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Trizzak

Playoffs or bust?

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Worm    1

Clutch is a myth at this level. 

 

If it was not it would mean that playoff performers or late game performers are just lazy the rest of the time. 

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Metallica    1
12 minutes ago, Worm said:

Clutch is a myth at this level. 

 

If it was not it would mean that playoff performers or late game performers are just lazy the rest of the time. 

I think that some are, they don't play as hard in the reg season as they do once playoffs come around.

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Commandant    633
19 minutes ago, Metallica said:

 

I agree that maybe a 3rd or 4th line players can get lucky on a playoff run.

 

But if you look at Roy number's in the playoffs there better then in the reg season, Thats clutch.

 

 

 

They are not really better.... not when you consider that all goalies do slightly better in playoffs because the refs call less penalties and less powerplays means less offence.

Roy is a tremendous goalie.  He was also tremendous in the regular season, with many NHL records and vezina trophies to his name.  

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Commandant    633
6 minutes ago, Metallica said:

I think that some are, they don't play as hard in the reg season as they do once playoffs come around.

 

So what you are saying is that the players you admire as clutch, are really just guys who are lazy in the regular season?

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DON    37
40 minutes ago, Worm said:

Clutch is a myth at this level. 

 

If it was not it would mean that playoff performers or late game performers are just lazy the rest of the time. 

One way to look at it, welcome sir.

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Metallica    1
23 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

So what you are saying is that the players you admire as clutch, are really just guys who are lazy in the regular season?

I wouldn't say lazy, more like they do just enough to get to the playoffs then hit another level once playoffs start.

 

Lazy are the players that just have a big year at the end of there contracts, in hopes of cashing in on a big deal when they become a ufa.

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Metallica    1
31 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

They are not really better.... not when you consider that all goalies do slightly better in playoffs because the refs call less penalties and less powerplays means less offence.

Roy is a tremendous goalie.  He was also tremendous in the regular season, with many NHL records and vezina trophies to his name.  

What makes Roy a clutch player is his 2 playoff mvps on 2 different teams and his 4 cups, with 2 different teams. If that's not a definition of clutch performer's I don't know what is.

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I have huge respect for Commandant and his analytical skills, but I have to say that I'm closer to the "Metallica" side of the argument on this one. Some players do seem to raise their game in the clutch; others don't so much wilt, as continue to do as they did during the season, with diminishing results due to the heightened checking and adjustments. Saku Koivu is a great example of a guy who always seemed to bring his very best game when it counted. He schooled Joe Thronton with broken ribs FFS. Roy was transformed and transcendent in the '86 and '93 playoffs. Those are the two that leap to mind, but there are others (e.g., Subban).  On this issue, I'm going with the "eye test."

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hab29RETIRED    175
16 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I have huge respect for Commandant and his analytical skills, but I have to say that I'm closer to the "Metallica" side of the argument on this one. Some players do seem to raise their game in the clutch; others don't so much wilt, as continue to do as they did during the season, with diminishing results due to the heightened checking and adjustments. Saku Koivu is a great example of a guy who always seemed to bring his very best game when it counted. He schooled Joe Thronton with broken ribs FFS. Roy was transformed and transcendent in the '86 and '93 playoffs. Those are the two that leap to mind, but there are others (e.g., Subban).  On this issue, I'm going with the "eye test."

Claude Lemieux was clutch

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Helmethead    52
5 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Claude Lemieux was clutch

 

Damn right he was!!!

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Metallica    1
6 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Claude Lemieux was clutch

Man the 90's do I ever miss that brand of hockey.

Edited by Metallica

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Trizzak    486
25 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Claude Lemieux was clutch

 

Daniel Briere was clutch.

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Commandant    633
1 hour ago, Metallica said:

I wouldn't say lazy, more like they do just enough to get to the playoffs then hit another level once playoffs start.

 

Lazy are the players that just have a big year at the end of there contracts, in hopes of cashing in on a big deal when they become a ufa.

 

Another myth.

 

About half the players in the NHL have a better season when they have 2 years left on their contract than they do with one year left.  Showing that its pretty much luck if you have a bigger year in your last year, than second last year of a 2+ year contract.

We just believe the myth that players try harder in their contract years. 

This is the NHL.  You don't survive if you don't give 100%, yet you keep repeating these myths. 

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Commandant    633
1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Claude Lemieux was clutch

 

Career PPG is identical to his Career Playoff PPG. 

Made the playoffs 18 times in his career.

 

In 9 of those seasons in his career his regular season PPG was higher than his playoff PPG. 

In the other 9 seasons in his career his playoff PPG was higher than his regular season PPG. 

 

 

Claude Lemieux was a good hockey player.  But the legend of his clutchness is a myth. 

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Commandant    633
1 hour ago, Metallica said:

What makes Roy a clutch player is his 2 playoff mvps on 2 different teams and his 4 cups, with 2 different teams. If that's not a definition of clutch performer's I don't know what is.

 

Thats the definition of a great player who has multiple Regular season Vezina Trophies and NHL records. 

 

He was a great goalie... Period. 

 

What you call clutch cause he won in the playoffs, I simply say is the sign of greatness, cause he was also a dominant regular season goalie. 

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Commandant    633
58 minutes ago, Trizzak said:

 

Daniel Briere was clutch.

 

This is actually the closest argument to someone who shows clutch characteristics. 

However, because there are so few players who have his career stats for playoffs and regular season.... its also explained away as random statistical noise, and not evidence of the existence of clutch NHL players. 

If there was such a thing as clutch, you'd expect the number of players who are clutch to exceed the numbers we expect to see based on statistical noise. 

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36 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Career PPG is identical to his Career Playoff PPG. 

 

Clutch really means your playoff numbers stay the same or are better than your regular season numbers. Look at most player stats and their points per playoff game are less than regular season. The fact Claude Lemieux had identical numbers and won a playoff MVP when there's no way he'd ever win regular season MVP is a big deal. Same with Justin Williams. Nieuwendyk winning over Hasek is an embarrassment the league will have to live with forever.

 

But for the most part you are right. We've mostly created narratives. The best playoff performers are still usually the best players in hockey.

 

That said, some players do have it. Nothing can really explain it. Just take Mike Cammalleri. I don't care what his average ends up being. He twice led the league in playoff scoring as a Hab and then the team was eliminated. For those two years, he became better than he was on average.

 

It's just not a thing as people claim it to be. Like all the myths about role players.

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Commandant    633
14 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

Clutch really means your playoff numbers stay the same or are better than your regular season numbers. Look at most player stats and their points per playoff game are less than regular season. The fact Claude Lemieux had identical numbers and won a playoff MVP when there's no way he'd ever win regular season MVP is a big deal. Same with Justin Williams. Nieuwendyk winning over Hasek is an embarrassment the league will have to live with forever.

 

But for the most part you are right. We've mostly created narratives. The best playoff performers are still usually the best players in hockey.

 

That said, some players do have it. Nothing can really explain it. Just take Mike Cammalleri. I don't care what his average ends up being. He twice led the league in playoff scoring as a Hab and then the team was eliminated. For those two years, he became better than he was on average.

 

It's just not a thing as people claim it to be. Like all the myths about role players.

 

Cammalleri was a streaky scorer.  For two years he hit hot streaks during the playoffs.  

 

In 2008-09 when he was with Calgary he didn't hit a hot streak in the playoffs.

 

It would be interesting if he made the playoffs in any other year in his career, to see if its more than that.  However, I suspect like every other streaky scorer, he is unable to control when those streaks happen. 

I mean, If he could, he'd never go cold. 

 

As for Lemieux and williams.... avoiding the small drop that most players have isn't clutch, its just statistical noise. 

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xXx..CK..xXx    160

Clutch doesn't even have to be a comparison between regular season and playoff

statistics. One can be clutch in the regular season, as well as the playoffs. 

 

Crosby's clutch regardless of his stats and I didn't think it was a coincidence that he scored the game winner in overtime when Canada beat the USA in the Vancouver Olympic final. 

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Commandant    633
3 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Clutch doesn't even have to be a comparison between regular season and playoff

statistics. One can be clutch in the regular season, as well as the playoffs. 

 

Crosby's clutch regardless of his stats and I didn't think it was a coincidence that he scored the game winner in overtime when Canada beat the USA in the Vancouver Olympic final. 

 

Crosby is great

 

He's the best player in the game.   He wins MVPs, Scoring Titles, every prize in the game. 

 

Anytime he is on the ice, he's a threat to score.  

He's the biggest threat to score in the Olympics and he's also the biggest  threat to score in game 25 of the regular season. 

 

That's different than being clutch. 

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Commandant    633

These are the two important quotes. 

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/3/clutch-nhl-playoff-big-game-performers

1

 

The number of people whose performance improves or declines in the playoffs is almost exactly what we would expect from simple variance over the small playoff sample sizes. It is thus hard to argue that clutch talent is a significant factor in playoff performance, or that people who have had improved outcomes in the playoffs should be expected to continue to do so.


 

2

"Moreover, even if there were some players who genuinely performed better in the playoffs than in the regular season, I am not sure this would be something we should celebrate. If a player really does improve his scoring skill in the playoffs, there are only two possible conclusions:

 

  • Everyone else chokes under pressure and performs worse, but the pressure doesn't bother him and he maintains his normal skill level. Since his opponents' play is declining, he scores more points. However, if this were the case, we would almost certainly not see the results above -- we would expect to see a lot more players outperforming expectations if all it took was not choking.
     
  • He performs at less than his full ability during the regular season, then turns it on for the playoffs. Is coasting during the regular season really something to celebrate? Aren't the players who give their all in every game more noble than the ones who wait until they think a game is worthy of their full effort?"

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Commandant    633

Here is the other thing.

 

Studies in Baseball show there is no such thing as a clutch player. 

 

Studies in Basketball show the same.

 

No one has really done the NFL studies cause 16 game regular seasons and 3 game playoffs, combined with the shortest average career of any sport makes such a study impossible.  The sample size is too small. 


Studies in soccer though, have shown the same. 

 

So tell me, are all these studies wrong.... or is hockey somehow different from these other sports that it allows for clutch play at the pro level while others dont?

 

 

Its not different. 

 

The reality is that if you are an elite level athlete.  If you are the one in a million who makes the NHL, or MLB, or the NBA, you have already passed the "clutch" test just to get there. 

Just to make those leagues, you need to perform when the pressure is on.  Training camp when you are trying to make the team.... junior/college hockey when scouts are in the stands.... competing in the playoffs in those leagues... you've already shown you can handle pressure and elevate your game.  And if you couldn't, you wouldn't be a pro. 

 

If you want to believe players in the NHL elevate in the playoffs... sure... fine.  But the thing is Every Player is capable of elevating.  IF they were a choke artist, they wouldn't be in the league.  They would have choked when their career was on the line at an earlier point.  So every NHLer is capable of elevating... and if we are all elevating, then you are still in the same position you were in before hand. 

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Metallica    1

There's a reason why not everyone in sports in any league make the same amount of money. The elite players get paid the most money because they are clutch players. When the game is on the line your best players are your clutch players.

 

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Commandant    633
3 minutes ago, Metallica said:

There's a reason why not everyone in sports in any league make the same amount of money. The elite players get paid the most money because they are clutch players. When the game is on the line your best players are your clutch players.

 

 

No... Elite players get paid more cause they are elite. 

 

Sidney Crosby is a better player than Jacob de la Rose and is paid as such. 

 

He is a better player in game 1 of the regular season, in game 27 of the regular season and in the playoffs. 

 

Being a better player is not being clutch. 

 

 

My saying that clutch is a myth doesn't mean that i think every player is the same... this is a ridiculous argument that you have made.  A total strawman. 

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