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Metallica

What's management doing with how they're building this team????

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I ask this because it doesn't make sense to me.

 

If we're retooling shouldn't we be adding UFA's or making trades  to help us win now? Even if that means trading draft picks and prospects to get a star player. But we don't.

 

If we're not going to trade our draft picks and prospects to help win now but go with development of our young guys....doesn't that mean we are rebuilding?

 

If we're rebuilding aren't we wasting Price and Weber? Wouldn't we be better off trading them now. If we're not trading them Should we not be trying to add to them and trying to win?

 

I just don't get how the team's trying to be built and maybe that's why I have different views of the team then most here.

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Bah, you want to re-litigate this?  Just enjoy the season.  If we're out of the playoff picture, I expect some vets to be sold off and Bergy canned, and his replacement to take a serious look at unloading Price and/or Weber.  It still might be the best outcome longterm for the franchise.  But until then we might as well hope for a good season with the team we have (and that Bergy's clearly sticking with).

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We only have 3 points out of four after two games played, both on the road.

Lets push panic buttons?

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I agree, the timing of this post is odd.

 

That said, I've maintained for a while that the "rebuild" (or retool, or whatever the hell it is) has a structural problem in that it is dependent upon Weber being exempt from the laws of human aging. To my knowledge, there is no Weber-style #1 defenceman in our prospect pool. It's Weber or bust. I think it is unwise to have so much of the team's future hinging on a 34-year-old defender with a lot of hard miles. Say the youngsters - including, improbably, Caufield - take three years to mature into their full potential. Even granting that they are the nucleus of a Cup contender, which is debatable, Weber will be 37.

 

Now consider that teams often need multiple seasons of being contenders before they break through and win. You have to learn how to go from being hotshots to actually being able to win four grinding playoff series. Plus luck plays a huge role. The rebuild, therefore, can't be about building toward one "peak year" and praying that that's enough; it has to be about contending over a number of seasons, if it's to be a realistic plan. So if the youth peak when Weber is 37, they may need further seasons before they go all the way. And Weber will be 38, 39...you see the problem. Even as the rest of the team attains its apogee, he will be regressing. On an $8 mil cap hit.

 

It's not an insurmountable problem. Maybe we could, in a couple of years, both trade a declining Weber - it would have to be some team that is desperate to make the cap floor - and somehow add a #1 d-man to replace him. But both of those feats are easier said than done. Prima facie, then, the argument stands: the rebuild is structurally flawed.

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39 minutes ago, Dalhabs said:

We only have 3 points out of four after two games played, both on the road.

Lets push panic buttons?

Who's pushing the panic button?????

 

Its not how you start the year its how you end it. The habs have been known to finish really bad at the tail end of the season. 

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My point of this post is to understand the lack of movement from management and why people think it will result in something different this year.

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18 minutes ago, Metallica said:

My point of this post is to understand the lack of movement from management and why people think it will result in something different this year.

Because for some, hope is a plan.

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In Montreal if it's not through the draft or through trade, it isn't going to happen.  Getting that big ufa to tip the scale in your favor is not a reality here. Depth and balance are the approach this year and last. Im not a fan of paying a goalie 10 million per year. Tanking is not a recipe for definite success. We've seen that in Arizona edmonton buffalo. It's a tough market and its becoming a young man's game. 

 

Bergevin has made some big mistakes in the last few years but last year, I feel like he saw the light. Get deep. Play the odds at the draft by not trading away picks. Identify that the league is getting younger and focus on improvement through the draft. Most experts rank Montreal's prospects in the top 5. In a world where young players are getting more chances, having a good stock of strong prospects is a strength. 

 

Are they much better this year? I don't know yet.  If Suzuki and fleury and poeling improve on that depth, maybe they are. Next year romanov and caufeld could improve it some more. Weal wants 3 million a year? Evan's is right behind willing to take 800. 

 

If the prospects and overall depth were stagnant, I would agree with the OP. But even though this year may not be contender time, the future is bright for the habs and their fans.

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I was just thinking about this while I was at work today.  It's funny that I come onto this site and see that somebody started a thread about it.

 

I want to start by giving some kudos to Bergevin for sticking to his plan.  I'm not completely clear on what his plan is, but it seems like he's not willing to mortgage the future at this point.  I think it's a smart move, because I don't see any way this team is going to win a Cup this year short of acquiring Connor McDavid and adding a top pair LD without giving up anything of real consequence the other way.  As far as giving a name to what Bergevin is doing goes...I'm going to call it a re-tool, which I'm not a big fan of.  IMO a re-tool is a direction a GM chooses when he doesn't know what direction to choose (rebuild or all in are the directions IMO).  Sometimes this plan of action works though.  It's what the Habs and a lot of other teams have been doing for a long time now.

 

Since Bergevin seems to be placing a higher value on the future than the present, it might be a good ideal for him to start moving on from some veterans that may not serve a purpose or play as big of a role when this team enters their Cup window (which might be a few years from now).  I would be looking at moving Petry and Tatar in the next couple years.  Petry's contract expires after next season and he becomes a UFA at 33 years old.  If he continues to produce like he has the last couple of seasons, you can bet that he'll want well over $6 million/season with term.  That might be fine for a year or two, but after that I don't think he'll be worth that cap hit.  So unless Habs can convince him to take a 2 year extension it's not going to a pretty contract.  Tatar will only be 30 when his contract expires, but again he'll likely be looking for a raise and term (likely 5 to 6 years) if he decides to return at all. The trade value of both of these players will never be higher than it is now and both players will have a limited window of effectiveness during Montreal's prime contention years.  If Bergevin gets a good offer for Weber or Price, he has to strongly consider it.  Their cap hits could hurt this team during their Cup window.  I think Price will age gracefully like Brodeur or Luongo did and still be a good/solid starting goaltender for the duration of his contract, but good/solid starters aren't worth a $10.5 million cap hit.  More like ~$6 million.   As for Weber, we are already starting to see signs of the decline.  Honestly I don't think the Habs could get fair value (or at least worthwhile value) for Price or Weber due to their cap hits and term and Price's NMC.  Price isn't going anywhere unless he asks to.

 

Overall it's all about cap and asset management right now.  If the Habs are smart with the way they handle contracts and don't sign anymore Alzners while handing out any ridiculous contracts, the cap should be good.  It will just be a matter of getting younger at some key roster positions to try and have a lengthy Cup window.

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9 minutes ago, John B said:

I was just thinking about this while I was at work today.  It's funny that I come onto this site and see that somebody started a thread about it.

 

I want to start by giving some kudos to Bergevin for sticking to his plan.  I'm not completely clear on what his plan is, but it seems like he's not willing to mortgage the future at this point.  I think it's a smart move, because I don't see any way this team is going to win a Cup this year short of acquiring Connor McDavid and adding a top pair LD without giving up anything of real consequence the other way.  As far as giving a name to what Bergevin is doing goes...I'm going to call it a re-tool, which I'm not a big fan of.  IMO a re-tool is a direction a GM chooses when he doesn't know what direction to choose (rebuild or all in are the directions IMO).  Sometimes this plan of action works though.  It's what the Habs and a lot of other teams have been doing for a long time now.

 

Since Bergevin seems to be placing a higher value on the future than the present, it might be a good ideal for him to start moving on from some veterans that may not serve a purpose or play as big of a role when this team enters their Cup window (which might be a few years from now).  I would be looking at moving Petry and Tatar in the next couple years.  Petry's contract expires after next season and he becomes a UFA at 33 years old.  If he continues to produce like he has the last couple of seasons, you can bet that he'll want well over $6 million/season with term.  That might be fine for a year or two, but after that I don't think he'll be worth that cap hit.  So unless Habs can convince him to take a 2 year extension it's not going to a pretty contract.  Tatar will only be 30 when his contract expires, but again he'll likely be looking for a raise and term (likely 5 to 6 years) if he decides to return at all. The trade value of both of these players will never be higher than it is now and both players will have a limited window of effectiveness during Montreal's prime contention years.  If Bergevin gets a good offer for Weber or Price, he has to strongly consider it.  Their cap hits could hurt this team during their Cup window.  I think Price will age gracefully like Brodeur or Luongo did and still be a good/solid starting goaltender for the duration of his contract, but good/solid starters aren't worth a $10.5 million cap hit.  More like ~$6 million.   As for Weber, we are already starting to see signs of the decline.  Honestly I don't think the Habs could get fair value (or at least worthwhile value) for Price or Weber due to their cap hits and term and Price's NMC.  Price isn't going anywhere unless he asks to.

 

Overall it's all about cap and asset management right now.  If the Habs are smart with the way they handle contracts and don't sign anymore Alzners while handing out any ridiculous contracts, the cap should be good.  It will just be a matter of getting younger at some key roster positions to try and have a lengthy Cup window.

I get were you going but if this is the plan you don't need Price or Weber and would get there faster if you move them now rather than later. You don't need to tank by trading them you can get good younger players back that fit the mold your trying to build and not having long contracts tied to aging players hold you down.

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If the Habs were to offer a nice upstairs job to Weber a few years from now, at, say, $1M/year, and he were to choose to retire as a player, the Preds would end up absorbing most of the cap hit, not us. Of course it depends whether five years in red, blue and white would have been enough to want him to stay with the organization in some kind of role.

 

Just sayin' ...

 

Screen_Shot_2016-06-29_at_5.20.33_PM.0.p

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I agree, the timing of this post is odd.

 

That said, I've maintained for a while that the "rebuild" (or retool, or whatever the hell it is) has a structural problem in that it is dependent upon Weber being exempt from the laws of human aging. To my knowledge, there is no Weber-style #1 defenceman in our prospect pool. It's Weber or bust. I think it is unwise to have so much of the team's future hinging on a 34-year-old defender with a lot of hard miles. Say the youngsters - including, improbably, Caufield - take three years to mature into their full potential. Even granting that they are the nucleus of a Cup contender, which is debatable, Weber will be 37.

 

Now consider that teams often need multiple seasons of being contenders before they break through and win. You have to learn how to go from being hotshots to actually being able to win four grinding playoff series. Plus luck plays a huge role. The rebuild, therefore, can't be about building toward one "peak year" and praying that that's enough; it has to be about contending over a number of seasons, if it's to be a realistic plan. So if the youth peak when Weber is 37, they may need further seasons before they go all the way. And Weber will be 38, 39...you see the problem. Even as the rest of the team attains its apogee, he will be regressing. On an $8 mil cap hit.

 

It's not an insurmountable problem. Maybe we could, in a couple of years, both trade a declining Weber - it would have to be some team that is desperate to make the cap floor - and somehow add a #1 d-man to replace him. But both of those feats are easier said than done. Prima facie, then, the argument stands: the rebuild is structurally flawed.

 

Zdeno Chara has aged out of being the Bruins the #1 defenceman but is still a quality top 4 guy. 

 

They have a number 1 guy who they drafted 14th overall.  Their number 2 was acquired as an undrafted free agent. 

Shea Weber himself was a 2nd round pick.  The guy we traded for him, our previous #1, was a second round pick. The guy before that, Markov, was a 7th rounder. 

Lets look at the other final four teams last year...


The Blues top defenceman is debateable.  Some will say Pietrangelo (a 3rd overall pick)... others will say its Parayko, who was picked at the bottom of the third round. In any event I maintain that Parayko could be a #1 D on many teams in the NHL. 
The Canes have Jaccob Slavin, drafted in the 4th round as their top guy. 
The Sharks have Karlsson (who they traded for) and was a 15th pick, and Brent Burns (who they also traded for) and was a 20th overall pick. 

You can go further through the league and find many top defencemen taken outside of the top 10 of the draft.  

 

The fact is that defencemen develop later, and there is no way of knowing that none of our D can be #1s.... I'd argue that its too early to really tell with any of them, but Romanov, Brook, Fleury, and Struble all have some of the skills teams look for in number 1 ds.  Its not a guarantee that they will develop into that role, but its possible and by having a bunch of them, you can have a number 1 D. 

 

 

 

Getting the number 1 C is much harder than getting the number 1 D.  The key to this rebuild remains in the hands of Kotkaniemi. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Metallica said:

Who's pushing the panic button?????

 

Its not how you start the year its how you end it. The habs have been known to finish really bad at the tail end of the season. 

 

The Habs were 7-2-1 in their last ten games last season. 

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20 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

The Habs were 7-2-1 in their last ten games last season. 

They lost the big games that matter down the end of the season.

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11 minutes ago, Metallica said:

I get were you going but if this is the plan you don't need Price or Weber and would get there faster if you move them now rather than later. You don't need to tank by trading them you can get good younger players back that fit the mold your trying to build and not having long contracts tied to aging players hold you down.

I'd be willing to trade them, but I think it would be more difficult to get good value for them because of their contracts.  Not every team will want an $8 million good, but aging defenseman that is signed for another 6 years after this one.  Price is a whole other story.  He has a full NMC.  He isn't going anywhere unless he wants to.  Even if he did want to, he's chosing the destination which will probably result in less of a return.  It could end up like when Calgary traded Iginla where they probably should have gotten a lot more for him elsewhere, but he would only agree to go to Pittsburgh.  So while the Habs may not need Price and Weber to accomplish the goal, they still need to get good/fair value for them if they are being traded.

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Just now, John B said:

I'd be willing to trade them, but I think it would be more difficult to get good value for them because of their contracts.  Not every team will want an $8 million good, but aging defenseman that is signed for another 6 years after this one.  Price is a whole other story.  He has a full NMC.  He isn't going anywhere unless he wants to.  Even if he did want to, he's chosing the destination which will probably result in less of a return.  It could end up like when Calgary traded Iginla where they probably should have gotten a lot more for him elsewhere, but he would only agree to go to Pittsburgh.  So while the Habs may not need Price and Weber to accomplish the goal, they still need to get good/fair value for them if they are being traded.

Well if you look at a team that has a window to win a cup, but just needs better goaltending San Jose and Toronto come to mind. We could take on their current goaltenders contract that would lesson the blow from price's contract. Plus get a top prospect and a top pick out of it.

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31 minutes ago, Metallica said:

They lost the big games that matter down the end of the season.

 

The also won big games, like the win against Tampa to keep their season alive.  Or numerous other games that were "season on the line" type games.  The playoff race was so close, that they won lots of must win games.  Yes they lost to Columbus in a big game... but that doesn't mean the other 7 wins in their last ten weren't "big games"... the game against Columbus wouldn't have even mattered if they didn't win the earlier games... So this narrative that they were bad down the stretch or that they didn't win big games is b.s. 

 

By your definition 30 NHL teams lost a Big Game that mattered down the end of the season.  The only one who didn't lose a big game was the Blues.

 

They were a bubble team that finished two points out of the playoffs... thats what they were... lets not make other narratives that revolve around being tired or not having enough depth, or choking in big games, cause that isn't what happened. 

They were a team that after 82 games, fell just short... when they had 96 points which makes the playoffs in all but 2 seasons since the 2005 lockout and introduction of the shootout (and made the playoffs in every year before that). 

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4 minutes ago, Metallica said:

Well if you look at a team that has a window to win a cup, but just needs better goaltending San Jose and Toronto come to mind. We could take on their current goaltenders contract that would lesson the blow from price's contract. Plus get a top prospect and a top pick out of it.

 

Toronto isn't trading Andersen for Price.... nor is Andersen a bad goaltender.  With his contract at 5.5 million he's a damn bargain. 

Price might be a small upgrade in talent, but for a capped out team like Toronto, the extra 5 million a season would not be worth it... Andersen is more than good enough.  It's their D that will be their Achilles heel.

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1 hour ago, BCHabnut said:

Are they much better this year? 

On paper, slightly I would say, but I still see them finishing 9th again.

But even though this year may not be contender time, the future is bright for the habs and their fans.

Agree with this and have had 2 entertaining games so far, so I got no complaints, I would bitch about failure to add a top 4 LW d-man, but they didn't and we will see if it bites them in ass or maybe Bergy will add one at deadline, if team is in contention.

Team has assets and cap room, so who knows what team will look like in at start of March?

 

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1 hour ago, John B said:

I'd be willing to trade them, but I think it would be more difficult to get good value for them because of their contracts.  Not every team will want an $8 million good, but aging defenseman that is signed for another 6 years after this one.  Price is a whole other story.  He has a full NMC.  He isn't going anywhere unless he wants to.  Even if he did want to, he's chosing the destination which will probably result in less of a return.  It could end up like when Calgary traded Iginla where they probably should have gotten a lot more for him elsewhere, but he would only agree to go to Pittsburgh.  So while the Habs may not need Price and Weber to accomplish the goal, they still need to get good/fair value for them if they are being traded.

I could see toronto as a trading partner and as much as I’d hate to address their biggest need, if we could work out a deal for Nylander and Sandin for Weber+, I think that may be a doable deal that benefits both teams.  Though like i said, as a habs fan, I wouldn’t want to be the one that improves their cup chances in the short term.

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I thought about Boston and Chara as well when considering the Weber topic. I’ve never thought that Chara and Weber were necessarily the exact same type of defensemen. However, people generally consider Boston a team that can make some noise, and even though they miss the playoffs from time to time, they never had to trade away Chara for fear that he would be too old to be their number one during a future “window”. They have a new window, and he is no longer the best d-man on their team and despite his age, he still has a serviceable impact on their team.  I think it’s perfectly possible for the Habs to be a competitive team with an older Weber who is now only considered a top 4 defenseman, rather than the top defenseman on the team. That reality is still years away, and that gives us plenty of time to have and/or acquire other players who can grow into the role without even having to get rid of him. It’s also not that I want to wait years; I think we can win with Weber as a number one in the meantime. That’s why I would have agreed that we should have perhaps made at least one other move in the off season. 

 

With that being said, I think there are other ways to speed up a rebuild versus trading away your best players. These players (Weber and Price) will be good for years to come. It depends who would be returning in a trade for Weber but it would have to be a future top pairing D-man+ for me to see how it would speed things (without a doubt) up and make sense. 

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Is this for real?

 

They have three points against two good teams and look to be a deeper lineup than they’ve had in a long time.

They went from an empty cupboard to what most experts agree is one of the better prospect pools in the NHL.

 

MB has done a great job building the team. It doesn’t have to be a rebuild or a retool.. it’s a whole new year with lots of time to decide what to do at the deadline.

 

He signed Aho to an offer sheet and offered Gardiner a contract. He’s building this team and this year could be special. He has young guys fighting to crack the lineup and a fast young core with the bonus of having a Price and Weber. No need to worry about where they’ll both be in a year or two... they are here now and both wanting to win. 

Sit back and enjoy it.. 

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This is a little shortsighted in my opinion.  First of all of Aho wound up a Hab many would consider them a very strong team.  That is just ONE extra player!  Realistically, Montreal is two pieces away from being a contender.  But the truth is - nobody and I mean nobody would have said St. Louis was one piece away from a Champion last January.  Yet, that is all they were missing.  Are the Habs that close?  Maybe?  Maybe not?

 

What we do know for sure is that the Habs have a strong corp of young talent, they have a solid lineup with depth, they have draft picks - AND they have Price and Weber and they have CAP ROOM!

 

Seriously, who do they get to replace Price and/or Weber?  And if you say younger players or cap room - why?  We HAVE cap room, and we have younger players.  Every team should be grooming goaltenders and defencemen no matter what.  New Jersey did and Brodeur played for something like 40 years! (Obviously an exaggeration, but not by much!).

 

Lastly, Salaries today don't equal Salaries tomorrow!  If they did Sidney Crosby would be making a lot more than he is now.  When he signed his contract it was a blockbuster.  The kind of dollars many thought at that time could cripple a franchise.  A few years later and it is close to what we offered Aho!  McDavid makes 50% more than Crosby (or close to it).  When Weber and/or Price get older they may or may not still be strong players.  (See Chara, Brodeur, Chelios, etc)  But their contracts may not seem like the anchors they look like now either.  Hell a $4 million deal used to look like a lot.!

 

I like the direction the Habs are going (at least for now until Bergevin screws it up).  And I like that we have Price and Weber to mentor our young players and also make sure they aren't thrown to the wolves every night.  Good teams are a mix of talent and grit, youth and experience, superstars and grinders.  And, in this argument, if going ALL young was the answer the Oilers would have won a cup by now!

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I honestly hear this opinion from other Habs fans and I don't understand it.

 

Literally, who's available for our picks and prospects?

 

It's week one and everyone is trying to win hockey games, not sell their stars.

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It's clear Molson and Bergevin and probably most fans look at last year and how Montreal came within 2 points of making the playoffs and think now that Price and Weber are healthy, and here's the critical part, the young kids take the next step, then the playoffs are achievable.  If that's the case then, then at the trade deadline Bergevin will have to make a move to bolster the lineup

 

Clearly the above is wishing more than anything based on fact.  Expecting Weber and Price to remain healthy is no sure thing.  Kotkaniemi could easily run into the dreaded sophomore slump.  Chirot is a complete unknown.  Cant expect Domi and Danault to have career years again.  This team is relying on Cale Fleury to contribute all year and at some point another rookie like Poehling to step up.  It's not a good plan, then team needs help, especially at the Left handed defenseman spot.

 

This team can have another successful season but alot of things have to fall into place for this team to make the playoffs.

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