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Is there a path for a turnaround by next season?


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While waiting for the final games to wind down, I'm actually hoping we lose every one of our final games, obviously so we can get the best possible draft pick. There's really nothing else to look forward to at this point. 

 

So I had this thought. Is there anything Marc Bergevin could do to win us back...to fix his reputation.....is there a path going forward for us that leads to success.....even contending? In fact I wondered if there has ever been a GM who did so poorly over a 5 year term, and saw his team drop so dramatically, and was able to turn things around? I'm not referring to a GM who inherited a mess and built it up, but someone like MB who has made bad moves and trades and then was able to revive that same team?

 

I think there is a path going forward that could change our future dramatically. But let me first say that I understand what I'm pointing out is a bit like catching lightening in a bottle. The odds of everything coming together according to the path I'm suggesting is way out there. But it's possible. Kind of like Edmonton getting the first pick for so many years.

 

So here it is. Remember, this is possible, however unlikely, but there is a path that could lead to a huge turnaround for us. Here it is.

 

What if we lose most of our final games and then win the draft lottery and improve to the top 3 and get a very good player who will play for us next year. Certainly possible.

What if we add Joel Bouchard, as is being reported, and also added Dominique Ducharme, or someone like him to bring in fresh leadership and begin a new culture. One of them as our AHL coach and the other to replace JJD or even as GM with MB being moved up to another position. Certainly possible.

What if we sign John Tavares? Ok, here's catching the lightening in a bottle.

What if we kept Max P and united him with Tavares and Drouin?

What if we signed or traded for a top 4 left handed Dman?

What if, combined with our draft last year, we pick up a few very good prospects in the draft this year?

What if the terrible season we had this year lights a fire under Molson and Bergevin, like a slap upside the head, and they realize that the fans, media and players are all looking at them to fix this mess whatever it takes.  We're certainly there on that one! 

 

Maybe there's more but if these changes or something close to them could happen I believe we would see a huge turnaround.

Honestly, I think all of it is very possible. The only real big question mark is of course Tavares. But the islanders have had a very bad season. And even the media has openly talked about the possibility of him having friends on our team and maybe him liking the idea of coming in and being part of a resurrection, along with a big payday, back in Canada. I heard Darren Dreger say a month ago that while Tavares has never said anything to him, he has the feeling that Tavares would be open to coming to Montreal. Has he heard something. Now this next thought is purely speculation. We have all been very surprised, along with the Montreal media from what I've read, that Molson has not fired MB based on his record and the state of our team. Is it possible that MB has told Molson that he has inside news that Tavares is seriously considering signing with us. Why is Bergevin so confident about being here? Does he know something big is going to happen? Tavares?? Speculation....but is it possible. It is.  

 

So there is a path. It could happen. I wouldn't bet on it but there is a path going forward. could MB turn it around and win us back?? 

 

What do you think? Since there's not a lot else to talk about I thought this could give us something interesting to ponder!!  

 

 

 

 

 

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1. Have a healthy Price/Weber/Gallagher.

 

2. Sign Tavares

 

If (2) fails:

 

3. Should we seriously consider John Carlson? Or does this make our D ridiculously lopsided toward RD? (How's this for a dramatic idea: sign Carlson, trade Weber for a LD or a C. Won't happen, but it's amusing to contemplate).

 

4. Whatever happens with (3), by hook or by crook trade a W for RNH or some analogous top-6 C.  My pet proposal is MaxPac for RNH + top-4 D prospect. Regardless of specifics, it should be #67 we seek to move for that C. Gallagher and Galchenyuk are much younger, and given that we will be over-committing to an aging C (as per point 4 below), we should avoid over-committing to an aging W.

 

5. Even if (4) pans out, try to acquire another top-6 C...maybe Stastny. Beggars can't be choosers.

 

 

 

 

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I like that plan and I agree about the possibility of trading both Max and Weber. I would trade Web in a heartbeat for a solid top 2 younger defence man, to a team who needs veteran leadership now and is willing to give up a young guy to get it. 

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I doubt either Weber or Pacioretty will be traded. 

 

As for Bergevin having inside information that Tavares will sign with us and that being the reason he’s stayed safe, I find it very unlikely. First of all, it’s probably not true. Second of all, I don’t think whoever our GM is has much of an influence on the likelihood of Tavares signing with us. 

 

If Bergevin were to say that to Molson and Molson wanted to fire him he could simply fire Bergevin and give that “inside info” to the new GM. I don’t find the situation to make sense because it seems more like a situation where Bergevin would be begging/manipulating Molson simply in order to keep his job. 

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1 hour ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I doubt either Weber or Pacioretty will be traded. 

 

As for Bergevin having inside information that Tavares will sign with us and that being the reason he’s stayed safe, I find it very unlikely. First of all, it’s probably not true. Second of all, I don’t think whoever our GM is has much of an influence on the likelihood of Tavares signing with us. 

 

If Bergevin were to say that to Molson and Molson wanted to fire him he could simply fire Bergevin and give that “inside info” to the new GM. I don’t find the situation to make sense because it seems more like a situation where Bergevin would be begging/manipulating Molson simply in order to keep his job. 

 

I think I read somewhere that Bergevin is close with Pat Brisson, who is the agent of Tavares. Not saying that means much but it's something. 

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42 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

You can change whatever you want on that roster. Doesn't change the fact that the office and management and staff is mediocre at best save for Waite.

 

But hey maybe they slip into a wildcard spot next year! Isn't that exciting?

 

That's the deeper problem for sure. But since Kegmeister Molson refuses to face reality, the question immediately before us is how to improve given what we've got.

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In the real world, no.  There are too many big holes in the roster to realistically expect a 'good team by next season.  Will it be better?  Very likely.  This is a team that is short a top 3 dman, a #1C, and a #2C...we will be lucky to fill either the #2C or top 3 dman hole in the offseason, let alone both.  Forget about the #1C...Tavares is not going to sign with a non-contender unless it's the Isles.  With a resurgent (God-like) Price, healthy Weber, and the conversion of Pacioretty into a #2C, we may squeak into the playoffs as a wild card team.  I would not dare put my hopes any higher than that...and that's probably being far too optimistic.

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I tend to be overly optimistic. I'll try to tone it down here.

Another path to the very unlike scenario of landing Tavares and Dahlin would be:

1) Trade for a legit top2 LD defence

2) Have overall improvements from 27, 62, 92, 67, 24 and another good season from 11

That would get us to the playoffs

 

Beyond that, we either hope that Poehling/Evans can play at the NHL in a year's time or we land Tavares; that would takes up a notch but not to the level of being contenders

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1 hour ago, sbhatt said:

In the real world, no.  There are too many big holes in the roster to realistically expect a 'good team by next season.  Will it be better?  Very likely.  This is a team that is short a top 3 dman, a #1C, and a #2C...we will be lucky to fill either the #2C or top 3 dman hole in the offseason, let alone both.  Forget about the #1C...Tavares is not going to sign with a non-contender unless it's the Isles.  With a resurgent (God-like) Price, healthy Weber, and the conversion of Pacioretty into a #2C, we may squeak into the playoffs as a wild card team.  I would not dare put my hopes any higher than that...and that's probably being far too optimistic.

 

Lord knows, I am not exactly Pangloss when it comes to these Habs, but I think you're being too pessimistic. Let's assume a strong bounce-back season from Price and a no serious injuries to him Patches, Weber, or Gallagher.  If the Habs can add either a top-3 LD OR a top-6 C - not necessarily a Stud C - they will probably look like a decent team, certainly playoff-calibre. They would not be contenders, but they'd be decent. Heck, given a strong Carey Price, even the bums we see before us might have been a bubble team. Add a C or top-3 D-man, it'd move the needle. Add both, it'd move the needle some more.

 

(The "no major injury to key player" qualifier is significant, though. The Habs as currently configured can't survive serious injuries to Price or Weber, and probably not to Patches either. While it's true that every team has a key player it can't afford to lose, the drop off from the Habs' top players to everyone else seems too steep to me; there's zero buffer if those guys go down).

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2 hours ago, Commandant said:

Pacioretty is gone IMO.

Pacioretty, 2nd + prospect for Jeff Carter and sign JVR as a free agent and all is fine with me. Would be nice to get younger but at least I'll enjoy next season. 

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I made a comment in a different thread about the possibility of a turnaround next season.  Basically it went something like this:

 

1) Win draft lottery and draft Dahlin.  This gives the Habs a cost controlled player for the next 3 years who becomes an RFA and then he can be signed to an 8 year deal (or make the mistake of another bridge deal).  Regardless, you would be looking at him being part of the team for at least 11 years barring any trade and it's the best 11 years of his career.  Trading for or signing a guy like Karlsson or Ekman-Larsson is likely to be more expensive and might not look all that good when they hit their early to mid 30s and you're still paying them out the a** for their declining years.

 

2) Sign John Tavares.  Obviously this fills the slot at 1C for the team.  Unfortunately he will need over $10M a season, which could be difficult to manage long term with Price's $10.5M, and Weber making just under $8M.  You can pretty much kiss Pacioretty good bye, and extending Dahlin (if step 1 happens) among others will be nearly impossible.  This is where some creative cap management needs to come into play.  Some useful players will need to be shipped out.  My solution would be to ship out the lower rung guys.  Which brings me to step 3.

 

I'm adding these

 

3)  Create cap space for now and the future.  I have nothing against Andrew Shaw, but his cap hit for what he provides is too much.  There were some rumors at the deadline that there was some interest in him, but Bergevin was reluctant to trade him.  Winnipeg was one team I heard, another was Carolina.  I deal Shaw to Carolina for Kruger and a pick.  I'd push for Carolina's 1st rounder in 2018.  It's likely to be in the 10-15 range of the draft.  Obviously this a deal that occurs after the draft lottery (Carolina's not trading a lottery pick to the Habs for Shaw and to get rid of Kruger's contract).  In that range you should be able to get one of Lundestrom, Kotkoniemi, Veleno, or Hayton (all centers with top 6 upside).  Kruger's contract expires in 2019 clearing a full $3.9M in cap space for the remainder of the Shaw deal.  Pacioretty will also need to be resigned in the summer of 2019 and $3M to $3.5M should be enough to keep him long term (especially if step 1 and step 2 happen).  Other deals will have to be made as well, but I'm not sure what other ones make sense.  Trade Alzner obviously, but who's going to take that?  I don't have all the answers (maybe I don't have any).

 

4)  Improvement to scouting and development.  Lets start with scouting.  I'd like to see more quality scouts hired at both the amateur and pro levels.  The more viewings of players, the better reads they should be able to get.  On the amateur side it should allow our scouts to better identify strengths and weaknesses to better project players (in theory anyway) so that better selections can be made (not that I think there have been a lot of bad selections, just looking to improve it).  On the pro side, it may help us do a better job seeing trends for players.  Guys on the team who are will be trending down (so it's time to sell before they lose all value or become a cap anchor) or guys who are trending up (so we know who to trade for/sign and get the best bang for our buck).  As for development, they might already be on there way to improvement.  If the rumors about Joel Bouchard are true the Habs might have their new AHL head coach.  I wouldn't mind adding new assistants as well.

 

 5)  Better asset/cap management.  This one is self explanatory and will be necessary if the Habs sign Tavares and want to have long term success.  It's about creating a longer "Cup window".  Most GMs in the league (including Bergevin) seem to try to build these short 3-4 year windows.  I'd rather have 6-7 (or longer) year window.  You can't build that kind of window if you don't properly manage your assets and cap.

 

I'm sure I'm probably overlooking something or might be asking for a bit much, but I think that all of these things are possible (long shot, but possible).

 

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It all depends on if we can land tavares July 1st. I have said it from the start that that was Bergevin plan. He has put all his eggs in the hopes that he can get tavares to sign here. If he can't land tavares then next year theres some really good Dman if they hit free agency. If in the next 2 years he can't land any elite players then blow it up and rebuild.  Here's how a quick turnaround can happen....

 

If we don't get the top pick in the draft I would look into trading it if its out of the top 5, for a top Dman to play along side Weber.  I am sure a top 10 pick plus a 2nd round pick could land us Larsson from phx, then if we can land tavares things would turnaround fast. Tavares is the kind of guy we need to mentor galchenyuk.

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#1 center

 

#2 center

 

Top pair LD to play with Weber

 

You Pacs to trade for a #1, Galchenyuk for a #2

 

Leaving Lehkonen, Drouin, Gallger, Sherbak, hudon for top 6 wingers,

 

is that enough, maybe if you have a legit top 2 centers

 

Byron Dagnault Shaw is fine for a 3rd line

 

Deslarias, DLR, Shaw, McCarron Froese fight it for the 4th line

 

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14 hours ago, Metallica said:

It all depends on if we can land tavares July 1st. I have said it from the start that that was Bergevin plan. He has put all his eggs in the hopes that he can get tavares to sign here. If he can't land tavares then next year theres some really good Dman if they hit free agency. If in the next 2 years he can't land any elite players then blow it up and rebuild.  Here's how a quick turnaround can happen....

 

If we don't get the top pick in the draft I would look into trading it if its out of the top 5, for a top Dman to play along side Weber.  I am sure a top 10 pick plus a 2nd round pick could land us Larsson from phx, then if we can land tavares things would turnaround fast. Tavares is the kind of guy we need to mentor galchenyuk.

 

Not a bad plan. Larsson is young enough that we could probably get, oh, 7 years of quality from him - enough to justify losing the pick(s), given the ages of Price and Weber. If we don't land Tavares, though, that might start to look like wasted assets, since this team is winning jack-all without some decent C...but that's where you proceed to move Patches for a top-6 C. So yeah, this could work well.

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Ekman-Larsson would be a perfect fit for Montreal and I would trade a top 10 pick to get him for sure. The only problem is that he is going to require a huge contract when he is due after next season. And depending on how the other holes on the roster are filled, money could be tight. 

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It’s not the notes you play, it’s the notes you don’t play.

 

I would try and move the disaster long contracts (Weber, Alzner). Not sure I would do a whole lot else.

 

I for one am a little wary of Tavares. He’s elite but doesnt have the speed which is so important these days. It’s a tough situation because we need that #1 centre so badly. 

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52 minutes ago, illWill said:

Ekman-Larsson would be a perfect fit for Montreal and I would trade a top 10 pick to get him for sure. The only problem is that he is going to require a huge contract when he is due after next season. And depending on how the other holes on the roster are filled, money could be tight. 

 

We have enough garbage contracts that we could clear the space if necessary. Granted, between Weber, Price, and (hypothetically) OEL and Tavares, we'd have some heavy cap hits. Nonetheless, get the guy you need and sort out the cap later IMHO. We've been crap for long enough. Time for some serious moves that - for once - actually address real problems and actually IMPROVE the damned hockey team.

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28 minutes ago, zumpano21 said:

It’s not the notes you play, it’s the notes you don’t play.

 

I would try and move the disaster long contracts (Weber, Alzner). Not sure I would do a whole lot else.

 

I for one am a little wary of Tavares. He’s elite but doesnt have the speed which is so important these days. It’s a tough situation because we need that #1 centre so badly. 

I have little hope will land Tavares, but seems like he would be a perfect fit for what Habs are really missing, I don't know if he is slower skater or not, but would take the risk with 7 year deal on him.

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20 minutes ago, DON said:

I have little hope will land Tavares, but seems like he would be a perfect fit for what Habs are really missing, I don't know if he is slower skater or not, but would take the risk with 7 year deal on him.

 

Yeah, Tavares is a proven elite #1C. If you're going to throw massive money at a guy, he'd be it. The 'risk' is pretty hypothetical in his case since we KNOW he can produce.

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I think its important to get a Proven 1# center on this team. The reason being to take galchenyuk under his wing and mentor him, much like Cole did for Pacioretty. Tavares is that guy for galchenyuk.

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It all depends on what will happen at the draft and on July 1st. If we can win the draft (and Pick Dahlen) and then manage to find a way to convince Tavares to come to MTL, then I'd say we could turn this thing around pretty damn fast. 

 

BUt both of these are LONG shots...not sure either one will happen!

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3 hours ago, Habsfan said:

It all depends on what will happen at the draft and on July 1st. If we can win the draft (and Pick Dahlen) and then manage to find a way to convince Tavares to come to MTL, then I'd say we could turn this thing around pretty damn fast. 

 

BUt both of these are LONG shots...not sure either one will happen!

Why would Tavares one to go from one ineptly run franchise to another?

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