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Meller93

2018 draft thread

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I got it as Habs pick 4th, 35, 38, 57, 58, 66, 83, 94, 103 & 109.

Lottery and playoffs will change it up a bit but still like the odds of finding a NHLer or three in that group.

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34 minutes ago, DON said:

I got it as Habs pick 4th, 35, 38, 57, 58, 66, 83, 94, 103 & 109.

Lottery and playoffs will change it up a bit but still like the odds of finding a NHLer or three in that group.

Yea, we need three haha. A couple good ones too.

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When does the draft lottery take place?

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2 hours ago, revvvrob said:

When does the draft lottery take place?

in a few weeks

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I think lottery is on April 28

 

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Just for the hey of it, here are some recent 4th overall picks:

 

2011 Adam Larsson

2012 Griffin Reinhart

2013 Seth Jones

2014 Sam Bennett

2015 Mitch Marner

2016 Jesse Puljujarvi

 

Not a bad list at all. Of course, you don't have to be David Hume to understand that past doesn't necessarily predict future, but to the extent that the past is a guide, the Habs should come out of this smelling pretty rosy.

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On 2018-03-23 at 11:00 AM, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

As I recall, pretty much everyone and his dog was ecstatic we drafted Galchenyuk. It is much, much more reasonable to say that the Habs mismanaged his development as a C than to say that drafting him was a mistake.

Agreed! I feel like this administration (and the coaches) have messed up Chucky's development! True that Chucky didn't always help himself, but I can't help thinking that if he had been drafted by another team (and allowed to play at center these past 5 years) he'd be a much more productive player!

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47 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Just for the hey of it, here are some recent 4th overall picks:

 

2011 Adam Larsson

2012 Griffin Reinhart

2013 Seth Jones

2014 Sam Bennett

2015 Mitch Marner

2016 Jesse Puljujarvi

 

Not a bad list at all. Of course, you don't have to be David Hume to understand that past doesn't necessarily predict future, but to the extent that the past is a guide, the Habs should come out of this smelling pretty rosy.

 

Habs can pick anywhere from 1 to 7.  The chances of staying at 4 exactly are pretty low.  We will likely move.

 

The key is we cant be worse than 7.

 

I see a draft with 

 

1 generational prospect.

 

2 really good wingers.

 

5 in the next tier (4 d 1f) 

 

So not falling beyond 8 was a huge key for me.. and finishing 4th means at minimum...worst case scenario is all goes to crap in the lottery we will still have two excellent prospects to choose from.

 

Plus theres a chance we get into that top 3.

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2 hours ago, Commandant said:

Habs can pick anywhere from 1 to 7.  The chances of staying at 4 exactly are pretty low.  We will likely move.

 

I saw the odds somewhere, and we actually have the lowest chance to pick 4th than anywhere else. It's actually kind of funny. 

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16 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Habs can pick anywhere from 1 to 7.  The chances of staying at 4 exactly are pretty low.  We will likely move.

 

The key is we cant be worse than 7.

 

I see a draft with 

 

1 generational prospect.

 

2 really good wingers.

 

5 in the next tier (4 d 1f) 

 

So not falling beyond 8 was a huge key for me.. and finishing 4th means at minimum...worst case scenario is all goes to crap in the lottery we will still have two excellent prospects to choose from.

 

Plus theres a chance we get into that top 3.

Hughes Boqvist Bouchard Dobson and Wahlstrom on that list?

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5 minutes ago, Meller93 said:

Hughes Boqvist Bouchard Dobson and Wahlstrom on that list?

 

Hughes, Boqvist, Ty Smith, Dobson and Wahlstrom. 

 

I've got Tkachuk at 9, Bouchard at 10. 

 

Don't like Bouchard's defensive game or skating. 

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6 minutes ago, Meller93 said:

https://goo.gl/images/EVVbmS

 

Slightly different, but lotto odds are about the same as this

 

So basically a 1 in 3 chance of drafting top 4, and a 2 in 3 chance of drafting 5-7?

 

That sucks 

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6 minutes ago, illWill said:

 

So basically a 1 in 3 chance of drafting top 4, and a 2 in 3 chance of drafting 5-7?

 

That sucks 

The actual numbers are a little different, but it illustrates the number pretty closely, and yes, we aren’t likely to pick at #4 ironically hahah

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Basically we only pick at 4 if the bottom three teams, buffalo Ottawa and Arizona, all win the top three picks. Not particularly likely.

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12 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Hughes, Boqvist, Ty Smith, Dobson and Wahlstrom. 

 

I've got Tkachuk at 9, Bouchard at 10. 

 

Don't like Bouchard's defensive game or skating. 

Interesting. I can really see Hughes or Boqvist being a Hab. 

 

As to Bouchard, skating is a big deal for sure. Hence why Mete and Juulsen were able to stick. Great skaters. 

 

Some say Quinn Hughes is the best skater in the draft.

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Here are rhe real numbers.  The earlier chart wasnt far off.

 

DaWfXvvV4AElHEh.jpg:large

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Please please let us win the lottery... I need this after seeingmy swedish team lose and fail to qualify for play in the SHL next year and then the habs season down the drain....   seeing us drafting 6 or 7 would be so sad.

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On the bright side, we’re more likely to pick 1, 2 or 3 than 7th. 

 

From most to least likely our pick will be:

6th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 7th And least likely, 4th.

 

6 minutes ago, Dalhabs said:

Please please let us win the lottery... I need this after seeingmy swedish team lose and fail to qualify for play in the SHL next year and then the habs season down the drain....   seeing us drafting 6 or 7 would be so sad.

Honestly, 6 or 7 wouldn’t be much different than 4-5.

 

Its the first overall (Dahlin) and two wingers (svechnikov/Zadina) that represent a bit of separation.

 

4-7 could yield Boqvist, Hughes, Smith, Bouchard or Wahlstrom. Debatable amount of separation between them.

 

Boqvist/Hughes likely best of the bunch imo.

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Buffalo has a better chance at picking 4th overall than they do picking in the top 3

 

Weird

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Let’s say we get 3rd overall. Do we trade down? 

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14 minutes ago, zumpano21 said:

Let’s say we get 3rd overall. Do we trade down? 

No, the top 3 is supposedly a cut above rest of the kids.

But, of course is totally dependant on what is offered. Say, if Blues offered up a top centre prospect and their 1st pick, then might be smartest to trade down (unless Blues trade for Pacioretty at draft)...or for some screaming deal of course trade it.

 

But, I would guess that they will march up there and simply make pick, whether is #2 or #7.

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It’s an interesting dilemma as we have no shortage of good wingers. I really have zero interest in grabbing a top 6 winger.

 

Has anyone started doing random superstitious things for the draft lottery or is it just me?

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2 minutes ago, zumpano21 said:

It’s an interesting dilemma as we have no shortage of good wingers. I really have zero interest in grabbing a top 6 winger.

 

Has anyone started doing random superstitious things for the draft lottery or is it just me?

 

Zadina and Svechnikov are a step above all the winger we have. 

 

We have a ton of 2nd rounders, and 3 fourth rounders, plus our own 3rd and 5th.  Quantity of picks? we have a ton. 

 

I wouldn't trade down. 

 

When drafting never draft for what your current team needs, especially at the very top of the draft where talent is elite.  Take elite talent, and worry about the consequences later. 

 

Take the elite talent and trade Scherbak or Hudon or Byron or Pacioretty and worry about that later. 

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