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Oct. 10, Home Opener, Chicago vs Montreal

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DON    27
9 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

The post is factual but presents neither a positive or negative meaning. It's unsustainable to score 1 goal per game with that many shots but it means nothing in regards to how that may translate to the win and loss column. . 

Yes it does. A team that outshoots other teams consistently wins more, that one isn't rocket science or a goofy useless fancy stat.

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DON    27
8 hours ago, brobin said:

Vegas is currently 3-0. That’s right...a team made up of the cast offs from other teams has a better record then the Habs

And?

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DON    27
57 minutes ago, Stogey24 said:

 d-core that's  a disaster.

Based on what? Giving up 25 shots?

1st goal was 2 on 2 shot from pretty far out.

2nd goal was 3 on 2 (where were the forwards?) and Weber left Mete with 2 guys to cover...so does that mean Weber is a disaster on defense?

3rd was a PPG and can blame the forward (Danault) who took penalty.

 

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DON    27

Well, I think that was 1st time Galchenyuk was soundly booed by home crowd. What is going on with him, he is worse than bad and making passes to no-one or directly to opponent...every game so far? He had 5:10 on the PP and made nothing happen.

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PMAC    81
10 hours ago, sim.on said:

The sample size is too small to draw any conclusions about this team. The regular season started less than a week ago.

I say 10 more games in and we will have a much more accurate picture.

Shhh! Common sense and logic only serve to further enrage most of the fan base. I mean everybody knows that a hot start indicates a successful season and a long playoff run and play off success! Right? I mean it is a foregone conclusion that James Neal is going to score at least 80 goals and Vegas will make the playoffs! Right? 😎

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bar    23
1 minute ago, PMAC said:

Shhh! Common sense and logic only serve to further enrage most of the fan base. I mean everybody knows that a hot start indicates a successful season and a long playoff run and play off success! Right? I mean it is a foregone conclusion that James Neal is going to score at least 80 goals and Vegas will make the playoffs! Right? 😎

The issue people rightly are having is the issues from pre-season, the issues people said the team would have when the roster was made in the summer is happening. It's not the team lit it up in pre-season and is just having a rough patch. Some people think this is the level of the team, some think it will get better, we will see who right very soon.

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PMAC    81

4 games.

My point, also actually the point of the poster I quoted-- is not about the quality of the team.

 

Our point is that after 4 games no one knows.

Granted, 4 goals in 4 games is not cause for optimism, but the team started like a house on fire the last 3 seasons and that did not work out, so perhaps a slow start followed by better play will work 

  • Upvote 1

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48 minutes ago, bar said:

The issue people rightly are having is the issues from pre-season, the issues people said the team would have when the roster was made in the summer is happening. It's not the team lit it up in pre-season and is just having a rough patch. Some people think this is the level of the team, some think it will get better, we will see who right very soon.

 

Statistically, Commandant is right. The team will not score 82 goals on the season.

 

We've seen this movie before. Team gets chances, struggles to score; lots of muttering about puck luck and how the bomb from the point on the PP just isn't going in. It happened in the playoffs in both 2015 and 2017, and suffices to eliminate a team over a series. But in the regular season, what tends to happen is that at some point the dam bursts. The team wins 6-3 or something and goes on a winning streak.

 

And eventually, it reverts back to what it's been all along - a team with a popgun offence that struggles to score night in and night out.

 

Structurally, I see at least two fundamental problems. One is the lack of puck-moving, puck-controlling d-men. This hurts the offence more than many fans seem to appreciate. The other is that our FWs are too similar in kind: average-sized, middling-skill guys. We can't throw different 'looks' at the opposition - the way we could when Radulov brought a power game in the o-zone, for instance - and we sure can't play 'heavy.' But nor can we overwhelm teams with a single surpassing strength like speed, the way we did sometimes in the Smurf era when the league was slower.

 

So my conclusion is that this team will eventually start scoring, but not enough to do much damage. MB is a failure.

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sbhatt    18

Great post C.C.   You pretty much echoed my thoughts on this team, minus an added gripe about the lack of quality at center.

 

Bergevin is a failure indeed, and he can't be sent packing soon enough IMO

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brobin    120
3 hours ago, illWill said:

 

They also have a better record than 29 other teams. Do they all suck as well? 

 

No they don’t. I know it is early, but I don’t see the Habs making the playoffs. If they do, it will be close and they will out in the first round. The need to make some changes that improve the team, not stand still or make it worse.  

 

We won a shootout over the worse team in the east. Yippee.

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DON    27
2 hours ago, bar said:

The issue people rightly are having is the issues from pre-season, the issues people said the team would have when the roster was made in the summer is happening. It's not the team lit it up in pre-season and is just having a rough patch. Some people think this is the level of the team, some think it will get better, we will see who right very soon.

Very soon, how so? You do know playoffs don't start for 6 or 7 months and is a very long season with many games before that; but rest of post is logical.

 

Galchenyuk lined up on 4th line in practice, he should be on the 5th the way he has started the season.

Pacioretty - Drouin - Lehkonen
Byron - Plekanec - Gallagher
Hudon - Danault - Shaw
Galchenyuk - Mitchell - Hemsky
De La Rose

Edited by DON
add practice lines

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xXx..CK..xXx    146
5 hours ago, DON said:

Yes it does. A team that outshoots other teams consistently wins more, that one isn't rocket science or a goofy useless fancy stat.

It's actually a lot closer to 50/50 if not more common for the team who gets outshot to win games. Teams that are losing during the game tend to need to score goals and therefore start shooting more while the leading team focuses more on protecting the lead. 

 

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=teamsummary&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,wins

 

See the standings & the Shot For/Shots Against columns

 

6 out of the top 10 teams get outshot which is no different than the bottom 10 seeds. When you look at the 10 teams who are undefeated, 7 of them average more shots against.

 

Of course, in times when our goalie will need to stand on their head for us, fans will complain as well.

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DON    27
1 hour ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

It's actually a lot closer to 50/50 if not more common for the team who gets outshot to win games. Teams that are losing during the game tend to need to score goals and therefore start shooting more while the leading team focuses more on protecting the lead. 

 

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=teamsummary&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,wins

 

See the standings & the Shot For/Shots Against columns

 

6 out of the top 10 teams get outshot which is no different than the bottom 10 seeds. When you look at the 10 teams who are undefeated, 7 of them average more shots against.

 

Of course, in times when our goalie will need to stand on their head for us, fans will complain as well.

Sorry to say, you are dead wrong sir.

 

Last year who led in outshooting teams... Caps and how did they do in Win Loss record? and teams at the bottom...Aves/Sabres/Arizona...enough said. Bottom feeders are low shooting and vice versa, which kinda seems common sense dosent it.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=outshootoutshotby&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=winsOutshotOpponent 

 

That is why Commandant is correct and if Habs keep outshooting opponent they will win more than lose over a season, not a 4 game snapshot.

Edited by DON
2nd thought

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DON    27
1 hour ago, Stogey24 said:

BUT; Emelin looked OK beside Weber and Komisarik looked good beside Markov, so don't get too carried away and look at 4 games stats to mean much, but no question he is looking good and not been exposed or made too many rookie gaffs.

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sim.on    32

I don't see why they bother putting Galchenyuk on the 4th line?

If he is ever going to be successful it's not there.

If you're trying to send him a message why not just put him in the press box?

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Link67    108

It is literally impossible to continue out-shooting opponents, out-chancing them, and continuing to fire blanks game after game.

 

This looks more to me like a mental hurdle, across many planes on this team, I see a lot of good things without the results, and I am not saying that in a Therrien way. Were getting up the ice, we're pressuring, creating opportunities, and not getting the goals. We can go on until we're blue in the face about Puck Moving Dmen, but the straight truth is, you can't generate the shots and chances we are generating without being able to transition the puck from your zone to theirs.

 

What we are seeing is a team playing well, dominating stretches of the games they have played except 1, and ultimately seeing the opposition score opportunistically while we are literally snake bit. What we are seeing is the Media and Fans a like, already judging this team based on 4 games out of 82. Now imagine if you take some of the best teams in the league the last 3 or 4 years, grabbed a sample size of their worst 5 game stretch during the season, and judged them as a team for it. How wrong do you think that judgment would be for all those teams I wonder?

 

In what world is it even logical to make a judgment on a team after 4 games, in what world is it not Lunacy to shout abandon ship after a 4 game sample for any Hockey Club? This team could literally bust out of the pathetic statistical anomaly they find themselves in as pertaining to shots, scoring chances, and goals scored. We can open the flood gates suddenly, Price can suddenly steal a game or 2, and before you know it, we could easily end up back over .500 in less than 2 weeks and all this squaking about rebuilds and talentless rosters is exactly that, a whole lot of squaking and feathers flying, but not a whole lot of sense.

 

It is way too early folks, take an advil and give it 2 months, then we can see what we really have to work with here. Even Chicago managed to look like the worst team in the league for a 4 game stretch last season...

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xXx..CK..xXx    146
1 hour ago, DON said:

Sorry to say, you are dead wrong sir.

 

Last year who led in outshooting teams... Caps and how did they do in Win Loss record? and teams at the bottom...Aves/Sabres/Arizona...enough said. Bottom feeders are low shooting and vice versa, which kinda seems common sense dosent it.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=outshootoutshotby&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=winsOutshotOpponent 

 

That is why Commandant is correct and if Habs keep outshooting opponent they will win more than lose over a season, not a 4 game snapshot.

I wouldn't say I'm dead wrong based on that chart nor was Commandant saying that the Habs will start winning. The only thing he said is that we can't continue to score 1 goal. It says nothing about the defensive side of things and how we're letting in an average of over 3 goals per game. We will undoubtedly increase our average goals per game, but it will have to

be by a substantial amount.

 

The graph you showed paints a 50/50 picture again. The better teams in the league win more often than not when they get outshot as well. Furthermore, 4 teams out of the top 10 in terms of shots per game last season did not make the playoffs. 

 

I'm not saying it's a smart strategy to get outshot by your opponent, nor am I saying that outshooting the opponent doesn't lead to wins a hefty amount of the time but it's far from black and white.

 

Here is another article I've found discussing this but there are a few others, including more recent ones.

 

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/paradigm-shift-the-evolving-relationship-between-outshooting-and-winning

 

"Buried on the team stats pages of NHL.com is a nifty function that shows the W-L-T-O record of NHL teams when outshooting their opposition and when being outshot. It dates back to 1997, and I have actively followed it for the last several years as a possible trend-setter. It’s especially interesting given how shots (and attempted shots) for and against have become a staple of advanced statistics on the individual side. What good is outshooting the other guys if it doesn’t help you win games?

 

The short answer is that it used to help win games. Not a whole huge amount, and not for all teams – the Edmonton Oilers were a notable exception that had a better record when being outshot, year after year – but on a league-wide basis it was, and is, measurable. The correlation used to be a weakly positive one, but no longer. From 1997-2009, teams that outshot their opponents won between 52% and 56% of decided games, every single year. In 2009-10 that changed to where the outshot team took a slight majority of the points, and in 2010-11 that became a full-blown trend. Duscounting the 45 games in which shots were dead even, in the other 1185 matches, the team that was outshot won 627 of them, the outshooting team just 558. Some “advantage”."

 

 

 

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xXx..CK..xXx    146

As for all this talk about it being 4 games in, that's only an argument that comes from people who have an optimistic view in regards to fandom. Sure some people are judging things after only 4 games but others are reiterating things that were already "predicted" to happen prior to the season. 

 

I've been on the other side before as well. Actually, I've always been on the other side.  I've even stated that we will need 20-40 games before we should even consider making moves. Patience is a virtue. With that being said, in this scenario I find those who are stating that it's only been 4 games as being blinded from the truth. It's clear as day that the squad has some deficiencies and it was clear as day after our off season didn't go to plan. Bergevin did not want both Radulov and Markov gone and yet that's exactly what happened.

 

How anyone can expect that to not have an impact on the potential of the squad is beyond d me.

 

I do agree that the team actually played well in our last game against Chicago. I really did like the effort we put forth and we had some decent scoring chances. To those expecting some magic differnence since it's only been 4 games, however, that difference will only come from either an acquisition or Julien's systems being adjusted, better interpreted, and becoming more instinctual to the players. Outside of that, the team as it is cannot compete for a cup.

 

The team will get better throughout the regular season but once again those will be for the reasons stated. If we can acquire an effective missing piece to the puzzle, great. As for the team "that has only played 4 games", what you've seen is what you'll get.

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Stogey24    255
6 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

As for all this talk about it being 4 games in, that's only an argument that comes from people who have an optimistic view in regards to fandom. Sure some people are judging things after only 4 games but others are reiterating things that were already "predicted" to happen prior to the season. 

 

I've on the side before and even stated that we will need 20-40 games before we should even consider making moves. Patience is a virtue. With that being said, in this scenario I find those who are stating that it's only been 4 games as being blinded from the truth. It's clear as day that the squad has some deficiencies and it was clear as day after our off season didn't go to plan. Bergevin did not want both Radulov and Marko's gone and yet that's exactly what happened.

 

How anyone can expect that to not have an impact on the potential of the squad is beyond d me.

 

I do agree that the team actually played well in our last game against Chicago. I really did like the effort we put forth and we had some decent scoring chances. To those expecting some magic differnence since it's only been 4 games, however, that difference will only come from either an acquisition or Julien's systems being adjusted, better interpreted, and becoming more instinctual to the players. Outside of that, the team as it is cannot compete for a cup.

 

The team will get better throughout the regular season but once again those will be for the reasons stated. If we can acquire an effective missing piece to the puzzle, great. As for

the team "that has only played 4 games", what you've seen is what you'll get.

It's been 6 years. If it was 4 games into Bergevin's tenure, I would get people defending this team, but this shit is nothing new. WE CANT BURY THE PUCK. If price isn't other worldly, this is a fringe hockey team  

 

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DON    27
1 hour ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I wouldn't say I'm dead wrong based on that chart nor was Commandant saying that the Habs will start winning. The only thing he said is that we can't continue to score 1 goal. It says nothing about the defensive side of things and how we're letting in an average of over 3 goals per game. We will undoubtedly increase our average goals per game, but it will have to

be by a substantial amount.

 

The graph you showed paints a 50/50 picture again. The better teams in the league win more often than not when they get outshot as well. Furthermore, 4 teams out of the top 10 in terms of shots per game last season did not make the playoffs. 

 

I'm not saying it's a smart strategy to get outshot by your opponent, nor am I saying that outshooting the opponent doesn't lead to wins a hefty amount of the time but it's far from black and white.

You use an average after 4 games, not sure any statistician would put much stock in that. Also, Strait played too many games (more than none was too many) and Benn couldn't of played any worse, so am not too worried about the defense improving. But, agree the forward group needs to finish and again likely cant get any worse.

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Link67    108
4 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

As for all this talk about it being 4 games in, that's only an argument that comes from people who have an optimistic view in regards to fandom. Sure some people are judging things after only 4 games but others are reiterating things that were already "predicted" to happen prior to the season. 

 

I've been on the other side before as well. Actually, I've always been on the other side.  I've even stated that we will need 20-40 games before we should even consider making moves. Patience is a virtue. With that being said, in this scenario I find those who are stating that it's only been 4 games as being blinded from the truth. It's clear as day that the squad has some deficiencies and it was clear as day after our off season didn't go to plan. Bergevin did not want both Radulov and Markov gone and yet that's exactly what happened.

 

How anyone can expect that to not have an impact on the potential of the squad is beyond d me.

 

I do agree that the team actually played well in our last game against Chicago. I really did like the effort we put forth and we had some decent scoring chances. To those expecting some magic differnence since it's only been 4 games, however, that difference will only come from either an acquisition or Julien's systems being adjusted, better interpreted, and becoming more instinctual to the players. Outside of that, the team as it is cannot compete for a cup.

 

The team will get better throughout the regular season but once again those will be for the reasons stated. If we can acquire an effective missing piece to the puzzle, great. As for the team "that has only played 4 games", what you've seen is what you'll get.

 

I agree that it is certainly not a cup contender as it stands right now, and that is a problem. I am simply saying it is also not likely as bad as the results lately, and 1 goal per game offense, that 4 games is really just a silly sample size that can hold no real bearing, predictions or doomsday prophecies considered.

 

If it is November 30th and the problems persist, the scoring is a dried up well, and the record hasn't gotten any better, then there would be more logic and less panic behind this crisis movement. It would be enough games, enough time, for this team show what it really has to offer, getting all worked up after 4 games, trying to act like you've seen enough, tear it all down, is illogical, and an overreaction.

 

 

 

 

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Commandant    610
On 10/10/2017 at 10:27 PM, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Drouin is an exciting player, especially on the PP. Whether he is really the guy who can drive the bus offensively is much harder to discern.

 

But it's very hard to believe in this group, which does indeed look to be worse than last year's - and last year's was manifestly inadequate.

 

Our GM has transparently failed to build on the strong core he inherited. He's garbage.

 

How long should we give this team to turn it around before moves need to be made? 10 more games? What say you - ?

 

The team is shooting 2.5%... an unsustainably low number... while dominating every possession stat. 

 

The last three goalies faced were Crawford, lundqvist and holtby. 


I think we really should not overreact here. 

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Commandant    610
29 minutes ago, Link67 said:

 

I agree that it is certainly not a cup contender as it stands right now, and that is a problem. I am simply saying it is also not likely as bad as the results lately, and 1 goal per game offense, that 4 games is really just a silly sample size that can hold no real bearing, predictions or doomsday prophecies considered.

 

If it is November 30th and the problems persist, the scoring is a dried up well, and the record hasn't gotten any better, then there would be more logic and less panic behind this crisis movement. It would be enough games, enough time, for this team show what it really has to offer, getting all worked up after 4 games, trying to act like you've seen enough, tear it all down, is illogical, and an overreaction.

 

 

100% correct. 

The Habs have a 912 PDO right now.   That is worst in the NHL by a mile.   The Avs had a 966 last year and that was the worst in the NHL in quite some time... oh and they didn't have good goaltending... we can count on Price being good on the SV% side of PDO.... so there is no way this is sustainable. 

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