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Meller93

Who do the Habs take in the 2019 draft?

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1 hour ago, EMELINATOR said:

I don’t think the #15 overall pick will get you an impact piece. I also don’t believe anyone you draft there would have as much upside as Puljujarvi tbh. I’ve seen him dominate hockey games, I don’t think he’s just lost it.

But I definitely understand your hesitation tho. His value is at an all-time low.

It's a very strange blanket statement to make that a 15th OA draft pick doesn't have a high chance to land an impact piece.. Here's a list of players taken at from 14-18 since 2015.

 

Jake DeBrusk

Kyle Connor

Matt Barzal

Thomas Chabot

Charlie MacAvoy

Jacob Chychrun

Eric Brannstrom

 

Since 2015! That's not even giving enough time for them all to show what they're capable of. Fifteen is a VERY strong pick. If I even have a 20% chance of landing a player of the above calibre, there's no way I trade it for Puljujarvi. And by all accounts, this year has a ton of excellent options at 15. 

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22 minutes ago, Meller93 said:

It's a very strange blanket statement to make that a 15th OA draft pick doesn't have a high chance to land an impact piece.. Here's a list of players taken at from 14-18 since 2015.

 

Jake DeBrusk

Kyle Connor

Matt Barzal

Thomas Chabot

Charlie MacAvoy

Jacob Chychrun

Eric Brannstrom

 

Since 2015! That's not even giving enough time for them all to show what they're capable of. Fifteen is a VERY strong pick. If I even have a 20% chance of landing a player of the above calibre, there's no way I trade it for Puljujarvi. And by all accounts, this year has a ton of excellent options at 15. 

I meant via trade but you are right, teams have hit quite a few times in that draft spot. I guess it just depends on how you value Puljujarvi and I value him more than most. 

 

Ideally I’d love to keep our pick and acquire him in another deal. But I think he has a lot of talent and would worth pursuing.

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I agree that Puljujarvi is worth pursuing and has talent but I think the Habs will get an excellent prospect at 15 and it would have to be a bit more of a sure thing to give it up.  Puljujarvi is a project right now,  a bit messed up from a confidence point if view but I definitely would like to see the Habs get him if the price is right. 

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4 hours ago, dlbalr said:

The reported asking price is a third-liner for him.  It probably wouldn't take more than a second-round pick to beat that price tag.

 

Shaw? Hudon plus a third-rounder? Drouin is maybe too much?

 

Like a first-round draft pick, Puljujarvi has potential but there is also the risk that he doesn't pan out at all.

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8 hours ago, REV-G said:

He was asked about the need for left handed defencemen and he said that he had been talking to Trevor Timmons the night before who stated that they are expecting Romanov to be here for the 2020-2021 season and for him to be ready to step in right away. 

 

I think there is a good chance of that. He'll have had two years of playing with adults in the KHL, which should put him in a position to step into the lineup next year.

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Why would anyone want Puljujarvi? The habs have plenty of forwards including Suzuki and Poehling. 

 

Why would you offer Shaw for him? Shaw is one of the better habs forwards. 

 

The Habs need to focus on what they need, upgrade to LD and a legit back up goalie. 

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8 hours ago, tomh009 said:

 Puljujarvi has potential

No thanks.

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1 hour ago, DON said:

No thanks.

Fe Real? that is a hard No thanks, for you Don?

I think he would be a "good risk". MB/CJ don't seem to want Hudon, I would try a swap. KK, Armia, JP; kinda looks good writen down, no?

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55 minutes ago, ehjay said:

Fe Real? that is a hard No thanks, for you Don?

I think he would be a "good risk". MB/CJ don't seem to want Hudon, I would try a swap. KK, Armia, JP; kinda looks good writen down, no?

I agree that a hudon swap makes a ton of sense.

 

further, I’d like to acquire Ghostibehere, and one of our wingers (Shaw) is probably the best way to do that. Opening a spot for JP

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2 hours ago, ehjay said:

Fe Real? that is a hard No thanks, for you Don?

I think he would be a "good risk". MB/CJ don't seem to want Hudon, I would try a swap. KK, Armia, JP; kinda looks good writen down, no?

Already had NHL trial of 137games with only 37points..he is making Yakapov look good.

Why would you want him? Don't you think we have enough bottom six forwards and I would rather see Evans-Poehling squeeze into roster, not another Oiler busted top pick.

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FWIW - 10 "quasi-realistic" options at 15 i favour:

  1. Krebs (likely gone)
  2. Newhook
  3. Broberg (likely gone)
  4. Caulfield (likely gone)
  5. Seider
  6. York
  7. Boldy
  8. Harley
  9. Lavoie
  10. Soderstrom

 

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Timmins - "Picking 15th overall, we don't expect this player to play this year or maybe not even the year after, so we're not addressing an immediate need. If we have an immediate need, then Marc will go outside the organization looking to make a trade or sign a free agent."

 

This sounds like the hole at Left D won't be a factor in the pick. To me it sounds like a BPA philosophy. Now maybe BPA turns out to be Broberg, Seider, etc. But (and I'm glad of this) Timmins won't pass up a Krebs or perhaps a Newhook if he's available. This is want I want to hear.

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13 minutes ago, Meller93 said:

Timmins - "Picking 15th overall, we don't expect this player to play this year or maybe not even the year after, so we're not addressing an immediate need. If we have an immediate need, then Marc will go outside the organization looking to make a trade or sign a free agent."

 

This sounds like the hole at Left D won't be a factor in the pick. To me it sounds like a BPA philosophy. Now maybe BPA turns out to be Broberg, Seider, etc. But (and I'm glad of this) Timmins won't pass up a Krebs or perhaps a Newhook if he's available. This is want I want to hear.

It only makes sense.  Commandant said it best last year.  Always take bpa.  Always.  If your group can't decide on a bpa. Or there isn't enough difference between the available players, positional need can be added as a factor which would then make him bpa. 

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Habs should take the best player avail at 15.  They got into this mess by (1) trading pics; (2) making bad pics (Fisher, LeBlanc, McCarron, etc.) and overpaying for FAs (Alzner).  Best to pursue a hockey deal by moving other pieces for needs.  I love Shaw, but how long can he last?  I love Armia when he shows up, but how many games was that?  We have some valuable pieces, we have cap space and some extra late round picks as sweetener...we can walk and chew gum at the same time...

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2 hours ago, Commandant said:

Wrong thread.

?

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49 minutes ago, Habiman said:

Habs should take the best player avail at 15.  They got into this mess by (1) trading pics; (2) making bad pics (Fisher, LeBlanc, McCarron, etc.) and overpaying for FAs (Alzner).  Best to pursue a hockey deal by moving other pieces for needs.  I love Shaw, but how long can he last?  I love Armia when he shows up, but how many games was that?  We have some valuable pieces, we have cap space and some extra late round picks as sweetener...we can walk and chew gum at the same time...

Fischer? That was a long time ago.

Leblanc was taken exactly where rated by many.

Beaulieu had poor hockey IQ, but also not a reach where taken.

Tinordi-McCarron were both bad picks.

Scherbak again, taken just about where ranked.

 

I agree Shaw likely has higher value after 20g season and Byron also another 20g scorer that could be used in trade, even though both i like to keep. But, gonna have to part with someone of value to get good LH d-man.

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53 minutes ago, DON said:

?

 

I posted about goalies, but it was in this thread... so i deleted and moved it to the goalie thread. 

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4 hours ago, Meller93 said:

This sounds like the hole at Left D won't be a factor in the pick. To me it sounds like a BPA philosophy. Now maybe BPA turns out to be Broberg, Seider, etc. But (and I'm glad of this) Timmins won't pass up a Krebs or perhaps a Newhook if he's available. This is want I want to hear.

I agree with this...except I believe its Lavoie the Canadiens will be targeting.   At #15 hes in the conversation for BPA.

 

 

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2 hours ago, kaos said:

I agree with this...except I believe its Lavoie the Canadiens will be targeting.   At #15 hes in the conversation for BPA.

 

If you are drafting 15th, you can't just target a single player. They'll have their ranked short list, and they'll cross players off that as they get drafted by other teams. The top player not crossed out should be the BPA ...

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2 hours ago, kaos said:

 At #15 hes in the conversation for BPA.

In the conversation, but not ranked by many there or lower and looks to be several who are, will still be available at 15.

But, a big scoring french kid must be very appealing to Molson and the locals.

Seems like if Habs target him, they might even be able to trade down to get him closer to 20 than 15 and perhaps add another 2nd round pick.

(or maybe 20th (Lavoie or Suzuki) + Ehlers for 15th & 46th)

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1 hour ago, DON said:

In the conversation, but not ranked by many there or lower and looks to be several who are, will still be available at 15.

But, a big scoring french kid must be very appealing to Molson and the locals.

Seems like if Habs target him, they might even be able to trade down to get him closer to 20 than 15 and perhaps add another 2nd round pick.

(or maybe 20th (Lavoie or Suzuki) + Ehlers for 15th & 46th)

Ehlers will be more difficult to get than that

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I agree with BPA. The complication that gets overlooked is that it is often not at all self-evident who the best player is. At such toss-up moments other considerations should come into play, as they arguably did with the Kotkaniemi pick. And sometimes we retrospectively condemn teams for 'not picking the bpa' when in fact that's what they thought they were doing.

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Just looking at the values, I feel most would consider Ehlers more valuable than pick 15, he’s the most valuable asset in this proposal. So if we have:

 

Ehlers > 15

20 > 46

 

we’d need to add more to both offers IMO

 

adding Shaw to the deal you proposed might be more realistic. Perhaps we get a third round pick back.

 

Ehlers + 20th + a third for

Shaw + 15th + 46

 

 

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