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Meller93

2018 draft thread

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2 hours ago, Commandant said:

Thats a tad dramatic.

 

A third round in 2014 screwed up two years of draft work?

 

Meh vejdemo was a project as all third rounders are.  He isn't working.  Shit happens.

 

I'm pretty sure Mitch Brown mentioned on a podcast (~midseason) that he thought Vejdemo would be signed by the Habs this spring, but that might have been based on the absolute zero depth at center the Habs had in the AHL at the time.

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1 hour ago, Trizzak said:

 

I'm pretty sure Mitch Brown mentioned on a podcast (~midseason) that he thought Vejdemo would be signed by the Habs this spring, but that might have been based on the absolute zero depth at center the Habs had in the AHL at the time.

 

i could see him signed and brought over.  He might be a decent player in the AHL.  He might develop more.  They may not be ready to cut bait yet. 

 

but he's still a project, and while there has been some progression since being drafted, he really hasn't shown that he's an NHLer yet either. 

 

Thats what I mean by not working out. 

 

Remember Vejdemo is only one year younger than McCarron and DLR, (he was drafted in his second draft in 2015, after going through 2014 unclaimed). They are much further along than he is, that's what i mean by not working out. 

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6 hours ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

Since Subban so 2007.

Victor Mete round 4 2016

Brendan Gallagher round 5 2010

 

They aren’t Kucherov but then again most 1st rounders are not Kucherov either.

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16 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Victor Mete round 4 2016

Brendan Gallagher round 5 2010

 

They aren’t Kucherov but then again most 1st rounders are not Kucherov either.

 

The (fairly obvious)  claim is that you need to draft elite players outside of the upper echelons of round one if you want to contend without tanking. Mete is far from an elite player at least at this point. Gallagher is closer, but even that is a stretch.  So Subban is indeed the last unambiguously elite player that qualifies, when it comes to Habs drafting.

 

Figuring out why the Habs have been so bad at this is another question. I can think of three answers:

 

1. It's basically luck. After all, no one drafts a guy at #60 knowing that he will become a star. The dice just haven't fallen the Habs' way since Subban.

 

2. The Habs traded away too many 2nd- and 3rd-round picks, minimizing the odds of finding an all-star player prior to the late rounds when you're down to the dregs

 

3. Something in the Habs' scouting formula leads them away from players with high ceilings who come with risks or questions attached. That is, in the crunch they are more likely to pick to guy who stands to become a decent 2nd or 3rd liner (Hudon) rather than the boom-bust guy. Over time, this leads to a dearth of all-stars.

 

I have a feeling that #3 plays some role in the equation. But I'm not a scouting expert.

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41 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

3. Something in the Habs' scouting formula leads them away from players with high ceilings who come with risks or questions attached. That is, in the crunch they are more likely to pick to guy who stands to become a decent 2nd or 3rd liner (Hudon) rather than the boom-bust guy. Over time, this leads to a dearth of all-stars.

 

I have a feeling that #3 plays some role in the equation. But I'm not a scouting expert.

 

I think there's a lot of proof from 2003-2015 that when Timmins and Churla are faced with two players, one a defenceman and one a centre, they will almost always favour the defenceman as the best player available. It's the only thing that explains much of the drafting history. That or like Brian Burke and goalies it's just the one position they can't properly evaluate at all. 

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32 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

The (fairly obvious)  claim is that you need to draft elite players outside of the upper echelons of round one if you want to contend without tanking. Mete is far from an elite player at least at this point. Gallagher is closer, but even that is a stretch.  So Subban is indeed the last unambiguously elite player that qualifies, when it comes to Habs drafting.

 

Figuring out why the Habs have been so bad at this is another question. I can think of three answers:

 

1. It's basically luck. After all, no one drafts a guy at #60 knowing that he will become a star. The dice just haven't fallen the Habs' way since Subban.

 

2. The Habs traded away too many 2nd- and 3rd-round picks, minimizing the odds of finding an all-star player prior to the late rounds when you're down to the dregs

 

3. Something in the Habs' scouting formula leads them away from players with high ceilings who come with risks or questions attached. That is, in the crunch they are more likely to pick to guy who stands to become a decent 2nd or 3rd liner (Hudon) rather than the boom-bust guy. Over time, this leads to a dearth of all-stars.

 

I have a feeling that #3 plays some role in the equation. But I'm not a scouting expert.

In my opinion #2 has a bigger effect than most think.  Also, Cases like Thrower, Bozon, Vail, Crisp not reaching expectations.

 

I also think development has been disastrous, as we can see in how poorly Tinordi, Beaulieu, McCarron, Fucale, and Lernout have progressed.

 

=> There was little to start with and whoever could have exceeded expectations did not develop because of the inept people they had

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Find out today if will see this kid in a Hab jersey in late June. 

 

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2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

The (fairly obvious)  claim is that you need to draft elite players outside of the upper echelons of round one if you want to contend without tanking. Mete is far from an elite player at least at this point. Gallagher is closer, but even that is a stretch.  So Subban is indeed the last unambiguously elite player that qualifies, when it comes to Habs drafting.

 

Figuring out why the Habs have been so bad at this is another question. I can think of three answers:

 

1. It's basically luck. After all, no one drafts a guy at #60 knowing that he will become a star. The dice just haven't fallen the Habs' way since Subban.

 

2. The Habs traded away too many 2nd- and 3rd-round picks, minimizing the odds of finding an all-star player prior to the late rounds when you're down to the dregs

 

3. Something in the Habs' scouting formula leads them away from players with high ceilings who come with risks or questions attached. That is, in the crunch they are more likely to pick to guy who stands to become a decent 2nd or 3rd liner (Hudon) rather than the boom-bust guy. Over time, this leads to a dearth of all-stars.

 

I have a feeling that #3 plays some role in the equation. But I'm not a scouting expert.

Elite is a strong word but I think Mete can surprise people even more than he has already. There have been some claims that he is the best/quickest young skating defensemen in the league so in the future that will pay dividends. He didn’t do anything offensively this year but in 10 years, I could see him being one of the best defensemen in the league.

 

I would agree that the Habs are slightly worse than some other teams in the recent past when it comes to what you’re talking about, but it doesn’t happen very often for any team, when one looks at it. 

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28 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Elite is a strong word but I think Mete can surprise people even more than he has already. There have been some claims that he is the best/quickest young skating defensemen in the league so in the future that will pay dividends. He didn’t do anything offensively this year but in 10 years, I could see him being one of the best defensemen in the league.

 

I would agree that the Habs are slightly worse than some other teams in the recent past when it comes to what you’re talking about, but it doesn’t happen very often for any team, when one looks at it. 

 

Mete may work out. So far he is far from elite. I'm talking about reality, not hypotheticals.

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2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

The (fairly obvious)  claim is that you need to draft elite players outside of the upper echelons of round one if you want to contend without tanking. Mete is far from an elite player at least at this point. Gallagher is closer, but even that is a stretch.  So Subban is indeed the last unambiguously elite player that qualifies, when it comes to Habs drafting.

 

Figuring out why the Habs have been so bad at this is another question. I can think of three answers:

 

1. It's basically luck. After all, no one drafts a guy at #60 knowing that he will become a star. The dice just haven't fallen the Habs' way since Subban.

 

2. The Habs traded away too many 2nd- and 3rd-round picks, minimizing the odds of finding an all-star player prior to the late rounds when you're down to the dregs

 

3. Something in the Habs' scouting formula leads them away from players with high ceilings who come with risks or questions attached. That is, in the crunch they are more likely to pick to guy who stands to become a decent 2nd or 3rd liner (Hudon) rather than the boom-bust guy. Over time, this leads to a dearth of all-stars.

 

I have a feeling that #3 plays some role in the equation. But I'm not a scouting expert.

 

You keep harping on this... Team has to draft superstars outside the first round. 

 

We drafted Subban in 2007. 

 

Tampa has gotten a Kucherov since then.  but based on your scale only has one of these such picks in the past ten years. 

 

Dallas has Jamie Benn from 2007, but based on the scale doesn't have a second one of these type of picks. 

 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see a single NHL team that currently has 2 superstars draft round 2 or later on their roster currently.  There isn't a team who is able to make 2 Kucherov level picks in the last decade. 

 

That tells me its an unrealistic goal for any NHL team to find this level of player on the regular.  

 

I think #1, its basically luck, is your answer if you are expecting Kucherov/Subban/Benn, levels of talent. 

 

If you are willing to accept guys like Gallagher, Hudon, Mete as quality picks in the 4th, 5th, rounds, then we have another discussion, and there is some skill in drafting in doing that. 

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22 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see a single NHL team that currently has 2 superstars draft round 2 or later on their roster currently.  There isn't a team who is able to make 2 Kucherov level picks in the last decade. 

 

That tells me its an unrealistic goal for any NHL team to find this level of player on the regular.  

 

We would have to get into a discussion of defining what's a superstar, or what we are really talking about when it comes to what we want out of our second round picks and later. And if it includes traded players and undrafted players. 

 

I think making it "superstars only" is the wrong argument. The right argument is, "Who have the Habs drafted or signed in the past 10 years beyond the first round that are certified top six/top four/starter players?" Because that's where our draft blunders lie. The Hudon's and Lehkonen's and Mete's of the world are by no means confirmed top six/top four players. Meanwhile when you look at Tampa you got Kucherov, Point, Johnson and Gourde. Boston has Krug with Bergeron, Krejci, and Marchand all 2nd round or laters from longer than a decade. Nashville has Josi, Ekholm, Smith, and Arvidsson. There's other examples around the league. Then you got Winnipeg who just hits on most of their first round picks so their lack of picks in later rounds doesn't matter. We're not that good at drafting.

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15 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

We would have to get into a discussion of defining what's a superstar, or what we are really talking about when it comes to what we want out of our second round picks and later. And if it includes traded players and undrafted players. 

 

I think making it "superstars only" is the wrong argument. The right argument is, "Who have the Habs drafted or signed in the past 10 years beyond the first round that are certified top six/top four/starter players?" Because that's where our draft blunders lie. The Hudon's and Lehkonen's and Mete's of the world are by no means confirmed top six/top four players. Meanwhile when you look at Tampa you got Kucherov, Point, Johnson and Gourde. Boston has Krug with Bergeron, Krejci, and Marchand all 2nd round or laters from longer than a decade. Nashville has Josi, Ekholm, Smith, and Arvidsson. There's other examples around the league. Then you got Winnipeg who just hits on most of their first round picks so their lack of picks in later rounds doesn't matter. We're not that good at drafting.

 

Yeah. Maybe I do have to soften my argument - e.g., we should include Gallagher on the list of impact players, by this measure. But it does seem that while we are good at drafting NHLers, we are not good at drafting NHLers in the bracket you're talking about. 

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12 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Yeah. Maybe I do have to soften my argument - e.g., we should include Gallagher on the list of impact players, by this measure. But it does seem that while we are good at drafting NHLers, we are not good at drafting NHLers in the bracket you're talking about. 

 

2008-2018

Top six forwards drafted on roster: Galchenyuk, Gallagher

Top four defencemen drafted on roster: None

 

Hudon, Lehkonen, Mete, DLR, Scherbak, Lindgren, Juulsen, none of them are proven. Maybe a couple hit the next level. Or they end up Beaulieu's. After them it's players we had to acquire like Drouin and Danault, and Danault is borderline.

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Question. I've said before that I don't follow the pre-pro guys, other than maybe the ones who may go in the top 3 in the draft.

 

So my question is connected to a column by Jack Todd [no comments please] today in the Montreal Gazette, where he quotes a former NHL amateur scout, Grant McCagg, also a friend of Bob McKenzie [I added these credentials [?] just to suggest that he may be a credible source] and McCagg says that he and other NHL scouts are high on a very talented 17 year old Finnish centre, Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

 

Grant McCagg suggests that he thinks the Habs could pull a Carey Price type draft day surprise and pick this young centre, even though he has never been mentioned in the top 3. Todd quotes McCagg who says that in the 2012 draft the best pick ended up being centre Filip Forsberg who was taken 11th overall by Washington and later traded to Nashville, who with that trade settled their  first-line centre problem for a decade.

 

So is it possible that they're right about Jesperi Kotkaniemi? For those of you who follow these guys closely, what do you think?  Is the third pick an obvious, can't do anything else, or could this be a Carey Price type pick?

 

What do you think? Possible or not a chance? 

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Grant McCagg is a bitter hack is my opinion of the guy. 

 

His credibility is near nil in my books. 

 

The guy thought Mike McLeod was worthy of a #3 overall pick too. 

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Don't beat around the bush....say what you mean!! Joking!! 

 

Ok, putting him aside then. What do you think of the young centre. Are they out to lunch thinking he might have that much potential? 

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51 minutes ago, REV-G said:

Don't beat around the bush....say what you mean!! Joking!! 

 

Ok, putting him aside then. What do you think of the young centre. Are they out to lunch thinking he might have that much potential? 

 

McCagg is a hack and Kotkaniemi is a step down from Zadina. From what I've watched he's really average. Like nothing about him excites me. If we are chasing centres I personally like Veleno more. At least he has wheels. Kotkaniemi... nothing really stands out to me. He smells a whole lot like wasting a 3rd overall pick to get Patrik Berglund.

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2 hours ago, REV-G said:

Question. I've said before that I don't follow the pre-pro guys, other than maybe the ones who may go in the top 3 in the draft.

 

So my question is connected to a column by Jack Todd [no comments please] today in the Montreal Gazette, where he quotes a former NHL amateur scout, Grant McCagg, also a friend of Bob McKenzie [I added these credentials [?] just to suggest that he may be a credible source] and McCagg says that he and other NHL scouts are high on a very talented 17 year old Finnish centre, Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

 

Grant McCagg suggests that he thinks the Habs could pull a Carey Price type draft day surprise and pick this young centre, even though he has never been mentioned in the top 3. Todd quotes McCagg who says that in the 2012 draft the best pick ended up being centre Filip Forsberg who was taken 11th overall by Washington and later traded to Nashville, who with that trade settled their  first-line centre problem for a decade.

 

So is it possible that they're right about Jesperi Kotkaniemi? For those of you who follow these guys closely, what do you think?  Is the third pick an obvious, can't do anything else, or could this be a Carey Price type pick?

 

What do you think? Possible or not a chance? 

 

For starters, Filip Forsberg is a winger so he didn't exactly solve Nashville's centre problems.

 

Worth noting is that McCagg isn't just a former NHL scout, he's a former Montreal scout under Timmins.  His list from his draft guide resembled Montreal's last year (as the draft progressed, his top guys remaining were often the ones the Habs were picking).  That said, this appears to be just his opinion, not a suggestion that Timmins might actually be leaning that way.

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3 hours ago, REV-G said:

Don't beat around the bush....say what you mean!! Joking!! 

 

Ok, putting him aside then. What do you think of the young centre. Are they out to lunch thinking he might have that much potential? 

 

Its a reach to take him before 9th IMO. 

 

He's got some good traits, but also has some skating concerns. 

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Calling it now.. top three will be:

 

1. Buffalo ~ Dahlin

2. Carolina ~ Zadina

3. Montreal ~ Svechnikov

 

Just have a feeling Hurricanes go with Zadina.

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43 minutes ago, TheDriveFor25 said:

Calling it now.. top three will be:

 

1. Buffalo ~ Dahlin

2. Carolina ~ Zadina

3. Montreal ~ Svechnikov

 

Just have a feeling Hurricanes go with Zadina.

Carolina did draft Martin Necas 12th overall last year. He was the one playing  center on Zadina's line at the world juniors.

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I'm reading and hearing more that because our greatest need is a top centre and that because none are available in the draft that will bring us immediate help, we should trade our 3d pick, and maybe add to it if necessary, to get our greatly needed top line your centre.

 

For interest sake, who could we target, who would be some really good options for us that we could possible get with our 3d pick, plus? 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, REV-G said:

I'm reading and hearing more that because our greatest need is a top centre and that because none are available in the draft that will bring us immediate help, we should trade our 3d pick, and maybe add to it if necessary, to get our greatly needed top line your centre.

 

For interest sake, who could we target, who would be some really good options for us that we could possible get with our 3d pick, plus? 

 

 

Only proven centre who I see being available is oreilly. 

What the price would be? No idea but more I think about it the more i think he could handle the job and is only true elite(?) centre that  may be available.

id trade third overall for him. But would prolly have to throw in a player, maybe a dman given buffalos roster needs? They are pretty deep at centre and had ROR slotted on third line at end of season. 

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No way habs trade #3 for O'reilly. 

 

Bozak and Stansy are both out there. Both are better than anything the habs currently have down the middle. 

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I would not trade the #3 overall pick for a 27 year old, with 7.25 million on his contract who scores 55-65 points per year. 

 

No way. 

 

Not straight up at all. 

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