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4 Teams - 1 Playoff Race


xXx..CK..xXx

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Happy either way. Better year than expected and finish with all prospects intact. We will be even better next year and still have loads of cap space. Love to make it in but wont be sad if we bubble. 

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19 minutes ago, Scott462 said:

Don saw the writing on the wall before all of us.

 

18.8% of making the playoffs now, if they do make it they will probably limp into them beaten up and dead tired and have the powerhouse that is Tampa this year waiting for them.

 

I have a new question for everyone.

 

Do people still want Montreal to make the playoffs and play Tampa or forget about it and try to potentially win the lottery or worse case try for a better draft pick?

 

I choose draft pick at this point but I wouldn’t be upset at making the playoffs because I’d love to watch more hockey that I have a personal stake in.

I've never understood the mentality of try to get as close to a playoff position or sneak in.  Sitting 3 points out, we should aim to lose every game going forward and get a better pick. 

 

If we sneak in in 8th, the series will last 5 games if we are lucky, but more than likely it'll be 4 and done, with no chance at all at the lottery.  As a matter of fact, when MB decided to do virtually nothing at the deadline, we should of began the tanking process right then.  He showed his belief in the team getting anywhere in the playoff by his deadline actions.  I actually agree with him not doing anything either.

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There are not many (if any) teams who are likely to pass us from behind.  So we might as well try to make it.

 

The experience of high pressure games on the young lineup os worth more than the difference between the 13th ans 15th draft spots.

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I never understood the mentality of trying to tank, let alone attempting to do so while still in a playoff hunt.  

 

A series against Tampa would likely turn out as everyone expects, however it truly would be a series where the team would have nothing to lose. Start the first two games on the road and all it takes is one win in Tampa to have people start talking. 

 

Regardless,  I don't think the team is pep talking themselves about squeaking into the playoffs.  They should want to win every game from here on out and finish in the first wildcard spot. 

 

Thinking about the future makes sense. What doesn't make sense as a fan is to expect to wait until the perfect season for everything to work out beautifully. Chances are Tampa Bay won't win the cup this year and that's the type of team and statistical output many Habs fans are expecting. If that's how we should choose to enjoy our team,  we should expect to be that type of contender at best 1 out of 5 years,  and our GM shouldn't do anything outside of those seasons,  when nothing will be guaranteed in the end anyway. 

 

I do agree that this year's trade deadline may end up turning out to be a determining factor in how the season plays out.  Pittsburgh touched things up, Columbus made the biggest splash,  and Carolina added a PPG player ever since his arrival in Nino Neiderreitter. The Habs added some pieces but it's arguable that statistically we may have even worsened our 4th line.  Alternatively,  adding something at the deadline during a season where players have overachieved, can demonstrate that they can be rewarded for their effort.  There's no arguing that some positive additions could boost the mental moral of the team. Now that the going is getting tough, there's nothing new to lean on. 

 

Columbus has a hard schedule coming up, starting with a little trip out West in Canada and Carolina has many games against playoff teams in their near future. The Habs need to keep fighting for wins and go from there.  This isn't even getting into the fact that the draft lottery is just that,  a lottery.  Should the Habs miss the playoffs without having attempted to tank,  they still have a slight chance to move up for the draft. 

 

I drink but 5 times a year,  but you guys started me early for St. Paddys day today with these posts. 

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I agree. I don't think you build a winning culture and organization by doing your best to lose, year in and year out, until that magical moment when you are favoured to win it all. Tanking doesn't work half the time anyway (c.f. Edmonton and Florida). Meanwhile your veterans want out and UFAs won't touch you with a 10-foot pole. 

 

Incidentally, two of the better teams in the East - TB and Boston - got where they are *without tanking.* They do it by astoundingly good drafting and development. (Those organizations are on another level from MB's Habs and I see no sign of that changing any time soon, unfortunately). I'm always sourly amused when people forget such examples. Of course, following them requires having the right people in place managerially.

 

Don't tank. Strive for league-best excellence in all areas of your operation and instill a total dedication to winning. You may not win the Cup, but success will be your reward.

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Just to be clear I’m not advocating tanking when I asked which potential outcome would people prefer. Just the possibility of missing the playoffs and winning the lottery (albeit a very small chance) or making the playoffs.

 

From what I have seen so far this team leans very heavily on Weber and he has obviously slowed down and looks fatigued, as do some other players. This does not bode too well should the Habs make the playoffs, so the way I’m looking at it is even if there is some small chance they could win the lottery that might be better than getting blasted by Tampa.

 

You guys make good arguments about making the playoffs and nothing would make me happier seeing Montreal upset the mighty Lightning. 

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I look at it this way; if Montreal misses the playoffs they have around a 3% chance of moving up in the draft. And if they do make the playoffs, they have a way better chance than that to go on a run. 

 

I know which way a winner would pick and which way a loser would pick

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I just hate finishing 9th in the conference and getting the absolute worst pick possible without seeing a playoff game. I have a very hard time seeing the silver lining to the season in that scenario. 

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I am guessing Dons writing on the wall is not so clear this morning. Next 4 games should all be wins. See how CBJ fairs. If they drop to Van Isles Habs and Preds we could be looking not to bad headed into the close out of the season. 

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2 hours ago, johnnyhasbeen said:

I am guessing Dons writing on the wall is not so clear this morning. Next 4 games should all be wins. See how CBJ fairs. If they drop to Van Isles Habs and Preds we could be looking not to bad headed into the close out of the season. 

:mellow:

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Playoff Race

NYI: 74 GP 42-25-7 = 91 PTS 38 ROW

 

Pittsburgh: 75 GP 40-24-11 = 91 PTS 38 ROW

Carolina: 73 GP 40-26-7 = 87 PTS 38 ROW

Montreal: 74 GP 39-28-7 = 85 PTS 37 ROW

Columbus: 74 GP 40-30-4 = 84 PTS 39 ROW

 

Philadelphia: 74 GP 36-30-8 = 80 PTS 34 ROW

 

Playoff Chances 03/22/19 @ 10:00 AM EST

Pittsburgh: 99.5%

Carolina: 93.9%

Montreal: 50.9%

Columbus: 54.4%

 

Columbus still seems to have the upper hand slightly in terms of chances they make the playoffs. Of course, every model is slightly different. I'm sure our lesser chance despite having more points may have something to do with difficulty of remaining opponents. 

 

Here's another model that has Montreal slightly closer to Columbus.

 

Pittsburgh: 99.6%

Carolina: 92.2%

Montreal: 52.7%

Columbus: 53.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, TheDriveFor25 said:

Changing my pick..

 

I’m going to be bold and say the Isles miss the playoffs. They’ll win one more game and finish with 93 points.

That would have to be a heck of a tank. I was thinking the same as you a few weeks ago, but I would say they make it at this point. One of Habs Columbus or Canes will miss. My money is on Canes. They have been playing well and are due for some crap play.

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One positive thing is that should the Habs make the playoffs that will mean that they will be riding a hot streak.

 

Another thing is president trophy winning teams very rarely win the cup so who the hell knows lol.

 

Price has been playing exceptionally lately and over the past two games Weber has goals in both and is starting to look better. Good things.

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4 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Playoff Race

NYI: 74 GP 42-25-7 = 91 PTS 38 ROW

 

Pittsburgh: 75 GP 40-24-11 = 91 PTS 38 ROW

Carolina: 73 GP 40-26-7 = 87 PTS 38 ROW

Montreal: 74 GP 39-28-7 = 85 PTS 37 ROW

Columbus: 74 GP 40-30-4 = 84 PTS 39 ROW

 

Philadelphia: 74 GP 36-30-8 = 80 PTS 34 ROW

 

Playoff Chances 03/22/19 @ 10:00 AM EST

Pittsburgh: 99.5%

Carolina: 93.9%

Montreal: 50.9%

Columbus: 54.4%

 

Columbus still seems to have the upper hand slightly in terms of chances they make the playoffs. Of course, every model is slightly different. I'm sure our lesser chance despite having more points may have something to do with difficulty of remaining opponents. 

 

Here's another model that has Montreal slightly closer to Columbus.

 

Pittsburgh: 99.6%

Carolina: 92.2%

Montreal: 52.7%

Columbus: 53.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Told my boss (a sens season ticket holder, a brave man) yesterday before the game that come Monday morning the CH would be in and Carolina would be out.

I hope I have the first part right

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52 minutes ago, Scott462 said:

Another thing is president trophy winning teams very rarely win the cup so who the hell knows lol.

I think it is 8 of last 28 top teams won the cup, is what i remember hearing recently. But, not sure how many were upset in 1st round by wildcard calibre team.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Personally, I want Columbus to lose, just to see them punished for flatulently trading away picks in a pathetic attempt to achieve a first-round playoff exit.

 

Thing is that when they made those trades they actually had a shot at 1st in the division, it was pretty tight.

 

It just very quickly became, uh, loose. 

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Habs win eliminated both Buffalo and the Rangers tonight. 

 

No help from Minnesota or Philly tonight as both Carolina and NYI won. Dallas still might pull through against Pittsburgh. 

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11 minutes ago, Trizzak said:

No help from Minnesota or Philly tonight as both Carolina and NYI won.

 

 

I was conflicted with the Islanders game.  On the one hand, I wanted them to lose as if they went on a big slide, it's one more team the Habs could leapfrog.  On the other hand, the win put them back within a point of the division lead which could be meaningful if the Habs happen to get back to the WC1 spot.

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Something that's been bothering me is that both our upcoming games versus Columbus and Carolina are on the road.  I'd be happy with a split but really, we should win both. 

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