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How to Fix the Habs 2018

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1 hour ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

When McCarron was drafted, one of the first people to get a photo with him up on the podium was North American amateur scout Frank Jay.

 

He now works for the Oilers.

 

That about sums it up

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Let's assume Mtl drafts 4th overall. Montreal trades that pick and another (one of their 2nds) to the Islanders for their 2 first rounders which could be 10th and 12th picks.

This allows the Islanders to select the best available dman, the team's biggest need aside from goalie.

Montreal now trades one of those 1st rounders to Calgary for Sam Bennett (Yes there could be other moving parts). Calgary gets their 1st rounder back and Montreal potentially gets a top 6 centre

 

Carolinas new owner has said no one is safe on their roster other than Aho. Montreal trades Pacioretty ( + other pieces) for Noah Hanifin or Jake Bean (straight up). Carolina gets goal scoring and Montreal a puck moving dman.

 

There's alot of risk involved for Montreal. Trading out of top 4 pick, potentially out of 1st round entirely with trades, hoping Bennett can find his game. If it's Bean Montrel trades for its risky that Bean doesn't pan out.    

 

Drouin   Galchenyuk   Scherbak 

Lehkonen    Bennett   Gallagher

Bryon   Danault   Hudon 

Deslaurier  A Shaw   Rychel  

 

Mete    Weber

Hanifin(Bean)   Petry

Reilly    Juulsen   Benn

 

Price

Lindgren

 

 

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23 minutes ago, kaos said:

Let's assume Mtl drafts 4th overall. Montreal trades that pick and another (one of their 2nds) to the Islanders for their 2 first rounders which could be 10th and 12th picks.

This allows the Islanders to select the best available dman, the team's biggest need aside from goalie.

Montreal now trades one of those 1st rounders to Calgary for Sam Bennett (Yes there could be other moving parts). Calgary gets their 1st rounder back and Montreal potentially gets a top 6 centre

 

Carolinas new owner has said no one is safe on their roster other than Aho. Montreal trades Pacioretty ( + other pieces) for Noah Hanifin or Jake Bean (straight up). Carolina gets goal scoring and Montreal a puck moving dman.

 

There's alot of risk involved for Montreal. Trading out of top 4 pick, potentially out of 1st round entirely with trades, hoping Bennett can find his game. If it's Bean Montrel trades for its risky that Bean doesn't pan out.    

 

Drouin   Galchenyuk   Scherbak 

Lehkonen    Bennett   Gallagher

Bryon   Danault   Hudon 

Deslaurier  A Shaw   Rychel  

 

Mete    Weber

Hanifin(Bean)   Petry

Reilly    Juulsen   Benn

 

Price

Lindgren

 

 

This looks really good

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The chances of drafting 4th are miniscule.  Like 3%.

 

Montreal has a better chance.of.picking in any other spot in the top 7 than 4th.

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I was looking at the Canadiens drafts since the Gauthier years. And even if the team was a playoff team, the prospect pool was barren. From the PG legacy only Gallagher (5th round) made it.

The team has done better managing drafts since MB took over, trying to build through the draft. one thing I think he has been stubborn about is not to let go a prospect for short term success.

he even has hedged McCarron with Kerby Rychel and Lernout with  Valiev.

Not having 2nd round drafts in 2014-2016 was shortsighted, and an error he is trying not to repeat

 

To the topic of the thread: I think that to fix the Canadiens, development has to improve. Letting go of older greedy players was the right call: but this year they have to hit a home run in the draft and to get rid of marginal bottom 6 players we like to make room for legit top 6 players: Byron, the two Shaws, Carr, Hudon, Froese, etc.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I was looking at the Canadiens drafts since the Gauthier years. And even if the team was a playoff team, the prospect pool was barren. From the PG legacy only Gallagher (5th round) made it.

The team has done better managing drafts since MB took over, trying to build through the draft. one thing I think he has been stubborn about is not to let go a prospect for short term success.

he even has hedged McCarron with Kerby Rychel and Lernout with  Valiev.

Not having 2nd round drafts in 2014-2016 was shortsighted, and an error he is trying not to repeat

 

To the topic of the thread: I think that to fix the Canadiens, development has to improve. Letting go of older greedy players was the right call: but this year they have to hit a home run in the draft and to get rid of marginal bottom 6 players we like to make room for legit top 6 players: Byron, the two Shaws, Carr, Hudon, Froese, etc.

 

 

Look at the Drouin trade. You could also say the same about the Subban trade. In both he traded younger players to try and win now didn't workout and has set the team back.

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19 minutes ago, Metallica said:

Look at the Drouin trade. You could also say the same about the Subban trade. In both he traded younger players to try and win now didn't workout and has set the team back.

I should have written that differently Metallica.

He been stubborn by not trading McCarron before, and keeping the young core (Chucky, Gally, Lehks, A. shaw) but you are correct about those two trades

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I've said this before...in order to be a contender without tanking, you need, not just to draft competently, but better than that. You need to find elite or semi-elite core players outside the top-10 and outside the first round. That's what Bob did with PK Subban. That's what Boston did with Pastrnak, Nashville did with Josi and a couple of other guys. Vancouver got Brock Boeser 23rd overall. Now I'm not prospect expert, but so far I've seen nothing in the Bergevin era suggesting anything more than 'merely competent' drafting (if that). We've seen zero studs outside the top-10. Bergevin does have an advantage, though, in that he was gifted a #3 overall pick, and his complete incompetence has given him the luxury of two top-10 picks  beyond that (2016 and now this year).  So his unintentional tanking may end up compensating for his insufficiently excellent drafting overall.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I've said this before...in order to be a contender without tanking, you need, not just to draft competently, but better than that. You need to find elite or semi-elite core players outside the top-10 and outside the first round. That's what Bob did with PK Subban. That's what Boston did with Pastrnak, Nashville did with Josi and a couple of other guys. Vancouver got Brock Boeser 23rd overall. Now I'm not prospect expert, but so far I've seen nothing in the Bergevin era suggesting anything more than 'merely competent' drafting (if that). We've seen zero studs outside the top-10. Bergevin does have an advantage, though, in that he was gifted a #3 overall pick, and his complete incompetence has given him the luxury of two top-10 picks  beyond that (2016 and now this year).  So his unintentional tanking may end up compensating for his insufficiently excellent drafting overall.

 

It still might be a little early to completely evaluate 2012/2013/2014 but unless someone breaks out, Montreal has had three 1st Round picks, five 2nd round picks, and four 3rd round picks. That's 10 picks in the Top 100 of three drafts.

 

The only legitimate top six player drafted was the highest pick in 3rd overall Alex Galchenyuk. 2013 2nd round pick Artturi Lehkonen and 2014 1st round pick Nikita Scherbak are potential top six forwards. None of the picks are potential top four defencemen or starting goalies. Andrighetto, McCarron, and DLR look like bottom six lifers.

 

2012: Alex Galchenyuk (1st), Sebastien Collberg (2nd), Dalton Thrower, (2nd) Tim Bozon (3rd)

2013: Mike McCarron (1st), Jacob De La Rose (2nd), Zach Fucale (2nd), Artturi Lehkonen (2nd), Connor Crisp (3rd), Sven Andrighetto (3rd)

2014: Nikita Scherbak (1st), Brett Lernout (3rd)

 

You have to ask yourself, not, "Is this what the average NHL team accomplishes" but, "Is this good enough for this club to just retool on the fly instead of a full rebuild" if the players getting closer to their mid 20s are this low in potential.

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Posted (edited)

That's what I was looking at Machine!

Top 100 draft picks we have in our system:

2012: Chucky (ok), Collberg (ok trade), Thrower (hurt, bust), Bozon (got sick), Vail (bust)

2013: Rychel (got in trade, 4th liner), McCarron (4th liner at best), DLR (3rd liner at best), Lehkonen (could be top 6), Crisp/Andrigettho/Reway

2014: Sherbak (could be top 6), Valiev (depth), Lernout (depth), 

2015: Juulsen (bottom pair D with upside), Vejdemi (???), 

2016: Sergachev (traded), Mete (surprise), Bitten (could be 3rd liner)

 

That's not too bad...

Edited by alfredoh2009
For the not in last sentence

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27 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

That's what I was looking at Machine!

Top 100 draft picks we have in our system:

2012: Chucky (ok), Collberg (ok trade), Thrower (hurt, bust), Bozon (got sick), Vail (bust)

2013: Rychel (got in trade, 4th liner), McCarron (4th liner at best), DLR (3rd liner at best), Lehkonen (could be top 6), Crisp/Andrigettho/Reway

2014: Sherbak (could be top 6), Valiev (depth), Lernout (depth), 

2015: Juulsen (bottom pair D with upside), Vejdemi (???), 

2016: Sergachev (traded), Mete (surprise), Bitten (could be 3rd liner)

 

That's not too bad...

 

Discounting Chucky and Sergy, both top-10 picks, there is not a real impact player in that bunch. Maybe Mete ,eventually - ?

 

That's my point. You have to draft *impact* guys outside the top half of the first round. We don't seem to have done this.

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I’m not defending our prospect pool but I still think Scherbak can be elite. I hope it’s not just youthful exuberance that he’s shown and that the grind of the NHL season doesn’t eventually wear him down. 

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6 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Discounting Chucky and Sergy, both top-10 picks, there is not a real impact player in that bunch. Maybe Mete ,eventually - ?

 

That's my point. You have to draft *impact* guys outside the top half of the first round. We don't seem to have done this.

Before making that conclusion, I wanted to look at the trade records and standings for each year.

I think MB's plan has been to try to build through the draft and to only do bottom of the dumpster trades to get the CH over the hump. I think 2017-2018 was the bottom of the barrel to flush out Pierre Gauthier's fire sale 

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I think Hudon, Lehkonen, Scherbak are all potential top 6 guys in the system. 

 

Galchenyuk is clearly top six talent. 

 

Sergachev is a top 4 defenceman.  Mete and Juulsen likely are as well. 

 

Thats 7 picks in 5 years that are top 6/top4

 

That number is not out of line with what should be expected. 

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45 minutes ago, Commandant said:

I think Hudon, Lehkonen, Scherbak are all potential top 6 guys in the system. 

 

Galchenyuk is clearly top six talent. 

 

Sergachev is a top 4 defenceman.  Mete and Juulsen likely are as well. 

 

Thats 7 picks in 5 years that are top 6/top4

 

That number is not out of line with what should be expected. 

They may be top 6/4 on the Canadiens but I am not sure they would be on a cup contending team. That was the point I was trying to make: we have some decent prospects with some upside, but nothing that turns the CH into cup contenders anytime soon 

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10 minutes ago, Commandant said:

I think Hudon, Lehkonen, Scherbak are all potential top 6 guys in the system. 

 

Galchenyuk is clearly top six talent. 

 

Sergachev is a top 4 defenceman.  Mete and Juulsen likely are as well. 

 

Thats 7 picks in 5 years that are top 6/top4

 

That number is not out of line with what should be expected. 

 

I like Hudon and Lehkonen a lot. Hudon has a lot to prove before I see him as a top six option on anything other than an injured or bad team. Lehkonen I feel had a bad sophomore season and that happens but it doesn't feel like Julien has much confidence in him.

 

The problem is when I say legitimate top six talent, I should be saying "Player you would expect to play top line and second line only if the team has great depth" and that's why only Alex Galchenyuk fits that with Scherbak as a maybe. Middle six wingers are dime a dozen these days. Drafting a 20 goal guy that gets 40 points on a great season doesn't mean much anymore. About their only use is hoping a team overrates one after an inflated season and you get a good haul for them. I should just start calling them the Versteeg's of the world.

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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

They may be top 6/4 on the Canadiens but I am not sure they would be on a cup contending team. That was the point I was trying to make: we have some decent prospects with some upside, but nothing that turns the CH into cup contenders anytime soon 

 

I think they are top 6/4 on cup contending teams. 

 

I like our wingers... I think we have an abundance of talented wings... We need help at centre. 

 

I also think Mete and Juulsen have potential, but are young, just 19 and 20 respectively.

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I don'

2 hours ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

I like Hudon and Lehkonen a lot. Hudon has a lot to prove before I see him as a top six option on anything other than an injured or bad team. Lehkonen I feel had a bad sophomore season and that happens but it doesn't feel like Julien has much confidence in him.

 

The problem is when I say legitimate top six talent, I should be saying "Player you would expect to play top line and second line only if the team has great depth" and that's why only Alex Galchenyuk fits that with Scherbak as a maybe. Middle six wingers are dime a dozen these days. Drafting a 20 goal guy that gets 40 points on a great season doesn't mean much anymore. About their only use is hoping a team overrates one after an inflated season and you get a good haul for them. I should just start calling them the Versteeg's of the world.

 

I disagree that there is an overabundance of 20 goal 40 point guys in the NHL. 

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1. Fire Begevin

2. Hire a Director of Hockey Operations —an experienced hockey lifer to oversee the renaissance 

3. Perform a thorough and detailed review of all aspects of the operation with special emphasis on pro scouting and player development and make changes as needed.

4. Fire Slyvain Lefebvre and replace him with a young(ish) Francophone coach who is next in line to coach the Habs

5. As an insurance policy for # 4, hire Alain Vigneault in some capacity or put him on a right of first refusal personal services contract

6. Win the lottery

7. Sign Tavares

8. Sign a 2nd line centre

9. Sign or trade for a d who can complement Shea Weber.

10. Have plan B, C, D, E, F and G with viable NHL players involved in case #6, 7, 8, 9 &10 don’t work out.

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6 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I’m not defending our prospect pool but I still think Scherbak can be elite. I hope it’s not just youthful exuberance that he’s shown and that the grind of the NHL season doesn’t eventually wear him down. 

I must admit that I also have somewhat high hopes for Sherbak. I assume he'll start the season in MTL next year. At that point we'll have a better idea is he's really at top 6.

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19 minutes ago, Habsfan said:

I must admit that I also have somewhat high hopes for Sherbak. I assume he'll start the season in MTL next year. At that point we'll have a better idea is he's really at top 6.

Sherbak needs to stay on the team. I agree. He has some sweet mitts. 

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