tomh009 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 We are one-fifth through the 2018-2019 season, and I think all (most?) of us have been positively surprised by the team's performance so far. And more subjectively, I love how they are playing. But let's look at the numbers at the team level. The good: 7th in league overall 11th in league in goals scored/game 11th in league in PK % 10th in league in shots/game 6th in league in shots against/game 3rd in league in hits 2-0 in shootouts The bad: 22nd in league in goals allowed/game 26th in league in save percentage 9th in league in minor penalties The ugly: 29th in league in PP % 30th in league in FOW % 4th in league in giveaways 2nd in league in bench penalties 0-3 in overtime I believe the PP will improve when Weber gets back. Faceoffs will hopefully improve with experience (Kotkaniemi is a rookie and Domi has mostly played LW). The number of penalties and giveaways should be possible to improve with coaching. So I'm not too worried about those numbers. The big question is really the goaltending: can Price up his game? Can Niemi shine like he did last year (.929 save %)? With strong goaltending, even with no other changes, even without Weber, we could be leading the eastern conference right now. Which really is a shock after the low pre-season expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 I think the team will fall back a bit even with Weber returning. Price is a huge X-factor, however; and so is Max Domi. Can he keep playing like an elite #1 C? If he does, then that changes a lot of our calculations about what to expect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IN THE HEARTS OF MEN Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 i must be the only one who thinks these young lads are going to improve and get better rather then fall back as the season progresses and they see more and more ice time, play more games, and manage more situations! At this point Price cant get worst. Weber will be back to relegate either of benn/Alzner to the bench to make the D considerably better. As for Domi, although we can see his production slowing, he's proving very formidable non the less and propping Drouin up as much as possible. Kotkaniemi continues to improve and i can see his minutes increasing as we march into the playoffs. Cant say enough of Tatar's hard work put in and the relentlessness and passion of BG#11! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 I have to say some of those stats I don't like because they are not accurate. I take big issue with the giveaways stat. For some reason the Bell Centre is one of the top 3 arenas in the league for recording giveaways year in and year out. The Habs regularly have 2.5x as many giveaways per game at home as on the road, so I'm saying that stat means nothing. You have the same problem with Hits.... again we are a team where the Bell Centre simply records more hits than other rinks. Take those two stats and throw them right out the window. They are worthless. On a better note, look at advanced stats like Corsi and xG and we are doing extremely well, showing that this start hasn't been a mirage. And confirming that if our goaltending gets better this team can be even better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, Commandant said: I have to say some of those stats I don't like because they are not accurate. (...) On a better note, look at advanced stats like Corsi and xG and we are doing extremely well, showing that this start hasn't been a mirage. And confirming that if our goaltending gets better this team can be even better. I agree that those stats are too subjective to put much weight on those. The young team can improve on face-offs and power play. And, yes, if we get some good goaltending, this team could go places ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habsfan Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 LIk emost of us around here, I am pleasantly surprised to see the boys doing so well. I did NOT expect that this year. What I am seeing in the past 2 weeks however has got me a little concerned, but I`m not in panic mode just yet! My greatest concern has got to be with Carey. I'd like to see his demeanor change a little. I find that he's down on himself quite often this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 I wanted to wait for game 20 (~25% of the season) to share my thoughts, but now is as good a time to do that. I am surprised with the offense production, I didn't expect this much from Tatar and Domi. It seems like the professional scouting of those two players was good. I am also surprised how well Ouellet and Benn have played this season, the rest of the Defence seems to be near what was expected, but these two have had a good bounce-back season so far. They are my picks for the bottom pair. I am also very impressed with the new coaching hires, both at the NHL level and at the AHL level. It is starting to become evident how these new hires have had a positive influence on the team. I can't wait for Weber and Byron to make it back to the lineup so that we can get some player movement again and see what this team may be able to achieve this season. I am still hoping we can trade for another 1st round pick in 2019 and that we prepare the way for Suzuki and Poehling (punting a coule of our bottom 6 forwards out of the way). I am enjoying watching the team play, win or lose, but I have no expectations for them this year. My hopes/expectations are for next year and thereafter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Suzuki and Poehling ... and we still have some good prospects in Europe, too, with Olofsson, Ylonen and Romanov. But that'll be for next year, or later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IN THE HEARTS OF MEN Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Center depth is actually a strength next year... Domi Kkotkaniemi Danault Peca Evans* Poehling Suzuki Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 hours ago, tomh009 said: Suzuki and Poehling ... and we still have some good prospects in Europe, too, with Olofsson, Ylonen and Romanov. But that'll be for next year, or later. Dont be surprised if josh brook pushes for a spot next year or the year after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 hours ago, Commandant said: Dont be surprised if josh brook pushes for a spot next year or the year after. If that happens, there woukd there be room for Petry ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said: If that happens, there woukd there be room for Petry ? Pushing for a spot, and playing 22 minutes a game in the top 4 aren't the same thing You aren't going to expect a raw rookie to take Petry's responsibility Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 55 minutes ago, Commandant said: Pushing for a spot, and playing 22 minutes a game in the top 4 aren't the same thing You aren't going to expect a raw rookie to take Petry's responsibility No kidding! Petry is a core piece on this blueline, like it or not; and it's hard right now to perceive who could replace him in the short- to medium-term. Mete's development has stalled, Reilly is dodgy as a top-4 guy, Juulsen, I dunno...it's basically Petry or bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Commandant said: Pushing for a spot, and playing 22 minutes a game in the top 4 aren't the same thing You aren't going to expect a raw rookie to take Petry's responsibility Not a rookie, but Juulsen would be better next year and Brooks, Fleury or Benn would be fine as a 6th defender. The CH will be deep at right-D next year if Brooks starts knocking at the NHL roster's door Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habopotamus Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said: Not a rookie, but Juulsen would be better next year and Brooks, Fleury or Benn would be fine as a 6th defender. The CH will be deep at right-D next year if Brooks starts knocking at the NHL roster's door Benn is a ufa, after this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Habopotamus said: Benn is a ufa, after this year You are right, I forgot. Ouellet too. Schlemko has one more year If Brooks, Fleury and even Lernout are close to a bottom paid Right-D level next year, I would get rid of Pertry to make room on the right side instead of moving a Benn who seems to be the best suited for bottom pair or 7th D duty than Schlemko or Alzner I think Juulsen may win the 2nd Right-D spot behind Weber if he continues progressing this year: not as a point producer but a reliable #4 Petry is good, and he could get the CH the best return Edited November 13, 2018 by alfredoh2009 Added *not as a point prod...* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said: Petry is good, and he could get the CH the best return Gallagher is better and would get a better return and Habs arnt short of wingers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said: Not a rookie, but Juulsen would be better next year and Brooks, Fleury or Benn would be fine as a 6th defender. The CH will be deep at right-D next year if Brooks starts knocking at the NHL roster's door None of that replaces Petry. I don't understand the Petry hate. If you look at analytics, he's a legit top 20-25 defenceman in the entire league. As a team's #2 defenceman (which he'll be when Weber gets back) that's the start of a strong group. Give us another legit top 4 guy on the Left Side, and we would be looking at a strong group instead of a weak one. Fleury I doubt is ready next year. Lernout, I doubt is ever ready to be more than a #7 defenceman Benn is not a top 4 D, and is a UFA anyways. I don't see anyone on the roster who replaces Petry in the shirt term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I don't hate Petry, I like him. But to finish the retooling, we need to trade one last meaningful 27-to-30 year old to get a top D prospect or a high draft pick. The CH is far from being a cup contender and we need to manage Petry/Gallagher asset value the same way we did it with Pacioretty/Plekanec Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IN THE HEARTS OF MEN Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Nowhere does Gallagher’s name need to be involved in any of this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said: Nowhere does Gallagher’s name need to be involved in any of this... Is true though. Gallagher's value would be pretty friggin high at the moment. Not that Habs would trade him though or i want him traded...just saying is all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said: I don't hate Petry, I like him. But to finish the retooling, we need to trade one last meaningful 27-to-30 year old to get a top D prospect or a high draft pick. The CH is far from being a cup contender and we need to manage Petry/Gallagher asset value the same way we did it with Pacioretty/Plekanec Its okay to have veterans on the team to provide leadership for younger players. Especially a veteran who can play a huge role like Petry can. Weber has also been off for a almost a full year at this point. Even when he's back, it might take a while for him to be 100% both in his play and in his endurance. If that happens, and there is no Petry we are up shit creek. While the Habs might not be a cup contender, what is the value in playing competitive games and possibly playoff games for Kotkaniemi, Juulsen, Mete, Domi, and other young players? We've seen other teams have a hard time getting out of the spiral of losing (Edmonton, Toronto from 2005-2015, Arizona, etc...). They have talented players, but those players get stuck in a culture of losing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 (edited) At the 25% mark, the team is outperforming all expectations. Even from "glass half-full" fans like me, it has been a joyful ride up to now. Despite not having league leaders, all star goaltending and our best defender, the new system and attitude (yes, I have to mention it) have yielded positive results. Just based on Stats, it appears that the return of Weber in the next season segment shall help Danault's trio who tend to play against the other team's top lines. That should also improve Domi's line, because that means that Petry shall be playing behind them. If they can tighten their 5-player game, that should be a very dangerous second quintet. Peca, Deslaurier and Hudon are not producing much, and they are hardly holding their own against bigger/physical teams. I hope the logjam on D helps find better defenders to when they are on the ice. As for Kotka's line. They are doing just fine. Kotka is getting better. Even if he cools down during the next part of the schedule, I look to him holding his own on the Defensive-side of their workload. A break from the NHL to go to the world juniors may be good for Kotkaniemi, but I do not know how the CH may chose one over the other (NHL & WJ'19). The downsides so far have been the lack of powerplay goals, the defensive breakdowns they tend to have far too often, and the draft ranking in 2019. Also, the team still needs a top LD despite their record. It will be interesting to see how the team manages those long term issues while they are having short-term success. Edited November 19, 2018 by alfredoh2009 add pp and D breakdowns to downsides 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IN THE HEARTS OF MEN Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 there is ZERO% chance Kotkaniemi is even considered for the WJC. zero! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Agreed hes not going. No way. Hes the third line c. That isnt happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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