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On 8/22/2020 at 11:54 AM, DON said:

Dont think 9th and 16 ranked prospects would be considered same 'quality' or project the same? Maybe is only slight difference in draft crapshoot?

 

 

 

Today's Athletic has the quote a bit different -- and it makes more sense:

 

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When asked whether the playoff experience his team acquired this year was worth dropping seven spots in the draft to the No. 16 pick overall, Bergevin said he thought there was a good chance the player they would have picked at No. 9 will still be there when the Canadiens are called to the virtual stage. He said this after speaking to Trevor Timmins recently, so he wasn’t just saying that.

 

It seems that Bergevin and Timmins have already zeroed in on the player they want, and that player is ranked below 16th, so there would likely have been no benefit to picking 9th.

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I think we have room for one big contract this offseason, not two.    If I'm looking for a big contract, I'm after a game breaker at wing, not a defenceman.  I think Kulak, Chiarot, Romanov,

See Ryder, Michael

The Under 18 is always a huge tournament that leads to movement in the european prospects IMO.  Especially kids who play in men's leagues predominantly.  You can see some 17 year old who is getting 5

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2 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

 

It seems that Bergevin and Timmins have already zeroed in on the player they want, and that player is ranked below 16th, NOW they have.

 

so there would likely have been no benefit to picking 9th. The obvious goes without saying but...would you want pick in top ten or mid 1st round...no one in the world would say I will go with 16th.

 

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In general, picking earlier is better. But if they really want a guy who is ranked lower than 16, then they can get him with either 9th or 16th pick.

 

I have no idea who it is, and I have no idea whether we can actually get him, and I have no idea whether he's actually worth picking. But that's their logic.

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44 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

 

Today's Athletic has the quote a bit different -- and it makes more sense:

 

 

It seems that Bergevin and Timmins have already zeroed in on the player they want, and that player is ranked below 16th, so there would likely have been no benefit to picking 9th.

Now I'm starting to wonder who it might be.  My guess would be that it would be a prospect ranked in the 20s (by most reputable services) if they seem that confident that they'll get him at 16.  Maybe Gunler or Reichel or a defenseman?

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5 hours ago, tomh009 said:

... It seems that Bergevin and Timmins have already zeroed in on the player they want, and that player is ranked below 16th, so there would likely have been no benefit to picking 9th.

 

So, they know so much more than other teams that they believe the player they rank 9th overall won't get picked in the first 15 picks ... OR ... they have fallen in love with a guy and are VASTLY over-rating him

 

Hockey30 making a biggish deal about Timmins having spoken to Seth Jarvis and his family ... looking at Elite Prospects Jarvis is ranked as high as 11th (Future Considerations) and as low as 29th (ISS Hockey) ... so at 16th he could be a STEAL or a REACH ... if it is even him ... they could also be looking at moving up for a late teens/early 20s pick

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2 hours ago, GHT120 said:

 

So, they know so much more than other teams that they believe the player they rank 9th overall won't get picked in the first 15 picks ... OR ... they have fallen in love with a guy and are VASTLY over-rating him

 

Hockey30 making a biggish deal about Timmins having spoken to Seth Jarvis and his family ... looking at Elite Prospects Jarvis is ranked as high as 11th (Future Considerations) and as low as 29th (ISS Hockey) ... so at 16th he could be a STEAL or a REACH ... if it is even him ... they could also be looking at moving up for a late teens/early 20s pick

Any relation to Doug?

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10 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Any relation to Doug?

 

I don't think so. His dad is Raymond Jarvis, who doesn't appear to be a close relative of Doug, and the family is from Winnipeg, whereas Doug's family was all in southern Ontario.

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47 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

 

I don't think so. His dad is Raymond Jarvis, who doesn't appear to be a close relative of Doug, and the family is from Winnipeg, whereas Doug's family was all in southern Ontario.

Thanks. Was just wondering if this was anothe prospect where interstellar was higher because of blood lines like Tinordi.

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McKeen's Mock Draft (1-19) sends Hendrix Lapierre to Montreal ... he was a Top 10 prospect before an injury plagued 2019/20 season ... but what was feared to be a second concussion (first in 18/19) eventually was found to be a neck issue causing similar symptoms (see this for info on necks/concussions) ... this may make a lot more sense than the numbers indicate

 

 

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Just comparing 2 options for 16th pick.

 

I think someone said Dylan Holloway would also be a good option, but he just missed 2019 draft by a week or so, so he is one of oldest 1st year eligible in the draft.

Ranked #18 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM

Ranked #16 by TSN/McKenzie
 
LaPierre
Ranked #27 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #15 by TSN/McKenzie
 
LaPierrere 11pts in 5gms at Hlinka U18
Holloway 4pts in 7gms at U18
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10 minutes ago, DON said:

Just comparing 2 options for 16th pick.

 

I think someone said Dylan Holloway would also be a good option, but he just missed 2019 draft by a week or so, so he is one of oldest 1st year eligible in the draft.

Ranked #18 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM

Ranked #16 by TSN/McKenzie
 
LaPierre
Ranked #27 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #15 by TSN/McKenzie
 
LaPierrere 11pts in 5gms at Hlinka U18
Holloway 4pts in 7gms at U18

 

Central Scouting ranks them 12th (Holloway) and 13th (Lapierre) amongst NA skaters ... McKenzie ranks them 16th and 15th respectively ... Button gives the advantage to Lapierre (10th vs 14th) ... the Consolidated Ranking has Holloway 17th and Lapierre 20th ... while the April Sportsnet rankings had Holloway 9th and Lapierre 20th.

 

Lapierre is more difficult to evaluate because he missed 20 games in 19/20 and 44 of 63 games this season, and he likely wasn't really "himself" in the 19 games he played last season ... Holloway has the advantage(?) of having played with Caufield at Wisconsin last season if one looks to he future.

 

Overall, I'd be happy with either ... if both are available, Lapierre would seem like the potential home-run pick while Holloway seems safer ... if all the medical info is good on Lapierre I'd go for he home-run.

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26 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Not a fan of Lapeirre at 16... not at all. 

 

Pourquoi (why)?

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38 minutes ago, DON said:

 

Thanks ... good analysis, but only one opinion ... and despite his injury plagued season he is only ranked 7 slots from #16 ... seven slots is a big thing between #2 and #9 but less so by #16 ... may be moot ... that pick may play a role in a major trade if MB is looking for truly high-end talent.

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25 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

Thanks ... good analysis, but only one opinion ... and despite his injury plagued season he is only ranked 7 slots from #16 ... seven slots is a big thing between #2 and #9 but less so by #16 ... may be moot ... that pick may play a role in a major trade if MB is looking for truly high-end talent.

 

The one opinion is MY opinion... that's my website and I'm Ben Kerr..... (note, I'm not saying my opinion is worth more than others, I'm just saying at that site, I've already explained how I feel about the player, so no need to repeat it here). I've watched a lot of junior/college/international etc... hockey to come up with that list and the reports. 

I hope that explains why I have a number of players I'd rather have at 16. 

 

My biggest concern is that this is his third straight season with a major injury that caused him to miss time.  The problem here is two-fold.... 1) obviously recurring injury issues concern anyone.... 2) 3 years ago he was the number 1 pick in the QMJHL draft, the best player in the province.  He isn't anymore.  Others have surpassed him and that's what happens when others are playing and improving and he isn't.  Can he make up for that lack of development time?  I don't know. 

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

My biggest concern is that this is his third straight season with a major injury that caused him to miss time.  The problem here is two-fold.... 1) obviously recurring injury issues concern anyone.... 2) 3 years ago he was the number 1 pick in the QMJHL draft, the best player in the province.  He isn't anymore.  Others have surpassed him and that's what happens when others are playing and improving and he isn't.  Can he make up for that lack of development time?  I don't know. 

 

And this is pretty much the Ikonen situation, too. To expand a bit, the first part may indicate that the player is injury-prone or fragile -- or it may be just an unlucky coincidence (I suspect the latter is the case for Ikonen, don't know Lapierre).

 

But even if it's just bad luck, the player loses time, and it's time that you can't get back. You might be able to recover your trajectory but just one year late -- or you might end up being a role player at a lower level. It's hard to predict but it's a definite risk.

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

I hope that explains why I have a number of players I'd rather have at 16.

 

Let me twist this a little bit ... Bergevin appears confident that their guy (whom they value enough to pick at #9) will still be available at #16. That probably means somebody ranked #20 or lower. Who would fit those criteria?

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

The one opinion is MY opinion... that's my website and I'm Ben Kerr..... (note, I'm not saying my opinion is worth more than others, I'm just saying at that site, I've already explained how I feel about the player, so no need to repeat it here). I've watched a lot of junior/college/international etc... hockey to come up with that list and the reports. 

I hope that explains why I have a number of players I'd rather have at 16. 

 

My biggest concern is that this is his third straight season with a major injury that caused him to miss time.  The problem here is two-fold.... 1) obviously recurring injury issues concern anyone.... 2) 3 years ago he was the number 1 pick in the QMJHL draft, the best player in the province.  He isn't anymore.  Others have surpassed him and that's what happens when others are playing and improving and he isn't.  Can he make up for that lack of development time?  I don't know. 

 

Didn't know it was your website ... I'll have to bookmark it ... as I said,  it was a good analysis and I clearly understood your views ... just saying that it wouldn't be a horrible reach at #16 ... and the lack of development time actually intrigues me as it represents as yet untapped potential

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2 hours ago, tomh009 said:

 

Let me twist this a little bit ... Bergevin appears confident that their guy (whom they value enough to pick at #9) will still be available at #16. That probably means somebody ranked #20 or lower. Who would fit those criteria?

 

I think they might be looking at RHD.

 

Maybe Justin Barron or Brayden Schneider

 

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13 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

I think they might be looking at RHD.

 

Maybe Justin Barron or Brayden Schneider

 

 

My first reaction was that a RHD would be a strange choice ... but upon reflection the Habs have three serious RHD prospects (Brook, Juulsen, Fleury) and two RHD eating up 47-48 minutes for the last four seasons ... but Weber and Petry are aging ... time always wins the race, the question is just when ... and, Weber is just two seasons away from declining actual salary dollars (which may impact whether a then 37 yr-old decides to play) ... makes sense to add another, perhaps higher end, RHD prospect ... having having internal options is always better than having to expend prospects or AAV $$$ on replacements ... Both players would seem to be good additions.

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13 hours ago, Commandant said:

I think they might be looking at RHD.

 

Maybe Justin Barron or Brayden Schneider

 

For anyone else wanting to read up on those two:

 

Barron:

https://lastwordonhockeyprospects.com/2020/05/02/justin-barron-scouting-report/

NHL Central Scouting: 15th (among NA Skaters)
Future Considerations: 33rd
HockeyProspect.com: --
Josh Bell’s February Rankings: 45th
Bob McKenzie’s Mid- Season Rankings: 18th
THW Josh Bell’s February Rankings: --
THW Andrew Forbes’ March Rankings: --
THW Larry Fisher’s March Rankings: --
ISS: 23rd
DobberProspects Mid- Season Rankings: 51st
DraftSite Mock Draft: --

 

Schneider:

https://lastwordonhockeyprospects.com/2020/04/30/braden-schneider-scouting-report/

NHL Central Scouting: 8th (among NA Skaters)
Future Considerations: 27th
HockeyProspect.com: 18th
Bob McKenzie’s Mid-Season Rankings: 14th
THW Josh Bell’s February Rankings: 35th
THW Andrew Forbes’ March Rankings: 27th
THW Larry Fisher’s March Rankings: 28th
ISS: 13th
Dobber Prospects December Rankings: 31st
DraftSite Mock Draft: 15th

 

RHD makes sense as a position, as Weber and Petry are getting older and defencemen take much more time to develop.

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18 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

My first reaction was that a RHD would be a strange choice ... but upon reflection the Habs have three serious RHD prospects (Brook, Juulsen, Fleury) and two RHD eating up 47-48 minutes for the last four seasons ... but Weber and Petry are aging ... time always wins the race, the question is just when ... and, Weber is just two seasons away from declining actual salary dollars (which may impact whether a then 37 yr-old decides to play) ... makes sense to add another, perhaps higher end, RHD prospect ... having having internal options is always better than having to expend prospects or AAV $$$ on replacements ... Both players would seem to be good additions.

 

As we have seen over the past few years, top-pairing defencemen are very hard to secure, and I don't think any of Brook, Juulsen and Fleury project to the top pair, maybe second at best.

 

If Commandant has his analysis right, Schneider has top-pair potential (more of a defensive role than Weber though) and Barron looks like he could be fairly similar. Of course that's the best-case scenario so that chance of a big fat zero is also there. Still, this makes a lot of sense to me.

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1 minute ago, tomh009 said:

 

As we have seen over the past few years, top-pairing defencemen are very hard to secure, and I don't think any of Brook, Juulsen and Fleury project to the top pair, maybe second at best.

 

If Commandant has his analysis right, Schneider has top-pair potential (more of a defensive role than Weber though) and Barron looks like he could be fairly similar. Of course that's the best-case scenario so that chance of a big fat zero is also there. Still, this makes a lot of sense to me.

Agree ... that is where I got once I "unjerked" my knee and gave it some thought ... just have a feeling this may be a VERY interesting draft ... lots of quality players could equate to teams not following the consensus rankings and trades to "get their guy".

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