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Phozzwald

Draft Lottery results nothing but a win for the Habs

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Anytime you have a shot at the number one pick, it’s an exciting feeling. It’s the consolation prize for not making the Stanley Cup Playoffs. However, for the Canadiens, they get the best of both worlds. The Habs are currently set to play the Pittsburgh Penguins in a five-game series to determine which of them will get the chance to fight for Lord Stanley’s Cup. Had the season not been cut short, the Canadiens had less than a two percent chance of making the playoffs. Now their odds are basically 50 percent because all they need to do is beat the team in front of them. That’s a huge win for the Habs. There are so many scenarios that could play out here for the Canadiens. Each of them seems to be a win in some way shape or form for the Habs.

 

More here:

 

https://lastwordonhockey.com/2020/06/28/results-nhl-draft-lottery-win-montreal-canadiens/

 

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Posted (edited)

IMO it is a huge LOSS for the Habs as they need the #1, or even #9, pick far more than the few playoff games they would likely play if they beat the Pens.

 

The 6-7 young (25 or under) players who will be important to the team in the next few years would admittedly get the benefit of "playoff hockey" but IMO adding more top-end talent is more important as the team is still several pieces away from being a Cup contender.

Edited by GHT120

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2 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

IMO it is a huge LOSS for the Habs as they need the #1, or even #9, pick far more than the few playoff games they would likely play if they beat the Pens.

 

The 6-7 young (25 or under) players who will be important to the team in the next few years would admittedly get the benefit of "playoff hockey" but IMO adding more top-end talent is more important as the team is still several pieces away from being a Cup contender.

 

That's why it's a huge win though. A place holder team won the lottery, therefore the Canadiens have an equal chance at Lafreniere IF they lose the play in series. Thats a huge win. Had the season gone on, they would not have won the lottery as they wouldnt have been team E and their position would have been set in stone. If they don't win phase two of the lottery, they automatically get 9th pick, as they are the lowest seed of the play-in teams. If the season does not end up starting back up, the Canadiens are still in the lottery and still have that shot at 1st or at worst 9th. If they do win against Pittsburgh we get Habs playoff hockey, which of course is a win for the fans as we havent been able to watch them in the playoffs since 2017. However, in the long-run, yes it would be much better to get Lafreniere if they could not win the cup this season. Obviously, winning the cup is extremely difficult even for the best teams, and the Habs are heading in as the 24th seed, so theyre not expected to do much. However, whatever way you look at it, and whatever happens, the Canadiens are rewarded. Either 1st, 9th, or the Playoffs. Cant say thats a bad thing

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If it was a normal 16 team playoff (based on pts %), and this lottery....

 

Winnipeg would have the 1st overall pick and Montreal would pick 9th....

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2 hours ago, Phozzwald said:

 

That's why it's a huge win though. A place holder team won the lottery, therefore the Canadiens have an equal chance at Lafreniere IF they lose the play in series. Thats a huge win. Had the season gone on, they would not have won the lottery as they wouldnt have been team E and their position would have been set in stone. If they don't win phase two of the lottery, they automatically get 9th pick, as they are the lowest seed of the play-in teams. If the season does not end up starting back up, the Canadiens are still in the lottery and still have that shot at 1st or at worst 9th. If they do win against Pittsburgh we get Habs playoff hockey, which of course is a win for the fans as we havent been able to watch them in the playoffs since 2017. However, in the long-run, yes it would be much better to get Lafreniere if they could not win the cup this season. Obviously, winning the cup is extremely difficult even for the best teams, and the Habs are heading in as the 24th seed, so theyre not expected to do much. However, whatever way you look at it, and whatever happens, the Canadiens are rewarded. Either 1st, 9th, or the Playoffs. Cant say thats a bad thing

Understood ... But three wins against Pittsburgh (be they well-earned or lucky) and suddenly the Habs draft 16th

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On 6/29/2020 at 9:16 PM, GHT120 said:

Understood ... But three wins against Pittsburgh (be they well-earned or lucky) and suddenly the Habs draft 16th

Yes, and they also won versus Pittsburgh in that scenario which is the purpose of hockey. 

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4 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Yes, and they also won versus Pittsburgh in that scenario which is the purpose of hockey. 

But perhaps not what is best for the franchise long-term.

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31 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

But perhaps not what is best for the franchise long-term.

Why, is a Sanderson, Holtz or Quinn picked at 9 guaranteed to make one bit of difference in long run? And again, the draft results wont even be a consideration for any players/coaches, if this gong show does fire up in next month.

Perhaps a great showing by defeating Pens and doing well in next round may encourage UFAs to see Montreal as a more preferred destination than has been, which may be big for long run and maybe a Krug decides to sign there knowing he will be 1st pairing partnered with Weber or Petry, for example.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DON said:

Why, is a Sanderson, Holtz or Quinn picked at 9 guaranteed to make one bit of difference in long run? And again, the draft results wont even be a consideration for any players/coaches, if this gong show does fire up in next month.

Perhaps a great showing by defeating Pens and doing well in next round may encourage UFAs to see Montreal as a more preferred destination than has been, which may be big for long run and maybe a Krug decides to sign there knowing he will be 1st pairing partnered with Weber or Petry, for example.

 

Totally agree it means nothing to players and coaches ... and you are correct that nothing is guaranteed with a draft pick ... but what is guaranteed with the current roster (absent KK and Suzuki becoming elite players) is the eternal scramble for 7/8th place by a pretender that (IMO) lacks 2/3 of a legit top line to be a reasonable Cup contender (i.e., not one of the elite contenders but not a pretender either) ... Gallagher being the exiting 1/3 ... so any means of adding high-end talent may either fill those holes OR provide depth to make trades ... and losing to the Pens also gives the Habs a shot at an elite talent to fill one of those top line holes

 

As for play-in/playoff success influencing UFAs, IMO it would not only take actually making the playoffs by beating the Pens, but also then at least winning the first round and having a strong showing in the second round before it would make a tiny shred of difference in UFAs looking at Montreal ... as for Krug, if being paired with Petry or Weber influences Krug that is most likely true regardless of how the team does against Pittsburgh.

 

But this is a matter or perspective and not an absolute ... either way

Edited by GHT120

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7 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 losing to the Pens also gives the Habs a shot at an elite talent to fill one of those top line holes

I cant bring myself to even consider getting the French kid at #1. 87% chance wouldn't get him, even losing to Pens, so wont get my hopes up.

 

Picking at 9 or 16 should be getting a good player... but all-star...unlikely.

 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, DON said:

I cant bring myself to even consider getting the French kid at #1. 87% chance wouldn't get him, even losing to Pens, so wont get my hopes up.

 

Picking at 9 or 16 should be getting a good player... but all-star...unlikely.

 

I buy lottery tickets, so I will dream ... but from what I've heard about the tranches of high-end talent (e.g., Lafreniere, then Byfield and Drysdale, then 4-7 and finally 8-12) leaves quite a difference between #9 and #16

 

PLUS

 

Any success might just get MB an extension and as I've had it with Bergevin

Edited by GHT120

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11 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

I buy lottery tickets..  Why would any intelligent person do that, is illogical at best?

 

 

 

Any success might just get MB an extension and as I've had it with Bergevin...BUT i bet you have absolutely no successor in mind and is simply grass is greener attitude with "somebody" else has to be better. Heard the same with Therrien and oh goodie another retread in Julien, who has been exact same or worse.

 

So who you got? Roy...Macguire...who else speaks French and could fit the bill as GM? Same as coach, who else is there, pretty shallow pool to pick from for either position?

 

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5 minutes ago, DON said:

 

So who you got? Roy...Macguire...who else speaks French and could fit the bill as GM? Same as coach, who else is there, pretty shallow pool to pick from for either position?

 

 

Roy and McGuire (as you cite), and others  have a clean slate and have not prove they can't build the team into a contender ... I'd roll the dice on either of them at this point ... not having a new girlfriend lined up is no reason to stay in a miserable relationship.

 

I have felt for some time that the team needs a French speaking President/Vice-President of Hockey Operations and then task them to hire the best available GM, regardless of language ... the P/VP can join the GM for press conferences and provide the majority of the fanbase with feedback in their native language thgat it is (IMO) reasonable for them to expect.

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But, am not a big hater or fan of Bergevin, but change for sake of change doesn't seem to work. And I think firing the GM is quite low on Molson's things to do.

Hope there are some smart French fellows out there to replace both GM and coach at some point, but haven't heard legit options being tossed around.

At least Bergevin is quite conservative and hasn't had any Milbury-like brain-cramps.

BUT, Alzner was horrible pro scouting for sure, Sergachev looks to be a huge loss (with tinge of homerism for French Canadian) and lack of any plan B for Radulov-Markov are most recent glaring failures.

 

Oh and I don't put much stock in creating a president's job to oversee, seems overkill.

 

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14 minutes ago, DON said:

But, am not a big hater or fan of Bergevin, but change for sake of change doesn't seem to work. And I think firing the GM is quite low on Molson's things to do.

Hope there are some smart French fellows out there to replace both GM and coach at some point, but haven't heard legit options being tossed around.

At least Bergevin is quite conservative and hasn't had any Milbury-like brain-cramps.

BUT, Alzner was horrible pro scouting for sure, Sergachev looks to be a huge loss (with tinge of homerism for French Canadian) and lack of any plan B for Radulov-Markov are most recent glaring failures.

 

Oh and I don't put much stock in creating a president's job to oversee, seems overkill.

 

In this case my idea for having a President is (a) to have an actual hockey person as the GM's direct report (Molson grew up around hockey but is not a "hockey person") , and (b) to be the French face for the media to allow for a unilingual Anglo (to expand the pool of candidates).

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I am not sure why people would want to end an entire season by losing or tanking for a single player. Winning games is something the team can control, where we end up in the draft is something nobody can control. Furthermore, there’s even a chance that a second round player becomes more valuable than a first rounder. It’s never that a single first round draft pick is guaranteed to completely change the future of your entire organization. Unless it’s a 1st or 2nd overall, and even then. 
 

The impact of the Habs winning against the Penguins is immeasurable. Perhaps a freak hot streak from a player like Drouin (or Domi) in this play-in and playoff completely change their careers. Perhaps Carey Price has the best playoff of his career. Perhaps Suzuki and KK gain invaluable experience of playoff level hockey which can serve them in the future.

 

I think the positive impact that a long playoff run, or even a play-in win against the Pittsburgh Penguins could outweigh the positive impact of drafting one player. We just drafted players like Galchenyuk and Kotkaniemi high in drafts and we are supposed to lose entire seasons for players like that?

 

If we lose, we have the bonus of having a chance at Lafreniere. It will be a nice consolation at that point. Thus the win-win. That’s it, that’s all. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I am not sure why people would want to end an entire season by losing or tanking for a single player. Winning games is something the team can control, where we end up in the draft is something nobody can control. Furthermore, there’s even a chance that a second round player becomes more valuable than a first rounder. It’s never that a single first round draft pick is guaranteed to completely change the future of your entire organization. Unless it’s a 1st or 2nd overall, and even then. 
 

The impact of the Habs winning against the Penguins is immeasurable. Perhaps a freak hot streak from a player like Drouin (or Domi) in this play-in and playoff completely change their careers. Perhaps Carey Price has the best playoff of his career. Perhaps Suzuki and KK gain invaluable experience of playoff level hockey which can serve them in the future.

 

I think the positive impact that a long playoff run, or even a play-in win against the Pittsburgh Penguins could outweigh the positive impact of drafting one player. We just drafted players like Galchenyuk and Kotkaniemi high in drafts and we are supposed to lose entire seasons for players like that?

 

If we lose, we have the bonus of having a chance at Lafreniere. It will be a nice consolation at that point. Thus the win-win. That’s it, that’s all. 

 

 

 

The chance of a crazy hot streak supercharging a career is no more likely, perhaps even less, than a well researched top 10 draft pick having an impact ... Galchenyuk excluded as he was from what is generally considered the worst draft class of the last decade or more (bad timing there for the Habs) ... 

 

And the impact being immeasurable means equally it could be nothing or something significant ... it is all a roll of the dice ... I get where you are coming from but when I look at the composition of the team I just don't see much potential for players to be much more than they already are ... except for Suzuki (who I see becoming a legit top liner, but not necessarily elite ... only time will tell) and KK (who needs another couple of years to be able to really project) ... for that reason I prefer to go with accumulating as many highly drafted players as possible, to increase odds hitting the jackpot (which doesn't ignore the possibility that a 2nd/3rd rounder surprises ... but it is less likely) ... I fear a play-in win sends the habs to #16 (or worse if they get lucky a couple of more times) which from all I have heard is outside the range for the players projected to have a true impact ... 

 

But these are both opinions ... no right or wrong

 

 

Edited by GHT120

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