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HABS @ WILD, DEC 11, 20:00 ET


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18 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

4-0

and I really want Petry dealt for a first round pick or two seconds...

he is soft 

 

I want a hell of a lot more than a 1st round pick or Two seconds if I'm going to move a defenceman with a great contract and fantastic analytics. 

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Until the last couple of minutes, I thought the Habs played a lot better that period despite the brutal results.  This'll be time to rest someone like Weber a bit more - there's no need to have him near the 25-minute mark tonight. 

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26 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

Until the last couple of minutes, I thought the Habs played a lot better that period despite the brutal results.  This'll be time to rest someone like Weber a bit more - there's no need to have him near the 25-minute mark tonight. 

 

Feels a lot like the New Jersey Game.  Not giving up that many chances overall, but the chances they gave up were almost all prime chances. 

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10 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

I want a hell of a lot more than a 1st round pick or Two seconds if I'm going to move a defenceman with a great contract and fantastic analytics. 

Possession numbers are great, but he cannot defend: He has the worst on ice percentage on even strength! Th egolies have a save percentage of 87% when he is on the ice !!!!!!

 

I would trade him to a contender for a first round pick. The CH needs more a top pair LD in 2 years than a "Paul Coffee light" right now.

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I am not an Engels fan, but his take on this game is in-line on what I think:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/grinding-style-play-gives-canadiens-fits-vs-wild/

Grinding style of play gives Canadiens fits

It has happened a few times this year. That's why I think Peca and Hudon are in trouble and that the current fourth line will probably stay as long as they continue to grind it out every shift.

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Niemi was absolutely brutal in this one, it seemed like every puck directed towards the net had a chance of going in. I actually think if Price started the game looking the way he did in relief, the score would have been close. 

 

I also dislike not putting Rielly into the game against his former team. It seems to me that players have more of an impact than normal in those situations. 

 

On to the next one

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3 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Possession numbers are great, but he cannot defend: He has the worst on ice percentage on even strength! Th egolies have a save percentage of 87% when he is on the ice !!!!!!

 

I would trade him to a contender for a first round pick. The CH needs more a top pair LD in 2 years than a "Paul Coffee light" right now.

 

I don't agree at all that he can not defend, or that he is a Paul Coffey light. 

 

The On-Ice Save percentage is a small sample size and more a factor of luck than his actual play.  

His relative Corsi is +2.4 so he does not have the worst percentage at even strength. 

His xGA is 20.43, his actual GA is 32, which clearly indicates the on-ice save percentage is more a factor of luck, then him giving up too many high quality chances against. ... 11.5 more goals against this season, then should be expected based on the quality of chances he's giving up, is something that is down to him being unlucky with the goaltending behind him, not him giving up too much. 

 

His xGF% is 55.11 which is very, very strong. 

I can see trading him.... but given his stats, and his contract.... his value is FAR MORE than just a first round pick (likely to be 25+ cause the team acquiring him is likely to be a contender).  I'd be looking for a package very similar to what we got for Pacioretty if I'm going to move him. The difference would be that I would want a high quality LHD prospect instead of C (Suzuki).  I'd want a Suzuki-level of top prospect at LHD.... an NHL-level defenceman who is out of favour like Tatar was.... and a 2nd round pick.

 

Petry is a lot better asset than he's being given credit for here. 

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

I don't agree at all that he can not defend, or that he is a Paul Coffey light. 

 

The On-Ice Save percentage is a small sample size and more a factor of luck than his actual play.  

His relative Corsi is +2.4 so he does not have the worst percentage at even strength. 

His xGA is 20.43, his actual GA is 32, which clearly indicates the on-ice save percentage is more a factor of luck, then him giving up too many high quality chances against. ... 11.5 more goals against this season, then should be expected based on the quality of chances he's giving up, is something that is down to him being unlucky with the goaltending behind him, not him giving up too much. 

 

His xGF% is 55.11 which is very, very strong. 

I can see trading him.... but given his stats, and his contract.... his value is FAR MORE than just a first round pick (likely to be 25+ cause the team acquiring him is likely to be a contender).  I'd be looking for a package very similar to what we got for Pacioretty if I'm going to move him. The difference would be that I would want a high quality LHD prospect instead of C (Suzuki).  I'd want a Suzuki-level of top prospect at LHD.... an NHL-level defenceman who is out of favour like Tatar was.... and a 2nd round pick.

 

Petry is a lot better asset than he's being given credit for here. 

Thank you Commandant for taking the time to look at the stats.

It shows how my limited knowledge on what to look for in these.

 

If we can get as much for Petry as we did for Pecioretty, I do not see why we are not doing it. I'll put your suggestion on the trade proposal thread. 

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We are not doing it, because Petry was necessary while Weber was out. 

 

Also even with Weber back our defence would be very weak without Petry and we could make the playoffs.  Losing him would put a big dent in that. 

 

With Petry signed til 2021, there is no rush to trade him right this minute, he'll still have the same value next season if Juulsen is ready to be a top 4 and Brook or Fleury is ready to make the team next year. 

 

And lastly, it took a long time after we started shopping Pacioretty to get the deal that we wanted, It would be similar with Petry, you wait for a team willing to give what his value is. 

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Ok, the "Petry watch" can wait until training camp 2019 or the trade deadline 2020.

 

But I would do it sooner to get a prospect now that can develop with the "2020 core"

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1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Ok, the "Petry watch" can wait until training camp 2019 or the trade deadline 2020.

 

But I would do it sooner to get a prospect now that can develop with the "2020 core"

Not a chance. Even Sergachev couldnt replace Petry's role now, so it likely will be awhile before draft a d-man as good as Petry is now and solid-d play takes many games to get up to speed.

Petry also allows Juulsen to get eased into NHL.

Sure he would be a great trading chip...but Gallagher is better one and at a more expendable position (RH Suzuki could likely fill his spot next year and be eased into play at centre).

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With kotkaniemi Danault Domi and Evans likely earning a 4th line role. Suzuki will more then likely only make next years Habs as a winger. Keep in mind he’s played way more wing then C at the junior level.

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Next year's roster is really hard to predict. Poehling may win the 4th line spot and jump ahead of Evans;  Domi could move to the wing on a line centered by Kotka with Drouin at the other end. Lehkonen could be dealt instead of Gallagher to make room for Suzuki on the third line....

 

Back to the topic: I was infuriated by Petry's play in the game against the Wild. He is a good RD; but when he is soft (similar to Drouin) I just feel like trading him.

 

contract wise, and expansion-draft wise, it makes more sense to keep him. But man oh man, I wish he was a lefty

Edited by alfredoh2009
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1 hour ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

With kotkaniemi Danault Domi and Evans likely earning a 4th line role. Suzuki will more then likely only make next years Habs as a winger. Keep in mind he’s played way more wing then C at the junior level.

Bob McKenzie basically said "Suzuki may be 1st or 2nd line centre on world junior team, or could play the wing."

 

https://www.tsn.ca/radio/montreal-690/mckenzie-on-habs-prospects-with-team-canada-1.1225063

 

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