Habs' prospect pool

[tomh009]

The Athletic's Scott Wheeler finished his NHL prospect pool rankings today -- and placed the Habs' prospect pool as #2, behind only the Kings.

 

The article (as well as the rest of the Athletic content) is well worth the subscription cost, so I will only summarize the ranking here:

 

1. Caufield RW
2. Harris LD
3. Romanov LD
4. Struble LD
5. Poehling C
6. Primeau G
7. Norlinder LD
8. Ylonen LW/RW
9. Brook RD
10. Hillis C
11. Pitlick LW
12. McShane C
13. Fonstad LW
14. Harvey-Pinard LW
15. Stapley C

 

Not ranked (injured):

• Juulsen RD
• Ikonen C
• Olofsson C
• Houde LD
• Teasdale LW
• Fairbrother C

 

Not ranked:

• Kotkaniemi C (in NHL)
• Suzuki C (in NHL)
• Mete LD (in NHL)
• Fleury RD (in NHL)
• Evans C/RW (over 23)
• Vejdemo C (over 23)
• Leskinen LD

 

And that's before all the draft picks stocked up for 2020.

[huzer]

Color me jaded on prospect rankings. I remember '13 when the Habs took "3 first rounders!" with McCarron, De La Rose, and Fucale. The next year Scherbak was a solid late round first pick...

 

I get that all prospects don't work out, even highly touted ones. But every few years someone ranks the Habs pool as top 10, and people go gaga about it.Then one or two players out of 5 draft years make the NHL. It's kind of sad that the only first rounder Montreal has taken that's still playing with the Habs in the NHL is Price...drafted 15 years ago. Hopefully their more recent 1st rounders fair a little better.

 

 

[Commandant]

Its not one person rankong the habs as a top 5 prospect pool though.

 

Its universally across the board from both guys at the athletic, from craig button, from the hockey news, etc..  etc...

 

You can disbelieve it if you want, but when the view is universally held by unbiased experts in the field, it has some value.

[tomh009]

15 minutes ago, huzer said:

It's kind of sad that the only first rounder Montreal has taken that's still playing with the Habs in the NHL is Price...drafted 15 years ago. Hopefully their more recent 1st rounders fair a little better.

 

Kotkaniemi, Poehling and Juulsen are still in the Habs' organization (and will play for the Habs in the future, injuries permitting).

 

Pacioretty, McDonagh, Bealiau and Galchenyuk worked out OK for the organization, even if they did get traded -- that does not diminish the value of the picks.

[huzer]

I'm not disbelieving. I'm skeptical. I'd love nothing more than all of the experts to be correct in their evaluation of all of the Habs prospects. After years of sucking at drafting and developing, it would be nice to see some NHL level results rather than hypothetical rankings.

[Habsfan89]

As it's been said here to discredit "tanking " nothing is guaranteed. Doesn't mean that they will all make the NHL or pan out.

 

But then again we got these prospects from not making the playoffs and giving ourselves a better opportunity to draft a talented player. 

[huzer]

5 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

 

Kotkaniemi, Poehling and Juulsen are still in the Habs' organization (and will play for the Habs in the future, injuries permitting).

 

Pacioretty, McDonagh, Bealiau and Galchenyuk worked out OK for the organization, even if they did get traded -- that does not diminish the value of the picks.

 

KK, Poehling, and Juulsen I put in the "recent" category. I don't expect them to be impact players yet. Seems Juulsen is closer to busting at this point, though (sucks that he got hurt). Two of those picks came from the same year (2007)...so since 2008, the Habs have had 1 depth defenseman and 1 journeyman forward make the NHL from their 1st rounders. That's pretty dismal. Yes, the last 4 years look potentially better with Caufield, KK, Poehling, and Sergachev. Will they all graduate and be MORE than depth? Hopefully.

 

The Habs need a couple of these drafts to be the equivalent of the 2007 draft. 

[tomh009]

8 minutes ago, huzer said:

Two of those picks came from the same year (2007)...so since 2008, the Habs have had 1 depth defenseman and 1 journeyman forward make the NHL from their 1st rounders. That's pretty dismal.

 

2009: Leblanc 22nd (50 games with Habs)

2010: Tinordi 18th (67 games with Habs, Coyotes, Predators)

2011: Beaulieu 17th (356 games with Habs, Sabres, Jets) -- traded for a 3rd

2012: Galchenyuk 3rd (535 games with Habs, Coyotes, Penguins) -- traded for Domi

2013: Scherbak 24th (69 games with Habs)

2014: McCarron 25th (37 games with Habs)

2015: Juulsen 26th

2016: Sergachev 9th (219 games with Habs, Lightning) -- traded for Drouin

 

That's two early picks which yielded two top-six players through trades (Domi and Drouin). And six late picks which have yielded rather less, though Juulsen should be an NHLer, and may yet be if he recovers.

[hab29RETIRED]

1 hour ago, huzer said:

Color me jaded on prospect rankings. I remember '13 when the Habs took "3 first rounders!" with McCarron, De La Rose, and Fucale. The next year Scherbak was a solid late round first pick...

 

I get that all prospects don't work out, even highly touted ones. But every few years someone ranks the Habs pool as top 10, and people go gaga about it.Then one or two players out of 5 draft years make the NHL. It's kind of sad that the only first rounder Montreal has taken that's still playing with the Habs in the NHL is Price...drafted 15 years ago. Hopefully their more recent 1st rounders fair a little better.

 

 

I remember when people here were saying how dalton thrower was a steal.

[hab29RETIRED]

54 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

 

2009: Leblanc 22nd (50 games with Habs)

2010: Tinordi 18th (67 games with Habs, Coyotes, Predators)

2011: Beaulieu 17th (356 games with Habs, Sabres, Jets) -- traded for a 3rd

2012: Galchenyuk 3rd (535 games with Habs, Coyotes, Penguins) -- traded for Domi

2013: Scherbak 24th (69 games with Habs)

2014: McCarron 25th (37 games with Habs)

2015: Juulsen 26th

2016: Sergachev 9th (219 games with Habs, Lightning) -- traded for Drouin

 

That's two early picks which yielded two top-six players through trades (Domi and Drouin). And six late picks which have yielded rather less, though Juulsen should be an NHLer, and may yet be if he recovers.

So, by this list the scouting department struck out on in 

2009,2010. 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2105.

 

2012 was a weird year where one of the start of the year top 5 guys fell (Forsberg) and probably turned out to be the best player.

 

2016 the scouting department made the right pick, but MB blew it on Drouin.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I don't know how prospects are judged in these type of rankings. Are rankings like this done based on becoming an NHL regular or based on their projected career?

 

For example, it would be one thing to say the Habs are ranked second in prospects that project to be top 6 forwards/top 4 dmen and quite another if we were ranked second because we have the most players projected to be regulars in the NHL - even if they will be bottom pair/4th line players.

 

Whatever the case is I'm excited to see Romanov and Caufield in the CH jersey

[huzer]

14 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I remember when people here were saying how dalton thrower was a steal.

 

And Avstin, and Reway, and Collberg...

[Habsfan89]

11 minutes ago, huzer said:

 

And Avstin, and Reway, and Collberg...

Don't forget Hudon , McCarron, Scherbak 

fucale

[Chris]

[Commandant]

7 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

Don't forget Hudon , McCarron, Scherbak 

fucale

 

There is a difference between prospects habs fans have hyped and who independent unbiased sources are hyping.

 

Hudon was never really hyped outside of Habs fans.  Same with Avtsin, thrower, etc.

 

McCarron was a very polarizing prospect who just as many hated as those who loved him.

 

Schebak was a late first rounder, generally regarded as a project.

 

Fucale was a good goalie prospect at 18... but goalies are voodoo and there is a reason why they generally are ranked seperately from skaters.  Cause goalies are voodoo.

 

Collberg was traded for Vanek.  So i dont see how that pick was a problem.  Another team saw him as having value too and he was moved for a high end rental.

 

Reway had a virus develop into a heart condition after being drafted (and while he was leading his team in scoring) is that the habs fault? Same with Bozon.  Are the habs supposed to know that one year after drafting the kid he almost dies of meningitis.

 

Still these were never getting hype around the league like this.

 

The last time the Habs were a top team in terms of prospects it was a group that included price, kostitsyn, chipchura, pacioretty, mcdonagh and subban.   Some worked, some busted, but overall that group was very good and worthy of the hype.  Too bad it lacked a centre.

[tomh009]

25 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I don't know how prospects are judged in these type of rankings. Are rankings like this done based on becoming an NHL regular or based on their projected career?

 

For example, it would be one thing to say the Habs are ranked second in prospects that project to be top 6 forwards/top 4 dmen and quite another if we were ranked second because we have the most players projected to be regulars in the NHL - even if they will be bottom pair/4th line players.

 

In general, it's a combination of having some high-end prospects (Caufield for the Habs -- many teams have none) and a deep pool of prospects that are likely to become NHL regulars, both top-six and bottom-six, for example. The combination of the two is what drove Wheeler to rank the Habs as #2.

[Neech]

Harris above Romanov?  I'll take the grain of salt approach like many in this thread.  I'm surprised teams with at least one clearcut superstar talent not yet in the NHL weren't ranked above us - 14 teams drafted before us last June.  Quantity over quality I suppose.  At any rate, we have to hit big on at least 2-3 more of these guys (and KK) like we have with Suzuki - who, ya know, we didn't draft.  

 

[tomh009]

36 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

So, by this list the scouting department struck out on in 

2009,2010. 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2105.

 

2012 was a weird year where one of the start of the year top 5 guys fell (Forsberg) and probably turned out to be the best player.

 

2016 the scouting department made the right pick, but MB blew it on Drouin.

 

On average, roughly 60% of first-round draft picks become NHL regulars (200+ games played). Setting Juulsen aside, that would be 4.2 NHL regulars for 7 draft years, and we picked 3 (Beaulieu, Galchenyuk and Sergachev). Below average, it seems. But the average is much higher for the low first-round picks, and lower for the high picks so it's a bit closer. Roughly average or a bit worse.

 

That's not considering the picks from later rounds, which are beyond my time to analyze at the moment!

[Commandant]

14 minutes ago, Neech said:

Harris above Romanov?  I'll take the grain of salt approach like many in this thread.  I'm surprised teams with at least one clearcut superstar talent not yet in the NHL weren't ranked above us - 14 teams drafted before us last June.  Quantity over quality I suppose.  At any rate, we have to hit big on at least 2-3 more of these guys (and KK) like we have with Suzuki - who, ya know, we didn't draft.  

 

 

Yeah I think Romanov is even above Caufield at this point (though those two are debatable). 

[Trizzak]

Having read Wheeler's series, I gotta say... yeesh, I'm not sure the Habs belong at 2. One prospect in the top tier? The words "middle six" appear a lot sooner than in other teams' lists. 

 

I'm not particularly impressed with having more 3rd line tweeners than every other team. How excited am I supposed to get that Harris might replace Mete in 3 years? The upside in this pool compared to others drops off immediately after Caufield. That's horrifying.

[Commandant]

2 minutes ago, Trizzak said:

Having read Wheeler's series, I gotta say... yeesh, I'm not sure the Habs belong at 2. One prospect in the top tier? The words "middle six" appear a lot sooner than in other teams' lists. 

 

I'm not particularly impressed with having more 3rd line tweeners than every other team. How excited am I supposed to get that Harris might replace Mete in 3 years? The upside in this pool compared to others drops off immediately after Caufield. That's horrifying.

 

Wheeler is weird, he's very clearly a Leafs fan on twitter and very anti-Habs. 

 

Then he ranks the pools and puts the Habs high.

 

But his writeups massively underrate the prospects themselves.... its really a weird write up. 

 

However, again I go through the whole.  Button has the Habs at 3, and has two glowing reports on Romanov and Caufield, and then good views on Primeau and others. 

 

Pronman is very high on more than a few prospects including again Caufield and Romanov. 

THN had the Habs high as well. 

 

There are others too. 

Personally I'm more looking at the aggregate of how each of these guys is looking at the group, then at one individual report. 

[tomh009]

I'll quote Wheeler on his rationale:

Quote

Ultimately, though, I settled on the Canadiens at No. 2 because they were the team in that group that blended a top-tier prospect with legitimate depth at every position. There were teams in the top-end of the series that had better depth (Ottawa, for example) or teams that had better talent at the top of their lists (Colorado and Anaheim, for example) but I felt that the Canadiens’ pool kind of had everything.

 

Harris has scored 17 goals in 25 games as a 19yo D-man at Northeastern. I have never watched him play, so I'll defer to Wheeler (who has).

 

[Commandant]

I like Harris a lot.  I have him at #3 on my list of prospects.   Especially given how he's played this year at both Northeastern and with Team USA at the WJC. 

 

Just think Romanov is an absolute gem. 

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

Me too...  i think Romanov is #2 behind Primeau but if you include everybody 21 and under...

 

MY TOP 5 PROSPECTS U21

 

1)Suzuki C-  an 80/90 pt guy in the future?

2)Primeau G -Primeau is 2 full seasons away from Prices job

3)Kotkaniemi C- showing real promise in Laval that he will be back before we know it.

4)Romanov D- our #1LD as of next season

5)Caufield W   -Caufield I havent seen enough  

[Commandant]

I have Primeau at 4

 

Romanov

Caufield

Harris

Primeau

Brook