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Jesperi Kotkaniemi


xXx..CK..xXx

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With only 13 games remaining, Kotkaniemi stands 6th place in scoring amongst rookies and 3rd from his draft class.

 

Elias Pettersson: 58 GP 58 PTS

Dahlin: 68 GP 37 PTS

Andreas Johnsson: 61 GP 36 PTS

Tkachuk: 58 GP 36 PTS

Colin White: 63 GP 35 PTS

Kotkaniemi: 67 GP 32 PTS

Dominik Kahun: 68 GP 31 PTS

Svechnikov: 68 GP 29 PTS

 

It's interesting to note how Tkachuk is adapting to the league in comparison. I say it because not many people here were interested in having him at this past year's draft, calling him the "miss" pick if chosen early. He was on my top 2 wish list however, knowing we did not have a chance at drafting Dahlin or Svechnikov. In the end, the positional factor considered, Kotkaniemi was a great pick and likely the best choice for our squad between Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Zadina, and even Hughes. People are complaining much less about the center position on our squad this year. Kotkaniemi was a pleasant surprise and even sent Plekanec home packing, forcing only his most die hard fans to remember he was even on the team to start the season, while holding on to the fact that we should have kept him; he even has more goals than Mete! In the end, hopefully Kotkaniemi can finish strong because we need him if we are going to make the playoffs.

 

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47 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

With only 13 games remaining, Kotkaniemi stands 6th place in scoring amongst rookies and 3rd from his draft class.

 

Elias Pettersson: 58 GP 58 PTS

Dahlin: 68 GP 37 PTS

Andreas Johnsson: 61 GP 36 PTS

Tkachuk: 58 GP 36 PTS

Colin White: 63 GP 35 PTS

Kotkaniemi: 67 GP 32 PTS

Dominik Kahun: 68 GP 31 PTS

Svechnikov: 68 GP 29 PTS

 

It's interesting to note how Tkachuk is adapting to the league in comparison. I say it because not many people here were interested in having him at this past year's draft, calling him the "miss" pick if chosen early. He was on my top 2 wish list however, knowing we did not have a chance at drafting Dahlin or Svechnikov. In the end, the positional factor considered, Kotkaniemi was a great pick and likely the best choice for our squad between Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Zadina, and even Hughes. People are complaining much less about the center position on our squad this year. Kotkaniemi was a pleasant surprise and even sent Plekanec home packing, forcing only his most die hard fans to remember he was even on the team to start the season, while holding on to the fact that we should have kept him; he even has more goals than Mete! In the end, hopefully Kotkaniemi can finish strong because we need him if we are going to make the playoffs.

 

 

Hughes would have been an inspired pick as well - but KoKo was an excellent choice which should benefit the organization for years to come. To me the main question with him is whether he tops out as a 50-60-point 2nd line C or evolves into a legit #1 pivot. Commandant argued that, since there was no clear-cut BPA, the Habs should make a positional decision; and C and D are always worth more than a comparably-talented W.  He or Hughes would have been the right move.

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14 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Hughes would have been an inspired pick as well - but KoKo was an excellent choice which should benefit the organization for years to come. To me the main question with him is whether he tops out as a 50-60-point 2nd line C or evolves into a legit #1 pivot. Commandant argued that, since there was no clear-cut BPA, the Habs should make a positional decision; and C and D are always worth more than a comparably-talented W.  He or Hughes would have been the right move.

With Kotkaniemi it's tough to predict. I think if he were to become a first line NHL center, it would be in a similar fashion to Patrice Bergeron who has only eclipsed 70 points twice in his career and is more of a mid range 60s point player. Patrice Bergeron had 39 points in the NHL as an 18 year old in 71 games. Given an 82 game season, Kotkaniemi would be on pace for 39 points as an 18 year old. On the other hand, there are players like Ryan Nugent Hopkins and Nico Hischier who had much better 18 year old campaigns than Kotkaniemi could ever hope for and especially in RNH's case, can't steadily eclipse 60 points. Sam Gagner also had a 49 point 18 year old season and has found himself in the minors. Kotkaniemi's stats are quite similar to Mark Messier and he found himself have multiple 100 point seasons. All this is to say, that it's way too early to predict. The most likely scenario is that he becomes a 60 point player who may eclipse 70. Similar to Patrice Bergeron. That's his top end, which would be fine with me. 

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#1 pick , rookie season 48gms 31pts = 53pts/82gm pace and 6 years later Yakupov is in KHL.

#3 pick , rookie season 48gms 27pts = 46pts/82gm pace and 6 yrs later Galchneyuk on pace for 50pt season, so basically same production as rookie year.

 

So, still pretty darn hard to predict how teenagers will develop.

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Yeah, I really doubt that you can infer a whole heck of a lot using the technique xXx proposes: 'he got as many points as so-and-so in his rookie year, sothat must mean he'll become that guy.' The Bergeron comparator is especially weak, inasmuch as Bergeron is, unfortunately, perhaps the best in the game when it comes to smarts and two-way play. If you were to pick any other 60-point C the comparison would be less exciting. E.g., we could say he'll be as good as Plekanec in his prime. Suddenly that's not so thrilling, is it?

 

Not that a 60-point C is anything to sneeze at. I like the pick, I like the kid. Whether he is a bona-fide #1C or better cast as part of a 1a/1a arrangement with Domi (or a 1a/1a/1a with Suzuki, conceivably), we're a long way from being able to say.

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Yes, I agree. The jist of my post was that it could go anywhere from here since there are comparables that have turned out a myriad of different ways.  The Bergeron comparison, however,  was used because his name actually appears closely to Kotkaniemi's on the all time 18 year old NHL scoring leaders:

 

https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/player-age/18-year-old-nhl-players.html

 

Kotkaniemi's at 50 while Bettering is only slightly above. Speaking of which,  it looks like Svechnikov has now supplanted Kotkaniemi in the scoring race, prior to tonight's game. Same points but more goals.

 

The comparison was also made because I see Kotkaniemi as having good hockey awareness and defensive responsibility for an 18 year old, something that could potentially increase his perceived value amongst the league,  even if he doesn't eclipse the 80 point barrier. Plekanec could turn out to be a good comparison,  one that we would not get too excited about,  but Plekanec only entered the league in his early 20s, much later than Kotkaniemi.

 

I've seen predictions in the past, comparing Kotkaniemi's future potential to that of Barkov's. That's an even higher point potential and wound be great with me. I just see more of a Bergeron output in the future, though his shot may be even better while Bergeron may be better in other areas. 

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1 hour ago, titanfan said:

I notice that nobody mentioned Alexandre Daigle's 51 points as an 18-year-old rookie.....

 

Yeah, let's not go there....

Thought of him and others, but just wanted to make point that rookie #s may not be a big deal, especially when is the youngest player in the NHL.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Tonight will mark the last matchup between 2nd overall pick Svechnikov and 3rd overall pick Kotkaniemi. Looking at the configurations of each team's respective lineup it seems as though Svechnikov currently finds himself on the top two lines as a winger, whereas Kotkaniemi is chiseled in the 3rd line center role on our squad. Though admittedly he could be expected to fill in on the top 6 should something like an injury arise.

 

Since the creation of this thread, it could be argued that Kotkaniemi has quieted down relatively, as he has registered 7 points since February 5th whereas Scechnikov has registered 13 points. Brady Tkachuk has done even better but that's another topic altogether. 

 

Kotkaniemi has still failed to register a goal on the road so with our game being on the road today, it may be correct to not expect anything in that department but with a playoff atmosphere in the air it will be interesting to note if either team's draft pick can come up big for their team.

 

Season stats:

 

Svechnikov: 74 GP 19-16-35 PTS

Kotkaniemi: 73 GP 11-22-33 PTS

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18 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Season stats:

 

Svechnikov: 74 GP 19-16-35 PTS

Kotkaniemi: 73 GP 11-22-33 PTS

Svech 14:35, 172 shots, 2:02 pp/gm

KK       13:55, 124 shots, 2:02pp/gm

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Healthy scratch again! Peca in, KK out

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/jesperi-kotkaniemi-will-healthy-scratch-critical-game-jets/

 

Carolina Svechnikov is playing, In midst of the pressure of playoff 

 

The " if scared of being hit by a car " don't leave the house mentality, leads to this team to miss playoffs,

 

Keep playing the grinders!

 

For team sake , hope Julien looks like a genius here and they win tonight!!!! And this doesn't have KK lose his confidence.

 

To many examples in past that Habs have hampered the development of young players being doing very same things.

 

 

Learn from your mistakes, gain valuable experience by being in the thick of the situation!

 

Period!

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He hasn't been playing well lately. 

 

He isn't the same situation as Svechnikov who was in the CHL last year.  He has now played more games this season than in any previous year of his career.  By a lot. 

 

The kid is the youngest player in the NHL and is hitting the rookie wall.  It happens to a ton of players.  Sitting an exhausted player is not going to hamper his development, lets stop the over-reaction and silliness

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It's simply stating in today's world we tend to " pamper ", it's not an overreaction, but simply stating all players and people deal with adversity, and stress, and exhaustion, champions and leaders dig deep , and go beyond... How can a player or person learn when they are taken away from such situations, regardless if it's being tired..

 

Just being on bench, and feel the intensity and isolate the athlete to be in position to succeed is experience mentally and " feel " that is worthy if the athlete has the inner fabric and is wired to succeed, better than watching from " the press box " and be simply a spectator instead of a participating spectator and isolated role, if he is fatigued ( mentally or physically) .. We are assuming, 

 

How else do you learn or so to speak " muscle memory" I was on a national team, sport unnamed, but we learned from " muscle fatigue " that over time became muscle memory, we would never have reached that high level if we weren't given to experience it first hand , and by the way I was 17! And grateful I had a coach that did not  have me as a " healthy scratch "

 

 

Best!

 

Champions learn, but without that experience one never attains the height of being a champion!

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I think Julien is making the right decision sitting KK out.  The kid is clearly exhausted, as well he should be playing in the NHL as an undersized 18 year-old who is not used to playing long seasons (Euro leagues play less games than North American leagues generally; last season he played 57 games).  Having him out there with a weary body could leave him more vulnerable to a big hit and an injury, and we do NOT want to roll the dice on that.

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I'm on Kotkaniemi's side all the way but he's also been less productive on the road this season.  Without a goal on the road this season,  we can't be expecting to miss much in that regard as a result of him sitting out today.  Hopefully Peca can have an impact tonight, however,  as I'm not expecting much from him in that department tonight either.  

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4 hours ago, sbhatt said:

I think Julien is making the right decision sitting KK out.  The kid is clearly exhausted, as well he should be playing in the NHL as an undersized 18 year-old who is not used to playing long seasons (Euro leagues play less games than North American leagues generally; last season he played 57 games).  Having him out there with a weary body could leave him more vulnerable to a big hit and an injury, and we do NOT want to roll the dice on that.

 

Exactly

 

Remember too he's been non-stop since early August when he played exhibition games for the Finnish Junior team, then he played for his Finnish team, then he played the rookie tourney, NHL preseason and now over 70 NHL games.  Its way more than he's used to

 

And he hasn't played well in his last 10 games 

 

Kid has slowed down and there is nothing wrong with that,

 

As far as learning to be a Champion, the kid is on his way.  Taking the time to recuperate is not going to hurt his development.  Most assumed he wouldn't even be in the NHL this year.  He's ahead of schedule and has shown improvement at every step.  This season exceeded all expectations, I don't think you can argue that 

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Right now you put the best team on the ice

 

Weal should stay centring the third line as he's just playing better than KK right now. 

 

Thompson is being trusted by Julien, especially in the faceoff circle. 

 

A couple of healthy scratches or playing wing on the fourth line is not going to harm KK's development.  

 

This is overreaction to the Galchenyuk situation.  

If he's spending an entire season on the wing, or is playing on the 4th line in his 4th and 5th year in the NHL, then we can talk about it. 

 

But its do or die right now, so yes, for 3-4 games the development of an 18 year old can take a backseat to ensuring you have the best lineup to win games. 

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