Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dlbalr

2019-20 NHL Discussion Thread

Recommended Posts

14 hours ago, sbhatt said:

The thought of the Habs losing playoff games has always been painful for me....until now.  I'd be thrilled if the Pens swept us via three blowouts in exchange for Lafreneiere

 

Edit:  didn't realize it was only 12.5% chance until after original post...not as enthusiastic about a tournament tank now.

I think those are better odd than winning the cup (about 7% in some sites, or 100-1 in others)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I think those are better odd than winning the cup (about 7% in some sites, or 100-1 in others)

 

 

True.  I don't like our chances to go deep, so might as well bow out during the play-in and have a shot at Lafreniere at least.  This is, after all, the same team we watched struggle more often than not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I think those are better odd than winning the cup (about 7% in some sites, or 100-1 in others)

 

I can’t believe the odds of the habs winning can actually be that high.  I’d put them closer to 10000 to 1.

getting that first first pick would dramatically improve the odds in the future  if they can also address the D.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What’s the 87.5% scenario — we pick ninth?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

What’s the 87.5% scenario — we pick ninth?

 

Montreal's scenarios:

 

Lose to PIT, win lottery (12.5% odds) - pick 1st

Lose to PIT, lose lottery (87.5% odds) - pick 9th

Beat PIT, lose in 1st or 2nd round - pick 16th

Lose in Conference Final - pick 28th

Lose in Cup Final - pick 30th

Win Cup Final - pick 31st

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

Montreal's scenarios:

 

Lose to PIT, win lottery (12.5% odds) - pick 1st

Lose to PIT, lose lottery (87.5% odds) - pick 9th

Beat PIT, lose in 1st or 2nd round - pick 16th

Lose in Conference Final - pick 28th

Lose in Cup Final - pick 30th

Win Cup Final - pick 31st

I would be ok if we lose in 1st or 2nd round if our 2nd round draft picks from other teams remain high picks

otherwise, I would prefer we “tank”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I would be ok if we lose in 1st or 2nd round if our 2nd round draft picks from other teams remain high picks

otherwise, I would prefer we “tank”

It’s past the tanking stage.

tanking is a management strategy of selling of your assets and fielding a weak team.  That ship has sailed.  Our results this year were slightly better than tanking in this “reset”.

 

players don’t tank, they may give up on a coach or management., but they aren’t the ones who choose for the team to tank.  
 

We just need to play out the season and with this roster that should get us to the lottery.  It would be a huge upset if we beat the penguins - probably a bigger upset than the Halak year.  And even if we did pull off an upset, it would be because the Penguins royally fxcked up more than anything else.  Even than than we would still be one and done.  This is not a playoff team. It is a lottery team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I would be ok if we lose in 1st or 2nd round if our 2nd round draft picks from other teams remain high picks

otherwise, I would prefer we “tank”

 

most of what I've heard from the "experts is that the top 10-12 picks are very strong ... so I don't want another "OK" first rounder ... I would love a top 10 pick (and even another next season) ... both for the prospects for the "rebuild" and because another playoff miss might just be enough to push MB out the door ... decent-ish recent moves doesn't undo the first five years and his refusal to acknowledge a "window" when Price and Weber were 30&32 at the start of the "reset" two years ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, I'm not crazy about picks 20 and on.... there will be some good players there but there are lots of question marks. ... and for those who think the Habs are too small, the majority of players in the 2nd round on lack size.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lafreniere > Winning vs Pittsburgh & losing round after 

 

Trying to win vs Pittsburgh and every round thereafter > 12.5% chance at 1st overall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Lafreniere > Winning vs Pittsburgh & losing round after 

 

Trying to win vs Pittsburgh and every round thereafter > 12.5% chance at 1st overall

all players see is chance to get a ring, so odds of this or that are meaningless to them and you know Julien is thinking only about winning a cup with this team as well

he has seen enough 1st round picks bust to know draft is a crapshoot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, DON said:

all players see is chance to get a ring, so odds of this or that are meaningless to them and you know Julien is thinking only about winning a cup with this team as well

he has seen enough 1st round picks bust to know draft is a crapshoot.

I’m with you there. I personally don’t like tanking even with 10 games left, if there’s still

a chance at making the playoffs. Players and coaches will be thinking that way as well. Truthfully, although I am someone who hibernated for 3 months in relatively strict fashion until work was again available to me, I’d be excited as heck if I were dawning a Habs jersey with this opportunity.

 

We haven’t talked much about the players and their mentality yet, but after this long of a layoff, it truly is like another season in many ways. Meaning, while the Habs are the underdog even still, the opportunity is there for the taking. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I’m with you there. I personally don’t like tanking even with 10 games left, if there’s still a chance at making the playoffs.

 

There is a way to fix this stupid tanking problem. All it takes is willingness to make a change.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/shane-doan-tanking-gold-plan-nhl-lottery-draft/

 

So, I can't see this happening anytime soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/27/2020 at 4:22 PM, Commandant said:

Yeah, I'm not crazy about picks 20 and on.... there will be some good players there but there are lots of question marks. ... and for those who think the Habs are too small, the majority of players in the 2nd round on lack size.

 

Let's say the Habs draft 9th or 10th. Is it worth bundling the 2 2nd round picks they have which will likely  be high 2nd round picks to move up in the draft along with their 1st round pick?  Or is it a crap shoot from 3 to 10 and not worth it? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Let's say the Habs draft 9th or 10th. Is it worth bundling the 2 2nd round picks they have which will likely  be high 2nd round picks to move up in the draft along with their 1st round pick?  Or is it a crap shoot from 3 to 10 and not worth it? 

 

How high are we moving from 9th?  Do you think anyone in the top 8 takes the goalie, or Jake Sanderson, or Esa Lundell... all three are guys I wouldn't want at 8 or lower, but I could see a team reaching on.  Or does someone do something out of left field like Seider last year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

How high are we moving from 9th?  Do you think anyone in the top 8 takes the goalie, or Jake Sanderson, or Esa Lundell... all three are guys I wouldn't want at 8 or lower, but I could see a team reaching on.  Or does someone do something out of left field like Seider last year?

 

I was just thinking  if there is a guy the Habs really want at 4 or 5 do you use some of your extra picks to try and move up?  I think Don is right that it rarely happens.  It was just a thought because the Habs have many picks and right now quality is more important than quantity. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

I was just thinking  if there is a guy the Habs really want at 4 or 5 do you use some of your extra picks to try and move up?  I think Don is right that it rarely happens.  It was just a thought because the Habs have many picks and right now quality is more important than quantity. 

 

If you really want a specific guy at 4... i dont have an issue with it seeing the habs 50 contract limit situation.

 

I was more saying if you just wanted one of the top 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

I was just thinking  if there is a guy the Habs really want at 4 or 5 do you use some of your extra picks to try and move up?  I think Don is right that it rarely happens.  It was just a thought because the Habs have many picks and right now quality is more important than quantity. 

 

One take on it:
"Well, there’s only been one top-10 draft selection that has been traded in the last 6 years, and that would be the New Jersey Devils’ major trade to acquire goaltender Corey Schneider for the 9th overall selection in the 2013 NHL draft.

Now, what does this tell us? That the likelihood of a top-10 pick getting traded is slim to none. Teams have rarely ever traded down from their positions, and you’d have to go all the way back to the 2008 NHL draft to see the last time a team in the top-10 traded down from their original pick (Islanders moving down from 5th overall to 7th overall, and then again from 7th overall to 9th overall to select Josh Bailey). There simply isn’t enough data to support any claim that could be made. We hope to see one this June, but we wouldn’t bet on it."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Commandant said:

I was more saying if you just wanted one of the top 8

 

And I agree with this ... there is a very good chance that one of the top-eight-ranked players will still be available at 9th pick, because one or two teams will pick someone not ranked in the top eight. So, ninth should still be a very solid pick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DON said:

 

One take on it:
"Well, there’s only been one top-10 draft selection that has been traded in the last 6 years, and that would be the New Jersey Devils’ major trade to acquire goaltender Corey Schneider for the 9th overall selection in the 2013 NHL draft.

Now, what does this tell us? That the likelihood of a top-10 pick getting traded is slim to none. Teams have rarely ever traded down from their positions, and you’d have to go all the way back to the 2008 NHL draft to see the last time a team in the top-10 traded down from their original pick (Islanders moving down from 5th overall to 7th overall, and then again from 7th overall to 9th overall to select Josh Bailey). There simply isn’t enough data to support any claim that could be made. We hope to see one this June, but we wouldn’t bet on it."

Those turned out to be brilliant moves!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If look at this one model;

Overall value of 8&9 are similar, but picking a d-man (Sanderson or Schneider perhaps) has slightly higher value . But, i think also has been shown that if hoping for top line forward or #1 pairing d-man in the top ten, go with a forward (maybe Holtz (playing vs Men in SHL) or Quinn(51g)).

 

 

image.png,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Those turned out to be brilliant moves!

 

Yes, but in opposite directions. 

 

In the Islanders trade, the Leafs moved up to 5 and took Luke Schenn.  The Islanders win that deal by trading down. 

 

In the Devils trade, the Canucks win that trade with Bo Horvat.  The Canucks win that deal by trading up. 

 

So yes, both are brilliant, but the team winning is the opposite in each case...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Those turned out to be brilliant moves!

Yashin for Chara, Pick (Spezza) was most lopsided i can recall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, DON said:

Yashin for Chara, Pick (Spezza) was most lopsided i can recall.

That was right up there with Luong

 

6 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Yes, but in opposite directions. 

 

In the Islanders trade, the Leafs moved up to 5 and took Luke Schenn.  The Islanders win that deal by trading down. 

 

In the Devils trade, the Canucks win that trade with Bo Horvat.  The Canucks win that deal by trading up. 

 

So yes, both are brilliant, but the team winning is the opposite in each case...

Frankly I didn’t like either moves - the devils moving a top 10 pick or the isles moving down.

 

yea, the player selected - Schenn was a lousy #5 pick and the players picked after him sucked.  Bailey is not the type of player I’d hope to get in the top 5 or event but top 10.  Only 3 out of the top 5 players selected were franchise type players, but there were much better players picked that year outside of the top 10.  If you look at Yzerman last year, he picked a guy who was not ranked in the top 10, with his 6th puck.  He didn’t move down, just because the player was ranked lower. You do your scouting, make your list and puck the best player available when it’s your pick.  You don’t move down and hope someone else doesn’t take him.  It’s one thing to try and move up to get some who is a higher rated player, but I don’t like moving down in the first two rounds.  


As far as the Schneider trade, I liked Schneider, but if I’m going to give a top 10 puck for a goalie it has to be someone much better than Schneider. 2nd round pick for him fine.  1at round, no bloody way.  
 

I don’t even think any goalie is worth picking in the top 10 (why to this day, despite price winning a hart and being the top goalie in the world for at least. 2 or 3 of his years in the league, I don’t like the Price pick).  Goalies are too unpredictable at that age and there are a lot of really good goalies picked later in the first round and in the 2nd to 4th rounds.  Lots of vezina winners are later round picks, but much fewer Hart and norris winners (yes, Subban and kucherov were second rounders, but that is not the norm).  it is usually much harder to get a top line centre or dman later than it is a goalie - which is why I can’t understand the panthers pick last year, or thise analysts that are saying that that Russian goalie could be a top 10 puck this year.

 

Anyways, I’m not a fan of trading top 10 picks or moving down from those positions.  I don’t have a problem with giving up #1 picks to sign a elite young RFA that is a franchise type top line player or top pairing dman.  But not for middling support players.  We did that too often going after guys like Tanguay who were past their best due date.  If you are going to move first round picks it has to be for an impact player who has a lot of good years ahead of him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...