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Habs sign Sebastian Aho to offer sheet

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26 minutes ago, Chris said:

I wouldnt have done an offer sheet, kind of underhanded in my book. 

 

I understand Aho is a a great young player, but how does he make the habs a contender? 

 

Still need defense, and now a quality RW, 

 

Domi, KK, Poehling, Danault Suzuki are good young centers. 

 

Im obviously in the minority on this move. 

 

I'm on the fence with this move.  Not a big fan of offer sheets as I believe that it deteriorates the relationship among GMs, but I understand it's part of the business.

 

What I like:

Aho is a really good player who is truly a 1st line player.  He would become the Habs' best forward.

 

What I don't like:

1.  The compensation.  If the 1st rounder was lottery protected, I would have less of a problem with it.  Imagine missing the playoffs next year, winning the draft lottery, and then watching Carolina draft Lafreniere on home turf.  OUCH!

2.  The term.  I don't expect the Habs to be Cup contenders (well real Cup contenders) for at least a couple of years.  So you have a 3 year window with Aho before he becomes a UFA and possibly leaves.  I would rather have seen either a 4 year or 7 year deal.

3.  Will Bergevin be blackballed for offer sheeting?  I'm not sure it will happen, but it could affect his ability to make deals with other teams in the future.  Habs are ways away from being contenders and will need other teams to deal with (because they keep striking out with top UFAs) to make the team better.

 

Hopefully everything works out.  Aho signs with the Habs and the Habs make the playoffs.  Giving up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for Aho would be a steal.  Hopefully the Habs are also able to win a Cup before his contract expires in 5 years.

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He’s a fantastic top ten player at his position and at only 21. It needed to be 9.5/10 million. Yes. I’d be laughing at MB too, if I was Carolina. 

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44 minutes ago, Meller93 said:

Lets just ignore all the progress the Habs have made over the past year then eh?

No

Come up with a more realistic plan of improving the team.  Don't risk the improvements you have made on a hail Mary play, that leaves your team worse off then it was last year.

This team right now is not better minus Shaw and plus $13 million 

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That's for sure, 

 

They needed a LD and a back up goalie. 

 

 

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I don’t think this was a for show offer sheet. It was a predatory offer to a small market team that will be grimacing about having to pay close to there whole yearly profit in one year to a player that decided to sign it with another organization. If they match it good for them but this isn’t something they are happy to do.

 

Not to mention it brings him right to RFA which is a real nut breaker.

 

This also keeps things in perspective when our own RFA need deals, MB is not making the same mistake Dubas has made signing his star players.

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1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Philly tried the same squeeze with Nashville - did it work?  The canes have a new owner, there is NO WAY IN HELL is he going to lose his best player for the return he gets for not matching - especially when the consensus is that the Annual average is market rate given the other signings this year.  Nashville sucked up and swallowed the poison pill- so will the canes.  Hell, even Waddell said he thought the offer would be higher.  I loved the move, but in typical Bergevin fashion he fxcked up and as usual was hostile when reporters questioned him on why not making a higher offer. 

 

Funny how EVERY friggin analyst said the offer was too low and is entirely based on the hope that the canes won’t want to pay the $22m in the first year.  So it’s not just me, it’s every friggin analyst? But I get it.  You have a hard on for bergevin who can do no wrong.  Whatever.

 

The canes  won’t like it but they will match for the following reasons,

- the return they get is not worth it for a 21 year old first line centre.

-the actual salary is close to market rate

-no way that Dundon would let his best player go for such a crap return in the first year of ownership. If he doesn’t match he is a bigger moron than Bergevin and I honestly don’t think that’s possible.

 

bergevin said he considered all factors, but if he had any brains, he would have paired the poison pill payments with either a higher than market salary or a shorter term than 5 years.

 

You never addressed what I said about the term. Carolina was try to get an 8 year deal, and by doing so it pushes the AAV up. Montreal offered a 5 year deal, meaning that Aho would be a UFA at the end of the deal, and then be able to cash in again. Might want to wipe the spit up off your shirt. 

 

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I liked the out of box move, as well as moving out Shaw and other slugs.  But what’s the point of making an RFA offer unless it’s structured in a way that it won’t be matched.

 

the only way it won’t be matched is if MB actually does get creative and makes a side deal with Carolina not to match by giving them other players.

 

Like the out of the box but hate how we don't know if it worked yet? Let's start flinging feces everywhere!

 

50 minutes ago, John B said:

I'm on the fence with this move.  Not a big fan of offer sheets as I believe that it deteriorates the relationship among GMs, but I understand it's part of the business.

 

What I like:

Aho is a really good player who is truly a 1st line player.  He would become the Habs' best forward.

 

What I don't like:

1.  The compensation.  If the 1st rounder was lottery protected, I would have less of a problem with it.  Imagine missing the playoffs next year, winning the draft lottery, and then watching Carolina draft Lafreniere on home turf.  OUCH!

2.  The term.  I don't expect the Habs to be Cup contenders (well real Cup contenders) for at least a couple of years.  So you have a 3 year window with Aho before he becomes a UFA and possibly leaves.  I would rather have seen either a 4 year or 7 year deal.

3.  Will Bergevin be blackballed for offer sheeting?  I'm not sure it will happen, but it could affect his ability to make deals with other teams in the future.  Habs are ways away from being contenders and will need other teams to deal with (because they keep striking out with top UFAs) to make the team better.

 

Hopefully everything works out.  Aho signs with the Habs and the Habs make the playoffs.  Giving up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for Aho would be a steal.  Hopefully the Habs are also able to win a Cup before his contract expires in 5 years.

 

1. If we get Aho and assuming the season goes well, odds are next to zero that we have to worry about winning/losing the lottery.

 

2. Aho would be an UFA after 5 years, not 3

 

3. Everything I seen today with rival GMs commenting about the offer sheet indicates they understand it is within the rules and fair game 

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52 minutes ago, Chris said:

I wouldnt have done an offer sheet, kind of underhanded in my book. 

 

I understand Aho is a a great young player, but how does he make the habs a contender? 

 

Still need defense, and now a quality RW, 

 

Domi, KK, Poehling, Danault Suzuki are good young centers. 

 

Im obviously in the minority on this move. 

 

As Bergevin said, his priority is the Canadiens, the fans, Geoff Molson, not Carolina. I give credit to the guy for having the balls to do something that if successful, is a wildly positive signing. Offer sheets are within the rules. If GMs are gonna throw a hissy fit, it is what it is. If there's even a 5% chance MTL gets Aho for a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, you do it. I commend MB for trying. In the mean time I don't get the crying about not signing Gardiner. Gardiner is still available AND MTL has the space to sign him and AHO. 

 

Domi could conceivably make an excellent winger moving forward.

 

Tatar - Danault - Gallagher        as the 1st, shutdown minute crunching line.

Domi - Aho - Armia              Scoring line. Armia opens up space for the speedy talented Domi/Aho combo. Still Reasonably responsible.

Drouin - Kotkaniemi - Lehkonen/Suzuki/??? exploitation line.

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38 minutes ago, illWill said:

You never addressed what I said about the term. Carolina was try to get an 8 year deal, and by doing so it pushes the AAV up. Montreal offered a 5 year deal, meaning that Aho would be a UFA at the end of the deal, and then be able to cash in again. Might want to wipe the spit up off your shirt. 

 

 

Like the out of the box but hate how we don't know if it worked yet? Let's start flinging feces everywhere!

 

 

1. If we get Aho and assuming the season goes well, odds are next to zero that we have to worry about winning/losing the lottery.

 

2. Aho would be an UFA after 5 years, not 3

 

3. Everything I seen today with rival GMs commenting about the offer sheet indicates they understand it is within the rules and fair game 

What I was trying to say about the 3 years was that the Habs aren't likely to win a Cup in the first two years of his deal.  Which would leave 3 year window after that before he's a UFA.  I'm hoping the Habs can put it all together and win next year.  I guess we'll see.

 

I agree that it's doubtful Montreal's 1st rounder will be a lottery pick next year and even less likely that it will be 1st overall, but it could happen.  Just hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.

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29 minutes ago, illWill said:

You never addressed what I said about the term. Carolina was try to get an 8 year deal, and by doing so it pushes the AAV up. Montreal offered a 5 year deal, meaning that Aho would be a UFA at the end of the deal, and then be able to cash in again. Might want to wipe the spit up off your shirt. 

 

 

Like the out of the box but hate how we don't know if it worked yet? Let's start flinging feces everywhere!

 

 

1. If we get Aho and assuming the season goes well, odds are next to zero that we have to worry about winning/losing the lottery.

 

2. Aho would be an UFA after 5 years, not 3

 

3. Everything I seen today with rival GMs commenting about the offer sheet indicates they understand it is within the rules and fair game 

Who cares that the canes were offering $8m for 8 years.  I guess you have the comprehension of  a 5 year old and need everything spelt out.  I said that the habs was close to or around current market rates.  Current market rates for RFA’s is not 8 years anymore.  Mathews and Nylander changed that.  The are all looking for 5 to 6 years deals now.

 

if the habs offered him a 2 or 3 yr deal at $10m with a heavy bonus laden contract that may have caused more hesitation on the canes.  Since they may have seen that as an overpay, since he would would be an RFA again in 2 or 3 years and they are paying UFA money for one 2 or 3 years of a bonus heavy contract and they would have gotten more draft picks.  It is more risk for the habs, but you have a better chance of the canes not matching.

 

what are other GM’s going to say?? MB broke the unwritten code???? If you had a brain you would be listening to what all of the other analysts are saying, rather then gm’s.

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Everyone pissing about it not being 9 to 9.5 million instead is absolutely missing the point, just like MB stated in the presser, the extra 500k or million over the course of the year will not make a difference, it is the bonuses that make the difference, and front loaded bonuses to boot. You think adding an extra 35k per bi weekly cheque was going to be the make or break point for Carolina? You think a higher cap hit matters to them, they aren't even cap strapped. You think maybe asking a low budget NHL team who has been losing money year after year to dish out 22 million in lump sums during the next 12  months is the most effective and only play to hit them where it hurts and give yourself the best chance to walk away with the player? I'm thinking so.

 

You also inflict the grievous wound of paying all that ridiculous money to a player who does not want to be in your organization and you can't trade him without paying him that 22mill. It could trigger that innate response to say "To hell with that, i'm not cutting 22 million dollars worth of cheques, an entire season's worth of gate revenue, to this kid who doesn't even want to be here." Either way, this was a brilliant play with the best odds of success, there was no other strategy with higher odds, the high signing bonuses were the way forward here. They can still shop while they wait, deal with maneuvering after, the only guys they would really be interested in at this point who are left are Gardiner and maybe Dzingel. If they really want Gardiner, there is nothing stopping them from making him an offer and signing him regardless of what is going on with this offer sheet shuffle things around after.

 

You know, for all the fantasy talk we see offseason after offseason about offer sheets and wanting your GM to be aggressive in his hunt to improve your team, some of the reaction to this well planned move is pretty disappointing. People just refuse to give Bergevin props, but they are right there within seconds to give him wallops though, and if they are forced to give him props it is the most reluctantly forced thing ever, veiled behind the hope his plan fails all together so the wallops can continue two fold. The man has made some blunders over the years, he has also done some pretty savy stuff, it is time to stop pigeon holing him into the peg where he can't do anything good even when he does something good, the negative twist must always exist. He put himself and his team in a bad spot based on some of his failed ideas in the past, but man am I going to plainly admit he has dug himself out of that spot commendably and through good to very good decisions,consistently, over the course of the last 24 months. Not many GMs would have the resolve to dig out of such a hole in a market like this, and not many would have been resourceful enough to pull it off the way he has, I'd argue majority of current GMs would have failed to make the situation better in such a short amount of time, if at all. He is adapting and evolving on the job, he is much better at what he is doing and how he does now than he was 3 or 4 years ago even. I can honestly say he has changed my mind about what he is capable of as a GM, and that happened simply because I was open minded enough to have my mind changed at all. Some of you here, and many on social media could perhaps do the same, it is pretty hard to give this guy a bad mark based on his body of work during the past 2 years, and 2 years is a long time. Perhaps a little recognition and hopefulness going into the next 2 years would be in order? Just a thought..

 

 

End Rant,

Apologies 

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Why? 

 

GM's are who MB has to work with, not the media "analysts" 

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16 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Who cares that the canes were offering $8m for 8 years.  I guess you have the comprehension of  a 5 year old and need everything spelt out.  I said that the habs was close to or around current market rates.  Current market rates for RFA’s is not 8 years anymore.  Mathews and Nylander changed that.  The are all looking for 5 to 6 years deals now.

 

if the habs offered him a 2 or 3 yr deal at $10m with a heavy bonus laden contract that may have caused more hesitation on the canes.  Since they may have seen that as an overpay, since he would would be an RFA again in 2 or 3 years and they are paying UFA money for one 2 or 3 years of a bonus heavy contract and they would have gotten more draft picks.  It is more risk for the habs, but you have a better chance of the canes not matching.

 

what are other GM’s going to say?? MB broke the unwritten code???? If you had a brain you would be listening to what all of the other analysts are saying, rather then gm’s.

 

Good to have you back!

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1 hour ago, kaos said:

No

Come up with a more realistic plan of improving the team.  Don't risk the improvements you have made on a hail Mary play, that leaves your team worse off then it was last year.

This team right now is not better minus Shaw and plus $13 million 

 

Ugh...

 

So in the event of the worst case scenario, the team minus Shaw and Deslaurier but with the full time addition of Poehling and Suzuki are much worse? 

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20 minutes ago, Link67 said:

 

Ugh...

 

So in the event of the worst case scenario, the team minus Shaw and Deslaurier but with the full time addition of Poehling and Suzuki are much worse? 

You cant expect Poehling or Suzuki to contribute this year.

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16 minutes ago, kaos said:

You cant expect Poehling or Suzuki to contribute this year.

 

I definitely expect Poehling to contribute this year, Suzuki is likely a year away and would benefit from a year in the AHL but you never know.  Trading Shaw and Deslauriers has created more room.

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Oh and just to reiterate, Aho SIGNED this offer sheet, meaning he likes the contract. Him and the Canes were not able to reach an agreement before this. But Bergevin should have given the player MORE than he wanted. 

 

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1 hour ago, John B said:

What I don't like:

2.  The term.  I don't expect the Habs to be Cup contenders (well real Cup contenders) for at least a couple of years.  So you have a 3 year window with Aho before he becomes a UFA and possibly leaves.  I would rather have seen either a 4 year or 7 year deal.

2

 

If you go four years, it still takes him to UFA status and you're actually narrowing the window.  At seven years, the compensation would have been higher as the max denominator is five years.  In other words, had they offered $8.46M per year for seven years, that would work out to an offer sheet equivalent of $11.84 million which would have put them in four first-round pick territory.

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So I have a theory ... maybe a tin-hat one, but a theory nevertheless.

 

Prior to the free agent period start, Carolina said that they had been approached about Aho by multiple teams (including the Habs), and that they were going to match any offer sheet, but were willing to discuss a trade.

 

It's possible that Bergevin was trying to make a trade happen, but could not get any commitment from Carolina, and was worried about another team snatching Aho in a trade. So they decided to lock in the trade with an offer sheet that (1) they were willing to pay Aho once he was a Hab, and (2) that would be distasteful for Carolina (heavy first-year costs and only five years). The offer sheet would not need to be impossible for Carolina, just high enough for Aho to sign it, and for it to be very unattractive to the Canes (and Dundon).

 

Now continue the trade discussion, figuring out what player(s) Habs would send over as part of a side deal, and what they might get in return. The side deal would likely be skewed toward the Canes, and would give them some shorter-term prospects, whether 2019 draftees or young NHL players. If they can agree, Carolina declines the offer sheet, Aho becomes a Hab and the side deal is consummated.

 

Meanwhile, while negotiating, the offer sheet is hanging over the Carolina GM's head, giving him an incentive to negotiate since he neither wants to lose Aho for just picks, or pay the contract terms that the Habs offered. But he can't negotiate with anyone else since Aho now cannot be traded anywhere until next summer.

 

Maybe this is comparable to the fake moon landing theories, but something like this would actually explain today's events.

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As to whether Bergevin will be blackballed by the other GMs -- I don't think so. Others have tried the offer sheets in the past but not been accepted (by the players). And yet others have wanted to but not dared. Having another GM do it, and show it's OK may give courage to others as well.

 

A few GMs (such as Carolina) may not want to deal with him, but it really will be a minority, I believe. In the end, everyone is in it for themselves -- and their own teams.

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I don't see any real downside to the offer sheet for us. Note that it wasn't made until after all the UFAs we wanted were gone. So by now tying up 8 million in cap space for a week doesn't hurt us. We can still sign Gardiner or make a trade taking on some significant cap or a bad contract. 

 

Plus I wonder if Philadelphia might be more likely to trade us one of their Dmen seeing as we've announced we are willing to give offer sheets.

 

Even if Carolina matches we've pushed up the cost for bunch of other teams to resign their own RFAs. 

 

Maybe offering more would have been better but we already have some people complaining the 3 picks were too much. Also we do need to say some space to try to get a left D. 

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58 minutes ago, illWill said:

Oh and just to reiterate, Aho SIGNED this offer sheet, meaning he likes the contract. Him and the Canes were not able to reach an agreement before this. But Bergevin should have given the player MORE than he wanted. 

 

Nice try trolls

 

I don’t think it’s about giving Aho more than he wanted, but adding a couple million to the initial year by increasing the deal and then adding a first round pick to the compensation might push them not to match.. 

 

You gotta spend $21.3 million in the first twelve months and only get a 1, 2, and 3.

 

or

 

You gotta spend 24 million in the first or you get 2 1s, a 2, and a 3.

 

If you are trying to take advantage or a cheap owner give that owner a little more incentive to keep his money. 

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14 minutes ago, TheDriveFor25 said:

 

I don’t think it’s about giving Aho more than he wanted, but adding a couple million to the initial year by increasing the deal and then adding a first round pick to the compensation might push them not to match.. 

 

You gotta spend $21.3 million in the first twelve months and only get a 1, 2, and 3.

 

or

 

You gotta spend 24 million in the first or you get 2 1s, a 2, and a 3.

 

If you are trying to take advantage or a cheap owner give that owner a little more incentive to keep his money. 

 

But if you do a separate deal and give them an additional first rounder to essentially not match the current offer sheet, you are better off since you get Aho at a cheaper rate.

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38 minutes ago, Habsfan84 said:

But if you do a separate deal and give them an additional first rounder to essentially not match the current offer sheet, you are better off since you get Aho at a cheaper rate.

 

And if what the Canes really wanted for Aho was player(s) rather than picks, then the side deal is the only way you can do that. Unless you think you can do it with a conventional trade, which Bergevin clearly did not think he could close.

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

So I have a theory ... maybe a tin-hat one, but a theory nevertheless.

 

Prior to the free agent period start, Carolina said that they had been approached about Aho by multiple teams (including the Habs), and that they were going to match any offer sheet, but were willing to discuss a trade.

 

It's possible that Bergevin was trying to make a trade happen, but could not get any commitment from Carolina, and was worried about another team snatching Aho in a trade. So they decided to lock in the trade with an offer sheet that (1) they were willing to pay Aho once he was a Hab, and (2) that would be distasteful for Carolina (heavy first-year costs and only five years). The offer sheet would not need to be impossible for Carolina, just high enough for Aho to sign it, and for it to be very unattractive to the Canes (and Dundon).

 

Now continue the trade discussion, figuring out what player(s) Habs would send over as part of a side deal, and what they might get in return. The side deal would likely be skewed toward the Canes, and would give them some shorter-term prospects, whether 2019 draftees or young NHL players. If they can agree, Carolina declines the offer sheet, Aho becomes a Hab and the side deal is consummated.

 

Meanwhile, while negotiating, the offer sheet is hanging over the Carolina GM's head, giving him an incentive to negotiate since he neither wants to lose Aho for just picks, or pay the contract terms that the Habs offered. But he can't negotiate with anyone else since Aho now cannot be traded anywhere until next summer.

 

Maybe this is comparable to the fake moon landing theories, but something like this would actually explain today's events.

If I were Bergevin I would be doing exactly this. Enticing the Canes with a skewed side deal if they seem like they’ll match. Conditional picks or prospects. Condition being they go to the canes if Aho plays for the Habs next season. THAT would be shrewd GMing. 

 

As you say, no one else can negotiate now. 

 

Edit: for anyone saying “why not just send Aho a bigger contract offer?” 

 

This way is still better because we save capspace.

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If they wanted to do a side deal I would think Danault  and A extra 2nd would get it done. 

 

So then the deal would be

 

To habs 

Aho 

To Carolina 

Danault, 1st, 2 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick 

 

I think that gets it done, we don't need  Danault as we get Aho and Danault becomes Carolina's replacement center for losing Aho. That would also give us more cap space to go out a get a LD. 

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