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xXx..CK..xXx

4 Teams - 1 Playoff Race

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With 16 games left in the season a 4 team playoff race for 3 spots has emerged in the east. 

 

I was curious for the most part who posters felt would be the 1 team out of the 4 to miss the playoffs?

 

These teams incude, Montreal, Carolina,  Pittsburgh and Columbus. 

 

For some time,  the Habs have held on to the first wildcard however the current standings amongst the teams at the time this thread was created is the following:

 

1 Carolina 65 GP 78 PTS 35 ROW

2 Pittsburgh 65 GP 77 PTS 33 ROW

3 Montreal 66 GP 77 PTS 33 ROW

4 Columbus 64 GP 75 PTS 36 ROW

 

Shortly after the trade deadline,  my assumption was that Carolina would be the lone team out and I will stick with that prediction.

 

I think Pittsburgh will end 3rd in their division, Montreal will grab the first wildcard and Columbus will squeak in for an interesting round 1 match-up with Tampa Bay. My only worry is a seemingly difficult last few (4 or so if I remember) games of the year for our Habs when points will appear to be so crucial. 

 

My prediction 

 

1 Pittsburgh - 3rd in Metro

2 Montreal - 1st wildcard

3 Columbus - 2nd wildcard

4 Carolina - Miss playoffs 

 

Share your thoughts. 

 

 

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I hope your right about your prediction.

 

Keep in mind about Pittsburgh though, their roster is riddled with injuries. Of course if Sidney Crosby decides to take over a game he will, like what we saw yesterday but it will be more difficult for him to do it over the last remaining games. That could play a factor.

 

Carolina is riding a red hot streak that will enivitibly cool off but the question is when? If they don’t they will surely make it in.

 

Columbus is a complete wild card as they seem to be on a win lose pattern for a while similar to the Habs.

 

Pittsburgh - last wildcard

Carolina - 3rd(or miss depending on there streak)

Columbus - miss

Habs - first wildcard 

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I'm going to predict the curse of Matt Duchene continues and the Blue Jackets miss the playoffs

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Blake Wheeler with 4 goals as the Jets beat the Blue Jackets 5-2

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Columbus out. Only by wins otl total. Which let's habs squeak in to face Tbay. Yuck. Not what I was thinking 2 weeks ago when I had us facing Toronto or Boston. 

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Remaining strengths of schedule for each team: https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-fantasy-hockey-strength-of-schedule-remaining-games-2018-19/c-305362652?tid=277729150

 

Pittsburgh Penguins: 17 games left; 10 home, 7 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.552

Montreal Canadiens: 16 games left; 7 home, 9 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.571
Columbus Blue Jackets: 17 games left; 6 home, 11 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.571
Philadelphia Flyers: 16 games left; 8 home, 8 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.580
Carolina Hurricanes: 17 games left; 9 home, 8 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.591

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24 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

Remaining strengths of schedule for each team: https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-fantasy-hockey-strength-of-schedule-remaining-games-2018-19/c-305362652?tid=277729150

 

Pittsburgh Penguins: 17 games left; 10 home, 7 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.552

Montreal Canadiens: 16 games left; 7 home, 9 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.571
Columbus Blue Jackets: 17 games left; 6 home, 11 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.571
Philadelphia Flyers: 16 games left; 8 home, 8 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.580
Carolina Hurricanes: 17 games left; 9 home, 8 road; Opp. Pts. %: 0.591

 

Piggybacking off this, Damian Echevarrieta is a great follow on Twitter this time of year for his playoff race graphics:

 

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Nice posts guys.

 

So far 3 people in this thread have predicted that they believe Columbus will be the lone team to miss the playoffs and I myself am the lone person to predict Carolina. Others have remained mostly silent and hopefully that has nothing to do with personal sentiments that Montreal may be the team to miss!

 

With that being said, while perhaps off by a percentage or two depending where one looks, here is the likelihood that each team will make the playoffs at this point in the game.

 

1 Carolina 86.1%

2 Pittsburgh 85.9%

3 Montreal 66.5%

4 Columbus 55.3%

 

Source: Hockey Reference 

 

Another page has the following as the odds:

 

1 Pittsburgh 89.7%

2 Carolina 88.3%

3 Montreal 65.0%

4 Columbus 53.8%

 

Source: Sports Club Stats

 

In both cases, Columbus is the team expected to miss should the playoffs have started today or tomorrow. Hopefully they continue to struggle down the stretch.  What's interesting is that every team has a better chance of making the playoffs than missing them. As Brian noted, Philadelphia is also in the mix but their chances stand closer to the 6-8% range depending where one looks.

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I think Carolina misses. 

 

Columbus i do think will get it together and make the playoffs but won’t win a round as they get to face the Lightning. 

 

Pittsburgh will get hot and stay hot and I’ll say wins their first round matchup with the Isles. 

 

Montreal has had its losing spell - I think they get their 4 of 6 points on the California swing and continues at that rate to the 7th seed. 

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Habs will be golfing earliest.:spamafote:

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1 hour ago, DON said:

Habs will be golfing earliest.:spamafote:

 

giphy.gif

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Sorry, know it wouldn't be popular...but just trying to be honest.

I hope they do make it and get some experience for the kids and $$ for Molson.

But, got feeling they will end up in no-mans land just missing out.

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They do have a tendency over the years to vanish when the going gets tough. 

 

Even with all that character and attitude. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Chris said:

They do have a tendency over the years to vanish when the going gets tough. 

 

Even with all that character and attitude.

 

Last year's team really didn't have much character. Not the kind you'd want to have, at least.

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Bit of a shit sandwich today if Montreal loses. Pens jackets win and canes get the ot point.

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7 hours ago, BCHabnut said:

Bit of a shit sandwich today if Montreal loses. Pens jackets win and canes get the ot point.

 

With the win last night, they gain a point on the Canes and keep pace with the others.

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18 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

 

With the win last night, they gain a point on the Canes and keep pace with the others.

 

Also gained ground on the ROW tiebreaker on Columbus. 

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Columbus misses. Two games coming up against Pitt. Hopefully no three point games there!

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Islanders pdo (sh%+sv%) is 1026 with the highest save percentage in the league. Could they be the team to drop out? Greiss and lehner have done well sharing the duties but with lehner out its all up to greiss now.

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I think Pittsburgh finishes 3rd in the Metro, Montreal gets the first wildcard and Carolina the 2nd.

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13 hours ago, TheDriveFor25 said:

Columbus misses. Two games coming up against Pitt. Hopefully no three point games there!

 

I would like to see Columbus sweep this series (purely for our chances). But I admit it's not very likely!

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How many points will it take to get in? As of now, the Habs hold the second wildcard spot and are on pace for 96-97 points. This seems like a reasonable target for a team aspiring to make the playoffs. With 79 points and 15 games remaining, the Habs would have to achieve 18 points out of a possible remaining 30 points, or a .600 points percentage from here on out. 

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On 3/5/2019 at 8:47 AM, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Nice posts guys.

 

So far 3 people in this thread have predicted that they believe Columbus will be the lone team to miss the playoffs and I myself am the lone person to predict Carolina. Others have remained mostly silent and hopefully that has nothing to do with personal sentiments that Montreal may be the team to miss!

 

With that being said, while perhaps off by a percentage or two depending where one looks, here is the likelihood that each team will make the playoffs at this point in the game.

 

1 Carolina 86.1%

2 Pittsburgh 85.9%

3 Montreal 66.5%

4 Columbus 55.3%

 

Source: Hockey Reference 

 

Another page has the following as the odds:

 

1 Pittsburgh 89.7%

2 Carolina 88.3%

3 Montreal 65.0%

4 Columbus 53.8%

 

Source: Sports Club Stats

 

In both cases, Columbus is the team expected to miss should the playoffs have started today or tomorrow. Hopefully they continue to struggle down the stretch.  What's interesting is that every team has a better chance of making the playoffs than missing them. As Brian noted, Philadelphia is also in the mix but their chances stand closer to the 6-8% range depending where one looks.

The Habs will get in.  I have no idea who misses though.  It's between Columbus and Carolina for me.  Pittsburgh has too much talent and experience to miss.

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Columbus down 2-0 to Pittsburgh in the third. That'll skew the odds some more.

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Win tonight, have Columbus lose to Pitt again tomorrow and we are four points up.

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