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Habsfan89

No other thing to do but clean house and start over.

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The Athletic did a deep dive on MTL’s numbers and we’re a good - but unlucky team. 
 

An entire wholesale to me seems bitterly nihilistic. I would stay the course, make smart moves at the deadline. Keep Petry, move Kovalchuk and other UFAs.

 

Sometimes good teams have bad years. We are not a bad team.

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You are what your record says you are, 

 

3 years straight of bad luck and missing the playoffs? I don't dont buy bad luck 

 

CJ must be really unlucky, he has missed the playoffs 6 out 7 years 

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2 hours ago, zumpano21 said:

The Athletic did a deep dive on MTL’s numbers and we’re a good - but unlucky team.

Read it, don't think is quite that clean cut.

Team has some good fancy stats, but scoring and keeping pucks out of own net are aim of game...and Habs have had a lot of goals go in their net, that haven't had anything to do with luck.

And aimlessly putting lots of pucks on net, sometimes works but obviously not always if don't have the elite skilled forwards to finish/set-up plays.

Blaming Refs or bad luck for season long results is total BS, in my opinion.

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Julien said ...

Quote

It’s OK to point the finger at your players, but if they’re doing everything they can to try and score and it’s not going in, sometimes it’s called bad luck. But some people are going to tell you that you make your own luck, and sometimes that’s the case too.

 

In the end, it's shooting that's too often not going in the net, and goaltending that's too often allowing pucks to go into our net. In spite of the Habs doing considerably better in controlling play and scoring chances.

 

Luck or not? That's an excellent question. :popcorn:

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I think there is a lot of merrit that this is only the second team that these kind of numbers have happened to and they missed the playoffs two.years in a row since 2005 

 

It shows that a lot of it is luck.

 

Some of it is also on goaltending... which is why the Habs have to be serious this summer in getting a good backup.  Price is better with rest and so the backup jas to be able to put up 16-17 or so wins and ~38 points out of 30 games started.

 

That would solve a lot of the issues imo.

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I won't pretend I'm much of a statistician. The Habs are 2nd in the league in total shots taken (I believe they're first in shots per game). Their shooting percentage is 8.7% (152GF, 1746Shots, 8th worst in the league). Flip it the other way, and they're giving up a 9.86% shooting percentage (156GA/1582 shots, 13th worst in the league). That's just raw numbers and not looking into high danger shots or whatever the fancy folks call them. The Habs are bottom 10 (6th worst) when you compare their "shooting percentage differential" compared to rest of the NHL. Interestingly enough, that stat nearly mirrors the standings, as the Habs are lumped with the Wings, Devils, Kings, Sharks, and Ducks. 

 

Funny how a simple stat like that seems to correlate with the standings, however flawed it may be. 

 

Go back a few years when Therrien should have lost his job during that horrible skid, and I remember being told that the horrible shooting percentage that the Habs had then wasn't sustainable and they'd eventually get back to the norm. They never did. 

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7 hours ago, huzer said:

I won't pretend I'm much of a statistician. The Habs are 2nd in the league in total shots taken (I believe they're first in shots per game). Their shooting percentage is 8.7% (152GF, 1746Shots, 8th worst in the league). Flip it the other way, and they're giving up a 9.86% shooting percentage (156GA/1582 shots, 13th worst in the league). That's just raw numbers and not looking into high danger shots or whatever the fancy folks call them. The Habs are bottom 10 (6th worst) when you compare their "shooting percentage differential" compared to rest of the NHL. Interestingly enough, that stat nearly mirrors the standings, as the Habs are lumped with the Wings, Devils, Kings, Sharks, and Ducks. 

 

Funny how a simple stat like that seems to correlate with the standings, however flawed it may be. 

 

Go back a few years when Therrien should have lost his job during that horrible skid, and I remember being told that the horrible shooting percentage that the Habs had then wasn't sustainable and they'd eventually get back to the norm. They never did. 

 

The shooting percentage did get back to the norm though.  It was fine last year and we were one of the top 5v5 teams in the league in goals.  Last years useless pp was the reason they missed the playoffs... and the lack of high danger chances on the pp showed that 31st ranked pp was not luck... it was a terrible pp.

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7 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

The shooting percentage did get back to the norm though.  It was fine last year and we were one of the top 5v5 teams in the league in goals.  Last years useless pp was the reason they missed the playoffs... and the lack of high danger chances on the pp showed that 31st ranked pp was not luck... it was a terrible pp.

Every year there is some excuse or the other.

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Time to put the "No Excuses" sign back up 

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24 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

The shooting percentage did get back to the norm though.  It was fine last year and we were one of the top 5v5 teams in the league in goals.  Last years useless pp was the reason they missed the playoffs... and the lack of high danger chances on the pp showed that 31st ranked pp was not luck... it was a terrible pp.


I was referring to the Therrien year, not last year. 

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21 minutes ago, huzer said:


I was referring to the Therrien year, not last year. 

 

That is 3-4 years ago now though... the missed playoffs therrien year was 2016... and the firing was 2017.

 

The predictions that the low shooting percentage was unsustainable were correct.  It eventually came back to normal.

 

As for this year, the shooting percentage isnt even that low... its the save percentage that has really been the habs issue.  Overall price has not been good enough and his backups have been even worse overall.

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9 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

That is 3-4 years ago now though... the missed playoffs therrien year was 2016... and the firing was 2017.

 

The predictions that the low shooting percentage was unsustainable were correct.  It eventually came back to normal.

 

As for this year, the shooting percentage isnt even that low... its the save percentage that has really been the habs issue.  Overall price has not been good enough and his backups have been even worse overall.

You are right that price has not been good enough, but the seam plays, tap ins, two on ones,  breakaways this year have been off the charts.  It's not high danger scoring chances, but more like 75 % chance this will be a goal.

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Just now, BCHabnut said:

You are right that price has not been good enough, but the seam play, rap in, two on one two on one, breakaways this year have been iff the charts.  It's not high danger scoring chances, but more like 75 % chance this will be a goal.

 

Yes the d hasnt been good enough either.

 

Weber has fallen off defensively even if hes just as good offensively.

Chiarot has been decent

Petry has been fine.

 

The rest of the LHD have been worse than they were last year.  Fleury has been good for.a 20.year old rookie but hes still a 20 year old rookie.

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

That is 3-4 years ago now though... the missed playoffs therrien year was 2016... and the firing was 2017.

 

The predictions that the low shooting percentage was unsustainable were correct.  It eventually came back to normal.

 

As for this year, the shooting percentage isnt even that low... its the save percentage that has really been the habs issue.  Overall price has not been good enough and his backups have been even worse overall.


So bottom 10 shooting percentage is acceptable? I don’t know what the historical average for “normal” would be, but it would appear that for this season, it’s not normal. Maybe everyone else is above normal?

 

My point to all of this isn’t that the Habs didn’t recover eventually. It’s that they didn’t recover that season. That’s why I have doubts that they will recover this season. I hope they do, but 50 games is a pretty decent sample size as to how the current season will most likely end up. 

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8.7 is normal.... opponents goalies having a .913 save percentage against us is normal. 

 

Its not an outlier.

 

The habs have a 992 pdo... thats slightly below expected... but its not outrageous.

 

We arent in the 980 range or the 120 range where you expect a huge reversion to the mean.

 

The difference between an 8.7 shooting percentage and 9.7 (top 10 in the league).. is small, its a goal here and a goal there. There is parity in the numbers in the middle of the pack.  This isn't the 2017-18 season where the team shot 5.9%...thats the outlier... thats the unsustainable number.

 

You also.use the word "acceptable" as if those small percentages in save percentage is something a coach, a gm or a player can change... they arent... thats why its down to luck.  

 

Shooting percentages arent something that a team can really control.  Thats why they are basically seen as luck.  You can have essentially the same team with the same personnel and the same system and shoot in the top 10 one year and bottom ten the next.  If your gm is chasing shooting percentage, hes d3stined to fail, its too unpredictable.  Chase players who can control shot share... not shooting percentage.  The sign of a sustainably good team is consistently out shooting and outchancing an opponent... its about controlling the play... it not about out-shooting percentaging them.   

 

Its unacceptable if the team is getting outshot by 10 everynight (see detroit). 

 

You fix what can be controlled... thats what is acceptable or not... and recognize that some amount of luck is still part of sports... see the best team in the nhl in a long, long time losing 4 straight playoff games last year 

 

 

The biggest issue for the Habs this season is not the shooting percentage.  Its the goaltending numbers that can be controlled and are unacceptable (those are on the goalies and the team defence).  Its also the fact that the habs have a terrible record in one goal games (and thats probably not on anyone... its another thing that is unsustainable over several seasons).

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Primarily, I thought it was interesting how it seemed to relate to where the Habs (and nearly every team) are in the standings. I know it's flawed boiling down such a simple stat to the success or failure of the team. 

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Habs take a lot of shots from far away with no screens, 

 

just cross the blue line and throw it at the net, 

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1 hour ago, Chris said:

Habs take a lot of shots from far away with no screens, 

 

just cross the blue line and throw it at the net, 

High danger area shots are also tracked and I believe the habs rank high in high danger shots for as well. 

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31 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

High danger area shots are also tracked and I believe the habs rank high in high danger shots for as well. 

 

Yes and yes.

 

They also rank high in expected goals.

 

The stats debunk the perimeter only team argument 

 

 

Defensively if you want to say that of the shots given up, the high danger percentage is high... thats also true (and not typical of CJ teams)

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No clue what an expected goal is, but either you shoot and score or you dont. 

 

All those fancy stats the past 3 years havent gotten a playoff spot 

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Thats fine, be ignorant of the stats.  I always find those arguments strange... you could know more information but you choose to.be ignorant and not learn the analytics and be proud of that fact.

 

Doesnt matter though.  No matter what you think of the value of analytics... 31 nhl teams explore that information.  

 

Some teams use them more than others but all 31 NHL teams are.

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Is there a stat for forced lateral movements of a goalie? I find this happens much more frequently against than for, and I would wager that scoring percentages increase when the goalie has to move east west.

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1 hour ago, BCHabnut said:

Is there a stat for forced lateral movements of a goalie? I find this happens much more frequently against than for, and I would wager that scoring percentages increase when the goalie has to move east west.

 

I don't think current advanced stats can provide that. Next year, when NHL starts actually measuring puck and player movement, things like this will become measurable, and we'll be able to confirm our hunches with real data. (The data collection is being trialed at the All-Star game, and will be used in the playoffs, and then for all games starting next regular season.)

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1 hour ago, BCHabnut said:

Is there a stat for forced lateral movements of a goalie? I find this happens much more frequently against than for, and I would wager that scoring percentages increase when the goalie has to move east west.

 

There was a study and forcing thenpuck to move side to.side before the shot... "crossing the royal road" does greatly increase the chance of scoring.

 

 

No one is tracking on a team by team basis, at least not publically available stats.  That could change with more puck tracking next year.

 

https://www.msgnetworks.com/2015/03/06/the-royal-road-to-the-future-of-goaltender-analytics/

 

 

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Is there a stat that differentiates between a Nick Cousins and Alex Ovechkin shot in the slot? 

 

It seems like the Habs always have excellent scoring chances but can't convert, but then the opposition merely buries it when given the opportunity. 

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