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DON

GAME#50 Habs vs Knights 7:00 Jan 18 2020

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21 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

He is on LA's cap.   He is not getting paid.... he choose to forego the money on a mutual contract termination... but the cap hit remains cause he's 35+.

So he gave up like 10 million just to get out of LA, and he's only made back about 400,000 of that on his Habs contract. 

 

1 year deal makes the most sense... he can get like 4 million in salary and you can add bonuses to the contract as long as its 1 year.  

There is no such thing as a team option in the NHL.... its either a 1 year deal, or a 2 year deal... no option years. 

 

I really respect Kovy for giving up all that money just so he could play. It's refreshing to see an athlete care a lot more about playing than just the money.  I am really cheering for him. 

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2 hours ago, Chris said:

How long is patient? 

 

8 years not enough? 

 

MT and CJ systems are almost identical, it doesnt work with a small perimeter teams. 

 

 

Wth are you watching? Julien and Therrien's systems couldn't be more different at the moment, Julien evolved and changed his entire system, when they brought in Ducharme, and a whole new coaching staff, into the fast paced, counter attacking transition style we see today. 

 

I don't get the logic behind making up your own versions of reality to prove a point that simply isn't happening. We get it, you want to set fire to everything, remove the coaches the management, the players over 28 years of age, burn it all. But at the end of the day, you aren't being realistic or reasonable in your assessment, you have allowed an extreme negative perception of our situation cloud your opinion from any accuracy, making you very difficult to take seriously at this point.

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11 hours ago, Commandant said:

He is on LA's cap.   He is not getting paid.... he choose to forego the money on a mutual contract termination... but the cap hit remains cause he's 35+.

So he gave up like 10 million just to get out of LA, and he's only made back about 400,000 of that on his Habs contract. 

 

1 year deal makes the most sense... he can get like 4 million in salary and you can add bonuses to the contract as long as its 1 year.  

There is no such thing as a team option in the NHL.... its either a 1 year deal, or a 2 year deal... no option years. 

 

He didn't quite give up $10M.  Most of his money for this season had already been paid via signing bonus so he was only foregoing the league minimum salary which is what the Habs gave him (that was the whole delay in releasing him as he wouldn't agree to it until his bonus was paid).  His $4.25M salary for next year is what he really walked away from.

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19 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Once again, I'm glad you aren't GM of this team.

 

You don't send the kid down who is earning his ice time in the NHL at 19.  If he wasn't playing, it would be different.

The other option I see is trading Domi to Philadelphia for their 1st draft pick. He would fit there nicely and help them get younger and keep feisty 

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10 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

The other option I see is trading Domi to Philadelphia for their 1st draft pick. He would fit there nicely and help them get younger and keep feisty 

 

Yeah.... no

 

Domi is 24 and had over 70 points last year.  Hes on pace for between 55-60 this year 

 

Philly's pick is going to be in the later half of the first round

 

The best case scenario for a first round pick there (happens like 10% of the time) would be to get a first line forward capable of 55-60 points a year.

 

So basically you'd be trading domi while hes still young for a 10% chance of drafting the new domi.

 

Why?

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

Yeah.... no

 

Domi is 24 and had over 70 points last year.  Hes on pace for between 55-60 this year 

 

Philly's pick is going to be in the later half of the first round

 

The best case scenario for a first round pick there (happens like 10% of the time) would be to get a first line forward capable of 55-60 points a year.

 

So basically you'd be trading domi while hes still young for a 10% chance of drafting the new domi.

 

Why?

1) Kotkaniemi and Sozuki need to play at center

2) Danault is still young and valuable, may decline to a 3rd line center if Kotka and Suzuki continue developing

3) The CH has a wealth of winngers and some up and coming centers

4) The CH is in a soft-rebuild and would benefit from more top draft selections, for 2020 they have a bunch of 3rd round picks

5) Domi was a gamble at centre when we got him, like Galchenyuk and Drouin he has produced points there while not being as reliable defensively to warrant the spot unchallenged

6) I would draft for a later half first round pick and use the two first draft picks to move into the top 5 first round picks with a higher chance to get a 70 point forward 

 

Keeping Domi is fine, but I believe the CH would be better served by trading him when his value is high

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You arent getting value for him though.

 

Your are getting back a poece that might be as.good as domi

 

 

As for centres... we are allowed to play four per night.  And 8 wingers.  You keep a 60 point guy who is just 24 in the lineup as one of your building blocks.

 

Tatar who is older and going to be a free agent in 2021 is much more likely to be moved if we have too many forwards.

 

While id sign kovalchuk for one year... hes not a long term answer.

 

Thompson, byron, these guys are going to be gone too.  Weal and Cousins arent long-term solutions.

 

You have room in your forward group for kids without trading domi... and as we have seen this year... injuries happen. So there isnt a huge issue if suzuki is on the wing and moves to centre when injuries happen... you dont want to be in a position where you have 1 player for every position and then one injury kills you.

 

Trading players just to get a first round pick isnt valuable.

 

The first two picks in this draft Lafreniere and Byfield... they arent getting traded.  From 3 on you would be happy tonget a player as good as domi is today... so why trade domi when you already have him... to get a first rounder, which you then will package with your own first rounder to get pick 3, 4, or 5.... its a lot of moves to basically stand still (and you no linger even have your own first rounder)

Chances are if you miss the playoffs the pick at 12 or 13 (currently wed pick 9th).. could be just as good as 3, 4 or 5.  So why give up domi and that 9th pick just to get to 3-5.

 

Its a deep draft from 3 to about 14 or 15

.. no point giving big value to move up.

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You’ve made your point Commandant; and since I know how much better you are at this, I will not argue.

 

But as a fan with a track record of poor player evaluation: I still want either Petry, Tatar or Domi traded this year for draft picks. One of them , preferable Petry.

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Petry and Tatar at their age should be discussed.  They should be traded either this year or next year at the deadline.  They make sense to move at sometime in the next 13 months.

 

Bergevin did this before with pacioretty... he held him until he got the right deal.  Most wanted him traded at then 2018 deadline or at the draft... and he held him another few months to get the right price.

 

The point being its the same with petry and tatar.. if the price is good in february... trade them.  If it isnt.. no pressure... you can keep them another year.

 

Keep in mind both would need to be replaced if traded.

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It took a long time to get a top 4 RD in Petry

Unless Brook is now a forward, we should have two potential top 4 RD in Fleury and Brook.

if we get an upgrade on LD, a top 3,  we can deal Petry 

we will be standing still in défense, but not a big deal if we get high picks in 2020

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Brook isn't even a top 4 in the AHL right now, 

 

I like Fluery, but he is a bottom pair d-man 

 

Romanov will be the LD upgrade next year if he can be signed

 

Assuming MB sticks to his plan, as others have mentioned moving Tatar, Petry and Thompson are all good moves based on return, 

 

Thompson will get a 3rd or 4th, Petry and Tatar are 1st plus a good prospect,  question is can the return fill NHL roster spots 

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15 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

It took a long time to get a top 4 RD in Petry

Unless Brook is now a forward, we should have two potential top 4 RD in Fleury and Brook.

if we get an upgrade on LD, a top 3,  we can deal Petry 

we will be standing still in défense, but not a big deal if we get high picks in 2020

 

There are no guarantees with Fleury and Brook... other than this one... neither will be a top 4 in 2020-21.   You just cant count on them to keep the team "standing still" next season. 

 

I hope they become top 4 D, but banking on that isn't a good idea.   Development is not linear, young players have plateaus and set backs... counting on either of them to be top 4s before 23-24 is a big risk. 

 

Look at Mete... yes, he's survived in a top 4 role, but... he's also been beside one of Weber/Petry when used in that role, and he doesn't look the same on the third pair.  He's also barely surviving as a top 4 not thriving.  He's young and there is still hope he's a top 4, but he's not there yet. 

 

Expecting Brook or Fleury to be a top 4 RD next year... when there is noone of Weber/Petry's calibre on the LH side to pair them and shelter them with... its a foolish recipe. 

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13 minutes ago, Chris said:

Brook isn't even a top 4 in the AHL right now, 

 

I like Fluery, but he is a bottom pair d-man 

 

Romanov will be the LD upgrade next year if he can be signed

 

Assuming MB sticks to his plan, as others have mentioned moving Tatar, Petry and Thompson are all good moves based on return, 

 

Thompson will get a 3rd or 4th, Petry and Tatar are 1st plus a good prospect,  question is can the return fill NHL roster spots 

 

Considering we gave a 5th for Thompson, I don't see how he gets a 3rd or 4th.   If someone offers a 3rd for him, we should take it and run all the way to the bank. 

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Really? Maybe a 5th back is all you get 

 

he is a solid 4th line center 

 

I thought Byron would be another piece to move, i read still no time table for return, had a set back along the recovery route

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3 hours ago, Chris said:

Really? Maybe a 5th back is all you get 

 

he is a solid 4th line center 

 

I thought Byron would be another piece to move, i read still no time table for return, had a set back along the recovery route

 

Oh I agree, he's a very good 4th line centre. 

 

There just isn't much value in 4th liners.... sorry we gave up a 4th for thompson  but it wasn't straight up... it was 4th for Thompson + 5th. 

we got flynn for a fifth... 

we got ott for a sixth

we got torrey mitchell for a 7th and Jack Nevins

we got dwight King for a fourth.

 

Trading players away...

We got a fourth for Deslauriers (but that was a pre-season trade not a deadline rental)

Torrey Mitchell we got a conditional 4th for ... same 4th we gave up for Dwight King


So I don't see how Thompson gets a 4th, but if he does, we should grab it. 

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3 hours ago, Chris said:

Really? Maybe a 5th back is all you get 

 

he is a solid 4th line center 

 

I thought Byron would be another piece to move, i read still no time table for return, had a set back along the recovery route

What's the point of trading 4th liners for 4th/5th round picks?

That is literaly trading a good 4th line center for either of:

McShane, Gorniak, Fonstand, Houde (2018)

Tyszka (2017)

Mete, Staum (2016)

Bradley (2015)

Koberstein, Audette (2014)

Plus Lernout, Weaver, Benn (all who were traded for 4th or 5th round picks)

 

one in 13 turned out to be decent NHLers, Mete (7.7%) 

 

I think the CH should focus on higher returns than what Byron or Thompson would get.

 

 

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You trade Thompson for a 5th, cause he's old and easily replaceable next year, either with Poehling at Centre, or with a cheap free agent. 

 

Byron might get a half decent return if he comes back and shows he is healthy and scoring, that is unlikely before the deadline though, it might be a summer move or one for next year though. 

 

The reason why you trade these guys and not the Domis is cause ... age... and replaceability.... and yeah the chances of a decent NHLer are small but the more of these 4th,5th,6th rounders you have, the more chance you get a gallagher, mete, or other good player.  Timmins actually has a good record in the fifth round... Hudon is a success... anytime you get even one good season out of a fourth round or later, and he had one good year, that's a success.  He's had Dagostini, Grabovski, Halak, Primeau, S. Kostitsyn, Streit, all work out from these spots too. 

 

Even if its only a 5% chance of working, the more picks you can get, while giving up a player who is 35 years old and soon to be UFA, you should still do that.  Its such a different situation from the youngsters and an easy trade to make. 

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Primeau pick #199

Gallagher #147

Mete #100

Fleury #87

 

Is crapshoot and more picks is better.

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On 1/20/2020 at 10:35 PM, DON said:

Primeau pick #199

Gallagher #147

Mete #100

Fleury #87

 

Is crapshoot and more picks is better.

One irreplaceable player in that list.

Picks outside of top 10 are essentially found money if they turn into key roster pieces.

would rather watch a team battle for wildcard year after year then live in Buffalo. 
this year/next years team is better than we give credit for on here.

 

 

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