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Commandant

A Plan for the Remainder of the Season, including the Deadline

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Commandant    716
14 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Good topic Commandant.

 

My preferences are not popular, but here they are:

i would definitely move Pleks but try to create some bidding from a couple of teams

I am fed up with Petry more than Alzner, so I would shop him around

 

I really believe that one of (Gallagher, A.Shaw, Lehkonen, Hudon, Carr, Byron) should be moved. Maybe two. For crying out loud: this organization has to evaluate and pick from these underweight & fightsty wingers. Specially with Sherbak ready to graduate next year

 

I would not move Pacioretty, but I would remove the C after the season. 

 

Thank gives  a handful of players that can be shipped out for picks and maybe packaged for an upgrade on Morrow as a depth defence. 

===

I think the best path forward is to keep the core and to build through the draft by getting as many high picks as possible. The key signings to help next year should come at the free agency deadline

 

i do not think the Habs will get much at the trade deadline 

 

===

oh, of course you would need to get rid of Sly and hire a coach that can develop prospects 

 

I don't think any of that is unpopular. 

 

Alzner is near untradeable. 

personally i'd keep petry, but if the price and package was right I could move him. 

i put Byron as the winger I'd move, because i think the value is highest and his contract situation and age, but sure, move some wingers. 

 

I really can't argue with that plan. 

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Call it a retool or a rebuild, but this organization needs Top 10 picks in 2018/2019/2020 along with some 2nd round picks in the 32-40 range to grab guys that fall. That's a minimum by the way. They need those picks and those players so 2021 they actually have a future.

 

If this club isn't deep in for the Byfield/Lafreniere 2020 draft, you can pretty much write off the next decade.

 

 

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alfredoh2009    29

The

8 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

I don't think any of that is unpopular. 

 

Alzner is near untradeable. 

personally i'd keep petry, but if the price and package was right I could move him. 

i put Byron as the winger I'd move, because i think the value is highest and his contract situation and age, but sure, move some wingers. 

 

I really can't argue with that plan. 

Well, it hinges on trusting Bergevin and Timmins. If the Preds GM got such high praise fir last year's run after many disappointing years. And if the Bruins show so much promise now after performing so poorly before CJ was fired... I think we can let MB and TT show how they can get us out of the situation they put us in . 

That is unpopular. I think the media is having a field day pummelling the Habs management right now: but the players have not stepped up!

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alfredoh2009    29
5 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

Call it a retool or a rebuild, but this organization needs Top 10 picks in 2018/2019/2020 along with some 2nd round picks in the 32-40 range to grab guys that fall. That's a minimum by the way. They need those picks and those players so 2021 they actually have a future.

 

If this club isn't deep in for the Byfield/Lafreniere 2020 draft, you can pretty much write off the next decade.

 

 

100% agreed!

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Commandant    716

 

15 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

Call it a retool or a rebuild, but this organization needs Top 10 picks in 2018/2019/2020 along with some 2nd round picks in the 32-40 range to grab guys that fall. That's a minimum by the way. They need those picks and those players so 2021 they actually have a future.

 

If this club isn't deep in for the Byfield/Lafreniere 2020 draft, you can pretty much write off the next decade.

 

 

 


Hughes 2019. 

 

That's your answer to Auston Matthews. 

 

He's better than Lafreniere IMO.

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8 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 


Hughes 2019. 

 

That's your answer to Auston Matthews. 

 

He's better than Lafreniere IMO.

 

Byfield is world's better than Lafreniere which is why I mentioned him as well. Friend of mine has seen him play. Says he's extraordinary at 15.

 

Heck I'll take Jack too.

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Commandant    716

I'll have to take your word for it. I haven't seen Byfield. 

 

Numbers are stellar. 

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I'm going by second hand news as well but he saw him at a game in December and said he looked like he was using cheat codes.

 

Heard great things about Drysdale as well.

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illWill    473

I would be okay with trading anybody on this roster, the composition is terrible and needs a change. Realistically there will likely only be a few sell offs this season. The UFA's should all go, and if a deal involving Pacioretty or Galchenyuk happened it would have to blow our socks off to be made. 

 

I'd like to see Julien experiment with a different philosophy and to give certain players more ice time and opportunity. 

 

I'd also like to wake up and for this all to be a dream. 

 

 

 

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Link67    131

A very interesting article, It really just sucks the thoughts right out of my head on most points, most notably who should be traded and who should be kept until the offer you can't refuse comes along.

 

Plekanec is, imo, the easy chip on the table, it is almost written in stone that he is going to be moved for assets this deadline. While Jerabek and Deslaurier are UFA's I am not sure they are worth moving unless they are asking for ridiculous salaries, they are part of an age group that we should be comfortable moving forward with in a retool scenario. Signed assets like Pacioretty and Byron and where things get tricky, they have fantastic contracts that would be a bonus for any team who has them, they carry with them great value for trade or great value to keep on the team. The return really is the key here, the team is in DIRE need of a top 6 Center and a top 4 PMD, trading either of those assets for anything less than something that includes one of those needs would be ridiculous. If we don't have the chance to properly draft players suited for these positions, the players who carry great value on this team must only be used as trading chips to that end. I don't mind some very solid prospects who can blossom into those roles effectively any less than young players beginning to establish themselves at the NHL level who are under 26. We are, as the article suggests, in no rush to trade assets like Pacioretty or Byron, if we stand firm on our needs, and make a deal only when the right package containing the right type of players presents itself, we can only come out of it winners. If we enter the situation in fire sale mode, acting like if we don't hurl everything and anything not nailed down to the ship overboard we are failing, then that is exactly when we will fail. There is no greater mistake in the coming situation, then not getting the proper and needed return for our valuable assets, that mistake would be more detrimental to the plan to retool than anything else we could do at this point, not getting a great return for a rental would pale in comparison. 

 

Overall a very good piece that follows very closely with my own train of thought

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Yes...the reason I haven't engaged with this thread is that Ben's piece is so thoughtful and sensible, I find little to disagree with or add to! One thing I really enjoyed were the reflections on Byron. I for one tend to think of him as younger than he is; and while he is one of my favourite players on this pathetic crew, he's a classic case of a guy whose game will absolutely disintegrate when he loses a step. Ideally, I think, we'd keep him for one more year then flip him at the deadline. He could really add a lot to a contender IMHO, playing the role of 'secret weapon' who scores unexpected, morale-crushing goals.

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59 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Yes...the reason I haven't engaged with this thread is that Ben's piece is so thoughtful and sensible, I find little to disagree with or add to! One thing I really enjoyed were the reflections on Byron. I for one tend to think of him as younger than he is; and while he is one of my favourite players on this pathetic crew, he's a classic case of a guy whose game will absolutely disintegrate when he loses a step. Ideally, I think, we'd keep him for one more year then flip him at the deadline. He could really add a lot to a contender IMHO, playing the role of 'secret weapon' who scores unexpected, morale-crushing goals.

 

Agreed all around.

a friend pointed out return on investment for Byron this year would be sick from an investment standpoint. 

Could be same thing for Benn too.

some teams will over pay for these guys this year in hopes of making a push and there is no reason to hold them as their return will most likely onmy diminish. 

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Commandant    716
1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Yes...the reason I haven't engaged with this thread is that Ben's piece is so thoughtful and sensible, I find little to disagree with or add to! One thing I really enjoyed were the reflections on Byron. I for one tend to think of him as younger than he is; and while he is one of my favourite players on this pathetic crew, he's a classic case of a guy whose game will absolutely disintegrate when he loses a step. Ideally, I think, we'd keep him for one more year then flip him at the deadline. He could really add a lot to a contender IMHO, playing the role of 'secret weapon' who scores unexpected, morale-crushing goals.

 

I'm fine with keeping Byron and flipping him next year. 

I just think it needs to be explored now.  

 

Would a contender pay a premium now, knowing that they get him for 2 playoff runs.  On top of that, there are teams that are constantly capped out and looking for space in the summer.  If a contender with cap issues (Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh, St. Louis) looks at him as a top 6 forward for next season at 1.167 million, helping to solve their cap issues and keep the team together one more year... would they pay a premium for it?

If there is no deal to be made? sure, hold him and wait.

But I want to know if someone is willing to overpay for him now.

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If only the Penguins had some form of good assets, they'd be a perfect team to trade with. We could easily take Hagelin off their hands to make the return even better, but they are depleted prospect wise and their young kids are not very exciting to me.

 

Chicago... they are interesting. Schmaltz, Duclair, DeBrincat, Hayden, all very interesting young guys for a return. Hayden and Duclair and I'd probably send Byron to Chicago with no draft picks needed back. Schmaltz is likely way too expensive and Chicago likely feels burned after the Weise/Danault deal.

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Commandant    716

I wouldn't do it for Hayden and Duclair.

At Byron's contract, i want a real premium return.  At least a top prospect... or a first + B prospect.

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5 minutes ago, Commandant said:

I wouldn't do it for Hayden and Duclair.

At Byron's contract, i want a real premium return.  At least a top prospect... or a first + B prospect.

 

And if you don't get it, you're risking him next year having a deflated shooting percentage and getting next to nothing in his UFA year.

 

Byron is great value, and you can probably convince a few teams to go hard on him, but he probably isn't getting a better return than Maroon for one year.

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Commandant    716
Just now, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

And if you don't get it, you're risking him next year having a deflated shooting percentage and getting next to nothing in his UFA year.

 

Byron is great value, and you can probably convince a few teams to go hard on him, but he probably isn't getting a better return than Maroon for one year.

 

Deflated shooting percentage?

 

Byron shot 23% last year

He's shooting 19% this year

He's shooting 21% in 188 games as a Hab

He's shot 18.5% in 325 games as an NHL player 

When a guy does two things that Byron does.... 1) use his speed to generate an absurd amount of breakaways. 2) takes virtually zero shots from further than 10 feet out from the net. 

It might just be possible to maintain this high shooting percentage.  He's done it for over 300 NHL games.  I don't think its a small sample size that is going to revert to the mean. 

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Habopotamus    19
1 hour ago, Commandant said:

I wouldn't do it for Hayden and Duclair.

At Byron's contract, i want a real premium return.  At least a top prospect... or a first + B prospect.

No g.m in their right mind is giving up their first rounder for Byron. 

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Commandant    716
2 hours ago, Habopotamus said:

No g.m in their right mind is giving up their first rounder for Byron. 

 

Disagree

 

A gm who is tight to the cap and sees byron as a piece for two playoff runs would and should.

 

We saw what gms were willing to do to keep their core together and stay under the cap in all.the trades with vegas last year.

 

That contract is real value.

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Metallica    2
46 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Disagree

 

A gm who is tight to the cap and sees byron as a piece for two playoff runs would and should.

 

We saw what gms were willing to do to keep their core together and stay under the cap in all.the trades with vegas last year.

 

That contract is real value.

I disagree also don't see any gm giving up a 1st for Byron maybe a 2nd pick but not a first. Byron on a playoff team would be a 3rd line guy not a top 6. 

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8 minutes ago, Metallica said:

I disagree also don't see any gm giving up a 1st for Byron maybe a 2nd pick but not a first. Byron on a playoff team would be a 3rd line guy not a top 6. 

 

Yeah, I have to agree...I can't see a team coughing up  1st either. A 2nd, sure.

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Peter Puck    5

I really like this article.   Saying sell, sell, sell, ...  is just silly and requires no thought.  We need to identify the players who we can bring back real value to the team.  Piling up a bunch of low round draft picks might be selling but I don't see it as helping the team significantly.

 

Great article with some well thought out arguments.

 

 

 

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Chris    2

Eller got 2 2nd rounders, 

 

I don't think a late 1st is too much for Byron for what he brings and the best contract in the league. 

 

I personally have Byron Danault and Shaw as a 3rd line next year. 

 

Assuming the habs Brass can get an actual top 6, with 2 top line centers. 

 

 

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I'm rooting for the Oilers and Canucks to go to OT tonight.. it's actually not that crazy for Montreal to finish 3rd last in the league.. They won't be passed by Buffalo or Arizona but every other team has a decent chance.

 

What is the odds of getting the first pick if you finish third last?

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