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2018-19 NHL General Discussion Thread


dlbalr

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17 hours ago, Commandant said:

The islanders pdo is crazy.  That team is still shit... just lucky.

 

Yeah, but luck is a funny thing. It can last a whole season/playoff before conking out.

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38 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Yeah, but luck is a funny thing. It can last a whole season/playoff before conking out.

I think Vegas also was "supposed" to fold sooner or later, but i dont even have a clue what PDO is.

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1 hour ago, DON said:

I think Vegas also was "supposed" to fold sooner or later, but i dont even have a clue what PDO is.

 

Ha ha, yeah, I had to look it up too https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analytics_(ice_hockey)

 

I learn more from Commandant's posts on this site than I do from 98% of commentary by paid experts.

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21 hours ago, Commandant said:

The islanders pdo is crazy.  That team is still shit... just lucky.

 

Where can you find that particular stat?

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9 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

I'm sure it's on a bunch of different stat sites but here's one: https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2019.html  (Scroll to the far right of the table - the Islanders are second in that category to Toronto.)

 

Awesome, thanks!

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34 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

I'm sure it's on a bunch of different stat sites but here's one: https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2019.html  (Scroll to the far right of the table - the Islanders are second in that category to Toronto.)

So Leafs are statistically ready for a correction and to fade as well?

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13 minutes ago, DON said:

So Leafs are statistically ready for a correction and to fade as well?

 

I'd say they have the offensive talent to outperform the average league-wide shooting percentage by a point or two so probably not.  The Islanders, on the other hand, aren't exactly loaded in natural firepower so a potential regression is likelier than a team like Toronto.

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15 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

I'd say they have the offensive talent to outperform the average league-wide shooting percentage by a point or two so probably not.  The Islanders, on the other hand, aren't exactly loaded in natural firepower so a potential regression is likelier than a team like Toronto.

However, Isles have given up the fewest goals in the league, would that be factored in? And they are already mid-league in scoring, so as long as defense holds up or even if declines somewhat, they should be ahead of most, no?

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

I'd say they have the offensive talent to outperform the average league-wide shooting percentage by a point or two so probably not.  The Islanders, on the other hand, aren't exactly loaded in natural firepower so a potential regression is likelier than a team like Toronto.

 

I so hope Toronto turns into a pumpkin. A disastrous playoff (or two) may force them into stupid managerial mistakes.

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1 hour ago, DON said:

However, Isles have given up the fewest goals in the league, would that be factored in? And they are already mid-league in scoring, so as long as defense holds up or even if declines somewhat, they should be ahead of most, no?

 

The PDO stat is even strength shooting percentage plus even strength save percentage. 

 

The shooting percentage is 0.8 above the league average but there are quite a few players scoring above their normal rates (Filppula, Nelson, Cizikas, even Bailey to an extent) so a small drop isn't crazy to expect. 

 

The ES save percentage is tops in the league, 16 points above the league average.  Is a tandem of Lehner and Greiss one that should be leading the league in ES SV%?  Based on their history, that shouldn't hold at this level for the rest of the season.  It's not going to revert all the way back to the league average at this point but a few points down is a few more goals allowed and probably a few more losses along the way without even factoring in any potential regression from the offence.

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5 hours ago, Trizzak said:

I think Trotz has that team ready to run through a brick wall for him, and they'll defy PDO norms straight to the playoffs.

 

6 hours ago, DON said:

I think Vegas also was "supposed" to fold sooner or later, but i dont even have a clue what PDO is.

 

Predictions of Vegas' demise were not based on PDO.  Which is why people have predicted them to be good again this year

 

Teams that were overperforming by PDO and came back to earth include

 

The Leafs team that looked like they wold make the playoffs before the twelve wheeler went off the cliff and Ron Wilson was fired

The Colorado team that made the playoffs in Roy's first year before crashing into a terrible team in future years

The Calgary team that saw Hartley win coach of the year that would crash going forward

A Minnesota team that was 1st overall in December and missed the playoffs a few years ago



On the opposite end

There was an LA team that barely made the playoffs and had a PDO that suggested they were unlucky and much better than their record, they went on to win the Stanley Cup

 

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1 hour ago, DON said:

So Leafs are statistically ready for a correction and to fade as well?

 

The Leafs may not fade.  There is some suggestion that they have the shooting talent on their team to have a high shooting percentage (Which is half of PDO) and that is sustainable.  On a team with Matthews, Tavares, Kadri, Marner, etc... they might have the shooting talent to maintain a high shooting percentage.  The Capitals have maintained a high shooting percentage for years

 

This is rare though, most teams can't do this but the leafs might be one

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1 hour ago, DON said:

However, Isles have given up the fewest goals in the league, would that be factored in? And they are already mid-league in scoring, so as long as defense holds up or even if declines somewhat, they should be ahead of most, no?

 

Do we expect Robin Lehner to be the League's Best goalie? Thomas Greiss to be up there too?

 

Do we think the Isles defence that was by far the worst in the NHL last season is now suddenly a top defence with no key additions, a big loss in Calvin DeHaan and a change in coach?

Trotz is great and all, but there is nothing in his history with Nashville or Washington that suggests his teams will vastly overperform their expected goals against. 

Yes his teams have been good defensively before but its never been like this.  This is still a huge outlier to his career which suggests it is unsustainable.

Looking deeper, he hasn't even improved the defence that much.  Its a little better which is what we'd expect.  What is crazy is Lehner and Greiss' performances.  Given their careers, that seems unsustainable  

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