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Canadiens should offer sheet Sergachev

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9 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

The money would be based as much on a belief in what he *will* do as what he's done ... 

 

That is the way contracts MUST work these days (IMO) in the cap world ... take account of what has been done previously but pay for what you expect the player will do ... That was what worried me about Price's contract ... not certain he would be worth $10.5 AAV in the last half of the contract.

Edited by GHT120

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I know the idea makes sense in terms of targeting a player on a team that's in cap trouble that could help but if memory serves, Sergachev made it known he wasn't happy that the Habs gave up on him so quickly.  Why, then, would he turn around and willingly sign a deal to try to come back three years later? 

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5 hours ago, DON said:

He accepted, signed the offer sheet AND waited for his teams offer to match.

 

Sergachev did?

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

I know the idea makes sense in terms of targeting a player on a team that's in cap trouble that could help but if memory serves, Sergachev made it known he wasn't happy that the Habs gave up on him so quickly.  Why, then, would he turn around and willingly sign a deal to try to come back three years later? 

Because he can potentially more than double what Tampa is willing to pay him.

I’m sure there are other teams that may also throw an offer sheet at him, but let’s say the habs are the only one, or the only one willing to make an offer as high as $8.5m, so you think he’d say no you traded me away, I’d rather take the $3.5m/ye bridge deal Tampa is offering me?  I agree if he has a number of options from teams wanting to offer sheet him for about the same amount than he may choose another team instead. But at the end of the day it is a business decision.

 

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6 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

 

Sergachev did?

He’a talking about the god awful joke of an offer sheet we made to Aho - which ended up being more of a favour to the Canes in getting their top centre signed for a reasonable number early in the summer.

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20 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Because he can potentially more than double what Tampa is willing to pay him.

I’m sure there are other teams that may also throw an offer sheet at him, but let’s say the habs are the only one, or the only one willing to make an offer as high as $8.5m, so you think he’d say no you traded me away, I’d rather take the $3.5m/ye bridge deal Tampa is offering me?  I agree if he has a number of options from teams wanting to offer sheet him for about the same amount than he may choose another team instead. But at the end of the day it is a business decision.

 

I don't think Montreal can go that high knowing that so many players are going to be up for bigger deals in the 2021 offseason, one that won't yield a higher salary cap than it is now by the looks of it.  If you sign Sergachev to that deal, does that mean they can't keep Petry?  Add him to the already inflated AAV and picks to give up and all of a sudden, a bad contract offer gets a whole lot worse while Montreal's upgraded back end becomes a one and done proposition.

 

Tampa has their work cut out for them which makes this an interesting case to watch.  But I can't see a team willing to make Sergachev one of the highest-paid defencemen in the league and give up a boatload of unprotected picks to do it, not in this market.  If the Habs weren't willing to go to that tier for Aho, a much more proven star, they're not doing so here.  Sergachev should take a two-year bridge deal, wait for the new TV deal in the US to be signed which should start ticking the cap up again, and two years from now, take the big money and by then, they should be in better shape to give it to him.  If he can get it now, good for him but I don't think his stock is anywhere near that high yet.

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13 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

The money would be based as much on a belief in what he *will* do as what he's done. The kid is 21 years old and playing over 20 minutes per night on one of the best teams in hockey. Some can say, 'well, his stats are inflated because he plays on Tampa.' But you can just as easily stress how impressive it is that he has imposed himself to such a degree at such a young age upon such a strong roster. When was the last time a crappy franchise like the Habs, so desperate for star youth they throw guys like Mete and KK into key roles way before they're ready, had a 21-year-old playing those kinds of minutes so successfully? You probably have to go back to Subban.

 

So it's a deal made with the view that he will be a top-pairing core piece for the next 10 years at least; an investment.

 

How much Drouin gets paid should be utterly irrelevant to that calculation.

 

I keep hearing statements about how utterly irrelevant Drouin is to the conversation but he’s not irrelevant, simply because everything you said about Sergachev could be said about Drouin and we signed him for 5.5 million. He had drama in Tampa Bay but his raw skill can be that of a franchise player. I saw it during stretches when Drouin was on Tampa. Sergachev is a 9th overall pick but Drouin is a 3rd. The reason you think Drouin is irrelevant to the topic is because you obviously think lower of Drouin than Sergachev. This point is debatable though since Drouin is still young as well. While I didn’t like the trade myself, it wasn’t because Drouin is less skilled or useful, it was because of their positional difference. The point is that Sergachev is not worth 3 million more than Drouin. That’s the only comparison being made here.

 

Commandant’s simple thought about having to overpay for an offer sheet is the main logical rebuttle. I agree with that, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be such an overpayment. I’m never one to talk about money and contracts, but in my opinion there’s a difference between offer sheeting someone like Aho or Hedman, versus offer sheeting a Mikhail Sergachev. Even Aho, some numbers that people suggested we should have offered him were over the top. 
 

And yes, just like you said, it can be argued that Sergachev’s numbers were inflated on a Tampa Bay team. I wouldn’t so much argue that personally, but it’s unfortunately usually the case that player’s numbers drop when they arrive here. There are certainly exceptions (Domi), and I give the opportunity that Sergachev’s numbers alongside Weber could be decent. So it is possible this would be an exception.

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4 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

I don't think Montreal can go that high knowing that so many players are going to be up for bigger deals in the 2021 offseason, one that won't yield a higher salary cap than it is now by the looks of it.  If you sign Sergachev to that deal, does that mean they can't keep Petry?  Add him to the already inflated AAV and picks to give up and all of a sudden, a bad contract offer gets a whole lot worse while Montreal's upgraded back end becomes a one and done proposition.

 

Tampa has their work cut out for them which makes this an interesting case to watch.  But I can't see a team willing to make Sergachev one of the highest-paid defencemen in the league and give up a boatload of unprotected picks to do it, not in this market.  If the Habs weren't willing to go to that tier for Aho, a much more proven star, they're not doing so here.  Sergachev should take a two-year bridge deal, wait for the new TV deal in the US to be signed which should start ticking the cap up again, and two years from now, take the big money and by then, they should be in better shape to give it to him.  If he can get it now, good for him but I don't think his stock is anywhere near that high yet.

Quite frankly, I’d move Petry rather than resign him. We already have one old man on D with a lengthy contract. I don’t see any reason to extend petry.  If we get Sergechev and everything else fall into place and Petry is an important piece, you keep him, rather than add at that deadline and let him walk.  Otherwise you move him at the next deadline.

 

i have zero issues paying a guy I’m hoping and confident will be a top dman $8.5m for 7 years rather than extend Petry and have a potential seabrook situation.

 

if a player has a chance at getting Big money now with front loading and bonuses, I’m pretty sure his preference would be take it now rather than wait a couple not years and risk injury.  Usually when they take the bridge, it’s because they have no options (no arbitration rights) and there is no offer sheet, or younger a real dumb gm like divas who pays you without buying any or enough UFA years.

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6 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

if a player has a chance at getting Big money now with front loading and bonuses, I’m pretty sure his preference would be take it now rather than wait a couple not years and risk injury.  Usually when they take the bridge, it’s because they have no options (no arbitration rights) and there is no offer sheet, or younger a real dumb gm like divas who pays you without buying any or enough UFA years.

 

I'm sure Sergachev's preference would be to get a long-term, big money offer over a bridge deal.  But in a depressed free agent market, the desire to throw an exorbitant offer sheet is going to be less than usual.  Honestly, a one-year offer sheet may be more likely than a five-year one (anything after that likely takes you into the top bracket with the maximum divisor being five) as a result and it would still throw a wrench into Tampa's finances. 

 

Also, don't expect front loading and bonuses to be that popular for a while.  With the expectation of higher escrow for the next several years, the shrewd play may be to backload the deal with the expectation that the escrow percentage at the end will be a lot lower than whatever percentage they wind up negotiating for the next few years.

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10 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I keep hearing statements about how utterly irrelevant Drouin is to the conversation but he’s not irrelevant, simply because everything you said about Sergachev could be said about Drouin and we signed him for 5.5 million. He had drama in Tampa Bay but his raw skill can be that of a franchise player. I saw it during stretches when Drouin was on Tampa. Sergachev is a 9th overall pick but Drouin is a 3rd. The reason you think Drouin is irrelevant to the topic is because you obviously think lower of Drouin than Sergachev. This point is debatable though since Drouin is still young as well. While I didn’t like the trade myself, it wasn’t because Drouin is less skilled or useful, it was because of their positional difference. The point is that Sergachev is not worth 3 million more than Drouin. That’s the only comparison being made here.

 

Commandant’s simple thought about having to overpay for an offer sheet is the main logical rebuttle. I agree with that, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be such an overpayment. I’m never one to talk about money and contracts, but in my opinion there’s a difference between offer sheeting someone like Aho or Hedman, versus offer sheeting a Mikhail Sergachev. Even Aho, some numbers that people suggested we should have offered him were over the top. 
 

And yes, just like you said, it can be argued that Sergachev’s numbers were inflated on a Tampa Bay team. I wouldn’t so much argue that personally, but it’s unfortunately usually the case that player’s numbers drop when they arrive here. There are certainly exceptions (Domi), and I give the opportunity that Sergachev’s numbers alongside Weber could be decent. So it is possible this would be an exception.

 

Drouin is irrelevant to the question of whether we should acquire Sergachev or how much we should pay to get him. You might as well say we can't pay Sergy more than Gallagher. Who cares what Gallagher makes? The point is to acquire the asset that will make your team better.

 

But that, of course, is not how our GM thinks. He will not make this move, not because it's a bad move, but because it will be an admission that the Drouin trade was a bad trade. Which it was. So you are correct that Drouin is relevant - to Bergevin's precious ego. This GM's top priority, I reiterate, is not winning. It's his own ego and his own job.Therefore, I entirely agree, the Habs will not offer sheet Sergachev.

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What are the moves Bergevin refuses to make because of his ego and job?

 

If he was that concerned, he wouldn't be building up the prospect pool, he'd be trading the prospects for quick fixes. 

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38 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

  the Habs will not offer sheet Sergachev.

Of course they wont, they know Sergachev wont sign and Tampa will make moves to get him signed..off load McDonagh's contract perhaps.

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30 minutes ago, Commandant said:

What are the moves Bergevin refuses to make because of his ego and job?

 

If he was that concerned, he wouldn't be building up the prospect pool, he'd be trading the prospects for quick fixes. 

 

He has clearly sold Molson on the plan to develop from within. So no worries there. (I believe Molson, in turn, is mostly happy as long as the dollars flow in and the fan base is mollified - hence the Drouin trade, and hence the hooplah over rookies like Mete and KK, strategically deployed before they are ready for the NHL in order to sell us on hope).

 

We saw who MB really is when he refused to fire his buddies for years despite disastrous results, traded Subban for no reason (even if, fortunately, the trade has worked out owing to Subban's premature aging), told Markov to f**k off despite having no plan to rebuild LD without him, etc.. That's the pattern: ego first. Now maybe he has learned from his mistakes after all. But it's too soon to say that he has; after all, rookies and prospects are unlikely to pose any challenge to his ego the way Markov and Subban did.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

He has clearly sold Molson on the plan to develop from within. So no worries there. (I believe Molson, in turn, is mostly happy as long as the dollars flow in and the fan base is mollified - hence the Drouin trade, and hence the hooplah over rookies like Mete and KK, strategically deployed before they are ready for the NHL in order to sell us on hope).

 

We saw who MB really is when he refused to fire his buddies for years despite disastrous results, traded Subban for no reason (even if, fortunately, the trade has worked out owing to Subban's premature aging), told Markov to f**k off despite having no plan to rebuild LD without him, etc.. That's the pattern: ego first. Now maybe he has learned from his mistakes after all. But it's too soon to say that he has; after all, rookies and prospects are unlikely to pose any challenge to his ego the way Markov and Subban did.

I would add the idiotic bridge deal with Subban, when every other GM was rushing to sign their players long term before the new CBA was done.  The other team who played hardball - the Avs ended up having their guy (O’Reilly) offer sheeted and also eventually traded because of the toxic relationship with management.

 

i still shake my head over signing Karl fxcking Alzner over Markov.  Alzner was the character guy who was so desperately needed.  Funny thing is when he came here, he was asked why the caps couldn’t get over the hump and he said there were Issues in the dressing room.  Turned Out he was right.  They just needed to get rid of him!!

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3 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

We saw who MB really is when he refused to fire his buddies for years despite disastrous results, traded Subban for no reason (even if, fortunately, the trade has worked out owing to Subban's premature aging), told Markov to f**k off despite having no plan to rebuild LD without him, etc.. That's the pattern: ego first [...]

 

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I would add the idiotic bridge deal with Subban, when every other GM was rushing to sign their players long term before the new CBA was done.  The other team who played hardball - the Avs ended up having their guy (O’Reilly) offer sheeted and also eventually traded because of the toxic relationship with management [...]

 

I see you are both in a fighting mood :)

 

If only Hockey was back so that we could debate a new topic instead of :hammer:beating :hammer: this ☠️ dead ☠️  🐴 horse 🐴

 

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24 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

 

I see you are both in a fighting mood :)

 

If only Hockey was back so that we could debate a new topic instead of :hammer:beating :hammer: this ☠️ dead ☠️  🐴 horse 🐴

 

 

Well, I was asked why I think MB puts his ego before winning...can't explain why I think that without referencing the past, unfortunately.

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52 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Well, I was asked why I think MB puts his ego before winning...can't explain why I think that without referencing the past, unfortunately.

I guess we should just answer those types of questions like a 5 year old and just say “because”

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16 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Quite frankly, I’d move Petry rather than resign him. We already have one old man on D with a lengthy contract. I don’t see any reason to extend petry ...

 

*** I *** would trade Weber, not Petry ... but (IMO) MB has tied his trailer to Weber and Price and trading them is admitting he failed ... unless the return is so ridiculously high he can't in any way be criticized (e.g., this year's first overall ... which won't happen) ... Weber has less value to trade but also (IMO) less value to the team ... and he doesn't have a NTC of any sort (Petry has a 15 team list to which he cannot be traded without his permission ... and teams were not allowed to incentivize a player to waive).

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49 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

*** I *** would trade Weber, not Petry ... but (IMO) MB has tied his trailer to Weber and Price and trading them is admitting he failed ... unless the return is so ridiculously high he can't in any way be criticized (e.g., this year's first overall ... which won't happen) ... Weber has less value to trade but also (IMO) less value to the team ... and he doesn't have a NTC of any sort (Petry has a 15 team list to which he cannot be traded without his permission ... and teams were not allowed to incentivize a player to waive).

I think they should trade Weber and Price, but as long as MB is here neither will happen. Without enough talent around them, they’ll just age and decline and we will continue on the perpetual hamster wheel Of mediocrity.  I like the direction the rangers took.  Quick year down and rebuild is progressing. They’ll probably cut ties with Lundquist as well.

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8 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

He has clearly sold Molson on the plan to develop from within. So no worries there. (I believe Molson, in turn, is mostly happy as long as the dollars flow in and the fan base is mollified - hence the Drouin trade, and hence the hooplah over rookies like Mete and KK, strategically deployed before they are ready for the NHL in order to sell us on hope).

 

We saw who MB really is when he refused to fire his buddies for years despite disastrous results, traded Subban for no reason (even if, fortunately, the trade has worked out owing to Subban's premature aging), told Markov to f**k off despite having no plan to rebuild LD without him, etc.. That's the pattern: ego first. Now maybe he has learned from his mistakes after all. But it's too soon to say that he has; after all, rookies and prospects are unlikely to pose any challenge to his ego the way Markov and Subban did.

 

He offered Markov a one year deal, Markov held out for 2. In hindsight, seeing how Markov had one good year in the KHL before dropping off like a rock, was that ego or not overpaying for a player who was close to the end of his career?  

 



 

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13 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

He offered Markov a one year deal, Markov held out for 2. In hindsight, seeing how Markov had one good year in the KHL before dropping off like a rock, was that ego or not overpaying for a player who was close to the end of his career?  

 



 

 

Well, it was either ego, or being hyper risk-averse. The decision left us with a crater on LD we have yet to fill. And it's not like he found other uses for the cap space. 🙄

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15 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

He offered Markov a one year deal, Markov held out for 2. In hindsight, seeing how Markov had one good year in the KHL before dropping off like a rock, was that ego or not overpaying for a player who was close to the end of his career?  

 



 

Better than overpaying for a UFA for 5 years, when that guy didn’t even have one decent year left.

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Just now, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Well, it was either ego, or being hyper risk-averse. The decision left us with a crater on LD we have yet to fill. And it's not like he found other uses for the cap space. 🙄


Markov probably would have helped in 2017-18
 

That spot would still be a crater the past two seasons, only it would be sad watching Markov who is no longer an NHL player, skate around in that crater for one of those years. 

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1 minute ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Well, it was either ego, or being hyper risk-averse. The decision left us with a crater on LD we have yet to fill. And it's not like he found other uses for the cap space. 🙄

He did. He decided to overpay a guy who isn’t fit to clean Markov’s jock strap. Only it’s for 5 years, instead of the two Markov wanted.

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Just now, hab29RETIRED said:

Better than overpaying for a UFA for 5 years, when that guy didn’t even have one decent year left.

 

The 1 year offer was still on the table after signing Alzner. 

The plan was to sign Alzner and one of Markov (1 year) or Radulov (long-term).

 

Radulov went to Dallas.

 

They waited on Markov for a month, and he never agreed to 1 year, and then they signed Streit when Markov went to Russia. 

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