time machine and send them back to the mid-90's where they came from. 

 

We are deepest at goaltending - a position with 0 trade market.

 

So it really doesn't matter to me if the glass is half full or half empty... because the liquid it's holding is urine. 

 

:lol:   10/10

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8 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

The thing is when we aquired Drouin I thought that we were finally going for it. We gave up our prized piece and were about to lay it all down for a serious shot at the cup. I thought that we were going to have a potent offense and at worst the same basic defense that we had last year. Perhaps a trade to upgrade centre but this was finally it, we were making a serious statement.

 

Now it seems that we are just trying to stay afloat and hopefully make the playoffs "where anything can happen".

 

I like your vision for the future and the positive spin on it. I am also incredibly worried that we have the worse prospects in the NHL. We have nothing developing, nothing to hope for in this area. Trading all of our vets for young guys/picks is something that would happen in a few years when they aren't worth as much. What will Weber be worth in three years?

 

We are doomed to high priced UFAs to fill holes for the foreseeable future or trades wich are hard.

 

I am disappointed because I thought that we were so close and now it looks very far. I look at our team and there seems to be very little to be excited about or hopeful of.

 

I don't see how your whole vision about the direction of the team changed simply because Radulov chose to sign elsewhere. MB acquired Drouin to add to scoring as his goal was to keep the team intact. How does it seem the team is just trying to stay afloat? 

 

There's nothing to be hopeful for? I'd be pretty excited about two young 3rd overall picks in our top 6. I'd be excited about Lehkonen who can potentially be a star in this league. I'd be excited about Gallagher having a bounce back season. I'd be excited about Weber being a top 10 dman yet again. I'd be excited about Pacioretty scoring 35. Id be excited about a darkhorse prospect earning his way on the roster. And finally I'd be excited about a former Hart trophy winner finishing his career as a Hab. 

 

This team won the division last year and you're worried about staying afloat. 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Link67 said:

 

I think a 21 year old Drouin was 1 point away from a 31 year old Radulov.

 

it is almost a safe bet to assume Drouin will outproduce him as early as this coming season, never mind the odds of its certainty when the kid is 26 and hitting his Full Stride in the NHL. He has as good of odds as anyone to be a near PPG player for a solid chunk of his years between 25 and 31, he has the talent, he has top tier role here, and he was projected to do no less. Add to that he has already outproduced most players on this team at age 21, and well, the odds really start to stack in favor of Drouin. 2 to 3 years from now Drouin will be flirting with the Dawn of his prime years, and Radulov will be flirting with the Dusk of his.

 

While nothing is certain, I can confidently say it is not "far from certain" in this case, its nearly certain

Hey I said in my post that I think he will - only caveat is that radulov will play with seguin or spezza - which is why I think it is far from a certainty, since who knows who Drouin will play with 

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1 minute ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Hey I said in my post that I think he will - only caveat is  Hat radulov will play with seguin or spezza - which is why I think it is far from a certainty, since who knows who Drouin will play with 

 

I can certainly agree with it when put that way

 

However we can't because if we are to assess whether Drouin will bring more production to the table than Radulov you have to use who they play with Here as the comparison. Or flip them around, Can Drouin playing with Pacioretty all year produce more than Radulov? pretty good odds of that going forward. Could Drouin produce more than Radulov will if he went to Dallas and played with Seguin or Spezza going forward? also pretty good odds of that. 

 

See how the whole thing looks when you start comparing apples and apples.

 

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