Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Meller93

2018 draft thread

Recommended Posts

Hughes is only in the conversation because of our need at left d. That’s not a wonderful reason for starting the conversation about drafting him.  I haven’t even seen it as a consensus that he is the best defenseman available, period, let alone the 3rd overall pick. 

 

Zadina and Tkachuk are in the conversation because they are generally viewed as the consensus 3rd and 4th picks. It’s like we’re saying “Shucks, Zadina isn’t as good as Svechnikov. Let’s look elsewhere.” 

 

I fully accept that if someone else was on our radar, we should try to extract value from that pick and drop down. What I don’t envision is that we will drop down, nor that someone else should be on our radar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I'm no authority on prospects, but defencemen are almost always more valuable than forwards in my book. As Commandant noted, they drive the offence and manage the play at both ends of the ice. In other words, they're a bit like C in that their value is intrinsically higher than a W. So if there is little to separate Zadina from Hughes, then I'd go with Hughes, frankly.

Which is why I hated the Drouin trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Hughes is only in the conversation because of our need at left d. That’s not a wonderful reason for starting the conversation about drafting him.  I haven’t even seen it as a consensus that he is the best defenseman available, period, let alone the 3rd overall pick. 

 

Zadina and Tkachuk are in the conversation because they are generally viewed as the consensus 3rd and 4th picks. It’s like we’re saying “Shucks, Zadina isn’t as good as Svechnikov. Let’s look elsewhere.” 

 

I fully accept that if someone else was on our radar, we should try to extract value from that pick and drop down. What I don’t envision is that we will drop down, nor that someone else should be on our radar.

 

 

I disagree that he's only in the conversation because of our need.....   

 

I think you are massively underestimating him.

 

You keep talking about lists, but again, Carey Price was 10-15 on most lists in his draft year.  Doesn't mean anything if Timmins sees it differently.

 

You are convinced that Zadina is so much better than Hughes, but what do you base this strong conviction on?  Someone else's list? or your own viewings of the two?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

My scenario is based on wanting the team identifying one guy that it wants more than the others.  If it wants one guy, go ahead and take him.  No need to get cute to get a couple of other later picks. 

 

As our article says, players taken in the top 3 are significantly more valuable than adding some later picks in the NHL draft.  Trading down from this spot doesn't make sense.

If the org identifies one player they want, then just take him....   Even if they have Hughes and Wahlstrom the same, there is still value in taking Hughes and not trading down cause he fills the major organizational need that Wahlstrom doesn't. 

 http://lwosonhockey.ms.lastwordonsports.com/2018/05/30/draft-pick-value-charts/

 

 

Yeah I understand what your saying, I'm just saying we could make the pick for an organizational need from outside #3, so why not get the extra asset while still getting one of the players you want? If Ottawa is really high on Zadina and willing to part with 4 and 22nd, while we are really high on Hughes, why not make the pick we want to make anyway and collect the extra 22nd you otherwise wouldn't have if you just pick Hughes at #3 for instance.

 

Trading down from this spot does make sense, because a Player like Hughes or Kotkaniemi will not be taken at #3, unless it is by us. I don't believe leaving extra assets on the table from a deal, while still getting one of the 2 players anyway is the right move. Any pick in the top 40 could potentially blossom into an important NHL player, we have seen this scenario happen time and time again. The more chances we have to swing the bat in the top 40, the better the odds of hitting a home run. 

 

There is only a potential loss of assets if you pick Hughes or Kotkaniemi 3rd and keep status quo, there is only asset gains if you pick one of them 4th or 6th while acquiring some extra top 40 picks in the process. Whether we pick 3rd or 6th, it is nearly guaranteed one of the 2 are there, and very likely both.

 

So if we are picking for organizational need and skipping on Zadina, our options are

 

- Pick Hughes or Kotkaniemi 3rd and call it a day

- Pick Hughes of Kotkaniemi 4th or 6th while gaining more top 40 picks

 

Which option really looks like it make more sense?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think Ottawa will take Hughes, so like I said, I'm fine with trading with them. 

 

I just don't think you can go past Arizona and still guarantee to get your guy (if Hughes is your guy).

 

The extra picks are of course nice... but if you have ONE GUY, you have to make sure you get him.  An extra top 40 pick is not worth missing out on your guy (if you have one).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Commandant said:

I don't think Ottawa will take Hughes, so like I said, I'm fine with trading with them. 

 

I just don't think you can go past Arizona and still guarantee to get your guy (if Hughes is your guy).

 

The extra picks are of course nice... but if you have ONE GUY, you have to make sure you get him.  An extra top 40 pick is not worth missing out on your guy (if you have one).

 

 

Yeah I agree there, if you have 1 guy, and you are rigid on that, you can't 100% guarantee his availability unless you take him where you are.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From what I have heard Dobson could be one of the better D men going in the top 10. Some say he’s the second best defender behind Dahlin.

 

He is a right D but still.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Habs have let go of one of their scouts less than two weeks before the draft:

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

The Habs have let go of one of their scouts less than two weeks before the draft:

 

 

 

That seems very weird. I can only assume Ludzik ended up on the wrong side of too many pre-draft arguments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

I disagree that he's only in the conversation because of our need.....   

 

I think you are massively underestimating him.

 

You keep talking about lists, but again, Carey Price was 10-15 on most lists in his draft year.  Doesn't mean anything if Timmins sees it differently.

 

You are convinced that Zadina is so much better than Hughes, but what do you base this strong conviction on?  Someone else's list? or your own viewings of the two?

I’m basing it on what I’ve seen from Zadina as well as the fact that Hughes isn’t even the best defenseman on many people’s lists. I haven’t seen Hughes enough but the point is that considering he’s outside the top 6 on almost every guesstimate, as well as outside of the top 10 on some, I don’t see why Montreal’s scouting team’s vision would actually line up with Hughes  being the best player available any more than Zadina, Tkachuk or even some others in the bunch as well. The only reason I’ve seen is that you’ve noticed that he may actually be better than Zadina but I think what’s actually happening is that you are under-appreciating Zadina. “He’s only a little better than 4-7.” That’s still better.

 

Zadina is an average skater, agreed, but I think he deserves to be picked 3rd overall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

That seems very weird. I can only assume Ludzik ended up on the wrong side of too many pre-draft arguments.

 

 

I'm not surprised that changes are coming in the scouting department (I expect there will be more) but I thought we wouldn't see anything until after the draft.  The last thing a team wants is to let someone with knowledge of even some of their draft rankings (he mentioned in a later tweet he helped shape the Ontario list but not the overall) go.  If he gets scooped up by another team quickly, he could very easily give away some of Montreal's strategy.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As for my opinion that Hughes is only in the discussion because of our need, I mean that Dobson and Boqvist would be rumored to be options for the Habs if we were actually thinking of acquiring a defenseman and they weren’t right handed shots. Hughes is obviously going to be a good player but I don’t take comfort in the combination of him not being as highly touted as Zadina with the fact that he just so happens to be a left handed shot defender. People will likely salivate at that thought because of our issues of mobility on defense, but the Habs have the 3rd pick. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I’m basing it on what I’ve seen from Zadina as well as the fact that Hughes isn’t even the best defenseman on many people’s lists. I haven’t seen Hughes enough but the point is that considering he’s outside the top 6 on almost every guesstimate, as well as outside of the top 10 on some, I don’t see why Montreal’s scouting team’s vision would actually line up with Hughes  being the best player available any more than Zadina, Tkachuk or even some others in the bunch as well. The only reason I’ve seen is that you’ve noticed that he may actually be better than Zadina but I think what’s actually happening is that you are under-appreciating Zadina. “He’s only a little better than 4-7.” That’s still better.

 

Zadina is an average skater, agreed, but I think he deserves to be picked 3rd overall. 

 

So you havent seen hughes much but you are convinced that hes not close to zadina.

 

I have a tough time taking that opinion seriously.  

 

You have conviction but its based on nothingness.

 

I dont understand how someone can decide how good a hockey player is that they have never seen.  But not only that, you are actually convinced of it and have this strong conviction on it. It makes no sense to me.

  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

So you havent seen hughes much but you are convinced that hes not close to zadina.

 

I have a tough time taking that opinion seriously.  

 

You have conviction but its based on nothingness.

 

I dont understand how someone can decide how good a hockey player is that they have never seen.  But not only that, you are actually convinced of it and have this strong conviction on it. It makes no sense to me.

I’ve seen Hughes. But I’m basing it more on the fact that Zadina is a consensus 3/4 in over 50 places whereas Hughes has that potential on 2 out of the same 50 opinions. What makes us think the Habs scouting team’s view line up with those 4%? I have a good feeling about Zadina and there’s also nothing really wrong with me agreeing with the “experts”.

 

The only thing I can wrap my head around is that Hughes could potentially end up better than Zadina down the line. But considering one is a defenseman and the other is a forward, Zadina is going to have to turn out to be a complete bust for that to be the case.

 

I think Svechnikov is going to be another Ovechkin or Laine and we have the potential to pick the very next best forward. I see Zadina as being a little slow but I appreciate goal scorers with his release (and vision) just as much as you appreciate mobile defensemen with speed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want Kotkaniemi, maybe not with our 3rd overall but maybe through trading down or trading some assets like Pacs or something if he were to fall in the draft.

but I dont see him falling because he is best ranked C.

Could even see him being picked to early maybe by us just because of being that C.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Again the same consensus lists had Barkov outside the top 3, had puljujarvi ahead of dubois, had gilbert brule ahead of price, had blake wheeler in the 20s, had mark scheifele in the late teens.  Do you think those picks against ths consensus lists were mistakes? Im hindsight the consensus lists were wrong.  The teams that went against tge grain were right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Again the same consensus lists had Barkov outside the top 3, had puljujarvi ahead of dubois, had gilbert brule ahead of price, had blake wheeler in the 20s, had mark scheifele in the late teens.  Do you think those picks against ths consensus lists were mistakes? Im hindsight the consensus lists were wrong.  The teams that went against tge grain were right.

 

One thing is for sure. If you're a team, you have to go with your own internally-determined convictions about prospects. 'Consensus lists' be damned. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, see this quote is just not correct at all.  Zadina does not need to be a bust for a defenceman to be more valuable than a winger.

 

7 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

The only thing I can wrap my head around is that Hughes could potentially end up better than Zadina down the line. But considering one is a defenseman and the other is a forward, Zadina is going to have to turn out to be a complete bust for that to be the case.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Commandant said:

Yeah, see this quote is just not correct at all.  Zadina does not need to be a bust for a defenceman to be more valuable than a winger.

 

He has to be a bust for us to clearly state that picking Zadina was a mistake instead of Hughes.

 

It’s not about winger vs defenseman. It’s about the fact you won’t be able to compare their statistics due to a difference in position. If Hughes is a top 4 and Zadina is a top 6, it’s fine. If Hughes is a top pair and Zadina is a top 9, then Hughes should have been picked.

 

You keep stating that lists can be wrong but that completely ignores the fact how often they are accurate and it’s also just because of your personal view on the topic. My point is that I doubt the Habs have Hughes as their 3rd pick, simple as that. I also think Zadina is the right choice at 3. Time will tell who they pick. Time will tell how the players pan out. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Same head of scouting who selected Tinordi over Kuznetsov and Coyle. Same head of scouting who selected Fischer over Giroux and Berglund. Same head of scouting who wanted Marc Staal over Anze Kopitar.

 

You put a forward and defenceman in front of Timmins, he's taking the defenceman.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are many ways to compare a forward to a defenceman besides just pure points. Its done all the time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

He has to be a bust for us to clearly state that picking Zadina was a mistake instead of Hughes.

 

It’s not about winger vs defenseman. It’s about the fact you won’t be able to compare their statistics due to a difference in position. If Hughes is a top 4 and Zadina is a top 6, it’s fine. If Hughes is a top pair and Zadina is a top 9, then Hughes should have been picked.

 

You keep stating that lists can be wrong but that completely ignores the fact how often they are accurate and it’s also just because of your personal view on the topic. My point is that I doubt the Habs have Hughes as their 3rd pick, simple as that. I also think Zadina is the right choice at 3. Time will tell who they pick. Time will tell how the players pan out. 

 

 

The good thing in all this debate is there really isn't a catastrophically bad choice on the horizon, none of the kids being thrown around have a very good chance at all at being busts, we are merely knit picking who might be a slightly better NHL player at this point. Hughes could easily become a top pair LHD puck mover, while Zadina can easily become a 40+ goal scorer who gets his name in the mix for more than a few Maurice Richard Trophies. We should just be happy one of these players could be a part of our team in a few weeks, rather than splitting hairs wondering which one is the wrong choice.

 

However I will say that I agree going against the grain very often, against a large pool of opinions is a dangerous game. The same opinions of many, are often times more correct than the same opinions of a few, the mindset of everyone is wrong but me, the path I see only I see, just trust me. That is a very dangerous state of mind to carry, a mindset many Leaders in human history used to bring their own civilizations to ruin. Its fine to have something you strongly believe in and follow on it once in awhile against all other advice or opinions, but going against the grain should be done very sporadically, the law of average is not on that side of it at all. Take who wants to be a millionaire for instance, how many contestants on that show end up being right when they choose against the grain of the Ask the Audience lifeline, versus how many end up being right when they go with the choice from the audience?

 

If you took every very reputable pre-draft ranking group/site, and created a list that averages all their selections, and used that list, and all its many opinions, and blindly drafted the whole draft using only that list, it would undoubtedly have far more correct choices than wrong ones. The law of average is on your side at that point, THAT many expert opinions cannot be wrong about everything, going against the grain must always be a very calculated move, but once in awhile it can pay off huge. 

 

An open mind always sees the big picture more clearly, and I hope these guys go to the table in Dallas with an open mind, the immediate future of this team depends on this Draft being a big success.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Link67 said:

 the immediate future of this team depends on this Draft being a big success.

No, will be lucky if 1 from this draft even plays 1 game with Habs this coming season and unless has rookie of year-type season, that rookie will not be expected to be an impact player. 

Many picked in 2nd or 4th round will never play in NHL and the couple who do, will take several years to develop.

And given that drafting high school kids is a crap shoot to begin with, I think moves through trade and free agency by Bergevin in next few weeks will have huge impact on immediate future, compared to draft kids. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the pick in this case should be made based on the future make up of this team. As it stands right now, we don't need any wingers, we are growing them on trees. If Drouin sticks at center and Pacioretty is traded, then maybe you can justify picking Zadina. But we can't complain about the holes on this team and then at the same time complain about not filling them at the draft. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×