Qualifying Offer Thread

[alfredoh2009]

8 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

My grasp of the timeline may be fuzzy...didn't Goat sign Erik Cole too? His drafts may have been unproductive, but he had very few picks to work with (if memory serves) and was only GM for, like, two of them. I don't think many of our problems lie in the Goat era; he self-destructed before he could do any real structural damage to the organization, it seems to me - except for the Squid trade.

 

Your last sentence is the real key to our current woes.

I just checked, Cole was signed by Gainey but it was at a time when Gainey was a shell of himself.

Gauthier brought in Emelin and Diaz, but traded away 2011's 2nd, 3rd  for Lang and Schneider and 2011's 2x 2nd and a 3rd for Moore, Wisnewski and Didier... 1rst rounders where Tinordi and Beaulieu from those two years: a complete waste of draft years. Horrible.

 

Those two years undermined the supply of talent needed to continue beyond the "success" of the 2013 3rd round playoff run. 

 

That's long span without top drafts coming in were made worse by MB's attemps to keep the playoff runs going: giving away 2013-2nd for Vanek and 2014 2nd&4th for Petry.

===

In my last sentence, I changed my opinion a bit after (Commandant) corrected me that it was MB who inherited a " a young #1 goalie, a young #1 defenceman, and a young #1 LW... all of whom were already producing in the NHL" and failed to build on that core.

 

My take is that the hole created by Gauthier did setup MB to "win now". He almost achieved his goal of getting to the Stanley cup finals  but regressed when he traded for Petry and Shaw (the Shaw trade was a mistaken in hindsight).

 

I am not blindly defending MB, I am just saying that he should not also be blamed for the mess PG left in the development pipe.

 

The last two drafts look promising. If we "loose for Hughes", and take time to develop the current prospects (for example by keeping Mete-Juulsen as the Rocket's top D pair) we may see better days ahead.

 

[Commandant]

Cole was 100% signed by Gauthier not Gainey.

 

Gainey resigned in early 2010.

 

Cole was signed in july 2011.

 

Gainey also made the Schneider and Lang trades.  That was 2009.

 

I think your timelines are off.

[alfredoh2009]

59 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Cole was 100% signed by Gauthier not Gainey.

 

Gainey resigned in early 2010.

 

Cole was signed in july 2011.

 

Gainey also made the Schneider and Lang trades.  That was 2009.

 

I think your timelines are off.

I'll check again.

but thanks for keeping me honest, it is what makes this forum so good

[Commandant]

2008-2011 were four drafts hurt by a lack of picks and that is on both gainey and gauthier.  The first two being gainey drafts.  The next two being gauthier drafts.

 

That said.  The system still had enough that by 2012 there was a good group in place and we had lots of extra picks in 2012 and 13 to build the team with.

 

I still blame bergevin for the state of the franchise.  Moving subban, not developping chuck as a c, not adding a c.  Letting pleks and markov age without replacements.  Etc.

 

That said... the weakness of the habs system today is something fans greatly overestimate.  Cory Pronman at the athletic has them as the 6th best farm system in his ranks. 

 

I have them at 8th in my ranks.

 

 

[Habopotamus]

 

 

30 minutes ago, Commandant said:

2008-2011 were four drafts hurt by a lack of picks and that is on both gainey and gauthier.  The first two being gainey drafts.  The next two being gauthier drafts.

 

That said.  The system still had enough that by 2012 there was a good group in place and we had lots of extra picks in 2012 and 13 to build the team with.

 

I still blame bergevin for the state of the franchise.  Moving subban, not developping chuck as a c, not adding a c.  Letting pleks and markov age without replacements.  Etc.

 

That said... the weakness of the habs system today is something fans greatly overestimate.  Cory Pronman at the athletic has them as the 6th best farm system in his ranks. 

 

I have them at 8th in my ranks.

 

 

Realistically, we should end up getting a first for Pacioretty.

 

Move Shaw, Schlemko, and Been for picks. 

 

2019 draft should get us another 11 or so prospects. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

3 hours ago, Commandant said:

2008-2011 were four drafts hurt by a lack of picks and that is on both gainey and gauthier.  The first two being gainey drafts.  The next two being gauthier drafts.

 

That said.  The system still had enough that by 2012 there was a good group in place and we had lots of extra picks in 2012 and 13 to build the team with.

 

I still blame bergevin for the state of the franchise.  Moving subban, not developping chuck as a c, not adding a c.  Letting pleks and markov age without replacements.  Etc.

 

That said... the weakness of the habs system today is something fans greatly overestimate.  Cory Pronman at the athletic has them as the 6th best farm system in his ranks. 

 

I have them at 8th in my ranks.

 

 

 

I appreciate alfredoh's effort to get at deeper root causes of the team's suckage. 

 

But at the end of the day, 6 years is enough for any competent GM to assemble a strong team. This is doubly true for someone like MB who was gifted elite, young core pieces and a high (3rd overall) draft pick. I'm sorry, but whatever Bob's and Goat's mistakes, this mess is entirely on the bum currently desecrating the GM's office.

[alfredoh2009]

8 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I appreciate alfredoh's effort to get at deeper root causes of the team's suckage. 

 

But at the end of the day, 6 years is enough for any competent GM to assemble a strong team. This is doubly true for someone like MB who was gifted elite, young core pieces and a high (3rd overall) draft pick. I'm sorry, but whatever Bob's and Goat's mistakes, this mess is entirely on the bum currently desecrating the GM's office.

I miss hockey, this keeps me from eating my own children 

[Machine of Loving Grace]

If you look around the league, 2008-2012 was a mediocre time for a lot of teams when it came to the draft.

 

It isn't exclusive to Montreal. 

 

 

[DON]

21 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

If you look around the league, 2008-2012 was a mediocre time for a lot of teams when it came to the draft.

 

It isn't exclusive to Montreal. 

 

 

2008-12 5 yrs Habs had 4 1st and 2 2nd round picks. Hudon and Gallagher are only ones left.

2013-18 6yrs since took over, have had 6 1st and 8 2nd rounders. Many are signed with either Habs-Laval. With McCarron being the only uncalled for swing and miss. 

[Trizzak]

6 hours ago, Commandant said:

That said... the weakness of the habs system today is something fans greatly overestimate.  Cory Pronman at the athletic has them as the 6th best farm system in his ranks. 

 

I have them at 8th in my ranks.

 

Isn't Pronman known for reaching more than most scouts?

 

Don't get me wrong, I'll quote him here as a source too, but it should be noted he's like a better version of Craig Button with his off-the-board picks.

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, Trizzak said:

 

Isn't Pronman known for reaching more than most scouts?

 

Don't get me wrong, I'll quote him here as a source too, but it should be noted he's like a better version of Craig Button with his off-the-board picks.

 

Well there are only 3 people who I've seen do full 31 team prospect rankings after the NHL draft. 

 

I am one

Pronman is another. 

and Steve Kournianos of the Sporting News is the third. 

The Sporting News ranks are actually kind of hilarious... They have Montreal at 18.  Somehow the Habs are behind Edmonton and Toronto which is a total joke on both.... 

They have Colorado at 6... what?

Tampa at 7... HOW?

 

The Islanders are somehow 14th????  Both Pronman and I have them top 5. 
Vegas 22nd?  Both Pronman and I have them top 10. 
 

[Commandant]

Also here was Pronman's comment on the Habs. 

 

"But if a team had a third overall pick, two other recent first round picks, and five other recent second round picks eligible for their system, on average historically, how many of those systems are not top 10 in last 10 years? Seems pretty reasonable on those facts alone before we get into who I like and don't like."

 

 

I mean... he's right.... Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Juulsen are all still prospects.... Brook, Ikonen, Romanov, Ylonen, and Olofsson are all prospects.... Thats a good start to any group...

and thats without getting into the fact that he was high on McShane, Fonstad and Hillis all before the draft, ranking all three in his second round.  

So of course he was going to give Montreal high marks. 

[Trizzak]

32 minutes ago, Commandant said:

and thats without getting into the fact that he was high on McShane, Fonstad and Hillis all before the draft, ranking all three in his second round.  

So of course he was going to give Montreal high marks. 

 

He was also higher on Ylonen and Kokaniemi than any other scout, which is why I am just pointing out he is an outlier to the rest of the group-think. 

[hab29RETIRED]

6 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I appreciate alfredoh's effort to get at deeper root causes of the team's suckage. 

 

But at the end of the day, 6 years is enough for any competent GM to assemble a strong team. This is doubly true for someone like MB who was gifted elite, young core pieces and a high (3rd overall) draft pick. I'm sorry, but whatever Bob's and Goat's mistakes, this mess is entirely on the bum currently desecrating the GM's office.

Yep.how long was Shanahan in charge of the leafs??  He inherited a worse mess and they are on their way to be a powerhouse as soon as they shore up the defence more.

[Commandant]

3 hours ago, Trizzak said:

 

He was also higher on Ylonen and Kokaniemi than any other scout, which is why I am just pointing out he is an outlier to the rest of the group-think. 

 

I think people hate bergevin so much that there is an assumption that our prospects are crap out there on Twitter and other places.  I dont believe it to be true.

 

Ive been hard on the habs when warranted.  I had them 27th a year ago.

 

This year was a huge year for habs prospects though.

 

The draft was a home run compared yo my list (and since my list is done predraft i cant be biased to the habs.  I have no idea who they will pick)

 

Poehling. Evans mete scherbak brook fleury juulsen and primeau all massively upgraded their outlook as prospects.

 

Guys like tzyska bitten lindgren vejdemo lernout all stayed about the same.

 

The only prospects i was down on vs a year ago are ikonen, mcniven, and walford

 

Thats a damn good year for improving a prospect group

[alfredoh2009]

14 hours ago, Commandant said:

Cole was 100% signed by Gauthier not Gainey.

 

Gainey resigned in early 2010.

 

Cole was signed in july 2011.

 

Gainey also made the Schneider and Lang trades.  That was 2009.

 

I think your timelines are off.

I double checked.

1) yes Cole was 100% signed by Gainey

2) Gainey was the one who traded away a 2nd in 2010 (for Lang) and a 3rd in 2010 (for Schneider)

=> I stand corrected

 

But I stand my case to consider Gauthier a horrible, terrible, incompetent GM in drafting and trading: Only Gallagher remains (as a fluke)

Gainey had that one draft year (2007) where he did great. But he relied mostly on signing UFAs...

 

===============

I think Bergevin is GM'ing above league average, but made three really bad mistakes in giving up two 2nds for Shaw, allowing Lefebre to screw up development for so long and not re-signing Radulov.

I am mostly fine with the rest of his moves

Edited August 28, 2018 by alfredoh2009
Deleted "For a rookie GM," , he is not a rookie anymore

[Commandant]

Gms dont make the draft picks though

 

Timmins does.

 

They might tell him who to take in the first round.  Or they might say get me a big player... or an offensive defenceman or something.... but they arent making the picks.

 

The gm doesnt have time to be a gm and scout for 7 rounds too

[alfredoh2009]

Timmins has been the chief scout for both PG and MB (I only want to focus on those two). So what you are saying applies to both PG and MB.

Out of the two, I would take MB any day over PG. It is not even close.

 

That's all I am saying. MB did not inherit a loaded franchise with a stanley-cup caliber roster and elite prospects. A good core, yes; but not the 70's Canadiens that he then ran into the mud.

 

 

[Machine of Loving Grace]

2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Timmins has been the chief scout for both PG and MB (I only want to focus on those two). So what you are saying applies to both PG and MB.

Out of the two, I would take MB any day over PG. It is not even close.

 

That's all I am saying. MB did not inherit a loaded franchise with a stanley-cup caliber roster and elite prospects. A good core, yes; but not the 70's Canadiens that he then ran into the mud.

 

He inherited a team better than he thought it was and then didn't react to how good it was until it was too late. He thought he had a rebuilding club and was shocked when they won their division in 2013. In 2014 he added Briere and some goons. That was it until the deadline when he finally added a guy in Vanek. They went to the ECF. In 2015 they had one of the best records in the regular season and did nothing to make the offence better. Only added Petry. In 2016 he thought Semin, Kassian, and Flash was all the club needed. They started out strong and nosedived. In 2017 he finally added to the offence with Radulov but every other decision he had was rooted in grit and toughness. The club won their division but was fragile. 2018 comes around and they just plain suck without Radulov and Markov. So bad in fact this club is now a lottery team with no future.

 

So no, he didn't inherit a Cup contending team. He wasn't Brian Burke in 2005 getting the Ducks. But it was a team better than its 2011-2012 record indicated, which he didn't pay attention to, and he didn't react anywhere near fast enough to make them a contender. And in doing that, his talent in their prime aged out of their great contracts, and the club is now a bizarre shambles of half "attempt to make the playoffs" and half "we're just collecting prospects". 

 

Bergevin isn't a guy who ran the 70s Canadiens into the mud. Bergevin is the guy who had a perfect opportunity to build a Cup contender while his division and conference was weak and instead wouldn't pull the trigger. And now his division is strong, his conference is strong, and he's wasted the 20s of the best goalie in the world.

[Commandant]

No one has the 70s canadiens.

 

He inherited a core that would have multiple 100 plus point seasons and a trip to the conference finals.

 

He inherited a future vezina and hart winner.  A norris winner (and 3 time nominee).. a 5 time 30 goal winger... another 30 goal winger.   Anda number 3 overall pick.

 

All of these pieces were under the age of 25 

 

And he never added a centre to that nucleus.  Somehow... everyone and their mother knew on the day he was hired.   Priority #1 was a top centre.. and he let desharnais take that role for each of his first 4 years

[alfredoh2009]

I am not saying MB is the second coming of Jesus, far from it.

All I am saying is that he is above league average and far better than Gauthier.

 

I don't feel like doing a team-by-team comparison of which of the lower-half of the league underperformed worse than the Canadiens. The Senators come to mind, Dallas hasn't won a cup neither and they come to mind, NY Rangers San Jose, etc.

 

My only point is that MB is not as incompetent as a few make it. He is human, has had more good moves than bad and I hope grows into a very good GM in the future. That's a glimmer of hope I like to have for myself in the coming season. Not only gloom and doom

 

Edited August 28, 2018 by alfredoh2009
Changed Sharks for Rangers

[DON]

9 hours ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

He inherited a team better than he thought it was and then didn't react to how good it was until it was too late. He thought he had a rebuilding club and was shocked when they won their division in 2013. In 2014 he added Briere and some goons. That was it until the deadline when he finally added a guy in Vanek. They went to the ECF. In 2015 they had one of the best records in the regular season and did nothing to make the offence better. Only added Petry. In 2016 he thought Semin, Kassian, and Flash was all the club needed. They started out strong and nosedived. In 2017 he finally added to the offence with Radulov but every other decision he had was rooted in grit and toughness. The club won their division but was fragile. 2018 comes around and they just plain suck without Radulov and Markov. So bad in fact this club is now a lottery team with no future.

 

So no, he didn't inherit a Cup contending team. He wasn't Brian Burke in 2005 getting the Ducks. But it was a team better than its 2011-2012 record indicated, which he didn't pay attention to, and he didn't react anywhere near fast enough to make them a contender. And in doing that, his talent in their prime aged out of their great contracts, and the club is now a bizarre shambles of half "attempt to make the playoffs" and half "we're just collecting prospects". 

 

Bergevin isn't a guy who ran the 70s Canadiens into the mud. Bergevin is the guy who had a perfect opportunity to build a Cup contender while his division and conference was weak and instead wouldn't pull the trigger. And now his division is strong, his conference is strong, and he's wasted the 20s of the best goalie in the world.

Had 2 bad years; 2016 and 2018 sucked and what was main reason?

Price won all of 26 games combined in those two years.

2016 Gallagher-Petry serious injuries

2018 #1 d also injured in game 1.

Even this year, if Price and Weber both healthy and play a normal year, odds are they will be in hunt for playoffs.

No future? Have you not read Commandant's posts about farm system? 

[Machine of Loving Grace]

2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I am not saying MB is the second coming of Jesus, far from it.

All I am saying is that he is above league average and far better than Gauthier.

 

I don't feel like doing a team-by-team comparison of which of the lower-half of the league underperformed worse than the Canadiens. The Senators come to mind, Dallas hasn't won a cup neither and they come to mind, NY Rangers San Jose, etc.

 

My only point is that MB is not as incompetent as a few make it. He is human, has had more good moves than bad and I hope grows into a very good GM in the future. That's a glimmer of hope I like to have for myself in the coming season. Not only gloom and doom

 

 

To keep Desharnais at centre from 2013 to 2017, screw up his 2013 third overall centre, and play a winger at centre despite all evidence you shouldn't, and that's just one of many issues. 

 

Grows into a good GM? That's the problem. You are looking at several years of failure and brushing it aside like it's the first month on the job. He got a team with good pieces and the best goalie on earth to hide a lot of issues and decided to sit on it until it was too late. That was Marc Bergevin. He protected a bad coach, was obsessed with toughness, screwed up down the middle, and thought tinkinering would somehow bring this team to a Cup. 

 

Like what confidence do you have that if Bergevin and Julien are still here in 2022, that Kotkaniemi would not be playing wing because Julien doesn't like him at centre? It's a very real possibility because Bergevin has learned nothing. Luckily that won't happen because I don't think see him surviving past this season. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

3 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I am not saying MB is the second coming of Jesus, far from it.

All I am saying is that he is above league average and far better than Gauthier.

 

I don't feel like doing a team-by-team comparison of which of the lower-half of the league underperformed worse than the Canadiens. The Senators come to mind, Dallas hasn't won a cup neither and they come to mind, NY Rangers San Jose, etc.

 

My only point is that MB is not as incompetent as a few make it. He is human, has had more good moves than bad and I hope grows into a very good GM in the future. That's a glimmer of hope I like to have for myself in the coming season. Not only gloom and doom

 

 

He is in no way, shape or form better than league average. He inherited fine pieces and wasted them. His biggest moves have been at best pointless lateral moves and, more plausibly, failed moves (Subban, Galy, Drouin). He did nothing over YEARS to address obvious roster needs (successors for Pleks and Markov; finding a single legit top-6 C). In fact he perversely refused to use the young C he had, jerking him around instead. He took and exciting young team that made the semi-finals and reduced it to the current garbage. He created a crisis by clinging to his bum-buddy Therrien long after that dolt should have been canned. He left an inept coach in charge for six frigging seasons at our most important 'developmental' spot in the organization. His team building model has lurched from toughness to character and now to speed, about five years after everyone else in the game had figured out the direction the league was taking. The guy has been negligent and hapless across the board.

 

Gauthier is an irrelevant comparator. MB is in the bottom tier of NHL GMs and, in terms of Habs GMs that lasted more than a cup of coffee, he is clearly the worst ever with the exception of Houle. The results are in. It's a record of failure. 

[Commandant]

 

There is no way he's above league average. 

 

At this point, only Chiarelli and Dorion are worse, and Dorion might only be because he's been handcuffed by Melnyk. 

 

I'd have more confidence in 28 other NHL GMs over Bergevin right now.