Why are the habs so hit and miss?

[Meller93]

Is it just me, or do the Habs have wilder swings in performance than most teams?

 

Its like they’re either garbage or a Stanley cup contender. They’ll dominate for a run of 2-3 games, and then string together 2-3 shpoop shows.

 

Obviously every team has its ups and downs, but I feel the Habs disproportionately so. It could be fan bias but I’m not so sure.

 

What’s the deal here? 

[Commandant]

Inconsistency is the nature of a young team that is still missing a few pieces to be a true contender. 

[Neech]

Our dominant performances have been against weak opposition.  We're somewhere around the 20th best team in the league, veritable NHL purgatory.

[DON]

1 hour ago, Meller93 said:

Is it just me, or do the Habs have wilder swings in performance than most teams?

 

Its like they’re either garbage or a Stanley cup contender. They’ll dominate for a run of 2-3 games, and then string together 2-3 shpoop shows.

 

Obviously every team has its ups and downs, but I feel the Habs disproportionately so. It could be fan bias but I’m not so sure.

 

What’s the deal here? 

Yes Fan bias.

[Meller93]

1 hour ago, Neech said:

Our dominant performances have been against weak opposition.  We're somewhere around the 20th best team in the league, veritable NHL purgatory.

Luckily I think our Kotkaniemi, Suzuki and Poehling drafts could boost us out of purgatory in 2 years time.

[Neech]

7 minutes ago, Meller93 said:

Luckily I think our Kotkaniemi, Suzuki and Poehling drafts could boost us out of purgatory in 2 years time.

 

I have hopes for those guys, but that doesn't exactly project as the core of a contender when you look at the elite young talent around the league.  We still need more horses in the stable.

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, Neech said:

Our dominant performances have been against weak opposition.  We're somewhere around the 20th best team in the league, veritable NHL purgatory.

 

We all know that the team isn't a cup contender. 

 

Its also natural that teams look better against weaker competition than they do against strong teams. 

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, Neech said:

 

I have hopes for those guys, but that doesn't exactly project as the core of a contender when you look at the elite young talent around the league.  We still need more horses in the stable.

 

I think Kotkaniemi, Domi, Poehling.... with Drouin Gallagher, Suzuki, Tatar, Lehkonen on wings.... plus seeing one of Ikonen, Ylonen, Fonstad, Hillis, Olofsson, etc... develop would be a very strong group up front. 

 

goaltending with Price and Primeau should be fine. 

 

The issue is on defence... but even then, you have Mete, Juulsen, Brook, Fleury.... need to see one or two of Romanov, Tyszka, Walford, Harris, develop and add more LHD prospects. 

 

I don't think it needs to be a huge overhaul though... 

[BCHabnut]

3 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

I think Kotkaniemi, Domi, Poehling.... with Drouin Gallagher, Suzuki, Tatar, Lehkonen on wings.... plus seeing one of Ikonen, Ylonen, Fonstad, Hillis, Olofsson, etc... develop would be a very strong group up front. 

 

goaltending with Price and Primeau should be fine. 

 

The issue is on defence... but even then, you have Mete, Juulsen, Brook, Fleury.... need to see one or two of Romanov, Tyszka, Walford, Harris, develop and add more LHD prospects. 

 

I don't think it needs to be a huge overhaul though... 

I am really curious about romanov. I've read good things. What a difference a year makes.  The prospect pool looks much better than a couple years ago.

[Neech]

5 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

I think Kotkaniemi, Domi, Poehling.... with Drouin Gallagher, Suzuki, Tatar, Lehkonen on wings.... plus seeing one of Ikonen, Ylonen, Fonstad, Hillis, Olofsson, etc... develop would be a very strong group up front. 

 

goaltending with Price and Primeau should be fine. 

 

The issue is on defence... but even then, you have Mete, Juulsen, Brook, Fleury.... need to see one or two of Romanov, Tyszka, Walford, Harris, develop and add more LHD prospects. 

 

I don't think it needs to be a huge overhaul though... 

 

Sure, we have prospects.  But not much elite talent.  A bunch of 2nd liners on contenders.  Nothing that could put us in the same stratosphere as Tampa or Toronto.  I'm worried that we're on the track of continued mediocrity.  This season strikes me as one where we don't have much to play for and that we'd really benefit from adding a blue chipper to the prospect pool.  Unfortunately that doesn't look likely - picking around #12 seems like the most probable scenario.  

 

How much better would our future look with Sergachev instead of Drouin?  I mean Drouin's a fine player, but we really need that dynamic defence prospect.  

[DON]

1 hour ago, BCHabnut said:

I am really curious about romanov. I've read good things. What a difference a year makes.  The prospect pool looks much better than a couple years ago.

Romanov and Oloffson are playing today, 10:00 EST

[Commandant]

52 minutes ago, Neech said:

 

Sure, we have prospects.  But not much elite talent.  A bunch of 2nd liners on contenders.  Nothing that could put us in the same stratosphere as Tampa or Toronto.  I'm worried that we're on the track of continued mediocrity.  This season strikes me as one where we don't have much to play for and that we'd really benefit from adding a blue chipper to the prospect pool.  Unfortunately that doesn't look likely - picking around #12 seems like the most probable scenario.  

 

How much better would our future look with Sergachev instead of Drouin?  I mean Drouin's a fine player, but we really need that dynamic defence prospect.  

 

Kk and suzuki look like potential elite talent.

 

Domi and drouin have played like elite talent at 5v5 this year.

 

Brook looks like a potential elite talent on the blue line.

 

 

[Meller93]

14 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Kk and suzuki look like potential elite talent.

 

Domi and drouin have played like elite talent at 5v5 this year.

 

Brook looks like a potential elite talent on the blue line.

 

 

Brook has been something to watch this year. Super excited to watch him at the World juniors. 

 

Playing on his off side, it’ll be an interesting way to see him.

 

that influx of talent you mentioned could turn us into a contender if they work out

[Neech]

15 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Kk and suzuki look like potential elite talent.

 

Domi and drouin have played like elite talent at 5v5 this year.

 

Brook looks like a potential elite talent on the blue line.

 

 

 

If those guys are elite, what word do you use for Matthews or Marner or Eichel or Pastrnak?  We don't have that level of elite talent in the prospect pool or on our squad.  Our guys are clearly a tier below with a chance at their very best projections to move into those echelons, but we know how often those pan out.  Go back and look at your expectations for Galchenyuk five years ago - I believe he's failed to fulfill them (they were optimistic).  Brook at this point has a better chance of never becoming an NHL regular than of becoming a first pairing defenceman.  We need at least a few more sure things in our system to hope to move out of the dreaded middle class of the league.

[Commandant]

Lets Be realistic here.  

 

The team is not a cup contender.

 

This team is also not finishing with a top 5 pick this year... barring catastrophic injuries in the second half of the year or a flukey lottery win they are not collapsing to get down to that level.

 

We will likely pick somewhere between 12-18.  

 

I see little difference in value between the 12th pick and the 18th pick. The chances of picking an NHL player at 12 is not much better than 18.  The chances of winning the lottery at 12 are negligible. I'd much rather make the playoffs, and get our young players playoff experience than worry about that small improvement in a pick.  Heck even just playing in a playoff race down the stretch, rather than playing meaningless hockey, will be better for young players who haven't seen that much (or in some cases at all) at this point in their careers. 

 

This team's forward group is led by young players, you aren't going to get them to stop trying and tank, players don't do that.  You aren't going to trade them away either.  Bergevin has clearly said he's not trading Weber or Price.  Even if he was, their contracts mean that these are off-season moves, not mid-season ones.

 

Tanking just isn't going to happen this year.  There is no way for it to realistically be done and get in the top of the draft.  So keep developping what you have.  Don't trade prospects or picks for older players or rentals, and hope that you can find a guy like Pastranak (picked in the 20s) in the draft.  

 

 

[Neech]

I'm of the opinion that we've outperformed our talent level so far and that we'll ultimately fall out of playoff contention.  The shellackings that Minny and Boston gave us point to this - two good but not great teams.  I agree that tanking is going to be tough to pull off after our hot start.  If we're being practical, wouldn't missing the playoffs and getting rid of the Bergevin regime be the most useful outcome from this lost season?  I'll be happy for a feel good playoff run when Suzuki and Poehling and Brook and all our supposed future talent is driving it.  

 

I also disagree that 6 spots isn't that big of a deal in the draft.  It absolutely is if you believe in your scouting department (which I believe in less than I did a few years ago).  So I think we may have to eat sh*t in the short term for gains in the long term.  I don't believe in this management group and want them gone, and I think we need more top end talent in the system to have any real hopes for contention down the road.  So maybe it's best to lose lose lose for now.    

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, Neech said:

I'm of the opinion that we've outperformed our talent level so far and that we'll ultimately fall out of playoff contention.  The shellackings that Minny and Boston gave us point to this - two good but not great teams.  I agree that tanking is going to be tough to pull off after our hot start.  If we're being practical, wouldn't missing the playoffs and getting rid of the Bergevin regime be the most useful outcome from this lost season?  I'll be happy for a feel good playoff run when Suzuki and Poehling and Brook and all our supposed future talent is driving it.  

 

I also disagree that 6 spots isn't that big of a deal in the draft.  It absolutely is if you believe in your scouting department (which I believe in less than I did a few years ago).  So I think we may have to eat sh*t in the short term for gains in the long term.  I don't believe in this management group and want them gone, and I think we need more top end talent in the system to have any real hopes for contention down the road.  So maybe it's best to lose lose lose for now.    

 

Once you get past the top 5, it really isn't a big difference. 

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

[alfredoh2009]

4 hours ago, Neech said:

I'm of the opinion that we've outperformed our talent level so far and that we'll ultimately fall out of playoff contention.  The shellackings that Minny and Boston gave us point to this - two good but not great teams.  I agree that tanking is going to be tough to pull off after our hot start.  If we're being practical, wouldn't missing the playoffs and getting rid of the Bergevin regime be the most useful outcome from this lost season?  I'll be happy for a feel good playoff run when Suzuki and Poehling and Brook and all our supposed future talent is driving it.  

 

I also disagree that 6 spots isn't that big of a deal in the draft.  It absolutely is if you believe in your scouting department (which I believe in less than I did a few years ago).  So I think we may have to eat sh*t in the short term for gains in the long term.  I don't believe in this management group and want them gone, and I think we need more top end talent in the system to have any real hopes for contention down the road.  So maybe it's best to lose lose lose for now.    

My opinion is that the CH should be building for the 2021-2022 season, Using tools (cap space) and managing assets to build a contender to come up with the current prospects.

I don't care much for the playoffs this year, but I care about seems the depth players like Reilly and Kulak get better and for the prospects like Suzuki and Brooks to dominate.

 

I would love for the CH to get a second 1st round draft in 2019 to help us get there

[Commandant]

The underlying numbers dont suggest a team that is pverperforming their talent.  This team has been exceptional at 5v5. They are succeeding in possession not in an abnormally high shooting percentage.  They arent the type of numbers that suggest an imminent collapse.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I haven't been able to follow the team super closely this season, for a host of reasons. But I want to pitch in here to make three points.

 

1. Neech seems to be 100% right. The Habs have a bunch of good young players and prospects. None appear to be truly top-end elite. (I live in Vancouver. When was the last time the Habs had rookies step in and play like either Brock Boeser or Elias Pettersson? Answer: PK Subban. No one in the current crop is at that level).

 

2. That said, this team is constructed with Weber and Price as its elite players. Will they still be 'elite' (if Price even is anymore, which I increasingly doubt) when the team enters its supposed window? We'd better hope so. If so, though, then they 'count'.

 

3. You can win the Cup without a big crop of elite players. LA did it twice, Boston once. I've said for years that if the Habs win, it will be by rolling four lines, beating teams with speed, scoring depth, and great netminding. Think of last year's Vegas model, just better. Everyone is always dazzled by the superstars, and sure, superstars help, but you can win without them if you have fine players up and down your lineup. Since a long term tank job will never happen here, this has to be our aim. We need to draft and develop better than our opponents, not relying on top 10 can't-miss picks.

[Neech]

7 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

 

2. That said, this team is constructed with Weber and Price as its elite players. Will they still be 'elite' (if Price even is anymore, which I increasingly doubt) when the team enters its supposed window? We'd better hope so. If so, though, then they 'count'.

 

 

Price hasn't looked elite in a while, and to me Weber is borderline elite.  We were relying on Markov a lot in our one playoff season with Shwebs.  The shot is elite, but his skating keeps him out of the upper echelon in my books.  Not a great puck handler either.  He does, however, have the elite ability of being allowed to crosscheck at will.

 

To your third point, Boston and LA both had very strong groups of forwards.  If you don't want to call Kopitar or Bergeron elite, that's fine, but they're still better than anything we have.  Same for Kreijci or Carter.  You're right that in the NHL you don't necessarily need a top-10 player to win it all, and you can instead have several top-50 players, for instance.  We're still a long way off from that territory, which is why we need to focus on stockpiling future talent. 

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, Neech said:

 

Price hasn't looked elite in a while, and to me Weber is borderline elite.  We were relying on Markov a lot in our one playoff season with Shwebs.  The shot is elite, but his skating keeps him out of the upper echelon in my books.  Not a great puck handler either.  He does, however, have the elite ability of being allowed to crosscheck at will.

 

To your third point, Boston and LA both had very strong groups of forwards.  If you don't want to call Kopitar or Bergeron elite, that's fine, but they're still better than anything we have.  Same for Kreijci or Carter.  You're right that in the NHL you don't necessarily need a top-10 player to win it all, and you can instead have several top-50 players, for instance.  We're still a long way off from that territory, which is why we need to focus on stockpiling future talent. 

 

At the same age as Kotkaniemi is right now.  (17 points in 34 NHL games)

 

Kopitar was playing in the Swedish Elite League, and had 20 points in 47 games.

Bergeron had 39 points in 71 NHL games.

 

Explain to me again why Kotkaniemi can't reach at least that level, or be an elite player when he is fully developped. 

[Neech]

41 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

 

Explain to me again why Kotkaniemi can't reach at least that level, or be an elite player when he is fully developped. 

 

He can and I'm rooting for it, but it's far from a sure thing.  I'm not going to bank on the most optimistic projections of our young players.  

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

3 hours ago, Neech said:

 

Price hasn't looked elite in a while, and to me Weber is borderline elite.  We were relying on Markov a lot in our one playoff season with Shwebs.  The shot is elite, but his skating keeps him out of the upper echelon in my books.  Not a great puck handler either.  He does, however, have the elite ability of being allowed to crosscheck at will.

 

To your third point, Boston and LA both had very strong groups of forwards.  If you don't want to call Kopitar or Bergeron elite, that's fine, but they're still better than anything we have.  Same for Kreijci or Carter.  You're right that in the NHL you don't necessarily need a top-10 player to win it all, and you can instead have several top-50 players, for instance.  We're still a long way off from that territory, which is why we need to focus on stockpiling future talent. 

 

I think the Habs can generate players of the calibre of Kopitar, Carter, etc. Kotkaniemi may become that, for example. So might Drouin or Domi. What we don't have are bona-fide superstars (Crosby, Ovechkin, Matthews, Tavares, etc.).

 

I actually tend to agree with your assessments of both Price and Weber. Your boldfaced comment is hilarious, and bizarrely 100% true, a real testament to how biased and frankly stupid NHL refereeing is. Nevertheless, the fact that Weber gets away with murder because he's a Good Old Boy does work to both his advantage and that of the Habs. Only when he loses a step, and it starts to become really egregious, will his trips to the box spike upwards - and that will be a sure indicator of his decline IMHO.

[Neech]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

 

I actually tend to agree with your assessments of both Price and Weber. Your boldfaced comment is hilarious, and bizarrely 100% true, a real testament to how biased and frankly stupid NHL refereeing is. Nevertheless, the fact that Weber gets away with murder because he's a Good Old Boy does work to both his advantage and that of the Habs. Only when he loses a step, and it starts to become really egregious, will his trips to the box spike upwards - and that will be a sure indicator of his decline IMHO.

 

I'm worried about him losing that step within the next couple of years, and think it would be best to move off that contract while he still has value seeing as we probably won't be contending in that time span.  

 

Price, meanwhile, has to rehabilitate his value before he becomes tradeable, and even then not many teams would want that cap hit in goal.  That contract has the potential of becoming the worst albatross in the league if Carey is just average.